2018-01-10
Wave summary:
The decline from 136.64 has been strong and the pair is already testing the support at 133.89. A clear break below here will point lower to 132.21 as the next downside target. EUR/JPY will move lower as long as it stays below 134.58, while a break above this minor resistance will indicate that a corrective rally above 135.49 is developing, before declining again.
In the longer term, we are looking for the wave (E) lower to 123.43 to develop and complete the triangle consolidation, that has been developing since July 2008.
R3: 135.49
R2: 135.02
R1: 134.56
Pivot: 133.89
S1: 133.57
S2: 133.06
S3: 132.55
Trading recommendation:
We are short on EUR from 134.75. We will take half profit at 134.09 and a nice little 67 pips profit and lower our stop to 134.60 on the other half.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
Wave summary:
EUR/NZD has tested a low of 1.6587, just above our ideal target seen at 1.6571. This could be enough to fulfill the expected downside target and complete wave (ii). If this is the case, we will likely see minor support at 1.6595 protect the downside for a break above minor resistance at 1.6708 confirming a low is in place for a rally towards important resistance at 1.7026 and above here confirm wave (iii) higher is developing.
R3: 1.6849
R2: 1.6801
R1: 1.6740
Pivot: 1.6708
S1: 1.6637
S2: 1.6595
S3: 1.6587
Trading recommendation:
We are short half a position EUR from 1.6795 we will lower our stop + revers to 1.6715 and we will place a take profit at 1.6610. If done we will place a EUR buy order at 1.6715.
Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
GBP/USD has been quite volatile and corrective recently forming a squeeze towards the resistance level of 1.3610. GBP has been the dominant currency in the pair but recently USD has been quite successful with its pressure to restrict further bullish momentum in this pair. This week, GBP has been quite negative with the economic reports which affected the impulsive bullish pressure in the pair. Today, GBP Manufacturing Production report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%, Good Trade Balance report is expected to show a slight increase in deficit to -10.9B from the previous figure of -10.8B, Construction Output is expected to increase to 0.7% from the previous negative value of -1.7%, Industrial Production is also expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0% and NIESR GDP Estimate is expected to show an increase from the previous value of 0.5%. On the other hand, despite worse economic reports recently, USD managed to continue its momentum against GBP signaling further bearish pressure in the short term. Today, US Import Price report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.7%, Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to be unchanged at 0.7%, and Crude Oil Inventories is expected to show less deficit at -3.9M from the previous figure of -7.4M. As for the current scenario, US economic reports are forecasted to have mixed results whereas GBP seemed quite optimistic amid the upbeat economic reports today. A good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market today whereas USD is expected to gain momentum over GBP, if US economic reports come better than expected today or GBP fails to meet the expected readings.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently residing inside the corrective volatile structure just below the resistance level of 1.3610. As for the current scenario, price is expected to move down towards the trend line support around 1.3450 area before showing some bullish intervention along the way. As the price remains above 1.33 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue which might result in breaking above 1.3610 with a target towards 1.3850.
Fundamental analysis of EUR/JPY for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
EUR/JPY has been quite impulsive with the bearish pressure recently which lead the price to fall back from the 136.70 price area to 134.00 support area. JPY has been quite impulsive with its gains recently due to positive economic reports published this week. Recently Japan's Average Cash Earnings report was published with a significant increase to 0.9% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.6% and the Consumer Confidence report showed a slight decrease to 44.7 from the previous figure of 44.9 which was expected to increase to 45.1. The worse economic report did not have significant impact on the gains of JPY. Today JPY 10y Bond Auction report was published with an increase to 0.08|3.7 from the previous figure of 0.06|3.7. On the EUR side, today French Industrial Production report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.4% from the previous value of 1.9% and German 10y Bond Auction is going to be held which previous was at 0.30|1.1. As of the current scenario, there will be no key economic reports or events in the Eurozone today to support EUR gains over JPY whereas tomorrow Japan's Leading Indicators report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 108.7 from the previous value of 106.5. If the upcoming economic reports are published better than expected, then JPY is likely to extend gains in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below 134.00 support area and dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates that the bears are the stronger party in the pair. A daily close above or below 134.50 will lead to further definite trend direction in this pair but as of now, the bearish bias is expected to continue as the price remains below 135 price area with a daily close.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
USD/CAD has breached above 1.2450 price area recently having the recent price action as a false break. CAD has been putting pressure on USD recently amid the positive employment reports last week whereas USD was struggling due to the mixed economic reports. Today, Canada's Building Permits report is going to be published which expected to decrease to -0.7% from the previous value of 3.5%. On the other hand, today US Import Prices report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.7%, Final Wholesale Inventories report is expected to be unchanged at 0.7%, and Crude Oil Inventories report is expected to show less deficit at -3.9M from the previous figure of -7.4M. The economic reports from the US are expected to be quite mixed and CAD is likely to remain weak. So if the expectations are met today, then USD will be able to gain momentum over CAD for a certain period in the coming days. To sum up, a good amount of retracement is expected in this pair before CAD pushes the price much lower against USD in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is currently staying above 1.2450 with a daily close, whereas the current momentum is also signaling bullish momentum with a target towards the dynamic level of 20 EMA and 1.2620 area. The recent price action seems to be a False Break below 1.2450 which empowers the bulls to push higher against the bears in this impulsive bearish trend. As the price remains above 1.2450 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
Technical analysis of gold for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
Gold price has broken the triangle pattern we mentioned yesterday to the downside. As long as price is below $1,322 I expect Gold to move towards $1,290-80 at first. Gold short-term trend is changing to bearish. As said before, Gold is in a similar place when it was trading at $1,237 but from the bearish point of view.
