2017-11-23
All our targets which we predicted yesterday have been hit. NZD/USD still expected to trade in a higher range. The pair is holding on the upside and is trading above its ascending 20-period and 50-period moving averages.
The relative strength index calls for a further rise. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.6850.
Hence, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a new challenge to 0.6895 and even to 0.6915 in extension.
The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions.
Hence, as long as this key level is not broken, look for a new challenge to 0.6895 and even to 0.6915 in extension.
The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which indicates long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions.
The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 0.6895, 0.6915, and 0.6950
Support levels: 0.6820, 0.6790, and 0.6750
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
Our first target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair remains on the downside while being capped by a bearish trend line drawn from November 21.
Resistance levels: 0.6895, 0.6915, and 0.6950
Support levels: 0.6820, 0.6790, and 0.6750
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
Our first target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair remains on the downside while being capped by a bearish trend line drawn from November 21.
In fact, the descending 20-period moving average is also restricting any further upside potential of the pair. Currently, the pair keeps testing the lower Bollinger band, suggesting possible acceleration to the downside.
A break below the immediate support at 147.90 would trigger a further drop toward 147.60. Key resistance is located at 148.75.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 148.75 with the target at 149.05.
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 148.75, Take Profit: 147.90
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions.
A break below the immediate support at 147.90 would trigger a further drop toward 147.60. Key resistance is located at 148.75.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 148.75 with the target at 149.05.
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 148.75, Take Profit: 147.90
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions.
The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 149.05, 149.35, and 149.90
Support levels: 147.90, 147.60, and 147
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
USD/CHF is under pressure and expected to trade with bearish outlook as key resistance is at 0.9870. Despite the recent rebound from 0.9800, the pair is still trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting indicated that the central bank would likely raise short-term rates in the near term considering a strengthening economy. However, the minutes also showed that some Fed officials believe weak inflation may persist longer than expected.
Therefore, as long as 0.9870 is not surpassed, look for a new drop to 0.9765 and even to 0.9735 in extension.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9870, Take Profit: 0.9765
Resistance levels: 0.9900, 0.9925, and 0.9960
Support levels: 0.9765, 0.9735, and 0.9700
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
CHF has been quite impulsive with the gains over USD recently which lead the price to reside in the support area between 0.9770 to 0.9860. Due to recent worse economic reports of USD and Dovish FOMC Meeting outcome USD has suffered the weakness against CHF after having a good bullish momentum lately. FED has been quite dovish with the recent FOMC meeting hinting about delays in further Rate Hikes which put the market in an indecisive mode with a confused market sentiment, moreover, the recent USD economic reports were not quite as expected. Today USD is expected to be quite weak in comparison due to the holiday being observed for the Thanksgiving day after the dovish FOMC Meeting recently. On the other hand, on the CHF side today a high impact economic event of SNB Chairman Jordan is going to speak about the short-term Interest Rates and future Monetary Policy which is expected to be quite hawkish in nature which is expected to empower CHF to proceed for more gains over USD in the coming days. Despite having quite confirmed Rate Hike possibility in December, USD is expected to struggle with the gains which might lead to bearish pressure in the pair in the future. To sum up, CHF is expected to have an upper hand over USD for the coming days until any positive economic report from USD side helps the currency to gain momentum.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing in the middle of the support area range between 0.9770 to 0.9860 where a break below the 0.9770 level with a daily close will result to impulsive bearish pressure with the target towards 0.9450 support area in the coming days. As of the recent impulsive bearish momentum, the price is more likely to close below the support level and lower highs in the coming days but that would require a strong daily close below the 0.9770 support level. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.9950 resistance area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound from 111.90 and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, a bullish cross between the 20-period and 50-period moving average has been identified. The relative strength index is bullish, calling for a further upside.
