2017-11-14
GBP/USD has been quite volatile and corrective recently and residing below the resistance level of 1.3130 with a daily close. GBP has been quite worse with the economic reports recently whereas the Interest Rate hike also could not help the currency gain some momentum over USD. Today several GBP and USD high impact economic reports and events are going to be held which is expected to have a good impact in the market and provide information about the upcoming directional movement. Today GBP CPI report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 3.1% from the previous value of 3.0%, PPI Input is expected to increase to 0.8% from the previous value of 0.4%, Core CPI is expected to increase to 2.8% from the previous value of 2.7%, HPI report is expected to increase to 5.2% from the previous value of 5.0% and PPI Output report is also expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.2%. On the USD side, today FED Chair Yellen is going to speak about the interest rate decisions and future monetary policies which are expected to be neutral in nature, NFIB Small Business Index report is expected to increase to 104.0 from the previous figure of 103.0, PPI report is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.4% and Core PPI is also expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%. As of the current situation, almost every GBP economic reports are forecasted to have positive outcome today and USD reports has mixed expectations. If the GBP reports come out positive as expected the pair is expected to continue the correction and on the other hand if the reports come negative or worse than expected than we might see USD taking over the gains and pushing the price much lower. Market sentiment is currently quite in favor of USD as the Rate Hike in December is quite confirmed and USD is expected to gain good momentum soon.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing below the resistance level of 1.3130 with a daily close which is also being held as resistance by the dynamic level of 20 EMA. The price is still residing inside the corrective structure, but bears seemed to be quite stronger than the bulls in the formation. As the price remains below the resistance level of 1.3130 the bearish bias is expected to continue further with the target towards 1.2800 support area.
Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 14, 2017
2017-11-14
Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair continues to drift sideways ahead of former price resistance around 1.1690 levels as seen above. The pair is trading around 1.1670/75 levels at this moment and might be looking to turn lower one last time before producing a meaningful rally ahead. Please note that the wave structure remains unchanged from what was discussed last week. The pair is either producing a leading diagonal (5 waves) or a double zigzag corrective drop, both options are labeled above. A common point is that the pair might dip towards 1.1500/20 levels before turning higher again. A high probable wave count as labeled above is that it is working out wave iv which should terminate around current levels. If the above count holds true, we should see 1.1500/20 levels pretty soon. On the flip side, a break above 1.1690 and subsequently above trend line resistance would confirm that a meaningful bottom is in place at 1.1552 and that the next target should be higher towards at least 1.1900 levels.
Trading plan:
Conservative swing traders would want to buy below 1.1550 levels with risk at 1.1400, targeting 1.1900.
Aggressive traders might want to trade both sides.
US Dollar Index chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar Index is still looking to print one more high towards 95.30/50 levels before dropping lower again as a retracement or towards fresh lows. Looking at the wave counts here, it is more clear as an impulse (5 waves), labeled here. Furthermore, it seems to have terminated into wave iv around 94.25/30 levels, within the 5th wave as shown here. If the above wave count holds true, the pair should be heading north towards 95.30/50 levels before turning lower again. Please note that 95.30/50 is also the 0.382% Fibonacci resistance of the earlier drop between 102.20/30 through 91.00 levels, wave (3) of a higher degree according to the daily charts. One should expect a bearish reaction around that price towards a retracement lower or completely towards fresh lows below 91.00 levels. Immediate price support is at 92.75 levels while resistance is at 95.35 levels respectively.
Trading plan:
Conservative swing traders should be looking to sell as close to 95.00 or 95.30 levels with risk above 96.00 targeting 92.80.
Aggressive traders might want to trade both sides.
Fundamental outlook:
Please watch out for German GBP figures at 2:00 AM EST, followed by Italian GDP figures at 04:00 AM EST, then GBP consumer and Core Consumer price index at 04:30 AM EST, and finally Yellen speech along with Draghi's and EURO zone GDP figures at 05.00 AM EST
Good luck!
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 14, 2017
2017-11-14
Wave summary:
We continue to look for a little more upside closer to 133.15 to complete wave ii. From here renewed downside pressure should be expected as wave iii lower starts to develop a decline towards 128.36 on the wave lower to the ideal (E)-wave target at 123.43.
Short-term support is seen at 132.46 and again at 131.88. Only a break below the later will confirm that wave ii has completed and wave iii lower is developing.
R3: 133.15
R2: 133.02
R1: 132.84
Pivot: 132.46
S1: 132.24
S2: 131.88
S3: 131.36
Trading recommendation:
We are look to sell EUR again at 133.10 or upon a break below 131.88.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 14, 2017
2017-11-14
Wave summary:
There was no time for a correction to 1.6614. EUR/NZD moved straightly higher as wave iii of (iii) of 3 is gathering traction towards the next upside target at 1.7770 and 1.8430 longer terms.
Support is now seen at 1.6855, this support will ideally protect the downside for the rally through 1.7216 on the way higher to 1.7770.
R3: 1.7216
R2: 1.7119
R1: 1.7059
Pivot: 1.6855
S1: 1.6781
S2: 1.6678
S3: 1.6614
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6770. We will move our stop higher to 1.6750.
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