Blue lines - triangle pattern (broken)
Red line - support
Gold price is near its highs but price has taken a downward turn. Price is making lower lows and lower highs in the 4-hour chart. The bearish divergence signs are finally proving themselves. Critical support is at $1,305. Breaking below that level will confirm our bearish view and accelerate the move lower.
Blue lines - price expectation
Gold price has broken out of the Daily cloud resistance and now I expect at least a back test of the broken cloud resistance back towards $1,285 at least. I'm bearish about Gold.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
Red line - support
Gold price is near its highs but price has taken a downward turn. Price is making lower lows and lower highs in the 4-hour chart. The bearish divergence signs are finally proving themselves. Critical support is at $1,305. Breaking below that level will confirm our bearish view and accelerate the move lower.
Blue lines - price expectationGold price has broken out of the Daily cloud resistance and now I expect at least a back test of the broken cloud resistance back towards $1,285 at least. I'm bearish about Gold.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
Overview:
Pivot : 0.7165.
The NZD/USD pair is expected to continue rising from the levels of 0.7120 or 0.7185 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7120 which represents the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level on the H1 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame.
Accordingly, the NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7165. So, buy above the level of 0.7165 with the first target at 0.7195 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7232. Also, it might be noted that the level of 0.7232 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. Moreover, major resistance will be set at the level of 0.7266.
On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the NZD/USD pair breaks through the support levels of 0.7120 and 0.7185, a further decline to 0.7060 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
Overview:
The USD/CHF pair broke resistance which turned to strong support at the levels of 0.9786 and 9756 yesterday. The level of 0.9786 coincides with a golden ratio (38.2% of Fibonacci), which is expected to act as major support today. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is considered overbought because it is above 70. The RSI is still signaling that the trend is upward as it is still strong above the moving average (100). This suggests that the pair will probably go up in coming hours. Accordingly, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend. In other words, buy orders are recommended above 0.9756 with the first target at the level of 0.9835. From this point, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.9869 and further to the level of 0.9889. The level of 0.9889 will act as a strong resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.9913. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the support level of 0.9756, then this scenario may become invalidated.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
Daily Outlook
A recent bullish breakout above the downtrend line took place on May 22. Since then, the market has been bullish as depicted on the chart.
This resulted in a quick bullish advance towards next price zones around 0.7150-0.7230 (Key-Zone) and 0.7310-0.7380 which was temporarily breached to the upside.
Recent bearish pullback was executed towards the price zone of 0.7310-0.7380 (newly-established demand-zone) which failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair.
Re-consolidation below the price level of 0.7300 enhanced the bearish side of the market. This brought the NZD/USD pair again towards 0.7230-0.7150 (Key-Zone) which failed to pause the ongoing bearish momentum.
An atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which initiated bearish reversal.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). That's why, a bullish pullback is expected towards 0.7050.
Moreover, further bullish advance should be expected towards 0.7250 if the current bullish momentum is maintained above the key-level of 0.7150.
The current price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 is considered a prominent Supply-Zone to be watched for SELL positions if enough bearish rejection is expressed on a daily basis.
On the other hand, the price zone of 0.7050-0.6980 has turned to be a newly-established demand zone to be watched for BUY entries if any bearish pullback occurs.
Trade Recommendations:
Conservative traders should wait for daily closure below the price level of 0.7140 as a valid SELL signal. Initial T/P levels should be located at 0.7050 and 0.6980.
GBP/USD analysis for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.3481. Anyway, according to the 1H time – frame, I found a fake breakout of the support cluster, which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a hidden bullish divergence on the moving average oscillator and bullish outside bar, which is a sign of strength. My advice is to watch for potential buying opportunities. The upwad targets are set at the price of 1.3580 and at the price of 1.3610,
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.3579
R2: 1.3620
R3: 1.3655
Support levels:
S1: 1.3503
S2: 1.3465
S3: 1.3425
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
EUR/USD analysis for January 10, 2018
2018-01-10
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2016. According to the daily time – frame, I found a successful rejection from the support (a swing high became resistance), which is a sign that selling looks risky. I also found a bulish engulfing candle pattern, which is another sign of strength. The upward target is set at the price of 1.2080.
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.1970
R2: 1.2002
R3: 1.2030
Support levels:
S1: 1.1910
S2: 1.1880
S3: 1.1850
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
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