2018-12-14
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.
On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.
On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.
Bullish fixation above 1.1420 was needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.
The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. Thus, the pair remains trapped between 1.1420 and 1.1270 until breakout occurs in either direction.
If early bearish breakout below 1.1270 is achieved on lower timeframes, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards 1.1150-1.1100.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for GBP/USD for December 14, 2018
2018-12-14
Since Mid-November, the GBP/USD pair failed to establish a successful bullish breakout above the price level of 1.2880 (the upper limit of the depicted consolidation range).
On the other hand, two unsuccessful bearish breakout attempts were demonstrated below 1.2720 during last week's consolidations.
During Friday's consolidations, the GBP/USD pair failed to fixate above 1.2780 (79.6% Fibonacci). That's why, a significant decline was demonstrated below 1.2700-1.2660 (Historical bottoms) during this week's consolidations.
The current scenario could pursue as a bearish flag continuation pattern provided that bearish persistence below 1.2660 (corresponding to a prominent daily low) is maintained on daily basis.
Any bullish pullback towards the price zone of 1.2660-1.2700 can be watched for a valid SELL entry as this price zone corresponds to the backside of the broken consolidation range as well as the depicted downtrend on H4 chart.
Projected target for the bearish flag continuation pattern is located around 1.2300. Initial bearish destination is located around 1.2580 while S/L should be set as daily closure above 1.2800.
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 14, 2018
2018-12-14
Overview:
The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.1338 towards 1.1265. Now, the price is set at 1.1330. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.1338 and 1.1390. Moreover, the price area of 1.1390/1.1338 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1338 and 1.1253. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1338, the market will decline further to 1.1253 as as the first target. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1197 so as to test the daily support 2. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1338, then this scenario may become invalidated.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 14, 2018
2018-12-14
Overview:
The USD/CHF pair continue to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 1.0142 or heigher. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9863.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for December 14, 2018
2018-12-14
USD/CAD has been quite non-volatile with the recent bullish gains which is expected to lead the price towards 1.3450 resistance area in the coming days. Despite the softer rhetoric of the US Fed on monetary tightening and downbeat employment reports, USD managed to sustain the bullish momentum over CAD which is expected to turn a bit volatile in the coming days.
The risk of US recession in the next two years has risen to 40%. Besides, the Federal Reserve is going to rvise its agenda and ease a pace of rate hikes for 2019. Yesterday US Import Prices report was published with a decrease to -1.6% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at -1.0% and Unemployment Claims have been quite positive with a decrease to 206k from the previous figure of 233k which was expected to be at 226k. Today US Core Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.7% and Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.8%. Moreover, Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1% and Business Inventories is also expected to increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.3%.
On the other hand, CAD has been quite positive amid Canada's employment reports which did not quite help the currency to gain impulsive counter momentum over USD. This week Canada also posted some reprts with mixed readings. As a result, CAD lost further momentum. Ahead of CPI, GDP and Retail Sales reports to be published next week, CAD is expected to struggle further in the process.
Meanwhile, USD is expected to sustain the bullish momentum further but with certain volatility due to bad fundamentals. Any positive news from Canada can easily support CAD.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has formed Bearish Divergence for a few weeks which is expected to lead to certain bearish pressure but after the price bounces off the 1.3450 resistance area with a daily close. Non-volatile trend but a strong pullback indicates the weakness of bulls. As the price remains below 1.3500 area with a daily close, there are certain probabilities of a bullish counter-move in the coming days.
SUPPORT: 1.3150, 1.3300
RESISTANCE: 1.3450, 1.3500
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for December 14, 2018
2018-12-14
NZD/USD is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure, breaking below the 0.6850 area. Amid the recent economic reports and fundamental events, USD has managed to gain momentum over NZD, and this gain is expected to continue further.
New Zealand has been trying to improve its current banking system. RBNZ being stubborn about the interest rate and monetary policy decisions is assumed as the leading factor for sudden weakness of NZD. Recently, New Zealand FPI report has been published unchanged at -0.6% and today, Business NZ Manufacturing Index report has been released with a decrease to 53.5 from the previous figure of 53.7. The worse economic result caused NZD to lose grounds, pushing it much lower.
On the other hand, USD has been recently struggling to gain momentum over NZD amid the economic results and indecision of Federal Funds Rate Hike which confused the market sentiment for the upcoming momentum of the currency in the market. The risk of the US recession in the next two years has risen to 40% against the background of the sudden change in the interest rate hike decision for 2019. Recently, US Import Prices report has been published with a decrease to -1.6% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at -1.0%. Besides, Unemployment Claims has been released with a positive result with a decrease to 206k from the previous figure of 233k which was expected to be at 226k. Today, US Core Retail Sales is expected to decline to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.7%; and Retail Sales Index is expected to be down to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.8%. Moreover, Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%; and Business Inventories is also estimated to grow to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.3%.
