2018-07-23
The correction from 131.99 has opted for the deeper correction near the 50% corrective target of the red wave iii at 130.18 (The low has been seen at 130.11). This is more than enough to complete the correction in the red wave iv and start moving higher in the red wave v towards the 133.02 - 133.60 area.
However, the deep corrective decline does open for an even more bullish long-term count. The rally from 128.44 to 131.99 could be counted as only red wave i/ and the ongoing correction from 131.99 as the red wave ii/. If this is the case, then next impulsive rally higher should have no problem in breaking well above the 133.60 target.
R3: 131.05
R2: 130.75
R1: 130.47
Pivot: 130.27
S1: 130.11
S2: 129.88
S3: 129.76
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 130.80 with our stop placed at 129.80. If you are not long EUR already, then buy a break above 130.75 and use the same stop at 129.80.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for July 23, 2018
2018-07-23
The expected correction from 1.7305 dipped just below our lower boundary at 1.7188 (the low has been seen at 1.7184), this is enough to complete the correction in the red wave ii and set the stage for the next impulsive rally in the red wave iii towards 1.7505 as the next upside target on the way towards 1.8381 and longer term higher to 1.9848.
In the short-term, a break above minor resistance at 1.7268 will confirm that the red wave ii has completed and the red wave iii is developing.
R3: 1.7305
R2: 1.7268
R1: 1.7232
Pivot: 1.7208
S1: 1.7184
S2: 1.7164
S3: 1.7144
Trading recommendation:
We are 50% long EUR from 1.7237 and has re-bought 50% at 1.7215 for an average price of 1.7226 with our stop placed at 1.7110.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for July 23, 2018
2018-07-23
EUR/USD has been quite volatile and corrective recently which leads the pair to trade between a range of 1.1500-1.1750 area for a few days now. Though recently EUR has been able to gain certain momentum against USD, but the trend is still bearish which might lead to continuation of downward pressure in the coming days.
Ahead of the ECB Meetings and Main Refinancing Rate which is expected to be unchanged at 0.00%, today, EURO Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at -1. Several EURO economic reports are going to be published this week which might lead to certain volatility in the market which may result in certain gain on the bullish side this week.
On the USD side, this week Core Durable Goods report is going to be published on Thursday which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.0% and Average GDP report on Friday is expected to increase to 4.0% from the previous value of 2.0. Today, USD Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 5.46M from the previous figure of 5.43M.
As of the current scenario, the USD economic reports are quite optimistic with the forecast in comparison to the EURO reports whereas as of the recent USD strength, USD is expected to continue its dominance over EUR in the coming days of the week leading to more downward momentum in the future whereas EUR is expected to struggle to maintain the bullish momentum it has created recently in the market.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of the 1.1750 area having dynamic resistance from the Kumo Cloud. Moreover, the bearish bias is still intact as the price remain below 1.1750 and is expected to push lower towards the 1.15 support area in the coming days. The MACD is showing lower volume of bulls in the process which also ensures the upcoming bearish momentum as the price remains below 1.1750 with a daily close.
RESISTANCE: 1.1750 - 1.1950
SUPPORT: 1.1500-50
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE AND VOLATILE
Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for July 23, 2018
2018-07-23
AUD/USD has been quite corrective and volatile between the price range of 0.73 to 0.75 area which is still expected to push lower in the coming days as of the trend momentum. AUD has been quite positive with the recent gains against USD which is expected to last for short-term.
Ahead of the high impact economic reports to be published on Thursday this week including CPI report which is expected to show an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.4% and Trimmed Mean CPI report is expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. Today AUD CB Leading Index report is going to be published which previously was at 0.1% and expected to have an optimistic outcome.
On the other hand, this week Core Durable Goods report is going to be published on Thursday which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.0% and Average GDP report on Friday is expected to increase to 4.0% from the previous value of 2.0. Today Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight increase to 5.46M from the previous figure of 5.43M.
As of the current scenario, both currencies in this pair are quite optimistic with the upcoming economic reports which might lead to further volatility in the pair but USD may have an upper hand over AUD having bigger gap in the forecasts with more optimism in the market sentiment.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently bounced off the 0.73 support area from where it might show certain bullish momentum but as the price remains below 0.75 the bearish bias is expected to continue and push the price lower towards 0.7050 in the coming days. On the other hand, a break above 0.75 with a daily close is expected to inject bullish momentum in the pair with target towards 0.77 area in the future.
RESISTANCE: 0.75, 0.77
SUPPORT: 0.73, 0.7050
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: CORRECTIVE AND VOLATILE
Technical analysis of Gold for July 23, 2018
2018-07-23
Gold price has bounced finally from the $1,210 area towards $1,230. Price remains inside the bullish wedge pattern. Gold price remains in a bearish trend, but we have some reversal signs from last week. Bulls need to built on that in order for more upside to come.
Black line - resistance
Red line - support
Upward sloping red line - bullish divergence
Short-term resistance and wedge pattern resistance is at $1,235. A break above it will be a bullish sign. Breaking the downward sloping wedge will be a bullish sign that could bring Gold price back towards $1,300. A break below $1,215 could push Gold price towards $1,200 or even below it.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 23, 2018
2018-07-23
Daily Outlook
In April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range.
Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990.
This was followed by bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018.
On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations.
On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why, a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650.
Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where bearish pressure was expressed.
That's why, the EUR/USD pair remains trapped inside the consolidation range between the depicted key-levels 1.1520 and 1.1750 until breakout occurs in either direction.
Please note that any bullish breakout above 1.1750 will probably liberate a quick bullish movement towards 1.1850 (the upper limit of the depicted supply zone).
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