2018-10-19
USD/CHF has been quite impulsive with the bullish momentum recently which lead the price to reside at the edge of the 0.9980 area currently. Despite the recent struggles faced by USD due to worse economic results, CHF has been dominated quite well along the way.
USD has been struggling with the economic results this week as well with reports like Retail Sales and Building Permits. Today US Existing Home Sales report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 5.29M from the previous figure of 5.34M, and FOMC Member Bostic is going to speak about the upcoming interest rates decisions and future monetary policies which are expected to be hawkish in nature as of recent FOMC Meeting there are possibilities of another rate hike before the year ends.
On the CHF side, this week PPI report was published with a decrease to -0.2% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to increase to 0.1%, and Trade Balance report showed an increase to 2.43B from the previous figure of 2.08B which failed to meet the expected figure of 2.45B. The dovish outcome of the report did weaken the CHF further in the process leading to more USD gains in the process.
As of the current scenario, ahead of the high impact economic event of FOMC Member's speech on the interest rate decision, if the outcome remains hawkish and positive then further bullish pressure against CHF could be observed in the coming days or else, any negative comment from the speech may lead to correction and perhaps counter as well.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite bullish after bouncing off the 0.9850 support area with a retrace. The price is heading towards the resistance area of 0.9980-1.0050 from where previously impulsive bearish momentum was observed. Moreover, forming Bearish Divergence along the way also suggests the price has a greater probability to reject the bulls of the resistance area with a target to move lower in the coming days. As the price remains below the 1.0050 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 0.9700, 0.9850
RESISTANCE: 0.9980, 1.0050
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Fundamental Analysis of GBP/JPY for October 19, 2018
2018-10-19
GBP/JPY has recently broken below the corrective range support area of 147.00 from where the price is expected to push lower in the coming days. As of the recent worse economic reports of GBP, in the meantime, JPY gained good momentum in the process which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure in the pair for the coming days.
This week GBP CPI report was published with a decrease to 2.4% from the previous value of 2.7% which was expected to be at 2.6%, and Retail Sales also decreased significantly to -0.8% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at -0.4%. As of the BREXIT impact and certain indecision throughout the economy, GBP is currently struggling to gain in the process. Today Bank of England's Governor Carney is going to speak about short-term interest rates and upcoming decisions for the economy which is expected to have a neutral impact on the upcoming gains of the currency in the market.
On the other hand, JPY has been quite positive with the economic report this week including the Trade Balance report not meeting the worse expected figure of -0.34T from the previous figure of -0.19T but actually resulting to -0.24T, and Bank of Japan's Governor's speech having hawkish indication for the upcoming developments in the economy and how well their plan worked to stabilize the trade and commerce in the economy. Today the JPY National Core CPI report was published with an increase to 1.0% as expected from the previous value of 0.9%, and Bank of Japan's Governor spoke about the protectionism and upcoming increase in volatility despite the expansion of the financial market. The speech was quite hawkish but with a certain warning about the upcoming volatility which might lead to uncertainty in the process.
As of the current scenario, JPY is fundamentally stronger than GBP which might lead to certain gains on the JPY side for the coming days, but certain caution should be also maintained as the price may be volatile and corrective along the way to move downward in the process. Until GBP comes up with a better economic outcome, JPY gains are expected to expand further in the future.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price breached below the 147.00 area with a strong bearish daily close recently which is expected to lead to further bearish pressure in the pair. Though certain bullish pressure can be observed currently in the pair as the price remains below the 148.00 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue and push the price lower towards 145.50 and later towards 142.50 support area in the coming days.
SUPPORT: 142.50, 145.50
RESISTANCE: 147.00, 148.00
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis of USD/CAD for October 18, 2018
2018-10-19
Overview:
The USD/CAD pair has broken resistance at the level of 1.3000, which acts as support now. So, the pair has already formed minor support at 1.3000. The strong support is seen at the level of 1.2945 because it represents the weekly support. In the H1 time frame, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.3000. Buy above the minor support of 1.3000 with a target at 1.3089 (this price is coinciding with the ratio of 100% Fibonacci). On the other hand, if the pair closes below the minor support (1.3000), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2945.
Comment:
Also, the double bottom is seen at the level of 1.2865.
If the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and CAD is in a downtrend.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 18, 2018
2018-10-19
The USD/CAD pair has broken resistance at the level of 1.3000, which acts as support now. So, the pair has already formed minor support at 1.3000. The strong support is seen at the level of 1.2945 because it represents the weekly support. In the H1 time frame, the RSI and the moving average (100) are still pointing to the upside. Therefore, the market indicates a bullish opportunity at the level of 1.3000. Buy above the minor support of 1.3000 with a target at 1.3089 (this price is coinciding with the ratio of 100% Fibonacci). On the other hand, if the pair closes below the minor support (1.3000), the price will fall into the bearish market in order to go further towards the strong support at 1.2945.
Comment:
Also, the double bottom is seen at the level of 1.2865.
If the trend is buoyant, then the currency pair strength will be defined as following: USD is in an uptrend and CAD is in a downtrend.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 18, 2018
2018-10-19
Overview:
The Swissy is still calling for strong bullish outlook today. The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9875. The pair rose from the level of 0.9875 to a top around 0.9865. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9865 followed by 0.9922, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9743 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9875 and 0.9999; so we expect a range of 124 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.9865, we should see the pair climbing towards the second resistance (0.9922) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9865 with the first target at 0.9922 in order to test the daily resistance 2 and further to 0.9963. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.9963 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9875, a further decline to 0.9740 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
EUR/USD analysis for October 19, 2018
2018-10-19
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1467. According to the M30 time – frame, I have found that fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.1448, which is sign that sellers got trapped. I also found the bullish breakout of 3H balance, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward take profit levels are set at the price of 1.1500 and (R1) and at the price of 1.1525 (yesterday's high).
