2018-12-17
Important resistance at 129.29 held firm and rejected the rally in the EUR/JPY pair for a strong decline. In the short-term, we see resistance at 128.70, which was expected to cap the upside for the next decline in order to test strong support at 127.70. A break below this support will complete the B-wave triangle and confirm that the lower wave C is developing towards the ideal long-term target at 123.66.
In addition to resistance at 128.70, key resistance is seen at 129.25. This resistance must cap any rally at any time or our bearish view will be invalidated.
R3: 129.62
R2: 129.25
R1: 128.70
Pivot: 128.43
S1: 127.96
S2: 127.70
S3: 127.20
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR at 128.05 and we will move our stop+reverse lower to 129.30.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 17, 2018
2018-12-17
EUR/NZD turned lower from 1.6728 right from the middle of our target-zone between 1.6694 - 1.6760. The strong decline from the peak of wave iv at 1.6728 confirms wave v lower to 1.6169 now is in motion.
Short-term, we are looking for resistance near 1.6675, which we expected will cap the upside for the next strong decline to below 1.6590 and more importantly below support at 1.6527 that should accelerate prices lower towards the long-term target at 1.6169.
R3: 1.6728
R2: 1.6702
R1: 1.6675
Pivot: 1.6636
S1: 1.6612
S2: 1.6590
S3: 1.6527
Trading recommendation:
We will sell EUR at 1.6665 or upon a break below 1.6620 and we will place our stop at 1.6735.
Technical analysis for EUR/USD for December 17, 2018
2018-12-17
EUR/USD broke out and below the triangle pattern last week. This was a bearish sign. Price is bouncing and could make a back test of the lower triangle boundary early this week. A rejection at the lower triangle boundary would be another bearish sign that would make me expect price to move towards 1.12 and lower. So far our first target of 1.1270 after the break of the triangle has been reached.
Red line - major trend line resistance
Blue lines - triangle pattern
Green line - RSI Support
EUR/USD is bouncing back above 1.13. We consider this bounce as a back test of the broken triangle pattern. If however price moves back inside the triangle, we will start looking at this move as a failed break down. This would be a bullish sign. Breaking above the upper triangle boundary would be a confirmed failed break down and this would be an even more bullish sign. Trend change will happen only if the red trend line resistance breaks. Bears on the other hand want to see prices get rejected at 1.13-1.1320 and move lower. If the Daily RSI breaks below the green trend line support, we should expect prices to move towards 1.11.
Technical analysis for Gold for December 17, 2018
2018-12-17
Gold price pulled back towards our short-term target area and the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Price bounced but as long as price is below $1,244 we expect more downside to follow towards $1,230.
Blue lines - triangle pattern
Green line - RSI Support
EUR/USD is bouncing back above 1.13. We consider this bounce as a back test of the broken triangle pattern. If however price moves back inside the triangle, we will start looking at this move as a failed break down. This would be a bullish sign. Breaking above the upper triangle boundary would be a confirmed failed break down and this would be an even more bullish sign. Trend change will happen only if the red trend line resistance breaks. Bears on the other hand want to see prices get rejected at 1.13-1.1320 and move lower. If the Daily RSI breaks below the green trend line support, we should expect prices to move towards 1.11.
Technical analysis for Gold for December 17, 2018
2018-12-17
Gold price pulled back towards our short-term target area and the 38% Fibonacci retracement. Price bounced but as long as price is below $1,244 we expect more downside to follow towards $1,230.
Green rectangles - support levels
Blue line - short-term important trend line support
Green line- major trend line support
Red rectangle - short-term target
Gold price remains in a medium-term bullish up trend having started back in August. In the short-term the move that started at $1,211 is complete at $1,250 which was our minimum target once $1,230 broke upwards. Price is now pulling back. A move back below $1,230 would be a bearish sign. The blue trend line support is important for the short-term bullish scenario. The Green trend line is the most important level for the medium-term bullish trend. If price breaks the green trend line we could see Gold back below $1,200 if not $1,180 again. Gold price should find support above $1,230 and start its next leg towards $1,270. If support is not respected, expect $1,210 to be challenged.
Blue line - short-term important trend line support
Green line- major trend line support
Red rectangle - short-term target
Gold price remains in a medium-term bullish up trend having started back in August. In the short-term the move that started at $1,211 is complete at $1,250 which was our minimum target once $1,230 broke upwards. Price is now pulling back. A move back below $1,230 would be a bearish sign. The blue trend line support is important for the short-term bullish scenario. The Green trend line is the most important level for the medium-term bullish trend. If price breaks the green trend line we could see Gold back below $1,200 if not $1,180 again. Gold price should find support above $1,230 and start its next leg towards $1,270. If support is not respected, expect $1,210 to be challenged.
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