2017-10-11
GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook above 147.80. The pair has turned up and is likely to continue a new rebound. The rising 20-period and 50-period moving averages play well support roles. Besides, the relative strength index is bullish, calling for further upside.
Therefore, as long as 147.80 is not broken, look for a further advance to 149 and 149.50 in extension.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended below 147.80 with the target at 147.40.
Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 147.80, Take Profit: 149.0
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 149.00, 149.50 and 150.05
Support levels: 147.40, 146.90, and 146.10
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 11, 2017
2017-10-11
USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Although the pair made a pullback, it is still trading above its rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.
Therefore, as long as 112.15 is support, a further upside to 112.55 and even to 112.80 seems more likely to occur.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a short position is recommended below 112.15 with a target at 111.95.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 112.15, Take Profit: 112.55
Resistance levels: 112.55, 112.80 and 113.15 Support Levels: 111.95, 111.65, 111.35
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 11, 2017
2017-10-11
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend reversed when the Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, an evident bullish breakout is being witnessed on the chart. The next Supply level to meet the pair is located around 1.2100 (Level of previous multiple bottoms) where bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry can be anticipated.
On the other hand, If the current bearish breakout persists below 1.1800 (the depicted uptrend line) and 1.1700, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 where BUY entries can be offered.
Trade Recommendations
Bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.1835-1.1850 (the backside of the broken uptrend line) should be considered for a valid SELL entry.
S/L should be placed above 1.1950.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for October 11, 2017
2017-10-11
Daily Outlook
In February 2017, the depicted short-term downtrend was initiated around the depicted supply zone (0.7310-0.7380).
However, a recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
The price zone of 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) stood as a temporary resistance zone until a bullish breakout was expressed above 0.7230.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards the next supply zone around 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
The recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating a high probability of bearish reversal.
Bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 confirms the reversal pattern. Next bearish targets are located around 0.7050, 0.6925 and eventually 0.6800.
On the other hand, the price level of 0.7050 should be watched for bullish pullbacks before further bearish decline can occur.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for October 11, 2017
2017-10-11
USD/CHF has been volatile with bullish gains that is expected to come to an end as bearish pressure is already emerging in the market now. USD has been quite mixed amid economic reports for the last few weeks which have helped the American currency to develop a corrective volatile bullish bias. But recent positive economic reports from Switzerland engulfed the recent bullish pressure. Yesterday, Switzerland's Unemployment Rate was published with a decline to 3.1% from the previous value of 3.2% that helped the currency to gain good momentum against USD with a further bearish move in the future. On the USD side, NFP report dealt a blow to the currency on Friday. Since then, USD has not recovered yet due to the recent holiday in the market. Meanwhile, the positive unemployment report from Switzerland helps CHF to gain ground against USD. Today, FOMC Member Kaplan spoke about further monetary policy which is expected to see a hike in December. Besides, US JOLTS Job Opening report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 6.13M from the previous figure of 6.17M. To sum up, CHF is expected to gain good momentum in the coming days against USD which is also expected to provide a proper push to the pair to have impulsive bearish pressure in the coming days. USD has softened amid the downbeat nonfarm payrolls. So until the US comes up with positive economic reports or events to help the currency gain momentum, the pair is expected to be bearish further in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA with an engulfing candle of the last day which has shown evidence of impulsive bearish pressure in the coming. As the price remains below 0.9770, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for October 11, 2017
2017-10-11
Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair looks to have terminated its first leg labelled as A, within its 3 waves A-B-C corrective rally towards 1.1900/30 levels going forward. A short-term chart view presented here already suggests that the pair should be now looking to drop lower terminating into wave B around 1.1730 levels before turning bullish again. Please note that an interim resistance is just in place at 1.1844 levels and that the pair is poised to break below its counter trend line support as well. Furthermore, note that the previous trend line resistance turned support trend line is now passing near the fibonacci 0.618 support levels of the entire rally between 1.1670 through 1.1844 levels respectively. A simple trading strategy that could be deployed from this point is to sell on rallies.Expecting a quick snap drop towards 1.1720 levels before the larger counter trend rally resumes.
Trading plan:
Please remain short now, look to add more towards 1.1920/30 levels, stop above 1.2092, target 1.1500.This is a long-term strategy; we shall update short-term strategies tomorrow.
US Dollar Index chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar Index has dropped lower pretty close to its support around 93.00 levels as depicted on the short-term chart setup here. The index seems to have terminated its first corrective drop into wave A as labelled here. The most probable wave count should be higher towards wave B, which is also converging with the back side of support turned resistance trend line and the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the entire drop between 94.30 through 93.00 levels respectively. Please note that resistance is strong at 94.30 levels, while immediate support is seen through 93.00 levels respectively. A long-term trading strategy has been displayed below and one should follow the short-term trading strategies along the larger trend from tomorrow. Buying on dips seem to be a simple trading strategy here.
Trading plan:
Please remain long now, add more towards 92.50/60 levels, stop below 91.00, target 95.00 and higher.
Fundamental outlook:
Please watch out for FOMC meeting minutes (Sep 20), at 02:00 PM EST today.
Good luck!
Analysis of Gold for October 11, 2017
2017-10-11
Recently, Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1,289.00. According to the 15M time - frame, I found that price has broken the upward channel in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a bearish flag (bearish pattern) in creation, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $1,286.70, $1,282.30 and $1,279.50.
Resistance levels:
R1: $1,293.25
R2: $1,294.75
R3: $1,296.60
Support levels:
S1: $1,289.90
S2: $1,288.00
S3: $1,286.50
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
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