Hence, above 112.20, look for a new challenge with targets at 112.75 and 113.00 in extension.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 111.95 with a target at 112.40.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 111.95, Take Profit: 111.00
Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.70 and 113.05 Support Levels: 111.00, 111.65, 112.00
Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair posted an interesting rally yesterday and it's good we exited short positions earlier. At the same time, the long entries or positions were also not triggered at 1.1670/80 levels as expected, rendering us to remain flat. Believe it or not, the story still remains well poised to drop lower from here, until prices remain below 1.1860 levels. As depicted on the chart view here, the pair could still drop to 1.1670/80 levels, complete the counter trend, and then rally towards 1.1970 levels. For this count to hold true, prices should remain below 1.1860/65 levels. On the flip side though, a push higher turns the short-term outlook towards higher levels, and push prices through 1.1970 before turning lower again. Resistance is seen at 1.1875/1.1900 levels, while support comes in at 1.1710 levels respectively.
Trading plan:
Aggressive traders would want to remain short with risk above 1.1860 levels, targeting 1.1670 levels.
US Dollar Index chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar Index chart setups still look to be good on the long side. The index dropped lower towards almost 93.15 levels yesterday before pausing. The current wave count and structure is bringing us closer to our larger trade scenario where an upward gartley was in the making, which could push prices lower towards 92.68 and 93.00 levels respectively. Please note that the fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between 91.00 through 95.10 levels is passing through 92.60 levels and that should remain a strong support going forward. Furthermore, bullish divergence scenarios have started to appear on short term timeframes as well, indicating that a bottom is very close. Immediate support is seen through 93.00 levels while resistance is at 94.20 now.
Trading plan:
Please remain partial long now and remaining around 92.60/80 levels, stop at 91.00 and target 98.00.
Fundamental outlook:
Please watch out for GBP Gross Domestic Product in about 04:30 AM EST
Good luck!
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
Wave summary:
We continue to look for a clear break below support at 131.14 to confirm that wave (D) has completed and wave (E) lower to the ideal target near 123.43 is developing. Short-term we could see a minor pop to minor resistance near 132.75 before turning lower again.
R3: 133.13
R2: 132.75
R1: 132.32
Pivot: 131.80
S1: 131.14
S2: 130.81
S3: 130.39
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 133.10 with stop placed at break-even.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
Wave summary:
We continue to look for a break below support at 1.7100 to confirm that a deeper correction in wave ii towards 1.6619 is developing. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.7237 and again at 1.7300. The later will ideally cap the upside for the expected break below support at 1.7100.
R3: 1.7408
R2: 1.7334
R1: 1.7300
Pivot: 1.7100
S1: 1.7058
S2: 1.6916
S3: 1.6805
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 1.7200 with our stop placed at 1.7415.
Resistance levels: 149.05, 149.35, and 149.90
Support levels: 147.90, 147.60, and 147
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
USD/CHF is under pressure and expected to trade with bearish outlook as key resistance is at 0.9870. Despite the recent rebound from 0.9800, the pair is still trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting indicated that the central bank would likely raise short-term rates in the near term considering a strengthening economy. However, the minutes also showed that some Fed officials believe weak inflation may persist longer than expected.
