2017-10-10
Wave summary:
We continue to look for resistance at 132.77 and more importantly resistance at 132.89 to cap the upside for a decline below minor support at 131.70 that will call for a decline towards at least 130.37 and possibly lower.
Should resistance at 132.89 be broken, that would call for a continuation higher to 133.25 before turning lower again.
R3: 133.25
R2: 133.89
R1: 132.77
Pivot: 132.50
S1: 132.41
S2: 132.16
S3: 131.94
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 133.00 with stop placed at 132.80. If you are not short-EUR yet, then sell near 132.77 and use the same stop at 132.80.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 10, 2017
2017-10-10
Wave summary:
EUR/NZD should soon take out the "old" top at 1.6690 for a continuation higher towards 1.6712 and after a minor consolidation, a continuation higher to 1.7038 should be expected. Support is now seen at 1.6561, which ideally will protect the downside for the rally to 1.6712. Should a break below 1.6561 be seen, that will extend the correction lower to support at 1.6487 before moving higher again.
R3: 1.6763
R2: 1.6712
R1: 1.6690
Pivot: 1.6650
S1: 1.6627
S2: 1.6561
S3: 1.6487
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6365 and will move our stop higher to 1.6465. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 1.6561 and use the same stop at 1.6465.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 10, 2017
2017-10-10
Overview:
The USD/CHF pair faced a major resistance at the level of 0.9785 because the double top is set around the area of 0.9785/0.9845. Consequently, the strong resistance has already been formed at the level of 0.9785 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the spot of 0.9785/0.9845, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance levels of 0.9785 or 0.9845 (resistance 2). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below the spot of 0.9785/0.9845 so it will be good to sell at 0.9785 with the first target at 0.9707. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9846. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9603. On the other hand, the stop loss should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 0.9845 (major resistance).
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for October 10, 2017
2017-10-10
EUR/USD has been quite corrective and volatile recently in a bearish trend which is currently residing below 1.1800 price level. Recently EUR has been quite positive with the economic reports whereas USD was found having series of negative reports ahead of Rate Hike in December. NFP report was unable to help USD on Friday due to its worse report whereas another positive report could not help the currency to maintain its gains against EUR. Today EUR German Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to show growth to 19.8B from the previous value of 19.5B, French Industrial Production report is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.5%, Italian Industrial Production report is expected to be unchanged at 0.1% and ECOFIN meeting is going to be held today which is expected to be neutral in nature. On the USD side, after the observance of Columbus Day, today NFIB Small Business Index report is going to be published which is expected to have slight decrease to 105.1 from the previous figure of 105.3, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism report is expected to show a rise to 54.2 from the previous figure of 53.4 and FOMC Member Kashkari is going to speak today about nation's key interest and future monetary policies which are expected to be quite neutral in nature. As of the current scenario, EUR is quite stronger in nature with the economic reports and have positive forecasts as well whereas USD is struggling to make any gains with the mixed economic reports. USD is expected to quite weak in nature until the December FOMC meeting and Rate hike, until then EUR is expected to have steady gains over USD in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing at the edge of 1.1800 resistance level which is expected to reach 1.1620 support level in the coming days. As of the bearish trend in place, the price is expected to progress downward as the price remains below 1.20 resistance area.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 10, 2017
2017-10-10
Overview:
Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7128 towards 0.7087. Now, the price is set at 0.7069 to act as a minor support. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.7128 and 0.7040 in coming hours. Furthermore, the price has been set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.7169 and 0.7220, which coincides with the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level respectively. Additionally, the price is in a bearish channel now. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend. From this point, the NZD/USD pair is continuing in a bearish trend from the new resistance of 0.7128. Thereupon, the price spot of 0.7128/0.7087 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will have downside momentum is rather convincing and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate a bearish opportunity below 1.0020, sell below 0.7128 or 0.7087 with the first targets at 0.7040 and 0.7000 (support 3). However, the stop loss should be located above the level of 0.7169.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for October 10, 2017
2017-10-10
NZD/USD is under pressure and expected to continue the downside movement. The pair is under pressure below the key resistance at 0.7085 (the high of Oct. 9). The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is bearish and calls for another downside.
To sum up, as long as 0.7085 is not surpassed, look for a new test with targets at 0.7030 and 0.7000 in extension.
