2018-10-01
Overview:
The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 0.6635 and 0.6616. the pair dropped from the level of 0.6635 to 0.6597, which coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci on the H1 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.6747 and 0.7650. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.6635 and 0.6663; because the price is in a bearish channel now.
Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.6635 and 0.6537. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 0.6635. Furthermore, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.6537, the market will decline further to 0.6555 (daily support 2). On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 0.6635, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 0.6703; hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong resistance at 0.6695 to test it again. The level of 0.6695 will form a double top.
Technical analysis of AUD/USD for October 01, 2018
2018-10-01
The NZD/USD pair continues to move downwards from the areas of 0.6635 and 0.6616. the pair dropped from the level of 0.6635 to 0.6597, which coincides with a ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci on the H1 chart. Today, resistance is seen at the levels of 0.6747 and 0.7650. So, we expect the price to set below the strong resistance at the levels of 0.6635 and 0.6663; because the price is in a bearish channel now.
Amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.6635 and 0.6537. In overall, we still prefer the bearish scenario as long as the price is below the level of 0.6635. Furthermore, if the NZD/USD pair is able to break out the bottom at 0.6537, the market will decline further to 0.6555 (daily support 2). On the other hand, if the price closes above the strong resistance of 0.6635, the best location for a stop loss order is seen above 0.6703; hence, the price will fall into a bearish trend in order to go further towards the strong resistance at 0.6695 to test it again. The level of 0.6695 will form a double top.
Technical analysis of AUD/USD for October 01, 2018
2018-10-01
Overview:
The AUD/USD pair will be probably continue to climp from the level of 0.7233 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7233 which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the AUD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7260. So, buy above the level of 0.7260 with the first target at 0.7309 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7346. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.7379 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7233, a further decline to 0.7153 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for October 1, 2018
2018-10-01
EUR/USD has been quite impulsive inside the bearish bias recently which made the price hold at the edge of the support area from 1.1600 to 50. After the rate hike by the US Fed from 2.00% to 2.25% last week, USD gained good momentum over EUR immediately. Nevertheless, USD is struggling for gains amid downbeat economic reports from the US. So, USD gains are expected to quite short-lived in the coming days.
This week the economic calendar contains several reports from the eurozone. Thus, EUR could find good suport against USD. Today German Retail Sales report was published with an increase to -0.1% from the previous value of -1.1% but it undershot the expectation of 0.4%, Spanish Manufacturing PMI decreased to 51.4 from the previous figure of 53.0 which was expected to be at 52.7, EURO Final Manufacturing PMI was also published with decrease to 53.2 which was expected to be unchanged at 53.3 but Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate had positive impact having decreased to 9.7% from the previous value of 10.2% which was expected to increase to 10.5%.
On the other hand, ahead of the NFP reports this week, USD is expected to be quite volatile with the upcoming gains. As US nonfarm payrolls are expected to show a decline in the private sector employment, USD could lose ground this week. Today US ISM Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 60.1 from the previous figure of 61.3, Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 55.6, Construction Spending is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1%, and Total Vehicle Sales is expected to have a slight increase to 16.8M from the previous figure of 16.7M.
Meanwhile, EUR has better chance to assert strength over USD, while USD may suffer from worse economic data in the process. Though crucial data from the US is due later this week, cautious expectations may lead to the bullish bias in the market for the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.1600 area after rejecting off the June 2018 Trend Line support recently which is expected to lead to further bullish momentum in the pair leading the price towards 1.1750 to 1.1800 resistance area. As the price remains above 1.1600 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 1.1600, 1.1500
RESISTANCE: 1.1650, 1.1750, 1.1800
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
EUR/USD analysis for October 01, 2018
2018-10-01
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.1569. Anyway, most recently, I have found that breakout of the supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found the breakout of the downward channel, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1665.
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
The AUD/USD pair will be probably continue to climp from the level of 0.7233 in the long term. It should be noted that the support is established at the level of 0.7233 which represents the 50% Fibonacci retracement level on the H4 chart. The price is likely to form a double bottom in the same time frame. Accordingly, the AUD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.7260. So, buy above the level of 0.7260 with the first target at 0.7309 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 0.7346. Besides, it might be noted that the level of 0.7379 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the AUD/USD pair breaks through the support level of 0.7233, a further decline to 0.7153 can occur which would indicate a bearish market.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for October 1, 2018
2018-10-01
EUR/USD has been quite impulsive inside the bearish bias recently which made the price hold at the edge of the support area from 1.1600 to 50. After the rate hike by the US Fed from 2.00% to 2.25% last week, USD gained good momentum over EUR immediately. Nevertheless, USD is struggling for gains amid downbeat economic reports from the US. So, USD gains are expected to quite short-lived in the coming days.
This week the economic calendar contains several reports from the eurozone. Thus, EUR could find good suport against USD. Today German Retail Sales report was published with an increase to -0.1% from the previous value of -1.1% but it undershot the expectation of 0.4%, Spanish Manufacturing PMI decreased to 51.4 from the previous figure of 53.0 which was expected to be at 52.7, EURO Final Manufacturing PMI was also published with decrease to 53.2 which was expected to be unchanged at 53.3 but Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate had positive impact having decreased to 9.7% from the previous value of 10.2% which was expected to increase to 10.5%.
On the other hand, ahead of the NFP reports this week, USD is expected to be quite volatile with the upcoming gains. As US nonfarm payrolls are expected to show a decline in the private sector employment, USD could lose ground this week. Today US ISM Manufacturing PMI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 60.1 from the previous figure of 61.3, Final Manufacturing PMI is expected to be unchanged at 55.6, Construction Spending is expected to increase to 0.5% from the previous value of 0.1%, and Total Vehicle Sales is expected to have a slight increase to 16.8M from the previous figure of 16.7M.
Meanwhile, EUR has better chance to assert strength over USD, while USD may suffer from worse economic data in the process. Though crucial data from the US is due later this week, cautious expectations may lead to the bullish bias in the market for the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.1600 area after rejecting off the June 2018 Trend Line support recently which is expected to lead to further bullish momentum in the pair leading the price towards 1.1750 to 1.1800 resistance area. As the price remains above 1.1600 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 1.1600, 1.1500
RESISTANCE: 1.1650, 1.1750, 1.1800
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
EUR/USD analysis for October 01, 2018
2018-10-01
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading downwards. As I expected, the price tested the level of 1.1569. Anyway, most recently, I have found that breakout of the supply trendline in the background, which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found the breakout of the downward channel, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1665.
Trading recommendations for today: watch for potential buying opportunities.
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