2018-10-30
The break above minor resistance at 127.75 was the first good indication, that wave A had completed and wave B higher to at least 130.20 is developing. The final confirmation that wave A has completed and wave B is well underway will be seen upon a break above resistance at 128.44.
We could see resistance at 128.44 only broken slightly for a corrective dip close to 127.69 and maybe even closer to 127.47 before the next rally higher towards 130.20.
R3: 129.24
R2: 128.76
R1: 128.44
Pivot: 128.15
S1: 127.69
S2: 127.47
S3: 127.22
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 127.75 with our stop placed at 126.50. If you are not long EUR yet, then buy close to 127.69 and use the same stop 126.50
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for October 29, 2018
2018-10-30
EUR/NZD broke below support at 1.7393 telling us that the corrective decline from 1.7921 is still evolving and should move closer to support in the 1.7290 - 1.7300 area before completing red wave ii/.
Resistance is now seen near 1.7400 and then at 1.7457. The later should be able to cap the upside for the expected dip closer to 1.7300.
R3: 1.7515
R2: 1.7483
R1: 1.7457
Pivot: 1.7406
S1: 1.7357
S2: 1.7325
S3: 1.7300
Trading recommendation:
Ous stop at 1.7385 was hit. We will stay on the sideline for now.
Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for October 30, 2018
2018-10-30
GBP/USD has been impulsive with the recent bearish momentum which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure in the coming days. Despite the recent mixed economic reports having better results in some medium impact economic reports, GBP is struggling to gain momentum over USD which does indicate the weakness of the currency in the process.
This week GBP Official Bank Rate report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 0.75% whereas the Monetary Policy Summary is also expected to be quite neutral in the process. Recently Britain has raised its official forecast for the economic growth in 2019 as GDP may grow to 1.6% which was forecasted to be at 1.3%, while the outlook for subsequent years was unchanged. Recently GBP Net Lending to Individuals report showed an increase to 4.7B from the previous figure of 4.3B which was expected to be at 4.1B, M4 Money Supply decreased to -0.3% from the previous positive value of 0.1% which was expected to increase to 0.3% and Mortgage Approvals decrease to 65k as expected from the previous figure of 66k. Today CBI Realized Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 27 from the previous figure of 23.
On the USD side, having mixed economic reports recently, the currency failed to raise impulsively over GBP recently. Ahead of the upcoming NFP reports which are also expected to be quite mixed with the outcomes, USD gains may take a bit longer to generate against GBP this week. Today S&P/CS Composite -20 HPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 6.0% from the previous value of 5.9% and CB Consumer Confidence report is expected to decrease to 136.3 from the previous figure of 138.4.
As of the current scenario, this week is going to be quite volatile and corrective having high impact economic reports on the both currencies of the pair whereas GBP having certain hawkish expectations for the coming months may lead to certain gains whereas if USD performs better in NFP and upcoming economic reports throughout the week looking over the expectations certain gains on the USD side may also be observed. To sum up, currently, USD is expected to gain momentum over GBP for a certain period before GBP tries to counter with positive reports.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has recently retested 1.2850 area with a daily close after the break below the area. As per current price action, the price is expected to push lower towards 1.2500-50 support area in the coming days as the price remains below 1.2950 with a daily close.
SUPPORT: 1.2500-50
RESISTANCE: 1.2850, 1.2950
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE and IMPULSIVE
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 30, 2018
2018-10-30
EUR/USD got rejected yesterday at the medium-strength resistance area of 1.1420 and fell below short-term support of 1.1385. Prices remain below 1.14 in a bearish trend and as long as we are trading below yesterday highs, I remain short-term bearish as well expecting a break below 1.13.
Black dots - medium strength resistance
Red dots - maximum strength resistance.
Price continues to be in a bearish trend. Nothing has changed. Only a break above short-term resistance of 1.1420 could provide a bigger bounce maybe towards 1.1460 or even 1.15. Support is at 1.1335. Despite price making new lows last week, the RSI did not and we have our first divergence in the 4-hour chart. We also have a bullish divergence in the daily chart, but I believe we will need to see one more and a new lower low in price below 1.13 to complete the decline from 1.25. A key reversal point is at 1.1620 and as long as we trade below it, we will continue to sell rallies.
Technical analysis of Gold for October 30, 2018
2018-10-30
Gold price continues to move sideways below the $1,240 resistance. Price remains inside a bullish channel and a break above $1,233 would be the bullish signal we expect for a move towards $1,260-70.
Parallel lines - bullish channel
Blue line - short-term support trend line
Gold price so far respects support levels. Any attempt to break above $1,238 has failed. So far Gold price has tried it three times. There will not be a fourth. Gold price will either move lower from current levels or it will break upwards towards $1,260. Next time we see a break above $1,238 it will be for real. Gold would then move towards $1,260. Support is at $1,220-23. We do not want to see this level broken if we are long. I believe the most probable scenario is to see Gold eventually break to the upside.
Red dots - maximum strength resistance.
Price continues to be in a bearish trend. Nothing has changed. Only a break above short-term resistance of 1.1420 could provide a bigger bounce maybe towards 1.1460 or even 1.15. Support is at 1.1335. Despite price making new lows last week, the RSI did not and we have our first divergence in the 4-hour chart. We also have a bullish divergence in the daily chart, but I believe we will need to see one more and a new lower low in price below 1.13 to complete the decline from 1.25. A key reversal point is at 1.1620 and as long as we trade below it, we will continue to sell rallies.
Technical analysis of Gold for October 30, 2018
2018-10-30
Gold price continues to move sideways below the $1,240 resistance. Price remains inside a bullish channel and a break above $1,233 would be the bullish signal we expect for a move towards $1,260-70.
Parallel lines - bullish channel
Blue line - short-term support trend line
Gold price so far respects support levels. Any attempt to break above $1,238 has failed. So far Gold price has tried it three times. There will not be a fourth. Gold price will either move lower from current levels or it will break upwards towards $1,260. Next time we see a break above $1,238 it will be for real. Gold would then move towards $1,260. Support is at $1,220-23. We do not want to see this level broken if we are long. I believe the most probable scenario is to see Gold eventually break to the upside.
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