2018-02-07
Wave summary:
EUR/JPY has followed the expected path to perfection and the corrective rally we were looking for could and should be complete soon for more downside pressure towards 133.01 and 131.24 and the next downside targets on the way lower to the long-term ideal wave (E) target at 123.43.
Short-term a break below minor support at 135.16 will indicate the corrective rally from 133.96 has completed and the next decline is developing.
R3: 136.52
R2: 136.15
R1: 135.70
Pivot: 135.16
S1: 134.49
S2: 133.96
S3: 133.65
Trading recommendation:
We sold EUR at 134.70 and again at 135.60 for a average price of 136.45. We will place our stop at 137.00
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for February 7, 2018
2018-02-07
Wave summary:
We have seen the expected correction lower, but not yet quite a deep as expected (the low has been seen at 1.6825). As long as minor resistance at 1.6976 is able to cap the upside, we still expect a final dip closer to 1.6808 with an outside chance of moving lower to 1.6740 before the next impulsive rally should commence, for a rally towards 1.7479 and 1.7777.
R3: 1.7101
R2: 1.7039
R1: 1.6976
Pivot: 1.6883
S1: 1.6825
S2: 1.6808
S3: 1.6740
Trading recommendation:
Our stop at 1.6905 was hit for a nice profit of 210 pips on the final 50% position. We will buy EUR again at 1.6815 or upon a break above 1.6976.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for February 7, 2018
2018-02-07
NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. The pair posted a inverted head & shoulder pattern, which confirmed a bullish reversal. The 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period one. The relative strength index is supported by the ascending trend line since February 2.
Therefore, as long as 0.7275 is not broken, look for a further rise with targets at 0.7345 and 0.7380 in extension.
Therefore, below 0.7330, look for a new test with targets at 0.7265 and 0.7245 in extension.
The black line shows the pivot point. Currently, the price is above the pivot point, which is a signal for long positions. If it remains below the pivot point, it will indicate short positions. The red lines show the support levels, while the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 0.7345, 0.7380, and 0.7410.
Support levels: 0.7255, 0.7225, and 0.7200.
Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for February 7, 2018
2018-02-07
GBP/USD has recently rejected off the 1.3850-1.3950 area with a daily close which is currently expected to proceed higher in the coming days. USD has been quite dominant this week over GBP, which was a result of the positive Employment Change report published without any change in Unemployment Rate. The positive Employment Change report result empowered the USD to gain momentum for a certain period whereas currently GBP is expected to gain momentum. Ahead of the Official Bank Rate report which is expected to be unchanged at 0.50% and Inflation report to be published tomorrow, today GBP Halifax HPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous negative value of -0.6%. On the other hand, today USD FOMC Member Dudley is going to speak about the upcoming monetary policies and interest rate decision which is expected to increase in March 2018. Additionally, today USD Crude Oil Inventories report is going to be published as well which is expected to decrease to 3.2M from the previous figure of 6.8M. As of the current scenario, ahead of the GBP high impact economic reports to be published this week, a good amount of volatility is expected to hit the market and if GBP economic reports results to positive which is more likely, GBP is expected to gain impulsive momentum over USD in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. After the recent bearish move off the 1.4250 resistance area having a Bearish Divergence, the price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and support area of 1.3850-1.3950. As the price remains above 1.3850-1.3950 area and dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue to push the price higher towards 1.4250 in the coming days.
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for February 7, 2018
2018-02-07
GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bullish outlook. Despite the pair breaking below its 20-period and 50-period moving averages, it is still trading above the key support at 152.05, which should limit the downside potential. Even though a continuation of consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
To conclude, as long as 152.05 holds on the downside, look for a further upside with targets at 153.35 and 153.90 in extension.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the direction opposite to the forecast, a short position is recommended to be below 152.05 with the target at 151.25.
Strategy: BUY, Stop loss at 152.05, Take profit at 153.35
Chart Explanation: the black line shows the pivot point. The price above the pivot point indicates long positions; and when it is below the pivot point, it indicates short positions. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Resistance levels: 153.35, 153.90, and 154.40
Support levels: 151.25, 150.15, and 149.65.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for February 7, 2018
2018-02-07
Our first target which we predicted in previous analysis has been hit. USD/CHF is still expected to trade in the upper range. Although the pair posted a pullback, a support base at 0.9315 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilization. The rising 50-period moving average is playing a support role.
