2018-11-27
EUR/JPY continues to consolidate within the range from 127.74 to 129.23. We continue to favor a break below support at 127.74 for a continuation lower to 123.66 to complete wave (E) of the huge triangle formation, that has been building since July 2008.
Only an unexpected break above resistance at 129.23 will be cause of concern, while a break above resistance at 130.13 will confirm that wave (E) already completed with the test of 124.59 and a new impulsive rally is building.
R3: 130.13
R2: 129.23
R1: 129.06
Pivot: 128.90
S1: 128.40
S2: 128.00
S3: 127.74
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 128.75 with our stop+revers placed at 129.50.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for November 27 - 2018
2018-11-27
We are still looking for a firm break above minor resistance at 1.6767 for a continuation higher to at least 1.6915 and likely even closer to resistance near 1.7023,
Short-term support is seen 1.6698, which ideally will protect the downside for the expected break above 1.6767, but it will take an unexpected break below support at 1.6638 to cause concern and indicate that wave iv/ could have completed prematurely.
R3: 1.6879
R2: 1.6836
R1: 1.6832
Pivot: 1.6767
S1: 1.16731
S2: 1.6706
S3: 1.6642
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 1.6706 with our stop placed at 1.6555. We will raise our stop to break-even upon a break above 1.6767.
Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for November 27, 2018
2018-11-27
GBP/USD has been quite bearish at the edge of 1.2850 from where it is expected to sink much lower in the coming days. GBP has been weighed down due to recent Brexit developments. On the other hand, despite mixed economic reports from the US USD managed to gain certain momentum.
Recently, lack of progress in the Brexit deal has badly hurt GBP. Moreover, GBP suffered a blow from resignation of the Brexit minister in protest against Theresa May's version of the divorce deal. Nevertheless, the UK is going to quit the EU with a deal. Citing some senior British Ministers, if Theresa May's Brexit deal is rejected by the parliament, there is a scenario that the UK will join the European Free Trade Zone (EFTA) which may have a positive impact on the overall economic development of the UK in the future. Recently Bank of England's Governor Carney spoke about the upcoming economic challenges regarding the interest rate issues and monetary policy which might be affected by the Brexit decision. His speech contained a dovish tone which lead GBP to lose momentum. Moreover, today CBI Realized Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 10 from the previous figure of 5.
On the USD side, ahead of the upcoming rate hike in December which is more probable despite certain arguments on it, USD is currently quite impulsive with the recent gains. Today FOMC Member Clarida is going to speak about the upcoming interest rate decision and monetary policies which is expected to be quite bullish for the currency leading to certain impulsive momentum in the nearest days. Additionally, today HPI report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 0.4% from the previous value of 0.3% and CB Consumer Confidence report is expected to decrease to 136.2 from the previous figure of 137.9. Expectations of FOMC Meeting Minutes this week have already aroused optimism in the market. Thus, USD is expected to hold the upper hand in the pair.
Meanwhile, GBP is expected to struggle further against USD due to weak fundamentals in the UK. Ahead of the highly probable rate hike, USD is expected to gain impulsive momentum, leading to non-volatile gains.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently quite impulsive amid the bearish pressure while residing below 1.2850. The pair is expected to reach 1.2650 support area in the coming days. Despite ongoing volatility, the price is expected to trade lower amid the bearish pressure in volatile price momentum. As the price remains below 1.30 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 1.2550, 1.2650
RESISTANCE: 1.2850, 1.2920, 1.30
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis for Gold for November 27, 2018
2018-11-27
Gold price is slowly and steadily turning lower and away from the resistance area and major trend change level of $1,243.50 after topping around $1,230. Gold price has given some bearish divergence signs and according to our plan and expectations is turning lower.
