2018-12-11
USD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the recent bullish momentum while residing inside the corrective range from 111.50 to 114.50 area. USD, having worse employment reports published recently, was quite indecisive in the process but gained ground against JPY yesterday due to worse economic reports published recently.
JPY has been quite impulsive with the recent bearish momentum leading the price to correct further in the process. Recently Japan's Bank Lending report was published with a decrease to 2.1% which was expected to be unchanged at 2.2%. Furthermore, the Current Account decreased to 1.21T from the previous figure of 1.33T which was expected to be at 1.29T, while the Final GDP decreased to -0.6% from the previous value of -0.3% which was expected to be at -0.5%. Besides, the Final GDP Price Index was unchanged as expected at -0.3%. As the BOJ is struggling with the recent Financial issues including monetary policy easing and trade war, worse economic results added to the disaster more. Ahead of several high impact economic reports this week, JPY is expected to struggle further if the results are dovish.
On the USD side, the Federal Reserve's plans to continue raising interest rates next year were met with more skepticism on Wall Street on Monday. Though the Fed had a plan to raise the interest rate in 2019 at least 3 times which is currently turning to a pause and indecision due to sharp tightening of financial conditions. As of the recent worse Employment reports, the economic situation in the US is currently quite cautious and ahead of probable rate hike decision this month certain volatility may be observed. Today the US PPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.6%. The Core PPI is also expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.5%. Moreover, tomorrow CPI report is expected to be published with a decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.3% and the Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%.
As of the current scenario, US economic reports and fundamentals are quite dovish in nature whereas JPY is also struggling with certain financial pressures. Though USD has been quite dominating with the recent price action, any worse economic results publishing in the coming days may lead to certain gains on the JPY side in the coming days. As of upcoming US rate hike became indecisive, USD may see certain shift in market sentiment in the future.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing above 113.00 area at the edge of dynamic level of 20 EMA with a daily close. Recent bullish pressure was quite impulsive but may lead to certain weakness resulting to certain bearish pressure in the process. As the price remains below 114.00-50 area with a daily close, the bearish pressure is expected to continue with a target towards 111.50 support area in the coming days.
SUPPORT: 111.50, 112.00
RESISTANCE: 114.00-50
BIAS: BULLISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 11, 2018
2018-12-11
EUR/JPY extended wave b to 128.94 before turning lower again. Short-term, we need a break below minor support at 128.10 to confirm that wave has completed and wave c lower to the long-term ideal target at 123.66 is developing.
Only an unexpected break above 129.05 will question our bearish count, but it will take a break above 129.37 to invalidate it all together and call for more upside towards 130.15
R3: 129.37
R2: 129.07
R3: 128.94
Pivot: 128.40
S1: 128.10
S2: 127.65
S3: 126.96
Trading recommendation:
We are short EUR from 128.05 with our stop placed at 129.15.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 11, 2018
2018-12-11
EUR/NZD failed to build on the rally from 1.6495, which has invalidated the potential ending diagonal. Instead a more complex b wave correction is building, which could take us all the way down to 1.6469 before moving higher to 1.6741 to complete wave iv and set the stage for a decline in wave v towards 1.6169.
Short-term a break above minor resistance at 1.6545 will indicate wave b of iv has completed, while a break above resistance at 1.6593 will confirm wave b has completed and wave c higher to 1.6741 is developing.
R3: 1.6620
R2: 1.6593
R1: 1.6545
Pivot: 1.6500
S1: 1.6469
S2: 1.6428
S3: 1.6400
Trading recommendation:
We will buy a break above 1.6545 and place our stop at 1.6485. If our buy order is done, we will place take profit at 1.6725.
Technical analysis for Gold for December 11, 2018
2018-12-11
Today we take a look at the weekly chart of Gold. Gold price made an important low back in August and since then it is rising. There is potential to move towards $1,300 again but losing $1,200, could be disastrous for bulls.
Gold has made a double top on a weekly basis around $1,340-50 area. This is a major resistance level. Breaking above it would open the way for a move towards $1,450-$1,500. Gold during September tried to make a higher high but got rejected. This was a bearish sign of weakness. However the pull back respected the upward sloping trend line and did not make a lower low. Gold price is now bouncing off the upward sloping trend line once again and this could unfold into a bigger rally towards the upper trend line resistance. In the short-term Gold is heading towards $1,250-60 or higher towards $1,285 where we find the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire decline.
As long as Gold price is trading above $1,200-$1,220 bulls remain in control of the trend. If that level fails to hold, we should expect heavy selling to push prices towards $1,000 or lower.
As long as Gold price is trading above $1,200-$1,220 bulls remain in control of the trend. If that level fails to hold, we should expect heavy selling to push prices towards $1,000 or lower.
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