Analyst Articles – Forex News 24

Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Earnings Eyed as S&P 500 Flashes Warning
Bitcoin (BTC), Ripple (XRP) & Ether (ETH) Price Levels to Watch
Positive Bias on Heightened Political Woes
Gold Prices Inch Closer to Confirming Top, US Bank Earnings Eyed
Asian Stocks Broadly Higher As China Hopes Endure, Focus on GDP
Swedish Krona, Norwegian Krone Eyeing Key Global Growth Data
Will Risk Trends Carry Dow to Record and Restore Yen Crosses?

Goldman Sachs, Citigroup Earnings Eyed as S&P 500 Flashes Warning

Posted: 15 Apr 2019 03:10 AM PDT

TALKING POINTS – GOLDMAN SACHS, CITIGROUP, US DOLLAR, YEN, S&P 500

Currency markets shrug at APAC stocks' optimism before key event risk
Q1 earnings reports from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup in the spotlight
S&P 500 technical positioning continues to warn of looming downturn

Currency markets started the trading week in a muted fashion despite a positive tone on Asia Pacific bourses. Equities seem to be picking up a positive lead from Wall Street while the G10 FX space is looking ahead four days loaded with big-splash event risk before most exchanges shutter for Good Friday.

The Canadian Dollar narrowly underperformed, seemingly reflecting unease about a provincial election in Alberta. The Australian Dollar also drifted lower in a move that appeared to be corrective after the currency gained ground against all its top counterparts on Friday.

US BANKS BACK IN FOCUS ON GOLDMAN SACHS, CITIGROUP EARNINGS

From here, first-quarter earnings reports from Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are in focus. Traders will look to the releases – the headline metrics and the accompanying guidance – to inform global growth bets amid concerns about a broad-based downshift in the business cycle.

Upbeat results may echo Friday's response to rosy figures from JPMorgan, sinking the anti-risk US Dollar and Yen while boosting sentiment-driven commodity bloc currencies. Outcomes closer to the disappointing release from Wells Fargo might paint JPM as an outlier and trigger the opposite response however.

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CHART OF THE DAY – S&P 500 CHART SETUP STILL WARNS OF DOWNTURN AHEAD

The S&P 500 rose to a six-month high last week but technical positoning continues to warn of topping. Prices have traced out a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern reinfirced with acute negative RSI divergence, pointing ot ebbing upside momentum that might precede a downturn.

If the setup is confirmed on a daily close below the wedge floor (now at 2855) is likely to signal a broader risk-off shift in global capital markets. That would very likely set the stage for the anti-risk USD and JPY to score substantial gains against their major currency counterparts.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

2019-04-15 06:30:00

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Bitcoin (BTC), Ripple (XRP) & Ether (ETH) Price Levels to Watch

Posted: 15 Apr 2019 02:34 AM PDT

Bitcoin, Ripple and Ether Price, Charts and Analysis:

Bitcoin turnover slows down as traders look for next leg of the move higher.
Ripple range trades, Ether's uptrend remains in place.

IG Client Sentiment Datashows how retail are positioned in a variety of cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin (BTC) trade data shows 80.8% of traders are net-long.

Ripple(XRP) trade data shows 97.8% of traders are net-long.

Ether (ETH) trade data shows 91.6% of traders are net-long.

Top Five Cryptocurrencies by Market Capitalization – April 15, 2019

Bitcoin (BTC) Needs to Break Above $5,650 to Trigger Next Leg Higher

Turnover in the largest cryptocurrency has turned lower in the last few sessions, seemingly keeping prices in check for now. The recent five-month high around $5,460 needs to be re-tested before $5,650 comes into focus. A break and close above here should open the way to $6,110 ahead of a cluster of previous prints around the $6,500-$6,800 area. Support at $4,796 remains.

A Guide to Day Trading Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin (BTC) Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – April 15, 2019)

Ripple (XRP) Stuck in a Range

The third-largest cryptocurrency has given back most of April's gains and looks stuck in a range going abck to late-December 2018. The recent peak around $0.38 acts as first resistance followed by the December 24 high at $0.45 which will need a fundamental driver to be broken above. To the downside, support around $0.28 needs to be respected and should hold in the short-term before $0.25 level comes into play. Ripple should continue to range trade for now.

