2018-01-19
Overview:
The USD/CHF pair opened below the weekly pivot point (0.9592). It continued to move downwards from the level of 0.9592 to the bottom around 0.9541. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9592 followed by 0.9644, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9481. Furthermore, the moving average (100) starts signaling a downward trend; therefore, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9541. So it will be good to sell at 0.9541 with the first target of 0.9481. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9422. The strong daily support is seen at the 0.9422 level, which represents the double bottom on the H4 chart. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9592 and 0.9422 in coming hours. The price area of 0.9592 remains a significant resistance zone. Thus, the trend is still bearish as long as the level of 0.9592 is not broken. On the contrary, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the resistance level of 0.9592, then a stop loss should be placed at 0.9644.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for January 19, 2018
2018-01-19
Overview :
As expected; the NZD/USD pair continues to move upwards from the areas of 0.7290. Yesterday, the pair rose from the level of 0.7290 to 0.7314. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7331 and 0.7355. However, the support levels are seen at 0.7290 and 0.7258. So, we expect the price to set above the strong support at the levels of0.7290 and 0.7258; because the price is in a bullish channel now. Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7290 and 0.7331. In overall, we still prefer the bullish scenario as long as the price is above the level of 0.7309. Furthermore, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the top at 0.7331, the market will rise further to 0.7355. On the other hand, if the price closes below the strong support of 0.7258, the best location for a stop loss order is seen below 0.7258; hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong support at 0.7236 to test it again. The level of 0.7236 will form a double bottom.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for January 19, 2018
2018-01-19
CHF has been quite impulsive with the gains over USD recently. So the pair has been trading in a non-volatile manner since it broke below 0.97 support area. Due to recent weakness of USD amid downbeat economic reports, CHF gained momentum which is expected to extend further in the coming days. Today, Switzerland's PPI report was published with a decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.6% which was expected to be at 0.4%. Despite the worse-than-expected economic report from Switzerland today, the CHF gains are still quite strong against USD that indicates severe weakness of USD at the current moment. On the USD side, yesterday a Building Permits report was published with an unchanged reading along with disappointing economic reports on Housing Starts and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Today, US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 97.0 from the previous figure of 95.9, Prelim UoM Inflation Expectation is expected to be neutral where previous it was at 2.7%, and FOMC Member Quarles is going to speak today on the Fed's key interest rate and future monetary policy. His speech is also expected to neutral and have a minor impact on further USD growth. As for the current scenario, CHF is expected to continue its gain further in the coming days against USD until the US comes up with better economic reports.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently on its way towards 0.9450 support area with an impulsive price action and pressure. The price has been non-volatile and impulsive with the bearish gains. Without further correction the pair is expected to touch the support of 0.9450 in the short term. As the price remains below 0.97 with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue further.
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for January 19, 2018
2018-01-19
Daily Outlook
In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.
The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.
That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7240 and 0.7320.
A quick bullish movement is expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where price action should be watched for evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry.
Trade Recommendations:
Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).
S/L should be located above 0.7450. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150 and 0.7090.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for January 19, 2018
2018-01-19
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450.
The current bullish breakout above 1.1450 allowed a quick bullish advance towards 1.2200 where recent evidence of bearish rejection was expressed (Note the Monthly candlestick of last September).
Daily Outlook
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, to pursue towards the mentioned target level, significant bearish pressure was needed to be applied against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
However, In November, recent price action around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415 indicated evident bullish recovery.
This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which has failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum so far.
Daily persistence above 1.2150-1.2200 confirms the depicted bullish continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2500.
Otherwise, bearish pullback will be expected towards 1.2070 before further bullish advancement can take place.
EUR/USD analysis for January 19, 2018
2018-01-19
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.2295. According to the 30M time – frame, I found a successful rejection of pivot resistance 1 at the price of 1.2281, which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the moving average oscillator, which is another sign of weaknesss. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.2223 and at the price of 1.2182.
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.2281
R2: 1.2323
R3: 1.2380
Support levels:
S1: 1.2180
S2: 1.2123
S3: 1.2080
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
GBP/USD analysis for January 19, 2018
2018-01-19
Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.3878. According to the 30M time – frame, I found a successful rejection of pivot resistance 1 at the price of 1.3936 (strong price action resistance), which is a sign that buying looks risky. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3829 (pivot support 1) and at the price of 1.3763 (pivot support 1).
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.3936
R2: 1.3979
R3: 1.4045
Support levels:
S1: 1.3829
S2: 1.3763
S3: 1.3719
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
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