Black rectangle - critical supportBlue trend lines - resistance
EUR/USD is inside the 4-hour Kumo (CLOUD). Trend is neutral as price is trading between 1.17-1.1850 for the last few days. Short-term resistance is at 1.1820-1.1830. Support is at 1.1765. Break support and we are going to challenge the black rectangle area just above 1.17 which is critical support. Break above the blue trend lines and we are going to challenge 1.1950.
Black rectangle - critical support areaSo far price remains above the critical support area. Breaking below it will push price towards the red rectangle area and the Ichimoku cloud support around 1.14. This is my preferred scenario. However there still no confirmation of such a bearish move starting yet.
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
The British pound against the Dollar is at a very critical junction. Price is still below the long-term resistance trend line but holding above the crucial 1.30-1.31 support. The GBP/USD is mainly moving sideways with no clear trend, but short-term view makes me favor the bearish side.
Red line - resistanceBlue line - support
The GBP/USD pair is making lower highs and has tested the support at 1.33 so far 3 times. If there is a fourth time, I expect support at 1.33 to be broken and price move at least towards 1.32. Resistance at the red trend line is already hit three times. Breaking above it will push price towards 1.35 which is the long-term resistance.
The GBP/USD so far respects both the upward sloping trend line from 2016 and the long-term downward sloping trend line from 2014. Breaking above 1.35 will open the way for a move towards 1.40. Break below 1.32-1.30 and we could see a sell off towards 1.20.
USD/JPY analysis for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 112.58. According to the 30M time - frame, I found that price rejected from the Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 112.35, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. I found Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 112.80 and Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 113.10.
Resistance levels:
R1: 112.80
R2: 113.08
R3: 113.33
Support levels:
S1: 112.28
S2: 112.03
S3: 111.76
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
GBP/USD analysis for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3372. According to the 15M time - frame, I found a broken intraday bearish flag in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found overbought conditions on the stochastic oscillator. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3320 (pivot support 1) and at the price of 1.3255 (pivot support 2).
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.3432
R2: 1.3480
R3: 1.3545
Support levels:
S1: 1.3320
S2: 1.3255
S3: 1.3206
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.1900.
Trade Recommendations
The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 were suggested for a valid short-term SELL entry. It's already running in profits.
S/L should be lowered to 1.1870 to offset the associated risk. Remaining T/P levels to be located at 1.1700 and 1.1590.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.
Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7150 if enough bullish momentum is expressed above the price level of 0.7050.
Trade Recommendations:
An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is being established on the chart indicating high probability of bullish reversal.
That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 could be considered for a short-term BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6950 (neckline) is mandatory to pursue towards next bullish targets.
S/L should be moved to 0.6900 to secure some profits. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050 and 0.7110.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
USD/JPY analysis for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
Recently, the USD/JPY pair has been trading sideways at the price of 112.58. According to the 30M time - frame, I found that price rejected from the Fibonacci retracement 61.8% at the level of 112.35, which is a sign that selling looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential upward targets. I found Fibonacci expansion 61.8% at the price of 112.80 and Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 113.10.
Resistance levels:
R1: 112.80
R2: 113.08
R3: 113.33
Support levels:
S1: 112.28
S2: 112.03
S3: 111.76
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
GBP/USD analysis for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3372. According to the 15M time - frame, I found a broken intraday bearish flag in the background, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found overbought conditions on the stochastic oscillator. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3320 (pivot support 1) and at the price of 1.3255 (pivot support 2).
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.3432
R2: 1.3480
R3: 1.3545
Support levels:
S1: 1.3320
S2: 1.3255
S3: 1.3206
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2100 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the previous Monthly candlestick of September).
Daily Outlook
In January 2017, the previous downtrend was reversed when the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was established around 1.0500. Since then, evident bullish momentum has been expressed on the chart.
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
If the recent bearish breakout persists below 1.1700 (Neckline of the reversal pattern), a quick bearish decline should be expected towards the price zone of 1.1415-1.1520 (Initial targets for the depicted H&S pattern).
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure is needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery. This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.1900.
Trade Recommendations
The price levels around 1.1900-1.1950 were suggested for a valid short-term SELL entry. It's already running in profits.
S/L should be lowered to 1.1870 to offset the associated risk. Remaining T/P levels to be located at 1.1700 and 1.1590.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.
Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7150 if enough bullish momentum is expressed above the price level of 0.7050.
Trade Recommendations:
An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is being established on the chart indicating high probability of bullish reversal.
That's why, the price zone of 0.6800-0.6830 could be considered for a short-term BUY entry. Bullish persistence above 0.6950 (neckline) is mandatory to pursue towards next bullish targets.
S/L should be moved to 0.6900 to secure some profits. T/P level remains projected towards 0.7050 and 0.7110.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
Overview:
Right now, the price is still trading around the spot of 0.6948 and 0.7026. The NZD/USD pair will continue to rise from the level of 0.6948. The support is found at the level of 0.6948, which represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level in the H1 time frame. The price is likely to form a double bottom. Today, the major support is seen at 0.6948, while immediate resistance is seen at 0.7026. Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of a high at 0.6948. So, buy above the level of 0.6948 with the first target at 0.7026 in order to test the daily resistance 1. Also, the level of 0.7026 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in an uptrend; for that we expect the NZDUSD pair to climb from 0.7026 to 0.7065 today. At the same time, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.6948, a further decline to 0.6820 can occur, which would indicate a bearish market.
Trading Plan for EUR/USD and US Dollar Index for December 19, 2017
2017-12-19
Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair continues to consolidate looking to terminate into a standard flat or contracting triangle structure. It is expected to top out near 1.1860 levels in case of a flat, while prices should remain below 1.1860 levels in case of a triangle. In either cases, the EUR/USD pair is expected to stay below 1.1960 levels going forward, if bears are to stay in control. Resistance should be strong around 1.1840/50 levels, while support is seen at 1.1550 levels respectively. According to the wave counts, the pair is into its wave (3) lower as labelled here and is expected to push through 1.1500 levels at least. On the flip side, a break above 1.1860 and subsequently above 1.1960 would invalidate the following count.
Trading plan:
Please remain short for now, stop above 1.1960, target 1.1600 and 1.1500 levels.
US Dollar Index chart setups:
Technical outlook:
The US Dollar Index is also seen to be consolidating into a potential contracting triangle or flat as depicted above. If it is to form a triangle, prices would remain above 93.30 levels and a break out higher would be seen from here. On the other side, if it to form a flat structure, then prices may re-test 93.20/30 levels going forward. In both the cases, we are expecting a bullish break out through 94.80/95.00 levels and higher respectively. On the flip side, a break below 92.50 levels would confirm that the index is looking to produce other structures. The bullish count stays intact till prices remain broadly above 92.50 levels. Support comes in at 92.60, while resistance is seen at 95.00 levels respectively.
Trading plan:
Please remain long stop below 92.50 and target is 95.00 and 98.00 levels respectively.
Fundamental outlook:
No major fundamental events lined up for the day.
Good luck!
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