USDJPY Fundamental Analysis – May 31st 2018


  • US Personal Income and Personal Spending: US Personal Income for April is predicted to increase by 0.3% monthly and Personal Spending is predicted to increase by 0.4% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Personal Income for March which increased by 0.3% monthly and to Personal Spending which increased by 0.3% monthly. Real Personal Spending for April is predicted to increase by 0.2% monthly. Forex traders can compare this to Real Personal Spending for March which increased by 0.4% monthly. The PCE Deflator for April is predicted to increase 0.2% monthly and by 2.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the PCE Deflator for March which was reported flat at 0.0% monthly and which increased by 2.0% annualized. The PCE Core Deflator for April is predicted to increase by 0.1% monthly and by 1.8% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to the PCE Core Deflator for March which increased by 0.2% monthly and by 1.9% annualized.
  • US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of May 26th are predicted at 230K and US Continuing Claims for the week of May 19th are predicted at 1,733K. Forex traders can compare this to US Initial Jobless Claims for the week of May 19th which were reported at 234K and to US Continuing Claims for the week of May 12th which were reported at 1,741K.
  • US Chicago PMI: The US Chicago PMI for May is predicted at 58.0. Forex traders can compare this to the US Chicago PMI for April which was reported at 57.6.
  • US Pending Home Sales: US Pending Home Sales for April are predicted to increase by 0.5% monthly and by 1.1% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to US Pending Home Sales for March which increased by 0.4% monthly and which decreased by 4.4% annualized.
Here are the key factors to keep in mind today for Japanese Yen trades:
  • Japanese Industrial Production: Preliminary Japanese Industrial Production for April increased by 0.3% monthly and by 2.5% annualized. Economists predicted an increase of 1.4% monthly and of 3.6% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Industrial Production for March which increased by 1.4% monthly and by 2.4% annualized.
  • Japanese Buying Foreign Bonds and Japanese Buying Foreign Stocks/Foreign Buying Japanese Bonds and Foreigners Buying Japanese Stocks: Japanese Buying Foreign Bonds for May 25th was reported at -¥717.0B and Japanese Buying Foreign Stocks was reported at ¥255.8B. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Buying Foreign Bonds for May 18th which was reported at ¥966.5B and to Japanese Buying Foreign Stocks which was reported at ¥178.6B. Foreign Buying Japanese Bonds for May 25th was reported at -¥216.7B and Foreigners Buying Japanese Stocks was reported at -¥380.0B. Forex traders can compare this to Foreign Buying Japanese Bonds for May 18th which was reported at -¥150.9B and to Foreigners Buying Japanese Stocks which was reported at ¥97.1B.
  • Japanese Housing Starts and Construction Orders: Japanese Housing Starts for April increased by 0.3% annualized to 0.992M units. Economists predicted a decrease of 8.9% annualized to 0.900M units. Forex traders can compare this to Japanese Housing Starts for March which decreased by 8.3% annualized to 0.895M units. Construction Orders for April increased by 4.0% annualized. Forex traders can compare this to Construction Orders for March which decreased by 4.0% annualized.
Should price action for the USDJPY remain inside the or breakdown below the 108.350 to 109.050 zone the following trade set-up is recommended:
  • Timeframe: D1
  • Recommendation: Short Position
  • Entry Level: Short Position @ 108.700
  • Take Profit Zone: 104.600 – 105.250
  • Stop Loss Level: 109.800
Should price action for the USDJPY breakout above 109.050 the following trade set-up is recommended:
  • Timeframe: D1
  • Recommendation: Long Position
  • Entry Level: Long Position @ 109.250
  • Take Profit Zone: 110.800 – 111.400
  • Stop Loss Level: 108.700

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