2018-11-14
EUR/JPY has moved into the resistance zone between 128.84 - 129.14. We expect this zone will cap the upside for a break below minor support at 128.16 that confirms wave 3 lower towards 124.91 where wave 3 will be 1.618 times the length of wave 1.
R3: 129.52
R2: 129.14
R1: 128.84
Pivot: 128.16
S1: 128.00
S2: 127.82
S3: 127.47
Trading recommendation:
Our break-even stop at 128.56 was hit and we re-sold EUR at 128.75. We have placed our stop at 129.75.
USD/CAD Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further Drop
2018-11-14
USD/CAD reversed off its resistance at 1.3250 (100% Fibonacci extension, 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 1.3182 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 97% where a corresponding drop is expected.
USD/CAD reversed off its resistance where we expect to see a further drop.
Sell below 1.3250. Stop loss at 1.3290. Take profit at 1.3182.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 14, 2018
2018-11-14
Short-term important resistance at 1.6732 has managed to cap the upside, but the extremely oversold situation will likely push prices back above this short-term resistance soon, confirming that wave i/ or a/ has completed and a correction in wave ii/ or b/ is developing for a rally towards 1.7143.
That said, we need to accept, that the strong decline from 1.7929 could push lower towards solid support near 1.6563 completing wave i/ or a/.
R3: 1.6911
R2: 1.6832
R1: 1.6732
Pivot: 1.6675
S1: 1.6660
S2: 1.6563
S3: 1.6518
Trading recommendation:
We will at 1.6525 or upon a break above 1.6732.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for November 14, 2018
2018-11-14
USD/JPY is currently quite indecisive and volatile after having an impulsive run above 113.00 area recently. USD has been holding the upper hand over JPY for a few days, but it is currently struggling to maintain momentum over JPY due to the US budget report which revealed deficit.
In light of recent reports, US Employment reports were quite positive but the US Budget report for October showed deficit of $100.5 billion which had a negative impact on the US currency, leading to certain weakness. Though USD is currently making a pullback, there are still certain reasons for USD to regain its momentum in the future which include the strong likelihood of a rate hike, Equity Market Pressure, and portectionist trade policy. Moreover, upbeat economic data will also be an inevitable tool for the US currency to regain its momentum in the coming days. This week, Fed Chair Powell's speech could provide some clues as of the rate hike decisions and further monetary policy. His speech might have a bigger impact for a definite trend pressure in the short term.
On the JPY side, due to soft economic reports JPY could not take advantage over USD which led to certain indecision in the market. Recently Japan's PPI report was published with a decrease to 2.9% from the previous value of 3.0% which did slightly better than the expectation of decrease to 2.8%. Besides, Prelim Machine Tool Orders decreased to -1.1% from the previous value of 2.9%. Japan has been quite rapid with the recent Financial Boom, especially in the banking sector. However, BOJ warns investors to excercise cautioun. Downbeat economic data recently somehow confirmed that investors are revising their portfolios, pulling out the money from JPY. Today Japan's Prelim GDP report was published with a decrease to -0.3% as expected from the previous value of 0.7% and Prelim GDP Price Index also decreased to -0.3% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to be at -0.1%. Tertiary Industry Activity also decreased to -1.1% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at -0.4% and Revised Industrial Production was slightly better increasing to -0.4% which was expected to be unchanged at -1.1%.
Meanwhile, JPY has been hurt by the economic reports. The pair is likely to make corrections and trade with higher volatility. The market-moving event this week is Fed Chair's speech. Thus, USD may gain impulsive momentum. Ahead of the speech, certain pullbacks may be observed as gains on JPY side before the price moves higher in the future.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite corrective and volatile without definite trend momentum in place for last two days after breaking above 113.00 area with a daily close. The price is currently expected to push lower towards 113.00 area for a retest before pushing higher towards 114.50 in the coming days. As the price consistently rejected bulls for two days, the bears are showing their presence in the market which might lead to short-term bearish gains before the price continues to push higher with the trend. As the price remains above 112.00 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 110.50, 112.00, 113.00
RESISTANCE: 114.50, 115.00
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 14, 2018
2018-11-14
EUR/USD has bounced as expected from 1.1230 area towards 1.13 as we expected in our previous analysis. Here at 1.13 we have short-term confluence of resistance. Previous lows that was once support is here. 38% Fibonacci retracement is here. And our own proprietary indicator resistance is here as well.
2018-11-14
Short-term important resistance at 1.6732 has managed to cap the upside, but the extremely oversold situation will likely push prices back above this short-term resistance soon, confirming that wave i/ or a/ has completed and a correction in wave ii/ or b/ is developing for a rally towards 1.7143.
That said, we need to accept, that the strong decline from 1.7929 could push lower towards solid support near 1.6563 completing wave i/ or a/.
R3: 1.6911
R2: 1.6832
R1: 1.6732
Pivot: 1.6675
S1: 1.6660
S2: 1.6563
S3: 1.6518
Trading recommendation:
We will at 1.6525 or upon a break above 1.6732.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for November 14, 2018
2018-11-14
USD/JPY is currently quite indecisive and volatile after having an impulsive run above 113.00 area recently. USD has been holding the upper hand over JPY for a few days, but it is currently struggling to maintain momentum over JPY due to the US budget report which revealed deficit.
