2018-02-05
Wave summary:
We have seen the expected rally to 137.37 (the high has been seen at 137.50). This is more than enough to fulfill the target for the wave (D), and we should expect the wave (E) to take over for a decline to 123.43 anytime now. A break below minor support at 136.64 will be the first good indication that the wave (D) has completed and the wave (E) is developing, while a break below support at 135.93 will be needed to confirm the expected decline in the wave (E).
R3: 138.11
R2: 137.50
R1: 137.20
Pivot: 136.64
S1: 136.23
S2: 135.93
S3: 135.66
Trading recommendation:
We sold EUR at 137.30 and we will place our stop at 137.60.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 5, 2018
2018-02-05
Wave summary:
EUR/NZD has rallied nicely, and more upside is expected after a minor corrective set-back close to 1.6965 from where the next impulsive rally towards 1.7360 on the way higher to 1.7490 and 1.7777 should be launched.
R3: 1.7202
R2: 1.7147
R1: 1.7101
Pivot: 1.7054
S1: 1.7020
S2: 1.6998
S3: 1.6965
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6695 and we will move our stop higher to 1.6905
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 5, 2018
2018-02-05
All our downside targets which we predicted in previous analysis have been hit. NZD/USD is expected to move further down. The pair broke below the lower boundary of Bollinger Bands after opening with a bearish gap, which indicated the acceleration on the downside. Both declining 20-period and 50-period moving averages should push the prices lower. The relative strength index is capped by a falling trend line since February 1.
Therefore, below 0.7330, look for a new test with targets at 0.7265 and 0.7245 in extension.
The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 0.7375, 0.7400, and 0.7450.
Support levels: 0.7265, 0.7245, and 0.7200.
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 5, 2018
2018-02-05
GBP/JPY is under pressure. The pair retreated from 156.60 and broke below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages. In addition, the 20-period moving average is turning down. The relative strength index is capped by a declining trend line since February 2.
Therefore, below 156, look for a further decline with targets at 156.650 and 157 in extension.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a Long position is recommended to be above 156.00 with the target at 156.60.
Strategy: SELL, Stop loss at 156.00, Take profit at 154.60
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 156.60, 157.00, and 157.45
Support levels: 154.60, 154.10, and 153.70.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 5, 2018
2018-02-05
USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a rebound and broke above its 20-period moving average after hitting the rising 50-period moving average. The relative strength index is above its neutrality level at 50 and lacks downward momentum.
The U.S. Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 200,000 jobs in January, stronger than +177,000 expected. The jobless rate stayed at 4.1%, the lowest since 2000, and average hourly wages rose 2.9% on year, the fastest pace in more than eight years.
To conclude, as long as 0.9280 holds on the downside, look for a new rise with targets at 0.9340 and 0.9360 in extension.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9280, take profit at 0.9340.
Resistance levels: 0.9340, 0.9360, and 0.93700
Support levels: 0.9255, 0.9230, and 0.9200.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 5, 2018
2018-02-05
All our targets which we predicted in previous analysis have been hit. The pair is still expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair remains in a consolidation phase initiated at a high of 110.47 seen last Friday (February 2). Currently, it has crossed below the 20-period moving average while seeking support from the 50-period one. The relative strength index has lost the neutrality level of 50, indicating the possibility of an extension of the consolidation phase. In case the pair manages to emerge to the upside upon completing the consolidation phase, it is expected to return to 110.45 (around the high of Friday) and 110.75.
Therefore, as long as 109.20 is not broken, look for a further upside with targets at 110.10 and 110.35 in extension.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a Short position is recommended to be below 109.75 with a target of 109.50.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 109.75, take profit at 110.45.
Resistance levels: 110.45, 110.75, and 111.00
Support levels: 109.50, 109.20, and 108.75.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for February 5, 2018
2018-02-05
Monthly Outlook
In January 2015, the EUR/USD pair moved below the major demand levels near 1.2050-1.2100 (multiple previous bottoms set in July 2012 and June 2010). Hence, a long-term bearish target was projected toward 0.9450.
In March 2015, EUR/USD bears challenged the monthly demand level around 1.0500, which had been previously reached in August 1997.
