2018-01-31
USD/CAD has been quite impulsive with declines today after certain indecision and correction below 1.24 price area. Despite recent upbeat economic reports, USD failed to sustain the gain over CAD which indicates severe weakness of USD in the coming days. Moreover, President Trump spoke recently about a tax rate reduction, so his speech is expected to have a good impact on the growth of the currency in the future. The US high impact economic reports like NFP, Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate report are to be published on Friday. Today, US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is due which is expected decrease to 186k from the previous figure of 250k, Employment Cost Index is expected to decrease to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.7%, Chicago PMI report is expected to decrease to 64.2 from the previous figure of 67.6, Pending Home Sales report is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.2%, and Crude Oil Inventories are expected to increase to 0.1M from the previous figure of -1.1M. Moreover, FOMC Statement and Federal Funds Rate report is going to be released today which is expected to be unchanged at 1.50%. On the other hand, today Canada's GDP report is expected to show an increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.0%, RMPI is expected to decrease to -2.2% from the previous value of 5.5%, and IPPI report is expected to decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 1.4%. As for the current scenario, the economic reports from the US and Canada are expected to reveal mixed results. Amid high impact economic reports which are due today, a good amount of volatility is setting the tone on the market this week. Though CAD is leading with the better gains and momentum, certain spikes may lead to a short-term counter trend move in this pair along the way towards 1.21 support area.
Now let us look at the technical chart. The price is holding below the 1.24 resistance area and dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates the strength of the bears in the pair. Besides, the price is currently proceeding lower with an impulsive bearish pressure which is expected to reach 1.21 support area in the coming days. Though certain correction and volatility can be observed along the way but as the price remains below 1.24 price area the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair posted a rebound and broke above its 50-period moving average. In addition, the 50-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index stays above its neutrality level at 50.
To conclude, as long as 0.737 is not broken, look for a further bounce with targets at 0.7420 and 0.7445 in extension.
The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels, while the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 0.7420, 0.7445, and 0.7490.
Support levels: 0.7260, 0.7245, and 0.7220.
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
Our first upside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair turned bearish as the prices broke below the rising trend line. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is calling for a drop.
Therefore, below 154.45, look for a new decline with targets at 153.20 and 152.80 in extension
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a LONG position is recommended above 154.45 with the target at 155.
Strategy: SELL, Stop loss at 154.45, Take profit at 153.20
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 155.00, 155.85, and 156.35
Support levels: 153.20, 152.80, and 152.40.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
USD/CHF is under pressure. Despite the recent rebound from 0.9305, the pair is still capped by a declining 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is mixed with a bearish bias. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
To sum up, as long as 0.9365 is not surpassed, look for a new drop with targets at 0.9290 and 0.9250 in extension.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9365, take profit at 0.9290.
Resistance levels: 0.9395, 0.9440, and 0.9500
Support levels: 0.9290, 0.9250, and 0.9200.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2200 where recent evidence of the bearish rejection was expressed (Note the Monthly candlestick of last September).
Daily Outlook
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.
This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.
The daily persistence above 1.2150-1.2200 confirms a bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.
Otherwise, a bearish pullback may occur towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakout below 1.2160 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
Daily Outlook
In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated an upcoming bearish reversal.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why the further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
Evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around the recent low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.
The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.
That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.
A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry is still expected.
Trade Recommendations:
Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).
S/L should be located above 0.7470. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150 and 0.7090.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 108.40. On a 30-minute chart, the pair marked a day-low of 108.38 yesterday (January 30) before posting a rebound. Currently, the pair is trading at levels around the ascending 20-period moving average, which has just crossed above the 50-period one. And the relative strength index has managed to stay above the neutrality level of 50, indicating a lack of downward momentum for the pair. As long as intraday bullishness is maintained, the pair should revisit 109.40 on the upside.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a Short position is recommended to be below 108.40 with a target of 109.20.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 108.40, take profit at 109.40.
Resistance levels: 109.05, 109.40, and 109.80
Support levels: 108.00, 107.60, and 107.30.
2018-01-31
All our upside targets which we predicted in yesterday's analysis have been hit. The pair posted a rebound and broke above its 50-period moving average. In addition, the 50-period moving average is turning up. The relative strength index stays above its neutrality level at 50.
To conclude, as long as 0.737 is not broken, look for a further bounce with targets at 0.7420 and 0.7445 in extension.
The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines are showing the support levels, while the green line is indicating the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 0.7420, 0.7445, and 0.7490.
Support levels: 0.7260, 0.7245, and 0.7220.
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
Our first upside target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair turned bearish as the prices broke below the rising trend line. The downward momentum is further reinforced by both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages. The relative strength index is calling for a drop.
Therefore, below 154.45, look for a new decline with targets at 153.20 and 152.80 in extension
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a LONG position is recommended above 154.45 with the target at 155.
Strategy: SELL, Stop loss at 154.45, Take profit at 153.20
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 155.00, 155.85, and 156.35
Support levels: 153.20, 152.80, and 152.40.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
USD/CHF is under pressure. Despite the recent rebound from 0.9305, the pair is still capped by a declining 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is mixed with a bearish bias. Even though a continuation of the technical rebound cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
To sum up, as long as 0.9365 is not surpassed, look for a new drop with targets at 0.9290 and 0.9250 in extension.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: SELL, stop loss at 0.9365, take profit at 0.9290.
Resistance levels: 0.9395, 0.9440, and 0.9500
Support levels: 0.9290, 0.9250, and 0.9200.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2200 where recent evidence of the bearish rejection was expressed (Note the Monthly candlestick of last September).
Daily Outlook
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.
This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.
The daily persistence above 1.2150-1.2200 confirms a bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.
Otherwise, a bearish pullback may occur towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakout below 1.2160 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
Daily Outlook
In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated an upcoming bearish reversal.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why the further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
Evident signs of bullish recovery were expressed around the recent low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.
The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.
That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.
A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry is still expected.
Trade Recommendations:
Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).
S/L should be located above 0.7470. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150 and 0.7090.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 31, 2018
2018-01-31
USD/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish bias above 108.40. On a 30-minute chart, the pair marked a day-low of 108.38 yesterday (January 30) before posting a rebound. Currently, the pair is trading at levels around the ascending 20-period moving average, which has just crossed above the 50-period one. And the relative strength index has managed to stay above the neutrality level of 50, indicating a lack of downward momentum for the pair. As long as intraday bullishness is maintained, the pair should revisit 109.40 on the upside.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a Short position is recommended to be below 108.40 with a target of 109.20.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 108.40, take profit at 109.40.
Resistance levels: 109.05, 109.40, and 109.80
Support levels: 108.00, 107.60, and 107.30.
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