Therefore, as long as 0.9870 is not surpassed, look for a new drop to 0.9765 and even to 0.9735 in extension.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9870, Take Profit: 0.9765
Resistance levels: 0.9900, 0.9925, and 0.9960
Support levels: 0.9765, 0.9735, and 0.9700
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
CHF has been quite impulsive with the gains over USD recently which lead the price to reside in the support area between 0.9770 to 0.9860. Due to recent worse economic reports of USD and Dovish FOMC Meeting outcome USD has suffered the weakness against CHF after having a good bullish momentum lately. FED has been quite dovish with the recent FOMC meeting hinting about delays in further Rate Hikes which put the market in an indecisive mode with a confused market sentiment, moreover, the recent USD economic reports were not quite as expected. Today USD is expected to be quite weak in comparison due to the holiday being observed for the Thanksgiving day after the dovish FOMC Meeting recently. On the other hand, on the CHF side today a high impact economic event of SNB Chairman Jordan is going to speak about the short-term Interest Rates and future Monetary Policy which is expected to be quite hawkish in nature which is expected to empower CHF to proceed for more gains over USD in the coming days. Despite having quite confirmed Rate Hike possibility in December, USD is expected to struggle with the gains which might lead to bearish pressure in the pair in the future. To sum up, CHF is expected to have an upper hand over USD for the coming days until any positive economic report from USD side helps the currency to gain momentum.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing in the middle of the support area range between 0.9770 to 0.9860 where a break below the 0.9770 level with a daily close will result to impulsive bearish pressure with the target towards 0.9450 support area in the coming days. As of the recent impulsive bearish momentum, the price is more likely to close below the support level and lower highs in the coming days but that would require a strong daily close below the 0.9770 support level. As the price remains below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 0.9950 resistance area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound from 111.90 and broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, a bullish cross between the 20-period and 50-period moving average has been identified. The relative strength index is bullish, calling for a further upside.
Hence, above 112.20, look for a new challenge with targets at 112.75 and 113.00 in extension.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 111.95 with a target at 112.40.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 111.95, Take Profit: 111.00
Resistance levels: 112.40, 112.70 and 113.05 Support Levels: 111.00, 111.65, 112.00
Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair posted an interesting rally yesterday and it's good we exited short positions earlier. At the same time, the long entries or positions were also not triggered at 1.1670/80 levels as expected, rendering us to remain flat. Believe it or not, the story still remains well poised to drop lower from here, until prices remain below 1.1860 levels. As depicted on the chart view here, the pair could still drop to 1.1670/80 levels, complete the counter trend, and then rally towards 1.1970 levels. For this count to hold true, prices should remain below 1.1860/65 levels. On the flip side though, a push higher turns the short-term outlook towards higher levels, and push prices through 1.1970 before turning lower again. Resistance is seen at 1.1875/1.1900 levels, while support comes in at 1.1710 levels respectively.
Trading plan:
Aggressive traders would want to remain short with risk above 1.1860 levels, targeting 1.1670 levels.
US Dollar Index chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar Index chart setups still look to be good on the long side. The index dropped lower towards almost 93.15 levels yesterday before pausing. The current wave count and structure is bringing us closer to our larger trade scenario where an upward gartley was in the making, which could push prices lower towards 92.68 and 93.00 levels respectively. Please note that the fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between 91.00 through 95.10 levels is passing through 92.60 levels and that should remain a strong support going forward. Furthermore, bullish divergence scenarios have started to appear on short term timeframes as well, indicating that a bottom is very close. Immediate support is seen through 93.00 levels while resistance is at 94.20 now.
Trading plan:
Please remain partial long now and remaining around 92.60/80 levels, stop at 91.00 and target 98.00.
Fundamental outlook:
Please watch out for GBP Gross Domestic Product in about 04:30 AM EST
Good luck!
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
Wave summary:
We continue to look for a clear break below support at 131.14 to confirm that wave (D) has completed and wave (E) lower to the ideal target near 123.43 is developing. Short-term we could see a minor pop to minor resistance near 132.75 before turning lower again.
R3: 133.13
R2: 132.75
R1: 132.32
Pivot: 131.80
S1: 131.14
S2: 130.81
S3: 130.39
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 133.10 with stop placed at break-even.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 23, 2017
2017-11-23
Wave summary:
We continue to look for a break below support at 1.7100 to confirm that a deeper correction in wave ii towards 1.6619 is developing. Short-term resistance is seen at 1.7237 and again at 1.7300. The later will ideally cap the upside for the expected break below support at 1.7100.
R3: 1.7408
R2: 1.7334
R1: 1.7300
Pivot: 1.7100
S1: 1.7058
S2: 1.6916
S3: 1.6805
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 1.7200 with our stop placed at 1.7415.
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