2017-11-15
Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair has rallied before printing a low below 1.1550 levels recently. It is now facing the 50% fibonacci resistance of the entire drop between 1.2090 through 1.1550 levels respectively. Still at least two probable wave counts are coming up. If the entire drop between 1.2092 and 1.1550 levels should be considered as a leading diagonal, then the recent rally should prove to be corrective and find resistance soon to reverse lower again. On the other hand, if we consider the drop as A-B-C, which is not labelled here, then EUR/USD is heading north towards fresh highs. Probabilities will increase towards the latter wave count if the pair continues to trade in the buy zone. Resistance should be very strong around the 1.1870/85 levels where fibonacci 0.618 of the earlier drop is passing through.
Trading plan:
Please look to sell at least 50% around 1.1870/85 levels, stop above 1.2092 and target open.
US Dollar Index chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar Index has also dropped before printing fresh highs at 95.30/50 levels and it is seen to be trading around 93.50/60 levels for now. The US Dollar Index is either producing wave 4 of the same degree or probably wave (2) of one higher degree as labelled here. In either case, a push higher is suggested from current levels. Please note that the index is seen to be trading very close to the fibonacci 0.382 support levels of the entire rally between 91.00 and 95.10 levels earlier. Furthermore, please note that the pair would find strong support around 92.80/93.00 levels, which is fibonacci 0.618 support of the earlier rally mentioned above. A high probable trade setup should be a bullish reversal around 93.00 levels going forward.
Trading plan:
Please look to go long again around 93.00/93.50 levels (at least 50% capacity), stop below 91.00, targeting 98.00 and higher.
Fundamental outlook:
Please watch out for USD Consumer Price Index at 08:30 AM EST today.
Good luck!
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for November 15, 2017
2017-11-15
Overview:
The USD/CHF pair faces resistance at 0.9910, while strong resistance is seen at 0.9966. Support levels are found at the 0.9870 and 0.9782 levels. Today, the USD/CHF pair continues to move downwards from 0.9910 level. The pair could fall from 0.9910 level to the first support around 0.9870. In consequence, if the USD/CHF pair will break support at 0.9870, this level will turn into resistance today. In the H4 time frame, the 0.9910 level is expected to act as minor resistance. Hence, we expect the USD/CHF pair to continue moving in the bearish trend from 0.9910 level towards the target at 0.9870. In the long term, if the pair succeeds in passing through 0.9870 level , the market will indicate the bearish opportunity below 0.9870 level in order to reach the second target at 0.9782. However, the 0.9782 mark remains a significant support zone. Thus, the trend will probably rebound again from 0.9782 level as long as this level is not breached. in overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario above the area of 0.9782.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for November 15, 2017
2017-11-15
Overview:
The NZD/USD pair is moving around the spot of 0.6891 (daily pivot point). It should be noted that the resistance is established at the level of 0.6891 which represents a pivot point.
The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of force following a breakout of the highest price of 0.6860. The price has been in a bearish channel this week. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in a bullish trending market.
The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 0.6891. As long as the trend is above the price of 0.6891, the market is still in an uptrend. The trend is still strong below the moving average.
The NZD/USD pair didn't make any significant movements in the last two days. The market is indicating a bearish opportunity above the mentioned resistance levels. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the 100 EMA heads for the downside.
Therefore, strong resistance will be found around the spot of 0.6891 providing a clear signal to sell with a target seen at 0.6821. If the trend breaks the first support at 0.6821, the pair will move downwards continuing the bearish trend development to the level of 0.6740 in order to test the daily support 2.
The major support is seen at the levels of 0.6821 and 0.6740. However, the stop loss should be set at the price of 0.6891.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for November 15, 2017
2017-11-15
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
Trade Recommendations
Recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This scenario remains valid as long as the recent low around 1.1550 remains unbroken.
On the other hand, the current price levels around 1.1850 should be watched for a possible short-term SELL entry.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 15, 2017
2017-11-15
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart indicating high probability of bearish reversal as long as bearish persistence below the neckline 0.7150 is maintained.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
If the recent low (0.6817) remains defended by the bulls, a bullish pullback can be expected towards 0.7050 if the current bullish pullback persists above 0.6970 ( Intraday Key-level ).
