In this post I applied the following tools: fundamental analysis, all-round market view, market balance level, volume profile, graphic analysis, trendline analysis, Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks.
Another week is over, and so, it is time to see the Bitcoin performance and revise the BTCUSD analysis.
First of all, let’s compare the last Bitcoin forecast with BTCUSD current situation
(BTCUSD forecast, dated 02.10.2018)
(current price chart of bitcoin to dollar as of 08.10.2018)
As it is clear from Bitcoin price charts above, in general, BTCUSD is trading according to the most likely scenario, suggested a week ago. The price is consolidating inside the global triangle. It is not going to broaden somehow. The expected Bitcoin correction towards the lower triangle leg was very short. Having rebounded the ticker went on along the higher leg; which indicates strong bullish sentiment.
In general everything seems to be going on according to the plan, doesn’t it? To make sure, I suggest Bitcoin fundamental analysis and the all-round technical analysis.
BTCUSD fundamental analysis
The recent week has been rather calm in terms of news background. There has been no news, resulting in the market response or a strong momentum. Obviously, this calm can’t last for a long time; but it is clear that the longer is the pause, the stronger will the market respond to the future events.
It is clear from the Fear and Greed Index on alternative.me.
In the previous Bitcoin price forecast, I suggested that the indicator had reached the channel’s top border was likely to rebound from it. Finally, that is what we see now. The Fear index is at 26 points, though last week it was at 33, that is, it has been 21% down.
It is remarkable that, despite the index decline, Bitcoin price is not going down, It has just stuck at about 6500 – 6600.
It is clear from the chart that the ticker has hardly moved, compared to October 1. This difference is called divergence, and in this case, it is bearish. The market is obviously held deliberately is not allowed to get corrected even within the formation. Any market manipulation results in fading volume. It is perfectly clear in the chart above. Record low trade volumes have been in the market for the few past days; I marked it with the red circle.
Another crypto market manipulation, I have noted during the recent week, is inflating the trade volumes at the current levels.
Huge buy or sell orders for BTCUSD were being put in the market at the intervals of just a few minutes. It is done, first of all, to keep this zone and turn it into the strong support zone.
Indicators, responsive to trade volumes, will surely respond this volume inflating and send a bullish signal.
It is clear from the chart above, the point of control, due to the boosted volume, has shifted from 6500 up to almost 6600, creating a strong pressure for bears.
Obviously, all of this is a clear try to push the market up. Big traders need Bitcoin growth, breaking the triangle from below, preferably with a strong momentum.
I think you understand why they are doing so...of course, to safely dump bitcoins in big volumes.
In general, this assumption fits in the previous bitcoin trading scenario quite well, and so, I expect the triangle breakout from above. Now, let’s see what Bitcoin technical analysis suggests.
BTCUSD technical analysis
Hardly anything has changed in the BTCUSD monthly timeframe during the recent week. Only, Keltner channel’s center line has shifted a little higher and is now at 6148 USD. As for the rest signals, there is still the sideways trend; BTCUSD ticker is above the point of control in the volume profile, between 7429 USD and 6000 USD.
RSI stochastic has been at the bottom of the oversold zone for almost a half-year, suggesting that there is no space to fall lower. MACD lines are going towards zero level, suggesting that there are bears.
In the BTC USD weekly chart above, you see that the last week closed in the form of a very small doji pattern, within the limits of the previous week; it indicates the market balance. It is can’t be for a long time, being the first sign of the strong momentum in future. It is clear that bitcoin ticker has closely approached the downward trendline.
However, MACD is in the green zone, and RSI stochastic is neutral and is not yet indicating any certain direction.
In the daily chart of BTC USD price, the market situation looks far less certain. In the Bitcoin price chart, the ticker is in the neutral state, none of the moving averages is sending a directed signal. MACD is in a similar state and is not indicating the bitcoin price movement, either up or down. The only exception here is RSI stochastic; it is indicating a downtrend with a rounding towards the center of the indicator chart.
You see Heikin-Ashi candlesticks in the BTCUSD 4H chart above. The last two bars are constructing as type one, according to the methodology, I described in the new training post.
This bar-type indicates trading flat and a soon start of a directed trend. As the ticker is approaching the ascending trendline, it is likely to go down.
Updated BTCUSD price forecast and BTCUSD trading scenario
Summing up all the above, the general forecast remains the same. BTCUSD will break out the triangle from above, though it is not going to be as easy, as most expect, featuring numerous punctures and false breakouts. We can now only dream about bitcoin sharp surge; it is most likely that when bitcoin to dollar price gets close to 7400, manipulators will take the profits and dump bitcoin amid the common positive. There surely will be numerous positive forecasts for Bitcoin; like the uptrend is recovering and everything is going to be fine...it will be the chance for manipulators to cash out their bitcoin safely and organize another dump, but this is the story of my next BTC price prediction. In the meanwhile, smile and welcome doomed bulls )))))))
That is my BTCUSD trading scenario for the next two weeks. Read my forecasts for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the trader blog. Go on following the Bitcoin price and staying informed on the cryptocurrency market. I wish my Bitcoin price predictions are useful for you!
I wish you good luck and good profits!
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