2018-12-06
AUD/USD has been impulsive amid the bearish pressure which is leading the price towards 0.7150 support area. AUD has been hurt by recent economic reports. On the other hand, USD finds suport from the strong likelihood of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve. As a result, the pair has gain impulsive bearish momentum.
Yesterday Australia's GDP report was published where economic growth slowed down to 0.3% from the previous value of 0.9%, undershooting expectations for 0.6% expansion. AIG Service Index jumped to 55.1 from the previous figure of 51.1. Today Australia's Retail Sales report was published which showed 0.3% growth in October from a minor 0.1% gain in September. Trade Balance surplus decreased to 2.32B from the previous figure of 2.94B instead of the increase to 3.10B. Due to the downbeat statistics, AUD took a nosedive. Moreover, AUD is losing ground amid the risk aversion sentiment as the US and China could reignite trade tensions.
On the USD side, the US Labor Department is due to release NFP on Friday. The data is expected to be weak. Today Revised Non-Farm Productivity report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 2.3% from the previous value of 2.2%, Revised Unit Labor Cost is expected to decrease to 1.1% from the previous value of 1.2%, Trade Balance is likely to decrease to -55.2B from the previous figure of-54.0B, Unemployment Claims is expected to contract to 226k from the previous figure of 234k, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop to 59.1 from the previous figure of 60.3. Moreover, FOMC Member Bostic is going to speak today about the upcoming interest rate and monetary policy rhetoric. His speech is expected to contribute to further USD gains.
Meantime, ahead of FED Chairman Powell's speech and NFP economic reports USD is expected to trade with higher volatility and impulsive momentum against AUD. Any positive data from Australia in the coming days may lead to further corrections. As USD finds solid support from the positive economic data, USD is holding the upper hand over AUD in the short run.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing below the dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close while pushing lower towards 0.7050-0.7150 support area in the process. The price forming Bearish Divergence managed to sink lower towards the support area from where it is expected to push higher towards 0.7450 resistance area in the future. As the price remains above 0.70 area with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 0.70, 0.7050, 0.7150
RESISTANCE: 0.7450, 0.7500
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for December 06, 2018
2018-12-06
Overview:
The EUR/USD pair fell from the level of 1.1338 towards 1.1265. Now, the price is set at 1.1330. The resistance is seen at the level of 1.1338 and 1.1390. Moreover, the price area of 1.1390/1.1338 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the EUR/USD pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 1.1338 and 1.1253. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1338, the market will decline further to 1.1253 as as the first target. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1197 so as to test the daily support 2. On the contrary, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1338, then this scenario may become invalidated.
Fundamental Analysis of USD/CAD for December 6, 2018
2018-12-06
USD/CAD has been non-volatile and impulsive amid the bullish pressure, leading the price above 1.3350 with a daily close. Ahead of a widely expected rate hike by the Federal Reserve, Powell's speech, and NFP this week, USD has been dominating CAD consistently which may lead to certain bearish intervention in the coming days.
Despite some headwinds, USD managed to sustain the impulsive bullish momentum over CAD which was quite remarkable despite the recent mixed US economic data and softer rhetoric of the Federal Reserve. Analysts predict weak nonfarm payrolls. Today Revised Non-Farm Productivity report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 2.3% from the previous value of 2.2%, Revised Unit Labor Cost is expected to decrease to 1.1% from the previous value of 1.2%, Trade Balance could have decreased to -55.2B from the previous figure of-54.0B, Unemployment Claims are expected to contract to 226k from the previous figure of 234k, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to decrease to 59.1 from the previous figure of 60.3. Moreover, FOMC Member Bostic is going to speak today about the upcoming interest rate and monetary policy rhetoric. His speech could contribute to further USD gains.
On the other hand, the Bank of Canada left the target overnight rate unchanged at 1.75%. The Policy Statement indicated a minor slowdown in the economic growth which is acknowledged to be stable and consistent. Today Bank of Canada's Governor Poloz is going to speak about the short-term interest rate decisions and future monetary policies that is expected to inject volatility. Moreover, tomorrow Canada's Employment Change is expected to decrease to 10.3k from the previous figure of 11.2k and Unemployment Rate is expected to be unchanged at 5.8%.
