2018-07-04
The Gold price made a new low yesterday at $1,237 but the Daily candle closed much higher. Is the low in for Gold? Is the decline over? One thing is for sure, yesterday's reversal came at a very critical long-term support with several indicators pointing out that prices are oversold and a big bounce should follow like the previous times.
Green line - long-term supportRed line - long-term resistance
Magenta lines - bearish channel
The Gold price is preparing a bullish reversal weekly candle. Bouncing off the long-term trend line support is a bullish signal, but bulls will need more follow through. The price remains inside the bearish channel and bulls will need to break above $1,270 for this bounce to move higher towards $1,300. Cloud resistance by the kijun-sen is at $1,300. Support remains at $1,235-37. Short-term resistance is at $1,260 and support at $1,248. I remain bullish Gold.
Technical analysis on EUR/USD for July 4, 2018
2018-07-04
The EUR/USD pair has been moving mainly sideways for the last few sessions between 1.17 and 1.16. Medium-term trend remains bearish. As we said in the previous analysis, trend is bearish as long as we trade below 1.1720 and we should look to sell rallies.
Red line -medium-term resistance
Blue line - support
Magenta line - RSI support and divergence
The EUR/USD pair is challenging the medium-term resistance trend line that comes down from 1.24. A multiple bottom formation has been formed above 1.15 and a break below it will open the way for a move towards 1.14 as many stops will be placed there. On the other hand, a break above 1.1720 will open the way for a move higher towards 1.20-1.21. Until Friday, I do not expect much to change. The NFP numbers which are due on Friday will drive the market and provide some more volatility.
EUR/USD analysis for July 04, 2018
2018-07-04
Recently, EUR/USD has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 1.1639. According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of the bearish flag pattern in the background, which is a sign that sellers are in control. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportunities. I have placed Fibonacci expansion to find potential targets. I got Fibonacci expansion 100% at the price of 1.1585 and Fibonacci expansion 161.8% at the price of 1.1525.
Resistance levels: R1: 1.1381R2: 1.1703 R3: 1.1733
Support levels: S1: 1.1630S2: 1.1600S3: 1.1577 Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential selling opportunities.
GBP/USD analysis for July 04, 2018
2018-07-04
Recently, USD/CHF has been trading upwards. The price tested the level of 0.9930. According to the H1 time frame, I found a breakout of the supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. My advice is to watch for potnetial buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 0.9977.
Resistance levels: R1: 0.9943R2: 0.9965 R3: 0.9980
Support levels: S1: 0.9006S2: 0.9890S3: 0.9870
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CHF for July 4, 2018
2018-07-04
USD/CHF has been quite volatile and corrective below 0.9980 to 1.0035 area from where it is still expected to slip lower towards 0.9850 and later towards 0.97 area. USD has been the dominating currency in the pair amid the recent rate hike by the US Fed. However, as trade jitters are increasing, USD is expected to lose some momentum in the process.
This week, Switzerland Retail Sales report was published with a significant decrease to -0.1% from the previous value of 2.9% which was expected to be at 2.6% and Manufacturing PMI report was published with a slight better-than-expected figure of 61.2, decreasing from 62.4 which was expected to be at 61.1. Though today Switzerland does not post macroeconomic reports, tomorrow CPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.4%.
On the other hand, despite lingering trade jitters, USD has been quite solid in light of upbeat economic reports, which helped the currency to sustain the bullish momentum in the pair. Ahead of US nonfarm payrolls which are due on Friday, today the economic calendar does not contain macroeconomic reports from the US amid Independence Day. But tomorrow, just the day before NFP, ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 190k from the previous figure of 178k and Unemployment Claims report is expected to increase to 231k from the previous figure of 227k.
As for the current scenario, CHF has been quite mixed amid the recent economic reports whereas USD has been consistently firm which may lead to further bullish momentum in the pair. However, pending macroeconomic reports from the US have sour outlook, so USD may look quite weak ahead of the news. Besides, worse-than-expected result may lead to weakness of USD against CHF.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above the dynamic level of 20 EMA with certain bullish momentum. As the price remains below 0.9980 to 1.0035 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue to push the price lower with a target towards 0.9850 and later towards 0.97 area. Though the Bearish Regular Divergence cannot be spotted clearly at the moment, the current corrective phase is expected to push the price lower in the coming days.
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