Forex analysis review |
- BCO/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!
- AUD/USD approaching resistance, potential drop!
- USD/CHF approaching resistance, potential drop!
- Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on April 5
- April 4, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- April 4, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- GBP/USD. April 4. Results of the day. The British pound still tends to fall
- EUR/USD. April 4. Results of the day. For a long time forces in opposition to the dollar, the euro was not enough
- Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 4, 2019
- EURUSD: ECB Protocols and a weak report on Germany added pessimism to the market
- Bitcoin analysis for April 04, 2019
- Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 4, 2019
- GBP/USD analysis for April 04, 2019
- Analysis of Gold for April 04, 2019
- Will the Euro be able to take advantage of the positive that the US and China are creating?
- The pound is waiting for a decline to a 30-year low
- Risk sentiment captured the foreign exchange market, the yen weakens on trading optimism
- GBP / USD plan for the US session on April 4. Buyers' optimism in the pound gradually decreases
- EUR / USD: plan for the US session on April 4. ECB protocols are not surprised. The market is completely calm
- Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 04, 2019
- Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 04, 2019
- Gold price will rise in the case of "hard" Brexit
- Euro seems permanently stuck near $ 1.12, there is nowhere to wait for support
- GBP / USD: Brexit prospects are foggy, pound sterling awaits for a denouement
- EUR and GBP: the euro and pound will find it difficult to continue growth against the US dollar
| BCO/USD approaching resistance, potential drop! Posted: 04 Apr 2019 06:45 PM PDT BCOUSD is approaching our first resistance at 70.94 (horizontal pullback resistance, 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 68.48 (50% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal pullback support). Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
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| AUD/USD approaching resistance, potential drop! Posted: 04 Apr 2019 06:43 PM PDT AUDUSD is approaching our first resistance at 0.7145 (horizontal swing high resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 0.7111 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ). Stochastic is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
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| USD/CHF approaching resistance, potential drop! Posted: 04 Apr 2019 06:41 PM PDT USDCHF is approaching our first resistance at 1.0007 (horizontal swing high resistance, 50% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 0.9959 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ). Stochastic is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
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| Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on April 5 Posted: 04 Apr 2019 06:29 PM PDT Forecast for April 5: Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs: For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1327, 1.1307, 1.1282, 1.1259, 1.1227, 1.1210, 1.1180 and 1.1134. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the ascending structure of April 2. Short-term ascending movement is expected in the range of 1.1259 - 1.1282. The breakdown of the latter value will allow us to count on the movement to the level of 1.1307. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.1327. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1227 - 1.1210. Hence, there's a probability of a reversal to the top. The breakdown of the level of 1.1210 will have to develop the downward structure. In this case, the first potential target is 1.1180. The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of April 2. Trading recommendations: Buy 1.1260 Take profit: 1.1280 Buy 1.1284 Take profit: 1.1305 Sell: 1.1227 Take profit: 1.1211 Sell: 1.1208 Take profit: 1.1189 For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3373, 1.3314, 1.3271, 1.3210, 1.3153, 1.3103, 1.3051 and 1.2984. Here, the price is close to the abolition of the ascending structure of March 29, for which a breakdown of the level of 1.3050 is necessary. In this case, the first potential target is 1.2984. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3153. Here, the first target is 1.3210. The breakdown of which, in turn, will start the development of the upward cycle on the H1 scale. In this case, the target is 1.3271. Meanwhile, in the range of 1.3271 - 1.3314, we expect a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3373. Upon reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom. The main trend is the upward structure of March 29, the stage of deep correction. Trading recommendations: Buy: 1.3153 Take profit: 1.3210 Buy: 1.3210 Take profit: 1.3270 Sell: 1.3050 Take profit: 1.2990 For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.0065, 1.0040, 1.0023, 0.9996, 0.9975, 0.9961 and 0.9938. Here, we expect a movement to the level of 1.0023. Meanwhile, in the range of 1.0023 - 1.0040, there is a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.0065. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom. Consolidated movement is possible in the range of 0.9975 - 0.9961. Breaking the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.9938. This level is a key support for the top. The main trend is the upward structure of March 27. Trading recommendations: Buy: 0.9998 Take profit: 1.0020 Buy : 1.0025 Take profit: 1.0038 Sell: 0.9975 Take profit: 0.9964 Sell: 0.9958 Take profit: 0.9942 For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 112.69, 112.26 , 112.05, 111.62, 111.42 and 111.14. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure of March 25. At the moment, we expect the movement to the level of 112.05. Meanwhile, in the range of 112.05 - 112.26, there is a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 112.69. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 111.62 - 111.42. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 111.14. This level is a key support for the upward structure. The main trend: the ascending structure of March 25. Trading recommendations: Buy: 111.72 Take profit: 112.05 Buy: 112.07 Take profit: 112.24 Sell: 111.62 Take profit: 111.44 Sell: 111.40 Take profit: 111.15 For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3450, 1.3429, 1.3401, 1.3376, 1.3329, 1.3300, 1.3257, 1.3229 and 1.3189. Here, the price forms the potential for the top of April 3 in the correction of the downward structure. Development of the upward movement is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.3376. In this case, the first goal is 1.3401, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 1.3401 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.3429. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 1.3450. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.3329 - 1.3300. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. In this case, the target is 1.3257. Meanwhile, in the range of 1.3257 - 1.3229, there is a short-term downward movement, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.3189. After reaching this level, we expect a rollback to the top. The main trend is the downward structure of March 28, the formation of the potential for the top of April 3. Trading recommendations: Buy: 1.3376 Take profit: 1.3400 Buy : 1.3406 Take profit: 1.3429 Sell: 1.3329 Take profit: 1.3303 Sell: 1.3228 Take profit: 1.3257 For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7202, 0.7183, 0.7153, 0.7131, 0.7106, 0.7092, 0.7074 and 0.7048. Here, we continue to monitor the formation of the ascending structure of April 2. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.7131. In this case, the goal is 0.7153, wherein consolidation is near this level. The breakdown of the level of 0.7155 will lead to the development of a pronounced movement. Here, the target is 0.7183. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 0.7202. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 0.7106 - 0.7092. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 0.7074. This level is a key support for the top. The main trend is the formation of initial conditions for the top of April 2. Trading recommendations: Buy: 0.7131 Take profit: 0.7150 Buy: 0.7155 Take profit: 0.7180 Sell : 0.7106 Take profit : 0.7093 Sell: 0.7090 Take profit: 0.7077 For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 126.75, 126.27, 125.93, 125.43, 125.01, 124.78 and 124.44. Here, we are following the development of the March 28 upward cycle. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 125.45. In this case, the goal is 125.93. Meanwhile, in the range of 125.93 - 126.27, there is a short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 126.75. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 125.01 - 124.78. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. In this case, the goal is 124.44. This level is a key support for the top. The main trend is the upward cycle of March 28. Trading recommendations: Buy: 125.45 Take profit: 125.90 Buy: 125.95 Take profit: 126.20 Sell: 125.00 Take profit: 124.80 Sell: 124.75 Take profit: 124.50 For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 149.76, 148.87, 148.20, 147.24, 146.61, 146.09, 145.66 and 144.93. Here, we are following the development of the ascending structure from March 29. At the moment, the price is in the correction. Continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 146.61. Here, the first target is 147.24. The breakdown of which, in turn, must be accompanied by a pronounced move to the top. In this case, the target is 148.20. Short-term upward movement is expected in the range of 148.20 - 148.87. Hence, the likelihood of the price going to a correction is also high. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 149.76, from which, we expect a rollback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 146.09 - 145.66. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 144.93. This level is a key support for the upward structure. The main trend is the upward structure of March 29, the stage of correction. Trading recommendations: Buy: 146.61 Take profit: 147.20 Buy: 147.30 Take profit: 148.20 Sell: 145.60 Take profit: 144.95 Sell: Take profit: The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| April 4, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 04 Apr 2019 09:30 AM PDT