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 19, 2018
2018-10-19
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.
On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.
Instead, evident bearish momentum was being demonstrated on the daily chart. On October 10, recent bearish decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420.
However, last week, temporary bullish recovery around 1.1430 pushed the EUR/USD pair again above 1.1520 until yesterday when bearish breakdown of 1.1520 occurred again.
As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should achieve bearish breakdown below the price level of 1.1400.
The nearest demand level would be located around 1.1275.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 19, 2018
2018-10-19
On September 13, the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090 failed to offer enough bearish pressure on the pair. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.
On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.
Recently, the price level of 1.2900-1.2940 (the backside of the broken uptrend) demonstrated significant bullish recovery which led to the recent bullish breakout of the depicted H4 channel.
Evident Bullish momentum was demonstrated above 1.3010 and recently above 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) which led to the recent bullish movement towards 1.3200.
Bearish rejection was demonstrated around 1.3200. This hinders the bullish breakout scenario allowing further bearish decline towards 1.3090 (61.8% Fibo level) and probably 1.3010 (50% Fibonacci level) if enough bearish pressure is applied.
As for the bullish breakout scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.3200 (SELL-ZONE) is needed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum initially towards 1.3280.
On the other hand, a bearish breakdown below the price level of 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) enhances further bearish decline towards 1.3010 and 1.2940.
GBP/JPY analysis for October 19, 2018
2018-10-19
Recently, the GBP/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 145.79. According to the H1 time – frame, I found that GBP/JPY in the bullish correction phase (bearish flag in creation), which is a sign that you should wait for confirmation before you sell. Watch for a potential breakout of the bearish flag pattern to confirm further downward continuation. Take profit level is set at the price of 145.83.
The Swissy is still calling for strong bullish outlook today. The USD/CHF pair continues to trade upwards from the level of 0.9875. The pair rose from the level of 0.9875 to a top around 0.9865. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 0.9865 followed by 0.9922, while daily support 1 is seen at 0.9743 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the USD/CHF pair is still moving between the levels of 0.9875 and 0.9999; so we expect a range of 124 pips. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 0.9865, we should see the pair climbing towards the second resistance (0.9922) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 0.9865 with the first target at 0.9922 in order to test the daily resistance 2 and further to 0.9963. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.9963 is a good place to take profit because it will form a new double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the USD/CHF pair breaks through the support level of 0.9875, a further decline to 0.9740 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
EUR/USD analysis for October 19, 2018
2018-10-19
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1467. According to the M30 time – frame, I have found that fake breakout of yesterday's low at the price of 1.1448, which is sign that sellers got trapped. I also found the bullish breakout of 3H balance, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward take profit levels are set at the price of 1.1500 and (R1) and at the price of 1.1525 (yesterday's high).
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for October 19, 2018
2018-10-19
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.
On September 10, the price level of 1.1500 offered temporary bullish recovery. Quick bullish movement was demonstrated towards the upper limit of the price range (1.1750). However, the EUR/USD bulls failed to pursue towards higher bullish targets.
Instead, evident bearish momentum was being demonstrated on the daily chart. On October 10, recent bearish decline below 1.1520 found its way towards the price level of 1.1420.
However, last week, temporary bullish recovery around 1.1430 pushed the EUR/USD pair again above 1.1520 until yesterday when bearish breakdown of 1.1520 occurred again.
As for the bearish side of the market to remain dominant, the EUR/USD pair should achieve bearish breakdown below the price level of 1.1400.
The nearest demand level would be located around 1.1275.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for October 19, 2018
2018-10-19
On September 13, the depicted daily downtrend line which came to meet the pair around 1.3025-1.3090 failed to offer enough bearish pressure on the pair. Since then, the GBP/USD pair has been demonstrating a successful bullish breakout so far.
On September 21, the GBP/USD failed to demonstrate sufficient bullish momentum above 1.3296. The short-term outlook turned to become bearish within the depicted H4 bearish channel to test the backside of the broken uptrend.
Recently, the price level of 1.2900-1.2940 (the backside of the broken uptrend) demonstrated significant bullish recovery which led to the recent bullish breakout of the depicted H4 channel.
Evident Bullish momentum was demonstrated above 1.3010 and recently above 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) which led to the recent bullish movement towards 1.3200.
Bearish rejection was demonstrated around 1.3200. This hinders the bullish breakout scenario allowing further bearish decline towards 1.3090 (61.8% Fibo level) and probably 1.3010 (50% Fibonacci level) if enough bearish pressure is applied.
As for the bullish breakout scenario to remain valid, bullish persistence above 1.3200 (SELL-ZONE) is needed to maintain sufficient bullish momentum initially towards 1.3280.
On the other hand, a bearish breakdown below the price level of 1.3100 (61.8% Fibo level) enhances further bearish decline towards 1.3010 and 1.2940.
GBP/JPY analysis for October 19, 2018
2018-10-19
Recently, the GBP/JPY pair has been trading downwards. The price tested the level of 145.79. According to the H1 time – frame, I found that GBP/JPY in the bullish correction phase (bearish flag in creation), which is a sign that you should wait for confirmation before you sell. Watch for a potential breakout of the bearish flag pattern to confirm further downward continuation. Take profit level is set at the price of 145.83.
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