Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY for December 18, 2018

Technical analysis: Intraday level for USD/JPY for December 18, 2018
2018-12-18


In Asia, Japan will not release any economic data today, but the US will publish some economic data such as Housing Starts, and Building Permits. So there is a probability that the USD/JPY pair will move with a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Resistance. 3: 113.28. Resistance. 2: 113.06. Resistance. 1: 112.84. Support. 1: 112.56. Support. 2: 112.34. Support. 3: 112.12. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Technical analysis: Intraday Level For EUR/USD for December 18, 2018
2018-12-18


When the European market opens, some economic data will be released such as German Ifo Business Climate. The US will also publish the economic data such as Housing Starts, and Building Permits, so amid the reports, the EUR/USD pair will move in a low to a medium volatility during this day. TODAY'S TECHNICAL LEVEL: Breakout BUY Level: 1.1403. Strong Resistance: 1.1396. Original Resistance: 1.1385. Inner Sell Area: 1.1374. Target Inner Area: 1.1347. Inner Buy Area: 1.1320. Original Support: 1.1309. Strong Support: 1.1298. Breakout SELL Level: 1.1291. Disclaimer: Trading Forex (foreign exchange) on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all Traders or Investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

EUR/USD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For A Reversal
2018-12-18

The EUR/USD pair is approaching its resistance at 1.1376 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 1.1337 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing low support).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its resistance at 96% where a corresponding reversal is expected.

EUR/USD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.

Sell below 1.1376. Stop loss at 1.1405. Take profit at 1.1337.



USD/CHF Approaching Support, Prepare For A Bounce
2018-12-18

The USD/CHF pair is approaching its support at 0.9909 (100% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 0.9946 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).

Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its support at 4.6% where a corresponding bounce could occur.

USD/CHF is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.

Buy above 0.9909. Stop loss at 0.9887. Take profit at 0.9946.



Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for December 18, 2018
2018-12-18



EUR/JPY has declined nicely and is currently testing the B-wave triangle support-line near 127.70. We expect this support will be broken for a continuation lower to the long-term target near 123.61, which should complete the 10 year long triangle consolidation.

In the short term a clear break below the triangle support at 127.70 confirms wave C lower is evolving. The first minor target to aim for is seen at 126.61 and then 125.19 on the way lower to the long-term ideal target at 123.61.

R3: 128.91

R2: 128.56

R1: 127.96

Pivot: 127.70

S1: 127.22

S2: 126.61

S3: 126.08

Trading recommendation:

We are short on EUR from 128.05 and we will lower our stop to 128.65.

Elliott wave analysis of EUR/NZD for December 18, 2018
2018-12-18



After a relief rally to 1.6695 EUR/NZD sold off strongly to confirm our bearish outlook and should be headed lower in wave v towards at least 1.6116.

In the short term we see resistance at 1.6587 which ideally will be able to cap the upside for continuation below support at 1.6511 that confirms more downside pressure towards 1.6427 on the way lower to the first wave v target at 1.6116.

R3: 1.6698

R2: 1.6616

R1: 1.6587

Pivot: 1.6564

S1: 1.6538

S2: 1.6510

S3: 1.6480

Trading recommendation:

We sold EUR at 1.6665 and we will move our stop lower to 1.6705.

Fundamental analysis of USD/JPY for December 18, 2018
2018-12-18

USD/JPY has been quite impulsive with the recent bearish momentum in the pair while residing between the price range of 111.50 to 114.50 area. Ahead of the federal funds rate decision, the FOMC Statement and the BOJ Policy Rate to be published this week, USD is expected to regain impulsive momentum against JPY in the current market scenario.

The weakness of USD ahead of high impact economic events and report indicates certain impulsive momentum in the process. This week the Federal Reserve is going to be announce its interest rate decision. The funds rate is expected to increase to 2.50% from the previous value of 2.25%. Though the Fed is still quite optimistic with the upcoming rate hike which is quite imminent, President Trump is opposing this rate hike cycle as he thinks it could cause great economic depression in the coming years. The Fed has recently declared that a rate hike can be delayed in 2019 but it will fulfill its target. Today the US building permits report is going to be published with an increase to 1.27M from the previous figure of 1.26M and the housing starts is expected to be unchanged at 1.23M.