Blue rectnagle -major resistance
Red rectangle - short-term resistance
Green line - major trend line support
Gold price looks like it has finished the bounce from $1,196 at $1,230. Price should at least pull back towards $1,218 if not $1,210. As I said in previous posts I remain bearish below $1,243.50. If we see price break below the green trend line then the chances of moving below $1,180 will increase dramatically. If price holds above $1,210-$1,200 area then we could see another strong bounce towards $1,240. For now we remain bearish as the bounce is over and we are due for a pull back if not a new downward trend to new lows.
Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 27, 2018
2018-11-27
EUR/USD bounced towards 1.1360-1.1380 and got rejected. Price reversed sharply lower below 1.1330. Trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.1435. We remain bearish looking for a move towards 1.12-1.11.
Yellow rectangle - resistance
Red rectangle - short-term resistance
Green rectangle - support
Blue line - trend line support (broken)
With the trend line support broken we noted that EUR/USD was poised to move lower. Price managed to put a bounce yesterday and recapture 1.14 but sellers were stronger and price did not even close above the red rectangle area which was previously support. Price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Trend remains bearish in the short-term after the rejection at 1.1450. I remain bearish looking for a move towards 1.12-1.11 at least. Resistance is at 1.1385 and 1.1435. I do not want to see these levels broken to the upside. If this happens we could see another final bounce towards 1.15-1.16 before lower. If we break below 1.1270 the chances for a bigger bounce will diminish dramatically.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for November 27, 2018
2018-11-27
EUR/JPY remains inside a trading range between 127.50 to 129.50. The pair is trading in the indecisive manner, being volatile for a few days in a row. Both currencies in the pair are struggling to gain momentum due to downbeat fundamentals, published recently that confuses the market sentiment.
The biggest challenge in front of EUR recently is taly's 2019 budget deficit which, if not settled in the coming days, may lead to severe weakness of the eurozone's economy. Though recently ECB President Draghi spoke about a slowdown in the eurozone's economy which is quite normal from his viewpoint. He expects slower but consistent inflation acceleration, leading to a better economy structure in the future. Tomorrow M3 Money Supply report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.5%, Private Loans to increase to 3.2% from the previous value of 3.1%, and German GfK Consumer Climate is expected to have a slight decrease to 10.5 from the previous figure of 10.6. Moreover, the eurozone is also worried about Brexit which is assumed to deal a blow to the European economy if UK Prime Minister Theresa May's proposals are accepted.
On the JPY side, BOJ has been quite cautious about the recent Monetary Policy due to recent troubles in the financial sector. Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda expressed confidence about the balance sheet shrinkage without disruption of the markets. He also hinted the prospects of abandoning the ultra-loose monetary policy. Though BOJ is currently undergoing certain challenges, the regulator is optimistic about stable growth in the future. Today Japan's SPPI report was published with an increase to 1.3% from the previous value of 1.1% which was expected to be at 1.2% and BOJ Core CPI also increased to 0.6% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. Moreover, in the coming days Japan's Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 2.7% from the previous value of 2.2%.
Meanwhile, JPY is quite solid ahead of upcoming economic reports and development plans from BOJ despite some headwinds. Though EUR has been quite positive with the recent gains, sustainability is not quite assured as JPY performed quite well on the back of the economic reports published today. This is keeping buyers under pressure. To sum up, further indecisive momentum is expected in the pair until the eurozone or Japan comes up with better reports to enable the market to express particular sentiment.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with bullish gains yesterday after impulsive bearish pressure earlier while currently the price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance inside the corrective range of 127.50-129.50 area. In the meantime, a breakout above 129.50 or below 127.50 with a daily close is required to clear up future price actions. Nevertheless, the price is expected to move lower as it remains below 129.50 area with a daily close with a target towards 126.50 support area.
SUPPORT: 126.50, 127.50
RESISTANCE: 129.50, 130.00
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Red rectangle - short-term resistance
Green line - major trend line support
Gold price looks like it has finished the bounce from $1,196 at $1,230. Price should at least pull back towards $1,218 if not $1,210. As I said in previous posts I remain bearish below $1,243.50. If we see price break below the green trend line then the chances of moving below $1,180 will increase dramatically. If price holds above $1,210-$1,200 area then we could see another strong bounce towards $1,240. For now we remain bearish as the bounce is over and we are due for a pull back if not a new downward trend to new lows.