To sum up, as long as 0.9335 is not broken, look for a further rise with targets at 0.9395 and 0.9425 in extension.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The present price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, and the price below the pivot point indicates a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance levels. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 0.9315, take profit at 0.9425.
Resistance levels: 0.9395, 0.9425, and 0.9465
Support levels: 0.9300, 0.9275, and 0.9240.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for February 7, 2018
2018-02-07
USD/JPY has been volatile and corrective, recently having resistance of the dynamic level and being above the support area of 108.50-109.20. Despite having positive Employment Change report of USD on Friday, JPY sustained the bearish momentum which resulted the price to reside between the 108.50-109.20 support area. Today, JPY Average Cash Earning report was published better than expected - at 0.7% which was expected to be at 0.6% decreasing from the previous value of 0.9%, and Leading Indicators report showed a slight decrease to 107.9% from the previous value of 108.3% which was expected to be at 108.1% The positive economic report helped the regain momentum after the recent bounce off the support area with impulsive USD gains over JPY. On the USD side, today, FOMC Member Dudley is going to speak about the upcoming monetary policies and the interest rate decision which is expected to have a rise on March 2018. Moreover, Crude Oil Inventories report is going to be published today as well which is expected to decrease to 3.2M from the previous figure of 6.8M. To sum up, JPY is currently quite unstoppable having positive economic reports fueling the gains and expected to dominate USD in the coming days taking the price much lower below the 108.50 support area.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bearish above the 108.50-109.20 support area where the price is expected to proceed much lower as of the current market impulsive bearish pressure. Having dynamic level of 20 EMA as a resistance, the bears in this pair seemed quite powerful currently and a daily close below 108.50 will lead to further impulsive bearish pressure in the pair with a target towards the support area of 107.00 in the coming days.
Technical analysis of USD/JPY for February 7, 2018
2018-02-07
Our first target which we predicted in yesterday's analysis has been hit. The pair continues a rebound initiated at a low of 108.43 seen yesterday (February 6). Currently support is located at 108.80 while striking against the upper Bollinger band. Extra support is provided by the ascending 20-period moving average, which has crossed above the 50-period one. The relative strength index is still going strong, indicating continued upward momentum for the pair. As intraday bullishness persists, the pair should proceed toward the overhead resistance at 109.70 before advancing toward 110.05.
Alternatively, if the price moves in the opposite direction, a Short position is recommended to be below 108.80 with a target of 109.70.
Chart Explanation: The black line shows the pivot point. The current price above the pivot point indicates a bullish position, while the price below the pivot point is a signal for a short position. The red lines show the support levels, and the green line indicates the resistance level. These levels can be used to enter and exit trades.
Strategy: BUY, stop loss at 108.80, take profit at 109.75.
Resistance levels: 109.70, 110.75, and 111.00
Support levels: 108.40, 108.10, and 107.75.
Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for February 7, 20182018-02-07
NZD/USD has been quite impulsive with the bullish gains after bouncing off the support area of 0.7250 recently. The price has been quite impulsive with the bearish pressure after the positive USD Employment Change report was published on Friday but as expected the bearish pressure lasted for a certain period before the bulls took charge. Today, NZD Employment Change report was published at 0.5% which was better than the expectation of 0.4% but the rate decreased from the previous value of 2.2%, Unemployment Rate decreased to 4.5% from the previous value of 4.6% which was expected to increase to 4.7%, and Labor Cost Index was published with a decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.7% which was expected to be at 0.5%. NZD having mixed economic reports did confuse the market sentiment whereas NZD is currently struggling to sustain the gains it has received recently. On the USD side, today, FOMC Member Dudley is going to speak about the upcoming monetary policies and the interest rate decision which is expected to have a rise on March 2018. Moreover, Crude Oil Inventories report is going to be published today as well which is expected to decrease to 3.2M from the previous figure of 6.8M. As of the current scenario, Corrective market sentiment is expected to be published as the recent NZD economic reports failed to provide the required push in the market, but still NZD is expected to have an upper hand over USD in the coming days until USD comes up with any positive economic report to support its gains.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA and the 0.7250 support area. The recent bullish Engulfing bar has already engulfed a certain portion of the bearish pressure in the market which is expected to push the price much higher towards the 0.7450 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above the 0.7250 support area, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
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