Ripple (XRP) Daily Price Chart (August 2018 – April 15, 2019)

Ether (ETH) Supportive Uptrend Needs to Hold

Ether continues to consolidate its recent trend higher, making a series of new higher lows from Mid-December. While this supportive trend continues to suggest higher prices in the short- to medium-term, ETH needs to stay above $160 other a fall back to the $142 area may be seen. To the upside, a break of the recent $187.8 high would open a potential move to $222 ahead of $252.

Ether (ETH) Daily Price Chart (September 2018 – April 15, 2019)

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What is your view on the cryptocurrency market – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

2019-04-15 09:25:00

Positive Bias on Heightened Political Woes

Posted: 15 Apr 2019 01:17 AM PDT

Crude Oil Price Chart and Analysis:

Crude oil chart continues to flash positive signals.
Libyan oil production at risk as violent clashes continue.

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Crude oil prices continue to trade at or near multi-month highs as clashes in Libya continue, adding to concerns that oil production from the OPEC member may be cut back sharply. The ongoing assault on the capital Libya has yet to weigh on current oil production of round 1.1 million barrels per day but this could change quickly, impacting the price of crude.

Sanctions against Venezuela continue to bite with the country reporting a sharp slowdown in production. According to the IEA the country's production was down 600,000 barrels a day compared to a year ago, while OPEC reported that Venezuela's monthly production fell by around 500,000 barrels to 960,000 barrels last month.

Crude is also being propped up by thoughts that the economic slowdown in China is not as bad as first feared with traders now waiting for a slew of economic data on Wednesday, including Chinese Q1 GDP. Data last week showed new Yuan loans rising sharply in March to 1690 billion from 885.8 billion, while the trade balanced soared to CNY 221.3 billion from 34.46 billion in February.

DailyFX analyst Daniel Dubrovsky will be covering Chinese GDP Data live on April 17 from 2:45am.

The current oil chart remains positive with prices seemingly supported by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $70.57/bbl. and the 200-day moving average further down at $68.50/bbl. The 20-day moving average rose though the longer-dated ma at the start of April and this has added another positive sign on the current chart. The market has moved out of extreme oversold territory and is sitting on the recent bullish trend line.

How to Trade Oil: Crude Oil Trading Strategies & Tips.

Crude Oil Daily Price Chart (June 2018 – April 15, 2019)

What is your view on crude oil – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1.

2019-04-15 08:00:00

Gold Prices Inch Closer to Confirming Top, US Bank Earnings Eyed

Posted: 15 Apr 2019 12:06 AM PDT

GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:

Gold prices inch closer to confirming Head and Shoulders topping pattern
Crude oil prices break with risk trends, decline as Chevron buys Anadarko
Goldman Sachs and Citigroup earnings, EIA drilling data in focus ahead

Gold prices marked time Friday, tied down as Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar diverged again. Rates rose while the Greenback fell as JPMorgan reported first-quarter results that topped analysts' forecasts, boosting risk appetite.

That sent yields higher, sapping the appeal of non-interest-bearing assets like the yellow metal. The risk-on mood translated into diminished haven demand for the global reserve currency however, making anti-fiat alternatives appear attractive by comparison.

Crude oil prices initially rallied alongside stocks after JPMorgan earnings data crossed the wires but soon changed course, retreating as markets reacted to news that Chevron Corp. has agreed to buy Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Markets seemed to see the move as likely to boost global supply.

US BANK EARNINGS IN FOCUS FOR COMMODITY MARKETS

Another round of first-quarter earnings reports from top US banks including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup is in now focus. Markets are likely to see the outcomes as global growth barometers. Upbeat results may ease slowdown fears, echoing Friday's price action, whereas disappointments may stoke risk aversion.

The EIA Drilling Productivity report is also due to cross the wires. It seems likely to show that US output continues to swell, suggesting that on-coming capacity might overwhelm OPEC-led efforts to drain global inventories. That might weigh on oil prices.

See the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to learn what will drive prices in the second quarter!

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Gold prices are edging toward neckline support at 1281.36. A daily close below this would confirm the formation of a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, hinting that major top is in place. The first layer of subsequent support is in the 1260.80-63.76 zone, but the H&S setup implies a larger decline toward the $1200/oz figure. Alternatively, break above resistance in the 1303.70-09.12 area would neutralize near-term downward pressure and put the 1323.40-26.30 region into focus.

CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Crude oil prices continue to hover below support-turned-resistance in the 63.59-64.88 area. A break higher brings prices directly into the 66.09-67.03infection zone. Beyond that, the next upside barrier is at the $70/bbl figure. Alternatively, a turn lower that results in a close below 60.39 would break the uptrend from late December and set the stage to challenge the 57.24-88 region.

COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

2019-04-15 06:30:00

Asian Stocks Broadly Higher As China Hopes Endure, Focus on GDP

Posted: 14 Apr 2019 11:27 PM PDT

Asian Stocks Talking Points:

Stocks were broadly higher across the region
The Japanese Yen slipped as risk appetite held firm
Canada's Dollar was weakened by the prospect of a tight provincial election in Alberta

Find out what retail foreign exchange investors make of your favorite currency's chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page

Asia Pacific stock markets were mostly higher as Monday's action wound down, with last week's Chinese economic data continuing to lend support.

Customs figures on Friday showed a strong rise in exports for March, with a 14.2% annualized rise trouncing the expected 7.3% gain. However, imports remain subdued and question marks still glower over China's internal demand levels. Hopes for a trade settlement between Washington and Beijing also stoked sentiment. There was no sign of solid progress, but reports have suggested that the US will water down demands that China curb certain industrial subsidies- long a bone of contention.

Market focus will now move to Wednesday when official Gross Domestic Product data out of China will be released.

The Nikkei 225 added 1.5%, with the Shanghai Composite up 1.2%. The Hang Seng gained 0.6% with only Australia's ASX 200 unable to remain up. It was down by 0.1% as its close loomed.

Turning to foreign exchange, improved risk appetite saw the Japanese Yen unwanted and close to its weakest levels for 2019 against the US Dollar. The Canadian Dollar was also on the defensive as investors eyed what is likely to be a close provincial election in Alberta- Canada's oil-production heartland.

USD/CAD remains within the gradual uptrend which has marked 2019 but for all the Canadian Dollar's Monday weakness, the pair is still testing the base of that channel. A fall through it could well see the greenback slip further.

Oil prices headed lower but worries about supply ahead kept losses contained. Worries about Libyan supply in the face of mounting unrest in that country added to prognoses that OPEC may keep cutting too.

Gold prices slipped back a little as risk appetite kept focus on better-yielding possibilities.

Monday's remaining economic data schedule is a little spartan with only Canadian existing-home sales and the US Empire manufacturing survey likely to whet investor appetite.

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— Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research

Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch!

2019-04-15 05:28:00

Swedish Krona, Norwegian Krone Eyeing Key Global Growth Data

Posted: 14 Apr 2019 08:55 PM PDT

NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK

Swedish Krona, Norwegian Krone at risk from higher-than-usual volatility
Growth-sensitive event risk out of Europe, China, US to impact NOK, SEK
Nordic data docket: Sweden unemployment rate and Norway trade balance

See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy!

The first week of April had a hefty data docket for the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone. Traders were eyeing what were potentially global market-moving event risk. The ECB announced its rate decision, the FOMC released the March meeting minutes and an extension to the Brexit deadline was granted. Looking ahead, NOK and SEK may yet have another potentially tumultuous week driven primarily by external-event risk.

EUROPEAN-BASED EVENT RISK:

Germany

In Europe, several key growth indicators and announcements will be released from core Eurozone economies. Germany will be releasing its Zew Survey – a measure used to gauge sentiment – which will be particularly important to monitor given the region-wide slowdown. This follows a presentation by Germany's Finance Minister on the latest economic forecasts.

Italy

In Italy, the lower house will be debating on the government's most recent economic growth forecasts. Last week, the report showed a dismal outlook for the Italian economy in 2019 along with an update that the budget deficit will now be wider than previously agreed. The latter point in particular is a source of concern given the rising risk of another – and potentially more disruptive – Eurozone debt crisis.

France

In France, President Emmanuel Macron will be delivering a speech which will contain new policy measures as a response to the Yellow Vest protests. Since their start last year, it has severely impacted France's economic performance and undercut the President's ratings. The new policies may rattle the Euro and regional bond markets because of the potentially dangerous fiscal example it may set for other Eurozone governments.

This comes as the continent may now be re-entering another trade war with the US, putting further pressure on the already-battered economy. ECB President Mario Draghi reinforced the negative growth outlook at the last two meetings, signaling – along with the IMF – that the downside risks appear to be greater. Political risks are also rising as the European Parliamentary elections approach.