Technical analysis for EUR/USD for November 27, 2018
2018-11-27
EUR/USD bounced towards 1.1360-1.1380 and got rejected. Price reversed sharply lower below 1.1330. Trend remains bearish as long as price is below 1.1435. We remain bearish looking for a move towards 1.12-1.11.
Yellow rectangle - resistance
Red rectangle - short-term resistance
Green rectangle - support
Blue line - trend line support (broken)
With the trend line support broken we noted that EUR/USD was poised to move lower. Price managed to put a bounce yesterday and recapture 1.14 but sellers were stronger and price did not even close above the red rectangle area which was previously support. Price continues to make lower lows and lower highs. Trend remains bearish in the short-term after the rejection at 1.1450. I remain bearish looking for a move towards 1.12-1.11 at least. Resistance is at 1.1385 and 1.1435. I do not want to see these levels broken to the upside. If this happens we could see another final bounce towards 1.15-1.16 before lower. If we break below 1.1270 the chances for a bigger bounce will diminish dramatically.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for November 27, 2018
2018-11-27
EUR/JPY remains inside a trading range between 127.50 to 129.50. The pair is trading in the indecisive manner, being volatile for a few days in a row. Both currencies in the pair are struggling to gain momentum due to downbeat fundamentals, published recently that confuses the market sentiment.
The biggest challenge in front of EUR recently is taly's 2019 budget deficit which, if not settled in the coming days, may lead to severe weakness of the eurozone's economy. Though recently ECB President Draghi spoke about a slowdown in the eurozone's economy which is quite normal from his viewpoint. He expects slower but consistent inflation acceleration, leading to a better economy structure in the future. Tomorrow M3 Money Supply report is going to be published which is expected to be unchanged at 3.5%, Private Loans to increase to 3.2% from the previous value of 3.1%, and German GfK Consumer Climate is expected to have a slight decrease to 10.5 from the previous figure of 10.6. Moreover, the eurozone is also worried about Brexit which is assumed to deal a blow to the European economy if UK Prime Minister Theresa May's proposals are accepted.
On the JPY side, BOJ has been quite cautious about the recent Monetary Policy due to recent troubles in the financial sector. Bank of Japan's Governor Kuroda expressed confidence about the balance sheet shrinkage without disruption of the markets. He also hinted the prospects of abandoning the ultra-loose monetary policy. Though BOJ is currently undergoing certain challenges, the regulator is optimistic about stable growth in the future. Today Japan's SPPI report was published with an increase to 1.3% from the previous value of 1.1% which was expected to be at 1.2% and BOJ Core CPI also increased to 0.6% which was expected to be unchanged at 0.5%. Moreover, in the coming days Japan's Retail Sales report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 2.7% from the previous value of 2.2%.
Meanwhile, JPY is quite solid ahead of upcoming economic reports and development plans from BOJ despite some headwinds. Though EUR has been quite positive with the recent gains, sustainability is not quite assured as JPY performed quite well on the back of the economic reports published today. This is keeping buyers under pressure. To sum up, further indecisive momentum is expected in the pair until the eurozone or Japan comes up with better reports to enable the market to express particular sentiment.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has been quite impulsive with bullish gains yesterday after impulsive bearish pressure earlier while currently the price is being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance inside the corrective range of 127.50-129.50 area. In the meantime, a breakout above 129.50 or below 127.50 with a daily close is required to clear up future price actions. Nevertheless, the price is expected to move lower as it remains below 129.50 area with a daily close with a target towards 126.50 support area.
SUPPORT: 126.50, 127.50
RESISTANCE: 129.50, 130.00
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
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