2018-06-29
Technical outlook:
The EUR/USD pair rallied as expected and discussed yesterday. Believe it or not, the probability for a push towards 1.1850 and higher levels is increasing now. The rally from yesterday's lows needs to complete 5 waves to confirm further upside. We shall bring more updates as it happens. Please note that the Daily chart presented here suggests a deeper correction (rally) into 1.2000/50 resistance zone before the drop begins. Looking into the wave counts as well, the EURUSD pair is probably heading towards a more complex construction of wave (4), towards 1.2050 levels before resuming lower again. Only a drop below yesterdays' low would change the existing bullish scenario.
Trading plan:
Aggressive traders remain long, stop below 1.1500 levels, target 1.1850 and 1.2050.
Fundamental outlook:
Watch out for German Unemployment Change and Claims at 0355 AM EST followed by Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index at 0500 AM EST.
Good luck!
Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for June 29, 2018
2018-06-29
NZD/USD has been quite bullish today after being dominated by USD since the price broke below 0.7250 area with a daily close. NZD has been quite positive with the economic reports this week but it actually gained momentum over USD on the weakness for worse economic reports on the USD side.
This week, NZD Trade Balance report was published with an increase to 294M from the previous figure of 193M which was expected to be at 100M, ANZ Business Confidence increased in deficit -39.0 from the previous figure of -27.2 and Official Cash Rate report was published unchanged as expected at 1.75%. Today NZD Building Consent report was published with a significant increase to 7.1% from the previous negative value of -3.6% which is indeed a great improvement. As a result, NZD is currently being observed to gain good momentum over USD in the process.
On the USD side, after a decrease in Final GDP from 2.2% to 2.0% yesterday, USD lost some grounds against NZD in the process. Today USD Core PCE Price Index report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%, Personal Spending is expected to decrease to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.6%, Personal Income is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3%, Chicago PMI is expected to decrease to 60.1 from the previous figure of 62.7 and Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to have slight decrease to 99.1 from the previous figure of 99.3.
As of the current scenario, USD economic reports to be published are forecasted to be dovish and expected to weaken the USD gains in the process whereas NZD is currently expected to gain momentum being backed by positive economic reports published recently. To sum up, NZD is expected to have an upper hand over USD in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bullish in nature which is expected to push higher towards the resistance area of 0.68 to 0.69 area. Later, if the price manages to break above 0.69 with a daily close, a further bullish pressure is expected to push the price higher towards 0.7150 area in the future. Having strong Bullish Divergence backing up the bullish momentum, the price is expected to push higher as it remains above 0.67 with a daily close.
USD/CHF Testing Major Resistance, Watch For The Drop
2018-06-29
USD/CHF is testing major resistance at 0.9987 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance, bearish divergence) and a strong reaction could occur from here pushing prices all the way down to major support at 0.9920 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 99% and also sees bearish divergence vs price signaling that a reversal could be impending.
Sell below 0.9987. Stop loss at 1.0020. Take profit at 0.9920.
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Trading Plan for USD/JPY for June 29, 2018
2018-06-29
Technical outlook:
The USD/JPY Daily chart might be suggesting that the pair has room to correct lower. At this moment, it looks range bound since it is trading between 108.20 and 111.20 levels since long and that it needs to break either of them to confirm the further direction of the trend. The higher probability remains lower looking at other USD counterpart pairs topping out yesterday. But a sustained push above 111.20 levels would indicate further strength in the pair ahead. Looking into the wave counts, the USDJPY seems to have rallied into an impulse wave early between 104.60 and 111.20/30 labeled as 5 waves here. The subsequent drop might be into wave B as labeled above; and if this count holds true, then the next wave C should be pushing lower as shown here.
Trading plan:
Aggressive traders might go short now, with a stop above 111.30 levels target 107.50.
Fundamental outlook:
Watch out for German Unemployment Rate and Claims at 0355 AM EST followed by Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index at 0500 AM EST.
Good luck!
Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY, June 29, 2018
2018-06-29
In Asia, Japan will release the All Industries Activity m/m, Flash Manufacturing PMI, and National Core CPI y/y data, and the US will release some Economic Data, such as Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI. So, there is a probability the USD/JPY will move with a low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Resistance. 3: 111.09.
Resistance. 2: 110.88.
Resistance. 1: 110.66.
Support. 1: 110.38.
Support. 2: 110.17.
