2017-11-17
USD/CHF has been quite bullish recently after bouncing off the 0.9860 support area. USD has been quite mixed with the economic reports this week which did lead to some bullish intervention along the way but was not quite impulsive in nature. Today we do not have any CHF economic reports or events to impact the market, but this week CHF had PPI report was published unchanged at 0.5% which was expected to decrease to 0.2%. The positive economic report did help the currency to gain somehow over USD but could not sustain it longer. On the USD side, today Building Permits report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 1.25M from the previous figure of 1.23M and Housing Starts is expected to increase as well to 1.19M from the previous figure of 1.13M. The USD is still quite on backfoot due to a quite indecisive market sentiment, but it is expected to have an upper hand over CHF. Ahead of the Rate Hike in December the USD is expected to gain momentum and proceed further with the gains against CHF in the future.
Now let us look at the technical view, the trend of this pair is currently quite bullish in nature which was quite non-volatile while breaking above the 0.9860 price level with a daily close. The price is currently residing in the support area of 0.9770 to 0.9860 from where the price recently bounced back with a bearish rejection with the target towards 1.01 resistance area. As the price remains above the support area the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 17, 2017
2017-11-17
Wave summary:
No change in view here.
We continue to look for more downside pressure towards 131.60 and a clear break below here, will confirm that wave (D) completed with the test of 134.50 and wave (E) now is developing. The ideal target for wave (E) is seen at 123.43.
R3: 134.50
R2: 133.89
R1: 133.44
Pivot: 132.75
S1: 132.30
S2: 131.88
S3: 131.36
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 133.10 with stop placed at 134.55
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 17, 2017
2017-11-17
Wave summary:
EUR/NZD continues to rally as expected and has now broken above the form top at 1.7216 as the rally higher towards the next target seen at 1.7770 continues.
Support is now seen at 1.7201 and again at 1.7121. The latter will ideally protect the downside for the expected rally higher towards 1.7770.
R3: 1.7665
R2: 1.7494
R1: 1.73333
Pivot: 1.7200
S1: 1.7121
S2: 1.7175
S3: 1.7059
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6770 and will move our stop higher to 1.7025.
Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 17, 2017
2017-11-17
Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair still remains under the probable count of a leading diagonal wave (1) and probable wave (2) at least for now as labelled here. The most probable wave direction is looking towards the south side at least until 1.1670/80 levels. As discussed yesterday, let us please look into an alternative wave count. If EUR/USD turns bullish from around 1.1670/80 levels, probability remains that of a much higher corrective rally that could push prices through 1.1900/50 levels before terminating wave (2). To keep things simple, and looking into the subset scenario we can expect a drop from current levels towards 1.1680 at least and then we would again review conditions there. Resistance remains around the 1.1875/1.1900 levels for now, while price support should be strong around 1.1670/80 levels respectively.
Trading plan:
Aggressive traders would want to go short again, risk above 1.1900 levels and target 1.1670/80.
US Dollar Index chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar might be producing an up gartley structure and might produce a deeper correction after a short rally towards 94.50/60 levels. We are still optimistic about the probability of an impulse wave (1) and wave (2) having complete or wave (2) may produce a deeper correction towards 92.60/80 levels. Sticking to an A-B-C gartley scenario, the US Dollar Index looks to be set for a rally from current levels and then reverse lower again. As an alternate though, the index might also continue to rally towards fresh highs at 95.30/50 levels before producing a meaningful correction. In both the above scenarios, the common point is a rally from here towards at least 94.50/60 levels. Immediate and strong price support is seen around the 92.80 levels, while resistance should be strong towards 94.50 levels respectively.
Trading plan:
Aggressive traders might want to go long again with risk below 93.40 and targeting 94.50/60.
Fundamental outlook:
Watch out for Mr Draghi's speech in a few minutes, followed by CAD Consumer price index around 0830 AM EST
Good luck!
Expect a possible bearish momentum
17 November 2017, USD/JPY
Wave Analysis:
Perfectly as previously forecasted, the impulsive wave (E) corrected it self slightly to the upper side but has currently picked a momentum to the lower side. During this intraday, we're expecting a possible extension of the impulsive wave (E) to the lower side but should not go beyond 107.45. Ideally, as long as the price remains below the upper trend line, we expect a possible momentum to the lower side, thus, only short position can be recommended. This pair should be traded alongside CADJPY, AUDJPY, CHFJPY and CHFJPY. These pairs have a strong positive correlation and will move in the same direction during this intraday. Only buy or sell the US Dollar if the other pairs are giving the same direction.
Trade Recommendations:
Expect a possible bearish momentum towards 107.45
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