Under the current scenario, USD is expected to sustain the bearish momentum in the pair while NZD is losing grounds due to worse economic results. Nevertheless, there is a chance that NZD will gain back momentum next week, since ANZ Business Confidence report is going to be published with a positive result in the market.
Now let us look from a technical perspective. After the previous formation of Bearish Divergence, the price is currently residing below the area of 0.6850 with a strong bearish pressure which is expected to close with a daily candle below the area as well. The price has recently pierced below the dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates further bearish pressure in the coming days. As the price remains below the area of 0.6850 with a daily close, it is expected to push towards the 0.6700 area from where certain bullish pressure is expected in the future.
SUPPORT: 0.6500, 0.6700
RESISTANCE: 0.6850, 0.6950, 0.70
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
The USD/CHF pair continue to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart. Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. There are no changes in our technical outlook. The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 1.0142 or heigher. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend. According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058. Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058. In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216. However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9863.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for December 14, 2018
2018-12-14
USD/CAD has been quite non-volatile with the recent bullish gains which is expected to lead the price towards 1.3450 resistance area in the coming days. Despite the softer rhetoric of the US Fed on monetary tightening and downbeat employment reports, USD managed to sustain the bullish momentum over CAD which is expected to turn a bit volatile in the coming days.
The risk of US recession in the next two years has risen to 40%. Besides, the Federal Reserve is going to rvise its agenda and ease a pace of rate hikes for 2019. Yesterday US Import Prices report was published with a decrease to -1.6% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at -1.0% and Unemployment Claims have been quite positive with a decrease to 206k from the previous figure of 233k which was expected to be at 226k. Today US Core Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.7% and Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.8%. Moreover, Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1% and Business Inventories is also expected to increase to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.3%.
On the other hand, CAD has been quite positive amid Canada's employment reports which did not quite help the currency to gain impulsive counter momentum over USD. This week Canada also posted some reprts with mixed readings. As a result, CAD lost further momentum. Ahead of CPI, GDP and Retail Sales reports to be published next week, CAD is expected to struggle further in the process.
Meanwhile, USD is expected to sustain the bullish momentum further but with certain volatility due to bad fundamentals. Any positive news from Canada can easily support CAD.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price has formed Bearish Divergence for a few weeks which is expected to lead to certain bearish pressure but after the price bounces off the 1.3450 resistance area with a daily close. Non-volatile trend but a strong pullback indicates the weakness of bulls. As the price remains below 1.3500 area with a daily close, there are certain probabilities of a bullish counter-move in the coming days.
SUPPORT: 1.3150, 1.3300
RESISTANCE: 1.3450, 1.3500
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Fundamental Analysis of NZD/USD for December 14, 2018
2018-12-14
NZD/USD is currently quite impulsive with the bearish pressure, breaking below the 0.6850 area. Amid the recent economic reports and fundamental events, USD has managed to gain momentum over NZD, and this gain is expected to continue further.
New Zealand has been trying to improve its current banking system. RBNZ being stubborn about the interest rate and monetary policy decisions is assumed as the leading factor for sudden weakness of NZD. Recently, New Zealand FPI report has been published unchanged at -0.6% and today, Business NZ Manufacturing Index report has been released with a decrease to 53.5 from the previous figure of 53.7. The worse economic result caused NZD to lose grounds, pushing it much lower.
On the other hand, USD has been recently struggling to gain momentum over NZD amid the economic results and indecision of Federal Funds Rate Hike which confused the market sentiment for the upcoming momentum of the currency in the market. The risk of the US recession in the next two years has risen to 40% against the background of the sudden change in the interest rate hike decision for 2019. Recently, US Import Prices report has been published with a decrease to -1.6% from the previous value of 0.5% which was expected to be at -1.0%. Besides, Unemployment Claims has been released with a positive result with a decrease to 206k from the previous figure of 233k which was expected to be at 226k. Today, US Core Retail Sales is expected to decline to 0.2% from the previous value of 0.7%; and Retail Sales Index is expected to be down to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.8%. Moreover, Industrial Production is expected to increase to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.1%; and Business Inventories is also estimated to grow to 0.6% from the previous value of 0.3%.
Under the current scenario, USD is expected to sustain the bearish momentum in the pair while NZD is losing grounds due to worse economic results. Nevertheless, there is a chance that NZD will gain back momentum next week, since ANZ Business Confidence report is going to be published with a positive result in the market.
Now let us look from a technical perspective. After the previous formation of Bearish Divergence, the price is currently residing below the area of 0.6850 with a strong bearish pressure which is expected to close with a daily candle below the area as well. The price has recently pierced below the dynamic level of 20 EMA which indicates further bearish pressure in the coming days. As the price remains below the area of 0.6850 with a daily close, it is expected to push towards the 0.6700 area from where certain bullish pressure is expected in the future.
SUPPORT: 0.6500, 0.6700
RESISTANCE: 0.6850, 0.6950, 0.70
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
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