Support. 3: 109.96.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD, June 29, 2018
2018-06-29
When the European market opens, some Economic Data will be released such as Belgian NBB Business Climate, Flash Services PMI, Flash Manufacturing PMI, German Flash Services PMI, German Flash Manufacturing PMI, French Flash Services PMI, and French Flash Manufacturing PMI. The US will release the Economic Data too, such as Flash Services PMI and Flash Manufacturing PMI, so, amid the reports, EUR/USD will move in a medium volatility during this day.
TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.1620.
Strong Resistance:1.1613.
Original Resistance: 1.1602.
Inner Sell Area: 1.1591.
Target Inner Area: 1.1564.
Inner Buy Area: 1.1537.
Original Support: 1.1526.
Strong Support: 1.1515.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.1508.
Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Technical analysis of GBP/JPY for June 29, 2018
2018-06-29
If we look at the 4-Hour Charts of the GBP/JPY pair, we will see clearly that this pair already moves in Bearish bias, this already indicated by the price moving in a down slope channel and bellow the Exponential Moving Average Periode 200 but seems in a few days ahead as long as they not break out and close above the 146.61, the GBP/JPY pair will continue their downtrend to test their nearest Support level at 143.74 as their first target and the 143.17 as their secondary target.
(Disclaimer)
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 29, 2018
2018-06-29
The Swiss Franc at the 4-hour charts looks like still moving in a rectangle area between the 0.9803 and 0.9985, and it seems, they will get a significant movement or break out from their rectangle area on Jul 14, 2018, (New Moon & Moon Perigee phenomenon), for now, because the Stochastic already entered the Oversold area and the price is near the Lower Up Trendline, it seems that the USD/CHF pair will go up in a few days ahead to test their nearest Resistance at 0.9985 as long as this pair is not going down and close bellow 0.9891.
(Disclaimer)
Technical analysis of AUD/USD for June 29, 2018
2018-06-29
Overview:The AUD/USD pair fell from the level of 0.7474 towards 0.7348. Now, the price is set at 0.7371. The resistance is seen at the levels of 0.7426 and 0.7474. Moreover, the price area of 0.7474 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the AUD/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.7426 and 0.7257. If the AUD/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.7426, the market will decline further to 0.7474 as the first target. This would suggest the bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.7302 so as to test the daily support 2. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.7474, then this scenario may become invalidated.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for June 29, 2018
2018-06-29
The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 78.6% Fibonacci). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0055 (the double top on the H4 chart).Technical analysis on EUR/USD for June 29, 2018
2018-06-29
The EUR/USD pair has bounced strongly from 1.1530 as it did not violate the 1.1507 low from June 21st. EUR/USD bounced towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement that shows signs of rejection. It is important for the EUR/USD bulls to continue making higher highs and higher lows in order for the trend to change to bullish.
Magenta line - RSI supportBlue rectangle - resistance area
The EUR/USD pair has reached the resistance area of 1.1660. Trend remains bearish as long as the price is below 1.1720. A break above 1.1720 will be very bullish sign as we will have higher highs and higher lows on a daily basis. Support at 1.1510 is critical. A break below it will open the way for a move to at least 1.1450. Short-term support is at 1.16-1.1610. Resistance is at 1.1680. As long as we trade below 1.1680-1.1720, I prefer to go short and reverse to long if we break resistance.
Trading Plan for GBP/USD for June 29, 2018
2018-06-29
Technical outlook:
The GBP/USD Daily chart presented here is suggesting that the drop from 1.4370 which began in April 2018, through the 1.3050 levels, is either complete or just about to be complete around the 1.3020 levels. That is the support level (shown by a horizontal line) which bears might want to break before a meaningful counter trend rally takes place. The structure remains very simple for now with wave (1) probably complete and wave (2) rally to begin soon. Please note that the Fibonacci resistance and past support turned resistance zone converges around the 1.3700/50 levels as shown here. Also note that backside of support which turned resistance trend line is passing through the 1.3860/70 levels now. Going forward, the projected zone for the wave (2) termination point should be between 1.3700/50 through the 1.3860/70 levels.
Trading plan:
Aggressive trades should look for buying opportunities with stop below the 1.2950 levels, targeting the 1.3750 and 1.3850 levels.
Fundamental outlook:
Watch out for German Unemployment rate and claims at 0355 AM EST followed by Euro Zone Consumer Price Index at 0500 AM EST.
Good luck!
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