NZD/USD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For Reversal
2019-02-14
NZD/USD is approaching its resistance at 0.6870 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 0.6793 (horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its resistance at 95% where a corresponding reversal is anticipated.
NZD/USD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.
Sell below 0.6870. Stop loss at 0.6906. Take profit at 0.6793.
AUD/USD Approaching Resistance, Prepare For Reversal
2019-02-14
AUD/USD is approaching its resistance at 0.7149 (61.8% Fibonacci extension, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance) where it is expected to reverse down to its support at 0.7085 (horizontal swing low support).
Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is nearing its resistance at 95% where a corresponding reversal is anticipated.
AUD/USD is approaching its resistance where we expect to see a reversal.
Sell below 0.7149. Stop loss at 0.7180. Take profit at 0.7085.
Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for February 14, 2019
2019-02-14
EUR/JPY dipped to just below the ideal support at 125.07 (the low came in at 124.83). Renewed upside pressure is now expected for a break above 125.54, that yields a continuation higher towards 125.95 and 129..48 on the way towards the extension target at 133.54.
Support at 124.83 should protect the downside for the rally above 125.54.
R3: 127.09
R2: 126.59
R1: 125.95
Pivot: 125.53
S1: 124.83
S2: 124.45
S3: 124.18
Trading recommendation:
We are long EUR from 124.65 with our stop placed at 124.15
Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for February 14, 2019
2019-02-14
GBP/JPY dipped slightly below the ideal support at 142.63 (the low was seen at 142.44). Renewed upside pressure is is now expected for a break above resistance at 143.34 that will yield a continuation higher to 144.18 and 144.84 on the way towards the extension target at 151.50.
Support is now seen at 142.44 that should be able to protect the downside for the break above 143.34.
R3: 144.84
R2: 144.18
R1: 143.34
Pivot: 142.44
S1: 142.08
S2: 141.71
S3: 141.12
Trading recommendation:
We are long GBP from 146.65 with our stop placed at 141.65.
Fundamental Analysis of AUD/USD for February 14, 2019
2019-02-14
AUD/USD has been quite corrective and volatile, trading below 0.7200 area with a daily close. AUD has been quite positive amid the recently published economic reports which led to certain bullish momentum. However, the question is still open how reliable and sustainable it would be in the coming days.
China is Australia's largest trading partner with over 30% of the Australian exports going to China. Trade tensions have fueled an economic slowdown in Australia. As a result, China's GDP came in at 6.4% in Q4 2018 which is the weakest quarterly GDP growth in the latest 10 years. Recently AUD climbed higher in light of strong export data amid China's official trade balance figures while MI Inflation Expectation also increased to 3.7% from the previous value of 3.5%. Moreover, recently Westpac Consumer Sentiment showed significant growth to 4.3% from the previous value of -4.7%.
On the other hand, recently US CPI report was published with a slight increase to 0.0% from the previous value of -0.1% but it failed to meet the expectation for a 0.1% gain. The Core CPI report was published unchanged at 0.2% as expected but that did not quite help the currency to sustain the impulsive momentum it had over AUD. Today US Core Retail Sales is expected to decrease to 0.0% from the previous value of 0.2%, PPI is expected to increase to 0.1% from the previous value of -0.2%, Retail Sales are expected to decrease to 0.1% from the previous value of 0.2% and Core PPI is expected to increase to 0.2% from the previous value of -0.1%.
Meanwhile, the US-China trade talks are pushing ahead as the deadline is approaching. If both sides do not settle a trade a deal by March 1, US tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China are scheduled to rise 25% from 10% which will eventually increase the inflationtary pressure and costs in the sectors of consumer electronics and agriculture. If the upcoming meetings do not contribute to the positive outcome of the trade talks, it is certainly bearish for AUD.
Now let us look at the technical view. The pair is currently trading higher above 0.71 area. Moreover, the price is expected to jump to 0.7200 and higher as the price remains above 0.70 area with a daily close and makes higher highs.
SUPPORT: 0.7000-50, 0.7100
RESISTANCE: 0.7200-50, 0.7350
BIAS: BEARISH
MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 14/02/2019
2019-02-14
Technical analysis of EUR/USD for 14/02/2019
The correction was a short-lived bounce and new low was made already
Technical market overview:
The EUR/USD pair has bounced from the support at the level of 1.1258 and then tested the local technical resistnace at the level of 1.1341. Then the market reversed quickly as the bounce was very short-lived and the bears have managed to break throught he support at the level of 1.1258 and made a new low on their way down at the level of 1.1249. After the new low was made, the price bounced again due to the Pin Bar candlestick pattern with a long down wick, but the bounce is still shallow and so far it was capped around the local resistnace at the level of 1.1284. Due to the weak and negative momentum the outlook remains bearish.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.1528
WR2 - 1.1495
WR1 - 1.1390
Weekly Pivot - 1.1351
WS1 - 1.1247
WS2 - 1.1212
WS3 - 1.1101
Trading recommendations:
All sell orders from yesterday has hit the take profit level, so congrats to all traders swho opened them and ride the trend until the end. Currently, still only the sell orders should be opened and the first level to open them is seen at 1.1284 with a target located at the level of 1.1239.
Technical analysis for Gold for February 14, 2019
2019-02-14
Gold price tried to break above resistance at $1,317 yesterday but got rejected. This was a bearish sign and that is why Gold price is back below $1,310. Price however still holds above support of $1,300.
Yellow rectangle -major short-term support
Black rectangle - important short-term resistance
Gold price remains inside the medium-term bullish channel. As long as price is above $1,275-80 trend remains bullish. However we have noted a few days back that after reaching our $1,320 Gold price should see a pullback at least towards $1,300. The pullback was fast towards $1,302 and I do not think it is over. As I said yesterday, I prefer to be neutral or bearish as long as we trade below $1,317. A new minor low below $1,302 is the minimum expectation at current stage.
Technical analysis of GBP/USD for 14/02/2019
2019-02-14
Technical market overview:
The GBP/USD pair has made a Pin Bar candlestick that has a very big spread and looks really impresive (and somewhat scary) at the H4 time frame chart. This candle has made the high at the level of 1.2957 which was above the technical resistance zone of 1.2920 - 1.2928, but the candle has closed at the level of 1.2893 anyway. So the breakout was a false one and now the price is still testing the lower levels of the price range, very close tot he techncial support at the level of 1.2832. The market conditions remains bearish and the momentum is weak and negative. Lower prices are expected again soon.
Weekly Pivot Points:
WR3 - 1.3314
WR2 - 1.3207
WR1 - 1.3066
Weekly Pivot - 1.2955
WS1 - 1.2817
WS2 - 1.2712
WS3 - 1.2570
Trading recommendations:
All sell orders from yesterday has hit the projected take profit level at 1.2860. Currently, there is no good trading setup for shorts so it is better to stand aside for a while and eveluate the situation. Please notice that currently, this is not the best level to open long-term sell orders as the corrective bounce might be still developing.
Technical analysis for EUR/USD for February 14, 2019
2019-02-14
EUR/USD made a sharp reversal lower yesterday to new lows at 1.1250. Despite the new low, RSI did not confirm it providing another bullish divergence. I continue to expect price to move towards our short-term bounce targets.
Black rectangles - bounce targets
Red line - major trend line resistance
Green line - trend line support
EUR/USD made a new lower low yesterday but the glaring bullish divergence deter me from turning full bearish at current levels. I prefer to be neutral and wait for a bounce towards 1.1350-1.14 area closer to the red trend line resistance. Although medium-term trend remains bearish, I expect a short-term bounce for a better short-position entry with a better risk/reward ratio.