In Sweden, Riksbank Deputy Governor Martin Floden expressed concern on Friday over Germany's lackluster performance. This in large part has to do with Germany's status as the "steam engine of Europe". Why this is of concern to Swedish policymakers is because the Scandinavian country's economic performance is closely linked to European demand.

US-BASED EVENT RISK

A slew of key US economic indicators will be released which traders will be likely be monitoring closely because of the potential impact it may have on Fed monetary policy. Below are some key indicators to watch out for:

Tuesday – Industrial Production

Wednesday – Trade Balance, MBA Mortgage Applications, Fed Publishes Beige Book

Thursday – Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims

For a more extensive list, check out DailyFX's economic calendar!

Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi will also be visiting the White House from April 15-18. The two powers will discus trade agreements in an effort to avert another trade conflict on a third front as US economic performance wanes. On Friday, the Easter holiday will begin and may cause additional volatility due to thinner liquidity.

NORWAY, SWEDEN EVENT RISK

In the Nordics, the economic docket remains relatively light, which could mean NOK and SEK traders will likely be keeping their attention more on external risks. On Thursday, Sweden will be releasing its unemployment rate. While broadly the indicator has been falling, there was a spike in November from 5.50 to 6.00 percent. The Swedish Krona promptly fell and cooled rate hike bets from the Riksbank.

In Norway, the data docket is very light with trade balance data due later today. For this reason, NOK's price movement will be especially watchful for external event risk. The Krone last week was given a boost following better-than-expected CPI data. This was in large part due to the strong recovery in crude oil prices in 2019, although the Norwegian economy and CPI may be at risk if global and European demand wanes.

SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

2019-04-15 03:30:00

Will Risk Trends Carry Dow to Record and Restore Yen Crosses?

Posted: 14 Apr 2019 09:10 AM PDT

The warnings of a slower economy and greater fundamental risks to the financial system relayed to the market by the IMF and major central banks this past week seem to have been firmly overlooked. Are the favorable trends in risk appetite robust enough to restore a genuine phase of risk appetite or is this simply another bout of temporary respite from reality?

Australian Dollar Forecast: Australian Dollar Outlook Bearish on RBA. AUDUSD Eyes China Q1 GDP

The Australian Dollar outlook is bearish given the risks of pessimistic RBA minutes and US earnings which may offset AUD/USD gains on local jobs data and China first quarter GDP.

Crude Oil Forecast: Crude Could Crumble if Growth Concerns Catch Fire Again

The price of crude oil is up a whopping 38 percent year-to-date as fading fears over slowing global growth and OPEC supply cuts boosted the commodity higher. Although, recent gains could be jeopardized if sentiment sours again

British Pound Forecast: GBPUSD Rate Defends Bull Trend Ahead of UK CPI Amid Brexit Extension

GBP/USD may continue to defend the bull-trend from late-2018 should fresh data prints coming out of the UK put pressure on the BoE to further normalize monetary policy.

US Dollar Forecast: US Dollar Looks to Earnings, Economic Data to Shape Growth Bets

The US Dollar will be looking to first-quarter corporate earnings reports and a slew of macroeconomic data releases to shape global growth bets amid fears of slowdown.

Gold Forecast: Gold Price Forecast Quickly Turning Bearish as Risks Subside

Gold prices took a hit at the end of the week as global equity markets surged to the topside – in spite of a weaker US Dollar. Now that the US-China trade war talks may be nearing resolution and Brexit has been punted to October, Gold's appeal as a safe haven has been diminished.

Euro Forecast: Will Data Support EURUSD Break?

Markets are likely to stay quite next week as Easter nears, but data releases through the week may well decide if EURUSD can retain the 1.1300 level in the short-term.

Equities Forecast: S&P 500, DAX Outlook: EU/US Trade War Brewing

The S&P 500 hovers around 2900 with record highs in sight, while DAX dismisses early stages of a potential EU/US trade wars.

Weekly Trading Forecast: Will Risk Trends Carry Dow to Record and Restore Yen Crosses?

See what live coverage is scheduled to cover key event risk for the FX and capital markets on the DailyFX Webinar Calendar.

See how retail traders are positioning in the majors using the IG Client Sentiment readings on the sentiment page.

2019-04-14 16:00:00