On the JPY side, recently Japan's government has revised down its forecast for economic growth and consumer prices for the current and next fiscal year as weakening export demand and natural disasters weighted on the economy. Japan's economy is expected to grow by 0.9% in the fiscal year of 2018 which was expected to be at 1.5% earlier. Ahead of the BOJ Policy Rate report to be published with an unchanged value of -0.10% and the All Industry Activity to increase to 2.0% from the previous negative value of -0.9%, tomorrow Japan's trade balance report will see the light which is expected to decrease to -0.31T from the previous value of -0.30T.

As of the current scenario, USD is quite optimistic with the upcoming economic events and reports which is expected to provide immediate gains for the currency in the coming days whereas JPY is still struggling with the current economic results and the upcoming economic expectations.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing at the edge of the dynamic support of Kumo Cloud as well as the 112.50 support area from where it is expected to push higher towards 114.50 in the coming days. As for the preceding trend, the price has more chances for pushing higher whereas a break with a daily close below 111.50 is expected to lead the price much lower in the coming days. As the price remains above 111.50 with a daily close, the bullish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 111.50, 112.00-50

RESISTANCE: 114.00-50, 115.00

BIAS: BULLISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE



Technical analysis for EUR/USD for December 18, 2018
2018-12-18

EUR/USD has broken below the lower boundary of the triangle pattern and bounced strongly back inside the triangle yesterday. This could very well be a fake break down to enable traders to set stops. For this scenario to be confirmed we will need to see the price breaking above 1.1415 at least.


Red line - major trend line resistance

Blue lines -triangle pattern

Purple line - short-term resistance

Green line - RSI support trend line

With a new lower low in EUR/USD and the RSI holding above the green trend line support, we remain skeptic on the strength of this downward break out of the triangle pattern. The price has bounced back inside the pattern but below the purple resistance trend line at 1.1360. Bulls will need to break and hold above this trend line in order to hope for a full scale reversal and break out above the upper triangle boundary. A rejection at 1.1360 and a break below 1.1270 would open the way for a move towards 1.12 and lower. The medium-term trend remains bearish from 1.2550 and will change on a break above the red trend line resistance.

Technical analysis of gold for December 18, 2018
2018-12-18

Gold price bounced as expected from 38% Fibonacci retracement level. The price is now challenging the recent highs and could provide one more new higher high towards $1,260 if we manage to break above the resistance at $1,250.50.


Red rectangles - resistance areas

Green rectangle - major short-term support

Blue rectangle- target if green rectangle fails to hold

Blue line - short-term trend line support

Green line - major trend line support

Gold price continues to make higher highs and higher lows. Last week's lows are a very important short-term support. If they are broken, I expect gold price to move towards $1,225 and test the major trend line support. Gold is about to break above the recent highs at $1,250. This could lead to a move towards $1,260. However I do not believe it is risk worthy to be buying gold now as I see the entire move higher from $1,196 is about to end around $1,260 which was our longer-term target once we broke above $1,200 back in October. Bulls need to be very cautious now. The trend continues to be bullish but I believe the precious metal will need to make a bigger pullback once it completes the move from $1,196, around $1,260. The $1,260 area is a very important resistance area and I believe gold will stop the uptrend around that area.

Fundamental Analysis of GBP/USD for December 18, 2018
2018-12-18

GBP/USD is currently trading sideways with higher volatility at the edge of 1.2600 area from where the price is expected to push lower in the coming days. The pair is very sensitive to the BREXIT deal developments and the FED's Rate Hike decision this week. In this context, certain volatility is expected in this pair where USD is likely to dominate GBP further in the coming days.