In light of recent reports, US Employment reports were quite positive but the US Budget report for October showed deficit of $100.5 billion which had a negative impact on the US currency, leading to certain weakness. Though USD is currently making a pullback, there are still certain reasons for USD to regain its momentum in the future which include the strong likelihood of a rate hike, Equity Market Pressure, and portectionist trade policy. Moreover, upbeat economic data will also be an inevitable tool for the US currency to regain its momentum in the coming days. This week, Fed Chair Powell's speech could provide some clues as of the rate hike decisions and further monetary policy. His speech might have a bigger impact for a definite trend pressure in the short term.
On the JPY side, due to soft economic reports JPY could not take advantage over USD which led to certain indecision in the market. Recently Japan's PPI report was published with a decrease to 2.9% from the previous value of 3.0% which did slightly better than the expectation of decrease to 2.8%. Besides, Prelim Machine Tool Orders decreased to -1.1% from the previous value of 2.9%. Japan has been quite rapid with the recent Financial Boom, especially in the banking sector. However, BOJ warns investors to excercise cautioun. Downbeat economic data recently somehow confirmed that investors are revising their portfolios, pulling out the money from JPY. Today Japan's Prelim GDP report was published with a decrease to -0.3% as expected from the previous value of 0.7% and Prelim GDP Price Index also decreased to -0.3% from the previous value of 0.0% which was expected to be at -0.1%. Tertiary Industry Activity also decreased to -1.1% from the previous value of 0.4% which was expected to be at -0.4% and Revised Industrial Production was slightly better increasing to -0.4% which was expected to be unchanged at -1.1%.
Meanwhile, JPY has been hurt by the economic reports. The pair is likely to make corrections and trade with higher volatility. The market-moving event this week is Fed Chair's speech. Thus, USD may gain impulsive momentum. Ahead of the speech, certain pullbacks may be observed as gains on JPY side before the price moves higher in the future.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite corrective and volatile without definite trend momentum in place for last two days after breaking above 113.00 area with a daily close. The price is currently expected to push lower towards 113.00 area for a retest before pushing higher towards 114.50 in the coming days. As the price consistently rejected bulls for two days, the bears are showing their presence in the market which might lead to short-term bearish gains before the price continues to push higher with the trend. As the price remains above 112.00 area, the bullish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 110.50, 112.00, 113.00
RESISTANCE: 114.50, 115.00
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 14, 2018
2018-11-14
EUR/USD has bounced as expected from 1.1230 area towards 1.13 as we expected in our previous analysis. Here at 1.13 we have short-term confluence of resistance. Previous lows that was once support is here. 38% Fibonacci retracement is here. And our own proprietary indicator resistance is here as well.
Red dots - short-term maximum resistance
Blue dots - short-term medium strength support
Green lines - expected path
On a daily basis resistance is at 1.1375 while at 1.1390 we have the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance. If EUR/USD manages to break and hold above the red dots in the 4 hour chart, we could then see a move towards the 1.1375-1.1390 area. A rejection at current level of resistance at 1.13 could lead to new lows. Support is at 1.1240-1.1220. Breaking below this level will push price below 1.12 towards 1.1150.
Technical analysis for Gold for November 14, 2018
2018-11-14
Gold remains weak. Despite the Dollar weakness seen yesterday Gold could not move close to the $1,210-15 resistance area for a bounce. Price made a low at $1,196 and is now trading at $1,203.70. Trend remains bearish. Gold could bounce higher but overall I expect new short-term lows.
Blue dots - short-term medium strength support
Green lines - expected path
On a daily basis resistance is at 1.1375 while at 1.1390 we have the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement resistance. If EUR/USD manages to break and hold above the red dots in the 4 hour chart, we could then see a move towards the 1.1375-1.1390 area. A rejection at current level of resistance at 1.13 could lead to new lows. Support is at 1.1240-1.1220. Breaking below this level will push price below 1.12 towards 1.1150.
Technical analysis for Gold for November 14, 2018
2018-11-14
Gold remains weak. Despite the Dollar weakness seen yesterday Gold could not move close to the $1,210-15 resistance area for a bounce. Price made a low at $1,196 and is now trading at $1,203.70. Trend remains bearish. Gold could bounce higher but overall I expect new short-term lows.
Red rectangle - resistance
Magenta rectangle - short-term resistance (previous support)
Blue rectangle - major support
Gold price has resistance at $1,210-15 and support at $1,185-80 area. Trend is bearish and only a break above $1,223 could be seen as a bullish signal. Support is at recent low of $1,196 and next at $1,185. I expect price to bounce higher before moving lower towards the blue target area. As long as Gold price is below $1,244 we remain bearish longer-term.
Magenta rectangle - short-term resistance (previous support)
Blue rectangle - major support
Gold price has resistance at $1,210-15 and support at $1,185-80 area. Trend is bearish and only a break above $1,223 could be seen as a bullish signal. Support is at recent low of $1,196 and next at $1,185. I expect price to bounce higher before moving lower towards the blue target area. As long as Gold price is below $1,244 we remain bearish longer-term.
Get Bonus No Deposite in your Trading Account now and add this currency pair to your forex portfolio, enjoy your trading with us!
No comments:
Post a Comment