The black line is showing the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 0.7120, 0.7145, and 0.7170
Support levels: 0.7030, 0.7000, and 0.6955
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for October 10, 2017
2017-10-10
GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 147.80. The pair is holding firmly above its nearest support at 147.80. Both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are turning up, and should call for further advance. Besides, the relative strength index is mixed to bullish.
In these perspectives, as long as 147.80 holds on the downside, look for a new rise to 148.55 and 149.00 in extension.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 147.80 with the target at 147.40.
Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 147.80, Take Profit: 148.55
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 148.558, 149.00 and 149.55
Support levels: 147.40, 146.95, and 146.10
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for October 10, 2017
2017-10-10
USD/JPY has been residing inside a large corrective structure for a few months. The price has been quite volatile recently as well. For last few days, the price has not shown any progress in any direction rather than certain rejections on both side of the market indicating confused market sentiment in the market. Today, Japan's Current Account report was published which showed an increase to 2.27T from the previous figure of 2.03T which was expected to be at 1.98T and Economic Watchers Sentiment report also showed an increase to 51.3 from the previous figure of 49.7 which was expected to be at 49.9. On the USD side, today NFIB Small Business Index report is going to be published which is expected show a slight decrease to 105.1 from the previous figure of 105.3, IBP/TIPP Economic Optimism report is expected to show an increase to 54.2 from the previous figure of 53.4, and FOMC Member Kashkari is going to speak today about nation's key interest rates and monetary policies, his stance is expected to be neutral in nature. The mixed results of the economic reports might lead to further weakness of USD against JPY. Japan's upbeat economic reports are to facilitate further gains in this pair. USD is expected to be quite weaker against JPY until the US comes up with some positive fundamental data or events in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing in a corrective range whereas the bullish rejections are quite larger than the bearish rejection. This signals that the price is expected to show some bearish move after the break of the range. The pair has been residing inside the corrective structure between 108.30 and 114.30 area for last few months where the current market situation indicates further bearish pressure inside the corrective structure. Currently, the price is expected to reach 110.60 support level in the coming days. Later, if the price break below 110.60 with a daily close, then we will be looking forward for the price to move down towards 108.30 in the future. As the price remains below the previous daily spike high of 113.50, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 10, 2017
2017-10-10
USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook above 0.9755. The pair posted a rebound from 0.9755 and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is supported by a bullish trend line.
Therefore, as long as 0.9755 is not broken, a further upside to 0.9815 and even 0.9835 (the high of Oct. 6) seems more likely to occur.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9755, Take Profit: 0.9815
Resistance levels: 0.9815, 0.9835, and 0.9870
Support levels: 0.9730, 0.9700, and 0.9660
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 10, 2017
2017-10-10
USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Despite the recent pullback, the pair is still supported by a rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is mixed with bullish bias. Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Therefore, above 112.30, look for a further advance with targets at 112.90 and 113.10 in extension.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 112.30 with a target at 112.10.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.30, Take Profit: 112.90
Resistance levels: 112.90, 113.10 and 113.50 Support Levels: 112.10, 111.80, 111.50
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for October 10, 2017
2017-10-10
EUR/JPY has been quite volatile recently since the NFP report hit the market on Friday. The pair has shown equal amount of pressure from the bullish and bearish participants of the market, but bulls took charge with steady gains in the market. Today, German Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 21.6B from the previous figure of 19.3B which was expected to be at 19.8B, French Industrial Production report was published with a negative value of -0.3%, worse than the previous value of 0.8% which was expected to be at 0.4%, Italian Industrial Production report is yet to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.1%, and later ECOFIN Meeting is expected to take place which is expected to be quite neutral in nature. On the JPY side, today Current Account report showed a significant increase to 2.27T from the previous figure of 2.03T which is expected to be at 1.98T and Economic Watchers Sentiment was also positive with an increase to 51.3 from the previous figure of 49.7 which was expected to have a slight increase to 49.9. To sum up, EUR has been quite mixed in light of the economic reports which capped the recent gains of EUR against JPY. Japan's economic reports today had positive outcome that is expected to help JPY gain further against EUR in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently being rejected off the rising channel as resistance which the price has already responded with a bullish rejection earlier. Before the price came into the rising channel, the pressure was significantly bearish. Judging by the basic trend continuation theory, the price is expected to trade under bearish pressure. As the price remains below 133 resistance area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
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