Recently UK Prime Minister Theresa May is looking forward for 30 more days to save the BREXIT deal as she thinks it is the only way to avoid chaotic split from the European Union. May's talks with the EU is expected to continue in January. The deadline for the actual leave from the EU is March 2019. So, a certain decision is going to be taken before that will lead to a long-term decisive momentum for GBP in future. Recently UK Rightmove HPI report was published with a slight increase to -1.5% from the previous value of -1.7% which helped the currency to gain certain momentum but how much time it can sustain it is still uncertain. Tomorrow CPI report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 2.3% from the previous value of 2.4%, PPI Input is expected to decrease to -2.8% from the previous value of 0.8%, RPI is expected to slightly decrease to 3.2% from the previous value of 3.3%, and Core CPI is expected to decrease as well to 1.8% from the previous value of 1.9%.

On the other hand, this week US Federal Funds Rate report is going to be published which is expected to increase to 2.50% from the previous value of 2.25%. The FED is still determined to raise the official funds rate this week that is priced in by the markets. On the other hand, President Trump is against too fast pace of monetary tightenening as he thinks it could trigger recession in the coming years. The FED recently declared that a cyclle of rate hikes can be suspended in 2019, but it will fulfill its target. Today US Building Permits report is going to be published with increase to 1.27M from the previous figure of 1.26M and Housing Starts is expected to be unchanged at 1.23M.

Meantime, GBP is expected to struggle further against USD amid weak expectations for the upcoming economic reports. USD has a better chance for gaining strength because of the rate hike this week.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently residing inside the strong bearish daily candle formed on Friday as well as at the edge of 1.2600 area. The price is still quite indecisive but being below 1.2700 area along with the dynamic level of 20 EMA as resistance, it is expected to push the price lower towards 1.2500 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.30 area with a daily close, the bearish bias is expected to continue.

SUPPORT: 1.2500, 1.2600

RESISTANCE: 1.2700, 1.2800-50

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE but CORRECTIVE



Fundamental Analysis of EUR/JPY for December 18, 2018
2018-12-18

EUR/JPY has been corrective itself inside the range between 127.50 to 130.00 area for a few weeks now which is expected to lead to certain bearish pressure in the coming days. Despite downbeat GDP data from Japan, JPY has recently managed to gain certain momentum over EUR which indicates weakness of EUR.

Earlier EUR has been hurt by Italy's Budget Deficit issue. Recently France has also reviewed to have 3.4% deficit in 2019 which exceeds the limit of 3.0% of European Union's level of deficit. The latest economic reports from the eurozone also revealed tepid readings, leading the currency to lose momentum against JPY. Today German Ifo Business Climate report is going to be published which is expected to have a slight decrease to 101.8 from the previous figure of 102.0. Moreover, the eurozone's economy is showing lackluster performance due to uncertainty about the BREXIT deal.

On the other hand, ahead of BoJ policy meeting this week, JPY is likely to assert its strength. JPY can also find support if the reports are better than expected. Recently Japan's government revised downward its forecast for economic growth and consumer inflation for the current and next fiscal year as weakening export demand and natural disasters weighed down on the economy. Japan's economy is expected to grow to 0.9% in Fiscal year of 2018 which was expected to be at 1.5% earlier. Ahead of BOJ Policy Rate report to be published with an unchanged value of -0.10% and All Industry Activity to increase to 2.0% from the previous negative value of -0.9%. Tomorrow Japan's Trade Balance report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to -0.31T from the previous value of -0.30T.

Meantime, JPY has been quite mixed amid the economic reports whereas EUR is losing ground. Until the eurozone comes up with better than expected results, JPY is expected to hold the upper hand over EUR in the coming days.

Now let us look at the technical view. The price was pushed below off the Kumo Cloud recently which lead to impulsive and consistent bearish pressure, leading the price towards 127.50 support area. The dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line is currently above the price which is expected to act as dynamic resistance for further bearish momentum in the future. A daily close below 127.50 is expected to lead the price impulsively lower towards 125.50 in the coming days. As the price remains below 130.00 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue in the future.

SUPPORT: 125.50, 127.50

RESISTANCE: 128.50, 130.00

BIAS: BEARISH

MOMENTUM: VOLATILE and CORRECTIVE


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