2017-12-12
GBP/JPY is under pressure. The pair is trading below its declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages, which play resistance roles and maintain the downside bias. The relative strength index is below its neutrality level at 50 and lacks upward momentum.
To sum up, as long as 151.95 holds on the upside, look for a return to 150.50. A break below of this level would trigger a new decline to 150.00.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a long position is recommended above 151.95 with the target at 152.40
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 151.95, Take Profit: 150.50
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot points, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 152.40, 152.85, and 153.15
Support levels: 150.50, 150.00, and 149.45
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 12, 2017
2017-12-12
USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish outlook below 0.9955. Although the pair broke above its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, it is still trading below its key resistance at 0.9935, which should limit the upside momentum. The relative strength index lacks upward momentum.
To conclude, as long as 0.9955 is not surpassed, another drop to 0.9895 and even to 0.9880 seems more likely to occur.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot points indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 0.9955, Take Profit: 0.9895
Resistance levels: 0.9975, 1.0000, and 1.0050
Support levels: 0.9895, 0.9880, and 0.9850
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for December 12, 2017
2017-12-12
USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish outlook. The pair is posting a rebound from a low of 113.21 seen yesterday (December 11), but remains capped by the key resistance at 114.00 (around the high of yesterday). The relative strength index has returned to levels above the neutrality level of 50, indicating upward momentum which could help extend the rebound for a while. However, as long as the key resistance at 114.00 is not surpassed, the pair stands higher chances of returning to 113.10 and 112.80 on the downside.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a long position is recommended above 114.00 with a target of 114.20.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: SELL, Stop Loss: 114.00, Take Profit: 113.10
Resistance levels: 114.20, 114.55 and 114.80 Support Levels: 113.10, 112.80, 112.50
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for December 12, 2017
2017-12-12
EUR/USD has been trading lower after breaking below the 1.1850 event level recently. Yesterday, EUR tried to gain some momentum against USD but failed to sustain the gain against the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 1.1800 resistance area, resulting in bearish pressure. This week is going to be very volatile for EUR/USD as traders are focused on the FOMC Statement, Economic outlook, and Federal Funds Rate report which are to be published on Wednesday. Moreover, traders are betting on the Fed raising the key interest rate to 1.50% from the previous value of 1.25%. If that happens, USD is expected to be more impulsive with the gains against EUR leading to a further decline of the pair, taking the price much deeper in the coming days. Today, France's Private Payrolls report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, German ZEW Economic Sentiment is expected to decrease to 17.9 from the previous figure of 18.7, and ZEW Economic sentiment is expected to have a slight decrease to 30.2 from the previous figure of 30.9. On the USD side, today PPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.4% and Core PPI is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%. Though the forecast is quite mixed in nature currently, but any positive reading will provide USD with support in the coming days. As for the current scenario, USD is expected to gain good momentum later this trading week that is expected to lead the price towards 1.15 support area in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 1.1800 price area which is expected to push the price lower towards 1.1660 and later towards 1.1500 support area in the coming days. The rejection off the dynamic level indicates that the bearish trend players are still in the market and ready to push the price lower when the rate hike decision strikes on Wednesday this week. As the price remains below 1.1850, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for December 12, 2017
2017-12-12
USD/JPY has been impulsive and non-volatile with the bullish gains after bouncing off the support area of 110.80 to 111.70. JPY has been quite positive with the recent economic reports that helped the currency to gain some momentum and halt the impulsive gains of USD along the way. On the other hand, high impact economic reports from the US are going to be published this week which includes Federal Funds Rate report which will announce the rate increase to 1.50% from the previous value of 1.25%. Today, Japan's PPI report was published with an increase to 3.5% from the previous value of 3.4% which was expected to decrease to 3.3% and Tertiary Industry Activity report was published with an increase to 0.3% from the previous negative value of -0.2% which was expected to be at 0.2%. As the readings were better than expected, JPY gained good momentum against USD today which is expected to pause the bullish move with certain consolidation before the Rate Hike. On the USD side, NFIB Small Business Index report is due later today which is expected to increase to 104.6 from the previous figure of 103.8, PPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, and Core PPI is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%. To sum up, JPY is currently quite strong in light of Japan's economic reports that provided JPY with some support today and may lead to some consolidation before the Fed's rate hike when USD is expected to shoot up higher towards 116.50 in the future.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure in the impulsive bullish trend. The price is currently expected to correct itself a bit which might fall towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA or 113.00 support area before launching up higher towards 116.50 after the rate hike decision on Wednesday. As the price remains above 113.00, the impulsive bullish bias is expected to continue further.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 12, 2017
2017-12-12
Wave summary:
The minor rally from 132.21 looks exhausted, but we need a break below minor support at 133.41 to confirm that a top is in place for renewed downside pressure towards 132.21 towards strong support at 131.14, that needs to be broken to confirm wave (D) completed with the test of 134.50 and wave (E) now is developing towards 123.43.
As long as minor support at 133.41 is able to protect the downside a final spike close to 134.05 can not be excluded, before turning lower again.
R3: 134.50
R2: 134.17
R1: 133.97
Pivot: 133.41
S1: 133.11
S2: 132.69
S3: 132.23
Trading recommendation:
We will sell EUR at 134.00 or upon a break below 133.41 with stop placed at 134.60.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 12, 2017
2017-12-12
Wave summary:
EUR/NZD has reached its 1.7000 target and could still move a little lower towards 1.6922 as long as minor resistance at 1.7057 is able to cap the upside. That said, a corrective low should be close at hand for renewed upside pressure towards 1.7480 on the way towards 1.7777.
R3: 1.7147
R2: 1.1714
R1: 1.7057
Pivot: 1.7010
S1: 1.6984
S2: 1.6920
S3: 1.6851
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 1.7200. We will move our stop lower to 1.7065.
Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for December 12, 2017
2017-12-12
GBP/USD is currently quite bearish in nature having strong rejection of the bulls yesterday by bouncing off the weekend gap created in the market.
This week, both central banks in the UK and the US are holding policy meetings. The US Fed is widely expected to increase its funds rate to 1.50% from the previous value of 1.25%.
Next day, the Bnak of England is going to announce its policy decision, so the key interest rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0.50%. By the end of this week, a good amount of volatility is expected along with a directional bias of the market. This should be analized to track the upcoming direction in this pair. Today, the UK CPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.0%, PPI Input report is expected to increase to 1.6% from the previous value of 1.0%, RPI report is expected to show a slight increase to 4.1% from the previous value of 4.0%, Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 2.7%, HPI report is expected to decrease to 5.2% from the previous value of 5.4%, and PPI Output is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%. On the USD side, today the US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.4%, Core PPI report is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.4%, and NFIB Small Business Index report is expected to increase to 104.6 from the previous figure of 103.8. As for the current scenario, the pair is already quite volatile but with the upcoming high impact economic events and reports, the pair is expected to get a directional bias which is most likely to be on the USD side, taking the price much lower in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently showing some bearish pressure off the dynamic level of 20 EMA above the support area of 1.33. The price is expected to break below 1.33 to reach the lower support area of 1.31 area in the coming days. The rate rike decision on Wednesday opens doors for the USD to gain more momentum. As the price remains below 1.35, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
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