USD/CHF Approaching Support, Prepare For Bounce
2019-01-28
The USD/CHF pair is approaching its support at 0.9918 (100% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 0.9953 (50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its support at 4.3% where a corresponding bounce could occur.
USD/CHF is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.
Buy above 0.9918. Stop loss at 0.9892. Take profit at 0.9953.
USD/JPY Approaching Support, Prepare For Bounce
2019-01-28
The USD/JPY pair is approaching its support at 109.16 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 109.66 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its support at 7.6% where a corresponding bounce could occur.
USD/JPY is approaching its support where we expect to see a bounce.
Buy above 109.16. Stop loss at 108.84. Take profit at 109.66.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for January 28, 2019
2019-01-28
EUR/JPY bottomed at 123.75 and then started rallying. The break above minor resistance at 124.65 told us, that wave ii had completed and wave iii higher to 132.12 now is in motion.
Short-term, we could see minor wave ii dip slightly lower to 124.65, but it should just be a matter of time before the next impulsive rally pushes EUR/JPY higher towards 127.10 and 128.29 on the way higher towards 132.12.
R3: 126.93
R2: 125.95
R1: 124.97
Pivot: 124.65
S1: 124.16
S2: 123.75
S3: 123.37
Trading recommendation:
We bought EUR at 124.65 and we have placed our stop at 123.70.
Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for January 28, 2019
2019-01-28
GBP/JPY continues to rally as expected. It respects the uptrend from 130.70 nicely and the next upside target to look for is seen at 146.10 as wave iii extends to the 161.8% extension target of wave i at 151.90.
Support is now seen at 143.40 with key support at 142.69.
R3: 146.10
R2: 145.30
R1: 144.84
Pivot: 144.47
S1: 144.08
S2: 143.79
S3: 143.40
Trading recommendation:
We are long GBP from 140.90 and we will keep our stop at 142.50 for now.
Fundamental Analysis of EUR/USD for January 28, 2019
2019-01-28
EUR/USD has been extremely volatile recently, trading inside the corrective range between 1.1200 to 1.1500 area. Ahead of the FOMC Statement, a policy update, and NFP report this week, USD is expected to have increased volatility against EURO throughout the week.
The Federal Reserve is not expected to raise its official funds rate which is currently sitting at 2.50%. Though the US Fed is expected to lift interest rates twice this year, the firts rate hike is likely to be delayed to 2nd quarter of the year. Investors are going to keep close eye to Jerome Powell's speech at the press conference on Wednesday for any hint that the central bank can provide while being closer to ending its balance sheet. The US Labor Department is going to publish NFP reports on Friday this week. Though the expectations are downbeat, any positive change can lead to certain gains on the USD side. Tomorrow US CB Consumer Confidence report is due which is expected to decrease to 125.0 from the previous figure of 128.1.
On the EUR side, ahead of ECB President Draghi's speech today, EUR managed to gain momentum over USD. The eurozone's economic growth signals a slowdown more than expected. After the ECB policy meeting, Presdent Draghi warned of further weakness in the eurozone in the short term. According to ECB's quarterly survey, a key element of Thursday's policy update is downgraded GDP growth for 2019 to 1.5% which was expected to be at 1.8% in the previous forecast. The Inflation is also dipping to 1.5% which was projected at 1.7% earlier. The ECB has been missing the inflation target since 2013 but consistency in this case is getting worse for the economy in the long run. If today's Draghi's speech drops any positive hint for market participants, this will be certainly bullish for EUR. Otherwise, EUR is expected to lose further momentum versus USD.
Meanwhile, ongoing EUR gains are likely to be short-lived and USD may regain momentum after certain corrections with better sustainability in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price recently engulfed the impulsive bearish pressure with a daily close. Currently the price is moving higher. The price is heading for 1.1450-1.1500 resistance area before pushing lower again with a target towards 1.1200-1.1300 support area in the coming days. As the price remains below 1.1500 area, the bearish bias is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 1.1200-50, 1.1300
RESISTANCE: 1.1450, 1.1500
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Fundamental Analysis of USD/JPY for January 28, 2019
2019-01-28
USD/JPY is currently trading in the range between 108.50 and 110.50. Ahead of NFP, the Fed's policy meeting, and FOMC Statement this week, the pair is set to trade with extreme volatility for the whole week.
USD is currently under the spotlight because of the longest ever government shutdown in the US which came to an end and crucial events like the Fed's policy meeting and NFP this week. Accroding to a recent survey, the tax cut of 1.5 trillion USD did not have any major impact on the businesses. Nevertheless, the White House believes this measure would boost business spending and job growth in the future. Moreover, the Federal Reserve is not expected to increase its interest rate which is currently held at 2.50%. Though the central bank is expected to increase interest rates only twice this year, the first rate hike could be delayed until Q2 of the year. Investors are going to keep close eye to Jerome Powell's speech on the monetary policy update on Wednesday for any hint that the central bank can provide while being closer to ending its balance sheet. The US Labor Department is going to publish NFP reports on Friday this week. Though the expectations are downbeat, any positive change can lead to certain gains on the USD side. Tomorrow US CB Consumer Confidence report is going to be published which is expected to decrease to 125.0 from the previous figure of 128.1.
On the other hand, today in Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, the Bank of Japan policymakers disagreed over the level of bond yields. The US-China Trade War has already affected JPY. A positive outcome of the Trade War is expected to help Japan to regain momentum. Otherwise, the trade war will leave a fallout in Japan's economy. The BoJ members present at the Meeting stated some factors to look at, including reaching the 2% inflation target strain on Japan's economy amid a slowdown in the global economy. Moreover, SPPI report was published with a decrease to 1.1% which was expected to be unchanged at 1.2%. Though Japan's economy has been growing quite rapidly, the current situation is acting as a barrier to further growth in the process.
Meanwhile, JPY gains are expected to halt its advance against USD. Any positive economic data from the US may lead to further gain on the USD side in the coming days.
Now let us look at the technical view. The price is currently trading in the middle of the price range between 108.50 to 110.50, from where certain bearish pressure towards 108.50 is expected before the bulls push the price higher towards 110.50. A break above it will signal further bullish momentum in the pair with a target towards 112.00 area in the future. As the price remains above 108.50 area, the bullish pressure is expected to continue.
SUPPORT: 107.50, 108.00-50
RESISTANCE: 110.50, 112.00
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
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