In the longer term, the level of 0.9450 remains a projected target if any monthly candlestick achieves bearish closure below the depicted monthly demand level of 1.0500.
However, the EUR/USD pair has been trapped within the depicted consolidation range (1.0500-1.1450) until the current bullish breakout was executed above 1.1450 and recently above 1.2075.
Another bullish breakout above 1.2250 is being expressed on the chart. This hinders the bearish momentum allowing bullish advancement to occur towards 1.2750.
Daily Outlook
As anticipated, the ongoing bullish momentum allowed the EUR/USD pair to pursue further bullish advance towards 1.1415-1.1520 (Previous Daily Supply-Zone).
The daily supply zone failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, evident bullish breakout was expressed towards the price level of 1.2100 where the depicted Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was expressed.
Bearish target for the depicted Head and Shoulders pattern extends towards 1.1350. However, the market failed to apply significant bearish pressure against the mentioned zone (1.1415-1.1520).
Instead, In November, evident bullish recovery was manifested around the price zone of 1.1520-1.1415.
This hindered further bearish decline which allowed the current bullish pullback to occur towards the price level of 1.2100 which failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum as well.
Daily persistence above 1.2470-1.2500 confirms a recent bullish flag continuation pattern with projected targets towards 1.2750.
Otherwise, bearish pullback may occur towards 1.2070 if a bearish breakout below 1.2160 is achieved on a daily basis (low probability).
NZD/USD Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for February 5, 20182018-02-05
Daily Outlook
In July 2017, an atypical Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed on the depicted chart which indicated upcoming bearish reversal.
As expected, the price level of 0.7050 failed to offer enough bullish support for the NZD/USD pair. That's why, further bearish decline was expected towards 0.6800 (Reversal pattern bearish target).
Evident signs of bullish recovery was expressed around the recent low (0.6780). An inverted Head and Shoulders pattern was expressed around these price levels.
The price zone of 0.7140-0.7250 (prominent Supply-Zone) failed to pause the ongoing bullish momentum. Instead, a bullish breakout above 0.7250 was expressed on January 11.
That's why, the current bullish movement extended towards the price levels of 0.7320 and 0.7390.
A quick bullish movement was expected towards the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390) where evident bearish rejection and a valid SELL entry is still expected.
Trade Recommendations:
Conservative traders should be looking for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the depicted supply zone (0.7320-0.7390).
S/L should be located above 0.7450. T/P levels should be located around 0.7230, 0.7150 and 0.7090.
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for February 05, 20192018-02-05
Overview:
The weekly pivot is seen at the level of 1.2469. The EUR/USD pair rose from the level of 1.2414 towards 1.2469. Now, the current price is set at 1.2443. On the H1 chart, the resistance is seen at the levels of 1.2500 and 1.2538. Besides, the weekly support 1 is seen at the level of 0.9831. Today, the EUR/USD pair is continuing to move in a bullish trend from the new support level of 1.2414, to form a bullish channel. Amid the previous events, we expect the pair to move between 1.2414 and 1.2538. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.2440 (the current price) with the first target at 1.2500 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.2538 (double top). Nevertheless, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.2414, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 1.2414. The market will decline further to 1.2338 in order to return to the doublt bottom. Additionally, a breakout of that target will move the pair further downwards to 1.2338. However, the market is still in an uptrend. We still prefer the bullish scenario.
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for February 05, 20182018-02-05
Overview:
The GBP/USD pair was dialectical as it was trading in a narrow sideways channel, the market showed signs of instability.
Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.4217 and 1.4044. Resistance and support are seen at the levels of 1.4217 (also, the double top is already set at the point of 1.4347) and 1.4044 respectively.
Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious while placing orders in this area. So, we need to wait until the sideways channel has completed. The current price is seen at 1.4115 which represents a key level today. The level of 1.4217 will act as the first resistance today.
Hence, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 1.4217, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the strong resistance level of 1.4217. Sell deals are recommended below the level of 1.4217 with the first target at 1.4044.
If the trend breaks the support level of 1.4044, the pair is likely to move downwards continuing the development of a bearish trend to the level 1.3970.
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