2018-07-26
USD/CAD has been impulsive with the bearish gains recently which lead the price to reside at the edge of 1.30 support area. The positive economic reports of CAD published recently helped the currency to gain momentum by countering USD in an impulsive manner but the trend has not been established yet.
Recently CAD CPI Report was published with an unchanged value of 0.1% as expected and Core Retail Sales showed a significant increase to 1.4% from the previous value of 0.2% which was expected to be at 0.6%. The positive economic reports had a significant impact on the growth of the CAD gains which is still being observed in the market. This week there was no CAD economic reports or events to impact or support the gains but the sustainability of the bearish pressure does indicate the strength of CAD against USD in the process.
On the USD side, today Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.0%, Durable Goods Orders is expected to increase to 3.0% from the previous value of -0.4%, Unemployment Claims is expected to increase to 215k from the previous figure of 207k, Goods Trade Balance is expected to decrease to -67.0B from the previous figure of -64.8B and Prelim Wholesale Inventories is expected to decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.6%.
As of the current scenario, USD economic reports to be published are quite mixed with the forecast which might lead to certain volatility in the pair leading to certain gain over CAD ahead of the tomorrow's Advance GDP report. Though CAD is still quite ahead with the recent gains as the USD comes up with better economic reports, a certain bullish pressure is expected in this pair.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with the bearish gains which lead the price towards the support area of 1.30 area from where a certain bullish pressure is expected in this pair which may lead the price towards 1.32 resistance area in the coming days. As the price remains above 1.30 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
Trading Plan for EUR/USD for July 26, 2018
2018-07-26
Technical outlook:
There is a slight change in the outlook here that was presented two days ago. The EUR/USD pair might be trading in a consolidating triangle for wave (4) of the larger degree discussed yesterday. Till the time prices stay below 1.1780 levels, the above count shall remain valid. Any push above 1.1780 levels would delay the process of dropping lower from here; rather it would look to drop from 1.1850 levels then. A high probable trade setup from here could be on the south side with potential risk around 1.1780 levels. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.1750 levels, while interim support is at 1.1528 levels respectively. Any break below 1.1650 levels would instill more confidence on the bearish side.
Trading plan:
Exit longs taken yesterday. Remain short from here with stop loss above 1.1780 levels.
Fundamental outlook:
Watch out for ECB rate decision at 07:45 AM EST followed by President Draghi's press conference at 08:30 AM EST.
Good luck!
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for July 26, 2018
2018-07-26
USD/CHF is currently quite volatile and corrective after being rejected off the 1.0050 area with an impulsive bearish momentum and daily close. Ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports from the US, certain volatility is to hit this pair today.
Today, US Core Durable Goods Orders report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.0%, Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase to 3.0% from the previous value of -0.4%, Unemployment Claims are expected to increase to 215k from the previous figure of 207k, Goods Trade Balance is expected to decrease to -67.0B from the previous figure of -64.8B, and Prelim Wholesale Inventories are expected to decrease to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.6%.
On the other hand, this week the economic calendar lacks macroeconomic reports or events in Switzerland to support CHF gains. Next week, KOF Economic Barometer, Retail Sales, and SECO Consumer Climate report are going to be published which are expected to inject certain volatility and may play an important part for the upcoming CHF gains over USD in the process.
At present, ahead of the upcoming high impact economic reports, USD has been trading amid bearish pressure. However, the long-term trend is still bullish and expected to push the price higher in the medium term.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is residing below 1.0050 area and below the dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates that the bears are still in control and expected to push the price lower towards 0.98 support area before pushing higher with a target towards 1.0050 in the future. As the price remains above 0.98 area with a daily close, despite any impulsive bearish momentum the bullish bias is expected to continue further.
SUPPORT: 0.9800
RESISTANCE: 1.0050
BIAS: LONG-TERM BULLISH but SHORT-TERM BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 26, 2018
2018-07-26
The USD/CHF pair is still trading above the pivot point of the price 0.9857 since three days. The USD/CHF pair faced resistance at the level of 0.9943. The strong resistance has been already formed at the level of 0.9943 and the pair is likely to try to approach it in order to test it again. However, if the pair fails to pass through the level of 0.9943, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the new strong resistance level of 0.9943 (the level of 0.9943 coincides with a ratio of 50% Fibonacci and 61.8%). Moreover, the RSI starts signaling a downward trend, as the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100) and (50). Thus, the market is indicating a bearish opportunity below 0.9943, so it would be good to sell at 0.9940 with the first target of 0.9795. It will also call for a downtrend in order to continue towards 0.9733. The daily strong support is seen at 0.9733. On the other hand, the stop loss order should always be taken into account, for that it will be reasonable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.0050.
GBP/USD analysis for July 25, 2018
2018-07-26
Recently, the GBP/USD has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 1.3212. Anyway, according to the H4 time – frame, I found the successful rejection of the upper band (Keltner channel), which is a sign that buying looks risky. I also found a hidden bearish divergence on the LBR oscillator, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. The downward target is set at the price of 1.3075.
Resistance levels:
R1: 1.1763
R2: 1.1788
R3: 1.1837
Support levels:
S1: 1.1689
S2: 1.1640
S3: 1.1615
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
Technical analysis of NZD/USD for July 26, 2018
2018-07-26
Overview:
The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the levels of 0.6807/0.6840. The pair has dropped from the level of 0.6807 to trade around the 0.6824 level. This level of 0.6807 coincides with the minor resistance today. Today, the first resistance levels are seen at 0.6807/0.8640 followed by 0.6880, while daily support 1 is found at 0.6742. Also, the level of 0.6775 represents a key price today for that it is acting as major resistance/support this week. Amid the previous events, the pair is still in a downtrend, because the NZD/USD pair is trading in a bearish trend from the new resistance line of 0.6807 towards the first support level at 0.6742 in order to test it. If the pair succeeds to pass through the level of 0.6742, the market will indicate a bearish opportunity below the level of 0.6742. Then, resell again at the price of 0.6742 with the targets of 0.6716 and 0.6697. On the other hand, if a breakout happens at the resistance level of 0.6840, then this scenario may be invalidated.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for July 26, 2018
2018-07-26
Daily OutlookIn April 2018, the EUR/USD pair outlook turned to become bearish when the pair pursued trading below the broken uptrend as well as the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range. Shortly after, the price zone (1.1850-1.1750) offered temporary bullish rejection towards 1.1990. The EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets. Instead, a descending high was established around 1.1990. This was followed by a bearish breakdown below the price zone of 1.1850-1.1750. This price zone has been standing as a significant Supply zone since June 2018. On the other hand, the price zone of 1.1520-1.1420 was considered a prominent demand zone where a valid bullish BUY entry was offered during previous weeks' consolidations. On July 10, signs of bearish rejection were manifested around 1.1750. That's why a bearish movement was expected to occur towards 1.1650. Lack of enough bearish momentum allowed another bullish pullback to occur again towards 1.1750 (the lower limit of the depicted supply zone) where price action should be watched cautiously. That's why the EUR/USD pair remains trapped below the price level of 1.1750 until a bullish breakout occurs. Conservative traders should wait for a bullish breakout above 1.1750 as this will liberate a quick bullish movement towards 1.1850 (the upper limit of the depicted supply zone).
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