Meantime, the pair is set to trade with higher volatility ahead of macroeconomic reports from the US and Canada which are due later this week. Bearish intervention is not ruled out. Though USD has been the dominant currency in the pair, certain pullbacks may be observed if CAD performs better than expected on the back of the economic reports as well as a hawkish statement from Poloz today.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 1.3400 area leading the price towards 1.3500 resistance area from where it is expected to push lower towards 1.3220-1.3350 area in the coming days. Though the price is still quite impulsive with the bullish pressure, Bearish Divergence emerging in the price structure for a long period of time may come as a strong counter-move. As the price remains below 1.3500 area, certain pullback towards 1.3220-1.3350 support area is expected in the coming days before it continues with the bullish trend again.
SUPPORT: 1.3220, 1.3350
RESISTANCE: 1.3500
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE and IMPULSIVE
Technical analysis of USD/CHF for December 06, 2018
2018-12-06
Overview:The USD/CHF pair continue to trade upwards from the level of 0.9951 on the H4 chart.
Today, the first support level is currently seen at 0.9951, the price is moving in a bullish channel now. There are no changes in our technical outlook.
The bias remains bullish in the nearest term testing 1.0142 or heigher. Furthermore, the price has been set above the strong support at the level of 0.9951, which coincides with the daily pivot point. This support has been rejected three times confirming the veracity of an uptrend.
According to the previous events, we expect the USD/CHF pair to trade between 0.9951 and 1.0058. So, the support stands at 0.9951, while daily resistance is found at 1.0058.
Therefore, the market is likely to show signs of a bullish trend around the spot of 1.0058.
In other words, buy orders are recommended above the spot of 1.0058/0.9951with the first target at the level of 1.0142; and continue towards 1.0216.
However, if the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.0058 today, the market will decline further to 0.9863.
GBP/USD analysis for December 06, 2018
2018-12-06
Recently, the GBP/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.2741. According to the M15 time – frame, I found out that price is trading above the Ichimoku cloud and above Kijun- sen, Tenkan-sen and pivot (1.2733), which is a sign that buyers are in control. I also found on the point and figure chart that there is a double top formation created, which is another sign of strength. My advice is to watch for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.2795 (resistance 1).
EUR/USD analysis for December 06, 2018
2018-12-06
Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.1337. According to the M30 time – frame, I found out that price is trapped in the trading range, whic is a sign of indecision. Anyway, on the point and figure chart I found a triangle pattern in progress. Watch for a breakout of the triangle to confirm further direction. Breakout of the level 1.1345 will confirm the upward price and potential testing of 1.1410. Breaking the low at 1.1320 will confirm a further downward movement and potential testing of 1.1265.
Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for EUR/USD for December 6, 2018
2018-12-06
On the weekly chart, the EUR/USD pair is demonstrating a high-probability Head and Shoulders reversal pattern where the right shoulder is currently in progress.
On the Daily chart, the pair has been moving sideways with slight bearish tendency. Recent bearish consolidations have been maintained within the depicted daily movement channel since June 2018.
On November 13, the EUR/USD demonstrated recent bullish recovery around 1.1220-1.1250 where the lower limit of the channel as well as the depicted demand zone came to meet the pair.
Bullish fixation above 1.1420 is needed to enhance further bullish movement towards 1.1520. However, the market has demonstrated significant bearish rejection around 1.1420 few times so far.
The EUR/USD pair remains under bearish pressure below 1.1420. Thus, the pair remains trapped between 1.1420 and 1.1270 until breakout occurs in either direction.
Bullish fixation above 1.1420 enhances further bullish advancement towards 1.1520 and 1.1610.
On the other hand, if early bearish breakout below 1.1270 is achieved on lower timeframes, a quick bearish decline should be expected towards 1.1150-1.1100.
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