2017-12-15
NZD/USD is currently residing inside the resistance area of 0.6980 to 0.7050 after an impulsive bullish pressure off the 0.68 support area. Despite the federal funds rate increase to 1.50% from 1.25%, the market shaped the opposite sentiment that has led to a further gain on the NZD side recently. Today, New Zealand's Business Manufacturing Index report was published with an increase to 57.7 from the previous figure of 57.3 which helped the currency to gain some momentum again over USD after the bearish pressure in the pair yesterday. On the USD side, today Empire State Manufacturing Index report is expected to show a decrease to 18.8 from the previous figure of 19.4, Capacity Utilization Rate is expected to have a slight increase in value to 77.2% from the previous value of 77.0%, and Industrial Production is expected to decrease in value to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.9%. As for the current scenario, USD is expected to gain some momentum in the coming days if the upcoming economic reports shows better than expected readings. This could lead to further strengthening of USD against NZD.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bullish pressure after an impulsive bearish daily candle formed yesterday. In this case, if the price breaks below 0.6980 support level with a daily close, then we will expect further bearish pressure in the pair which will continue the bearish trend with a target towards 0.68 support area. As the price remains below 0.7050 resistance level, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 15, 2017
2017-12-15
Wave summary:
EUR/JPY has broken below support at 132.81 as expected and should now continue to move lower towards important support seen at 131.14. This support still needs to be broken to confirm that wave (D) indeed completed with the test of 134.50 and wave (E) lower is developing for a decline towards the ideal target seen at 123.43.
Short-term resistance is now seen at 132.81.
R3: 133.18
R2: 132.81
R1: 132.47
Pivot: 132.14
S1: 131.70
S2: 131.14
S3: 130.56
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 133.40. We will move our stop lower to 133.80.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 15, 20172017-12-15
Wave summary:
EUR/NZD spiked higher to 1.6965 before tuning lower again. The failure to sustain the break above 1.6955 calls for more downside pressure towards 1.6720 before a low likely is in place. Short-term minor resistance is seen at 1.6873 and a break above here will be the first warning that a low has been found.
R3: 1.6965
R2: 1.6873
R1: 1.6836
Pivot: 1.6820
S1: 1.6751
S2: 1.6720
S3: 1.6695
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.6955 was hit for a nice profit of 245 pips. We will be looking for a new buying opportunity and will buy a break above 1.6873.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/GBP for December 15, 2017
2017-12-15
EUR/GBP has been residing in a volatile corrective structure after the impulsive bearish pressure since September. At present, the pair is expected to break below the 0.8750 support level. GBP has been quite strong amid recent economic reports whereas EUR is still struggling due to mixed economic reports. Recently, Interest Rates reports from the ECB and the UK were published. The key interest rate of the European regulator remained unchanged at 0.0% as expected. The Bank of England also announced a decision to keep the key rate unchanged at 0.50% as expected. EUR is currently looking at the long-term goals rather than gaining momentum over short-term whereas GBP is trying to have some quick gains to be in the momentum amid political and Brexit issues. Today, the eurozone's Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 24.4B from the previous figure of 25.0B. On the GBP side, today MPC Member Haldane will speak about the upcoming policies which is expected to be quite neutral in nature. Moreover, BOE Quarterly Bulletin is going to be released today as well with the remarks on market development and monetary policy decisions. The document is also expected to be neutral in nature. As for the current scenario, GBP is expected to dominate EUR in the coming days until EUR finds support from economic reports and events.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price has been held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA for several days recently which has been quite successful as dynamic resistance. As the price remains below the 20 EMA and 0.8850 price area, the bearish bias is expected to continue further with a target towards 0.8500-50 support area in the coming days. The upcoming move is expected to be quite impulsive in nature as the Pre-breakout structure is currently unfolding.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 15, 2017
2017-12-15
All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. Despite the recent pullback from 0.7030 (the high of December 13), the pair is still trading above the key support at 0.6975. Even though the continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Hence, as long as 0.6975 is not broken, we are cautious with up targets at 0.7050 and 0.7075 in extension.
The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels and the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 0.7050, 0.7075, and 0.7105
Support levels: 0.6945, 0.6920, and 0.6885
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for December 15, 2017
2017-12-15
GBP/JPY is expected to continue its downside movement and we are going to retain our yesterday's outlook. The pair is holding on the downside. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index calls for another decline.
To conclude, as long as 151.95 is not surpassed, look for a new test with targets at 150.50 and 150.00 in extension.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 151.95 with the target at 152.40
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 151.95, Take Profit: 150.50
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 152.40, 152.85, and 153.15
Support levels: 150.50, 150.00, and 149.45
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 15, 2017
2017-12-15
USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound after touching the 50-period moving average. In addition, the 50-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index lacks downward momentum. The downside potential should be limited by the key support at 0.9835.
The U.S. Commerce Department reported that retail sales grew 0.8% on month in November, faster than +0.3% expected and +0.5% in October. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 225,000 in the week ended December 9, lower than 235,000 new claims expected.
To sum up, as long as this key level holds on the downside, look for the continuation of the rebound to 0.9905 and even to 0.9930 in extension.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, Stop Loss: 0.9835, Take Profit: 0.9905
Resistance levels: 0.9905, 0.9930, and 0.9960
Support levels: 0.9805, 0.9785, and 0.9755
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