2017-11-16
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
Trade Recommendations
Recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This scenario remains valid as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.
On the other hand, the current price levels around 1.1850 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry if enough bearish momentum is maintained. (Note the shooting-star daily candlestick of Yesterday).
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 16, 2017
2017-11-16
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).
Trade recommendations:
If the current bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.
S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.
Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for November 16, 2017
2017-11-16
AUD/USD has been quite volatile with the recent bearish pressure since it broke below the 0.7750 price level. The price did not have much retest or stronger pullback towards the horizontal and dynamic level but still the bearish pressure was quite stable to push the price lower in a sustainable manner. Today, Australia's Employment Change report was published with a worse figure of 3.7k decreasing from the previous figure of 26.6k which was expected to be at 17.8k, Unemployment Rate report showed a slight decrease to 5.4% which was expected to be unchanged at 5.5%, and MI Inflation Expectations report also showed a decrease to 3.7% from the previous value of 4.3%.On the other hand, today US Unemployment Claims report is going to be published which is expected to have a better result of 235k decreasing from the previous figure of 239k, Import Prices is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.7%, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index report is expected to decrease to 24.5 from the previous figure of 27.9, Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to have a slight increase to 76.3% from the previous value of 76.0%, and Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.3%. As for the current scenario, the economic reports from Australia was not quite up to the mark and did not contribute well into the gains of the aussie dollar against USD whereas most of the economic reports from the US today are forecasted to have mixed outcome which put the market into indecision now. If the US reports come better than expected that is the most probable scenario, then USD is set to advance further in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently quite indecisive but with steady gains on the downside that indicates that the bears are still dominating the market. The price is residing below the resistance area of 0.7750-0.7850 alongside the dynamic level of 20 EMA, acting as resistance. As the price remains below the resistance area and dynamic level of 20 EMA, the bearish pressure is expected to continue further with target towards 0.7500 soon.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 16, 2017
2017-11-16
Overview:
Yesterday, the NZD/USD pair dropped sharply from the level of 0.6875 towards 0.6844. Now, the price is set at 0.6850. On the H1 chart, the resistance of NZD/USD pair is seen at the level of 0.6875 and 0.6895. It should be noted that volatility is very high for that the NZD/USD pair is still moving between 0.6822 and 0.6800 in coming hours. Moreover, the price spot of 0.6875/0.6895 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NZD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. In order to indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.6875, sell below 0.6875 with the first target at 0.6822 in order to test the first support. Additionally, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.6822, the market will decline further to 0.6800. Also, it should be noticed that support 2 is seen at the level of 0.6800. However, the stop loss should be placed above the price of 0.6900.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 16, 2017
2017-11-16
Overview:
The USD/CHF pair faces resistance at 0.9910 since two days, while strong resistance is seen at 0.9966. Support levels are found at the 0.9870 and 0.9782 levels.
Today, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from 0.9910 level. The pair could fall from 0.9910 level to the first support around 0.9870.
In consequence, if the USD/CHF pair will break support at 0.9870, this level will turn into resistance today. In the H4 time frame, the 0.9910 level is expected to act as minor resistance. Hence, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.9910 level towards the target at 0.9870.
In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.9870 level , the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.9870 level in order to reach the second target at 0.9782.
On the other hand, the 0.9782 mark remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend will probably rebound again from 0.9782 level as long as this level is not breached. in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario above the area of 0.9782.
USD/JPY analysis for November 16, 2017
2017-11-16
Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 113.18. According to the 30 time - frame, I found a rising wedge in progress, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunties. The downward target is set at the price of 112.47 (swing low),
Resistance levels:
R1: 113.42
R2: 113.96
R3: 114.40
Support levels:
S1: 112.40
S2: 111.93
S3: 111.38
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
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