Trade recommendations:
If the current bullish pullback persists towards 0.7050, a valid SELL entry can be offered around there.
S/L should be placed above 0.7100. T/P levels to be placed at 0.6970, 0.6900 and 0.6830.
GBP/USD analysis for November 15, 2017
2017-11-15
Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3213. According to the 15M time – frame, I found rejection from the pivot level of 1.3141, which is a sign that selling looks risky. There is also an oversold condition on the stochastic oscillator, which is another sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunties. The upward targets are set at the price of 1.3210 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of 1.3255 (pivot resistance 2).
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.3211
R2: 1.3255
R3: 1.3325
Support levels:
S1: 1.3095
S2: 1.3025
S3: 1.2980
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
Analysis of Gold for November 15, 2017
2017-11-15
Recently, the Gold has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of $1,285.00. According to the 15M time – frame, I found that price is trading above the pivot level ($1,277.94), which is sign that selling looks risky. I also found broken yesterday's high at the price of $1,283.50, which is another sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunties. Upward targets are set at the price of $1,291.10 (pivot resistance 1) and at the price of $1,298.90 (pivot resistance 2).
Resistance levels:
R1: $1,285.85
R2: $1,291.50
R3: $1,298.95
Support levels:
S1: $1,272.24
S2: $1,264.34
S3: $1,258.65
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for November 15, 2017
2017-11-15
EUR/JPY is still residing inside the corrective range of 131.40 to 134.40 area which is currently expected to break on the upside in the coming days as per the formed structure. Recently EUR has been quite positive with the economic reports and events with hawkish results which helped the currency to gain momentum in the market which is expected to continue further in the coming days. Today, EUR French Final CPI report was published unchanged as expected at 0.1% and Trade Balance report showed significant growth to 25.0B from the previous figure of 21.0B which was expected to be at 21.2B. On the other hand, JPY had been quite mixed with the economic reports today which did not quite help the currency to put pressure against the recently impulsive EUR gains. Today, JPY Prelim GDP report was published with decreased value at 0.3% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.4%, Prelim GDP Index report was published as expected at 0.1% which previously was negative at -0.4% and Revised Industrial Production report was published with less deficit at -1.0% which was expected to be unchanged at -1.1%. As of the current scenario, EUR has not been quite impulsive till now with positive economic reports published today whereas JPY could not quite dominate either but was quite successful to hold the EUR gains to certain extent. In the coming days, it is expected that EUR will gain further over JPY based on long-term growth policies discussed in the ECB events, which will lead to steady gains for the currency in the future.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price is currently residing above the support level of 131.40and dynamic level of 20 EMA as well. The trend has been bullish since April 2017 which is expected to continue further in the coming days after the price breaks above the 134.40 resistance area. As the price remains above 131.40 support area the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for November 15, 2017
2017-11-15
USD/CAD has been quite bearish and corrective recently due to positive economic reports of CAD supporting the gains of the currency against USD in the existing bullish trend. USD has been the dominant currency in the pair since September despite the Rate Hike in CAD from 0.75% to 1.0%. Currently, the market sentiment is looking forward to the USD Rate Hike in December which is expected to empower the currency to gain further against CAD in the future. Today USD CPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.5%, Core CPI report is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.1%, Core Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 1.0%, Retail Sales report is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 1.6%, Empire State Manufacturing Index is also expected to decrease to 25.5 from the previous figure of 30.2 and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show negative result of -2.1M from the previous positive figure of 2.2M. On the CAD side, today we do not have any upcoming economic event or report to have an impact on the market momentum, but tomorrow CAD Foreign Securities purchases report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 10.68B from the previous figure of 9.85B and Manufacturing Sales report is expected to be negative at -0.4% from the previous value of 1.6%. To sum up, both USD and CAD economic reports are forecasted to be mixed in nature whereas the market sentiment is currently leaning towards the USD side as the Rate Hike in December is quite imminent. If the economic reports of USD result better than expected then further bullish pressure with a higher target is expected in this pair against CAD in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view, the price has reacted to the bearish divergence recently which lead to the recent bearish pressure in the pair whereas the price is currently struggling to break above 1.2750-1.2800 resistance area which has been confluence with the 200 EMA as well. As the price remains below 1.2750-1.2800 resistance area with a daily close the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
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