2018-10-24
EUR/JPY dipped to 128.21 but stayed above the important support level at 127.86 before turning higher again. The very deep correction in blue wave (2) is of concern, but as long as support at 127.86 is untouched, we will remain long-term bullish and look for confirmation that blue wave (2) has completed and blue wave (3) towards 136.75 is developing. Only an unexpected break below 127.86 will force us to revive our bullish stand.
A break above resistance at 130.16 will confirm that blue wave (2) has completed and blue wave (3) is developing.
R3: 130.16
R2: 129.66
R1: 129.20
Pivot: 129.05
S1: 128.86
S2: 128.56
S3: 128.21
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 129.74 with our stop placed at 128.20. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy near 129.05 and use the same stop at 128.20.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 24, 2018
2018-10-24
Minor resistance near 1.7515 has proofed tougher than first expected, but after a minor corrective dip to 1.7450, we expect renewed upside pressure and a clear break above minor resistance at 1.7515 for a continuation higher towards 1.7700 and longer-term higher towards 1.8345 as red wave iii/ starts to accelerate.
Support is now seen at 1.7450 and then near 1.7392.
R3: 1.7625
R2: 1.7598
R1: 1.7557
Pivot: 1.7515
S1: 1.7495
S2: 1.7475
S3: 1.7450
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.7495 with our stop placed at 1.7345. If you are not long EUR yet, then wait for a break above 1.7515 and use the same stop at 1.7345.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for October 24, 2018
2018-10-24
EUR/JPY has been quite volatile after breaking below 129.50 with a daily close which is currently heading higher for a retesting the area again. JPY has been the dominant currency in the pair but recently, due to certain positive EURO economic outcomes, the market sentiment bias is getting indecisive which might lead to a certain change in the process.
Recently JPY All Industry Activity report was published with an increase to 0.5% from the previous value of -0.2% which was expected to be at 0.4% and BOJ Core CPI remained unchanged at 0.5%. Recently Bank of Japan warned Japan's Banks risk taking which hits 3 decades high in the April to September session which is expected to lead to ultra-easy monetary may overheat certain industries in the country. Though the banks are still quite stable but having higher risks which might lead to certain fluctuations may seriously affect the overall financial sector of the country. Today, Flash Manufacturing PMI report was published with an increase to 53.1 from the previous figure of 52.5 which was expected to be at 52.6. Ahead of the Tokyo Core CPI report to be published on Friday, further volatility may be observed as the expectation for the value is to remain unchanged at 1.0%.
On the other hand, the EURO is currently struggling with Italian Budget issue. The Budget Deficit of Italy was recently rejected by Europe Union as they claimed that it broke EU rules on Public Spending and asked Rome to submit another one by three weeks or face disciplinary actions. Today EURO French Flash Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to slightly decrease to 52.4 from the previous figure of 52.5, French Flash Services PMI is expected to slightly decrease to 54.7 from the previous figure of 54.8, German Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 53.4 from the previous figure of 53.7 and German Flash Services PMI is also expected to decrease to 55.5 from the previous figure of 55.9. Additionally, EURO Flash Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 53.0 from the previous figure of 53.2 and EURO Flash Services PMI is expected to decrease to 54.5 from the previous figure of 54.7.
As of the current scenario, the EURO is quite dovish with the upcoming economic reports whereas JPY has been quite hawkish. Though certain tension is being emerged in Eurozone for the Italy budget deficit issue but having a better result may lead the market to favor the EURO gains in the coming days or else JPY may lead the price much lower in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impressive with the recent bullish gains recently which resulted to impulsive bearish rejection in the process. Though the price is residing below 129.50 area with a daily close, there are certain chances of bullish breakout above 129.50 and pushing the price higher towards 131.00 area. On the contrary, if the price rejects off the 129.50 again with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to continue to lead the price towards 125.50 area in the future.
SUPPORT: 125.50
RESISTANCE: 129.50, 131.00
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 24, 2018
2018-10-24
EUR/USD is trading above the critical support of 1.1430-1.1450. Price has been mainly moving sideways between 1.16 and 1.1430 for the last few days. For bulls it is important to hold above recent lows and break above 1.1520.
Red dots - maximum strength short-term resistance
Green dots - maximum strength short-term support
EUR/USD has made a triple bottom in the 1.1430-1.1450 area. This signifies the importance of this level. Breaking below this level will open the way for a move towards 1.12-1.13. Breaking above yesterday's highs will open the way for a test of 1.1520 which is the next short-term resistance. However for bulls to hope to see above 1.16 we need a break above 1.1560. Bouncing strongly off this area will increase the chances for a corrective rally towards 1.1660.
Longer-term I'm bearish as long as price is below 1.1820.
Technical analysis of Gold for October 24, 2018
2018-10-24
Gold price broke above the triangle pattern as we expected and reached $1,240. Price is now pulling back down towards the break out area. Holding above it is a bullish sign. Breaking below $1,220 would confirm the end of the upward move and the start of a new down trend.
Green lines - triangle pattern (broken upwards)
Black rectangle - major support
Gold price is in a bullish short-term trend. Price broke above the triangle pattern and is now trading above the break out level. Gold price could continue its move higher towards $1,250-60 as long as it does not fall below $1,220. Bulls should raise their stops to protect gains.
Black rectangle - major support
Gold price is in a bullish short-term trend. Price broke above the triangle pattern and is now trading above the break out level. Gold price could continue its move higher towards $1,250-60 as long as it does not fall below $1,220. Bulls should raise their stops to protect gains.
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