On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570. The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420. Shortly after, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th. Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure. On March 18, a bullish breakout attempt was executed above 1.1327 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-zone). This enhanced further bullish movement towards 1.1450 demonstrating a false bullish breakout above the upper limit of the depicted movement channel. On the other hand, On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated around 1.1380 leading to the current bearish decline towards 1.1220 then 1.1220. Theoretically, the short term outlook for EURUSD pair remains bearish towards 1.1170 and 1.1120 as long as Bearish persistence below 1.1235 (Fibonacci 78.6%) is maintained on H4 chart. On the other hand, a bullish breakout above 1.1235 would confirm the depicted bullish Head & Shoulders pattern allowing another bullish pullback to occur towards 1.1280-1.1320 where a better SELL entry can be offered. Trade recommendations : Conservative traders should wait for a bullish breakout above 1.1235 for a valid BUY entry. TP levels to be located around 1.1280, 1.1320. SL to be located below 1.1200. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| April 4, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:48 AM PDT
On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380. This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14. Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again. A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair towards the up-trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11. Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair pursued the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high than the one achieved on February 27. Instead, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated below 1.3250. That's why, the short term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any immediate bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown. By the end of last week, the price levels of 1.3020-1.3000 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection. This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line are located. Bearish rejection was anticipated around these price levels (1.3160-1.3180). Further bearish decline is expected towards 1.2950-1.2920 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located. Trade Recommendations: Based on Yesterday's recommendations, Intraday traders who had SELL entries around the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) should have partial profit taking around 1.3070-1.3050. Remaining TP levels to be located around 1.3020, 1.2950 and 1.2920 while SL to be lowered to 1.3100 to secure remaining profits. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD. April 4. Results of the day. The British pound still tends to fall Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:18 AM PDT 4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 164p - 159p - 140p - 137p - 75p. Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 135p (143p). The British pound against the background of all the twists and turns with Brexit managed to rise to the upper limit of the Ichimoku cloud, but today it has fallen in price, which is more logical from a fundamental point of view. We remind you that at the moment the British Parliament has not decided on the option of leaving the EU, which will satisfy the majority of deputies. With a grief in half, by a margin of one vote, the deputies adopted a bill that allows Brexit to be postponed to a later date. However, the EU does not want to postpone Brexit without guarantees of accepting the agreement reached with Theresa May. Thus, the whole procedure has once again reached an impasse, and even news on this topic has not been received today, which is rare. How this entire mess will end is still incomprehensible. Only one thing is clear – the pound will be inclined to fall until some decision is made on Brexit. How the pound has not yet gone to conquer new lows is unclear. From a technical point of view, the pair has now dropped to the critical line. In the case of overcoming this line, the trend for the pair will again change to descending. Then we will again expect a downward movement below 1.2950. Tomorrow, by the way, an important report of NonFarm Payrolls in the United States will be published, and if its value is low, then in the short term, the pound may again become more expensive. Otherwise, downward movement will follow, at least to 1.2975. Well, Theresa may can only re-negotiate with Juncker on transfers, and convince everyone that consensus is still possible in Parliament. Trading recommendations: The GBP/USD currency pair is being adjusted against the "golden cross". Thus, in the event of a price rebound from the critical line, the upward movement may resume. In this case, it is recommended to trade for an increase in small lots with the target at 1.3207. It is recommended to open sell orders if the bears manage to overcome the critical line with the target at 1.2975. In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release. Explanation of the illustration: Ichimoku indicator: Tenkan-sen - the red line. Kijun-sen - the blue line. Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line. Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line. Chinkou Span - green line. Bollinger Bands indicator: 3 yellow lines. MACD Indicator: A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:18 AM PDT 4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 48p - 37p - 46p - 32p - 55p. Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 44p (41p). The European currency paired with the US dollar on the penultimate trading day of the week once again rushed down. Once again, we observe a serious decline in volatility to a minimum. The euro was unable to develop the success achieved yesterday. It seems that traders have resumed the restrained sales of the EUR/USD pair. No important macroeconomic reports were published today either in the States or in the European Union. Thus, the obvious conclusion is that yesterday the pair has risen in price thanks to a whole set of macroeconomic reports in favor of the euro. Today, when the euro does not have fundamental support, the main movement has resumed. This means that in the near future, the pair can again start the test of the level of 1.1200, which this time can be successful, too little desire from traders to buy euros now. Also, from a technical point of view, the pair failed to reach even the lower border of the Ichimoku cloud during yesterday's growth, which once again indicates the weakness of the bulls. At the moment, the tool has already fixed below the critical line, which speaks in favor of resuming the downtrend. Thus, today or tomorrow, we can expect the pair to decline to the first support level of 1.1173 this week. If the pair confidently passes the level of 1.1200, then the way down will be open. As we can see, the strengthening of the euro requires serious fundamental support, which is now extremely rare. Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair has completed the upward correction and is now trying to resume the downward movement. Thus, short positions with targets at 1.1173 and 1.1131 in small lots are relevant again. Long positions are also recommended to be considered as small lots with targets at 1.1258 and 1.1295 if traders consolidate above the Kijun-Sen line again. In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release. Explanation of the illustration: Ichimoku indicator: Tenkan-sen - the red line. Kijun-sen - the blue line. Senkou Span A - light brown dotted line. Senkou Span B - light purple dotted line. Chinkou Span - green line. Bollinger Bands indicator: 3 yellow lines. MACD Indicator: A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Elliott wave analysis of GBP/JPY for April 4, 2019 Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:13 AM PDT
GBP/JPY is testing support at 145.90, which ideally will protect the downside for the next impulsive rally above 147.00 confirming a continuation higher to 148.50 and 151.50. Only an unexpected break below support at 144.92 will shift the bias towards the downside again for a decline closer to 143.79 and possible even closer to 141.00. R3: 147.50 R2: 147.00 R1: 146.29 Pivot: 145.67 S1: 145.39 S2: 144.90 S3: 144.62 Trading recommendation: We are long GBP from 146.51 with our stop placed at 144.80 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EURUSD: ECB Protocols and a weak report on Germany added pessimism to the market Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:06 AM PDT The euro once again began to gradually lose ground in pair with the US dollar after the release of the report, which showed a weakening of activity in the manufacturing sector of Germany. The minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank, which were published today in the morning, also made a number of negative on the market. According to the report of the Federal Bureau of Statistics, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany in February 2019 fell by 4.2% compared with January, while economists had expected their growth by 0.5%. The fall is directly related to the decline in demand from countries outside the eurozone. Compared to February of the previous year, orders in the manufacturing sector of Germany decreased by 8.4%. The Bureau noted that the data indicate more than serious problems in the manufacturing sector in Germany, and the lack of external demand will continue to have a negative impact on production. The recession in the eurozone economy will last much longer than expected. Such conclusions can be made in the study of the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank, which took place on March 6-7 of this year. They indicated that the ECB leaders had discussed more aggressive incentive measures, as some members of the ECB leadership expressed concerns about the impact on banks of sustainably low interest rates. However, it ended with the fact that the ECB leaders at any time can adjust their policies if necessary, and, apparently, such a need may appear in the coming months if economic indicators continue to decline. As for data on the American economy, they supported the US dollar. According to a report by the US Department of Labor, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week from March 24 to March 30 fell by 10,000 and amounted to 202,000. Economists expected the number of new applications to be at 218,000. Data for the week from March 17 to 23 were revised up to 212,000. As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, a breakthrough and consolidation below the middle of the side channel in the area of 1.1220 will keep pressure on risky assets, which may lead to an update of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1185. In the scenario of returning to the resistance level of 1.1220, the bulls will try to build the lower limit of the new upward channel, using the minimum of this month in the area of 1.1184. The British pound resumed its decline in pair with the US dollar. The data from the association of manufacturers and sellers of cars did not support the GBPUSD pair in the first half of the day, as they indicated a reduction in registrations. According to the report, the total number of registrations decreased by 3.4%, to 458,054, with the most registered registration of business class cars. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin analysis for April 04, 2019 Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:06 AM PDT BTC has been trading sideways at the price of $4. 994.The risk for the upside positions are increased.
According to the H1 time-frame, we found that there is the fake breakout of the resistance at the price of $5.070. In the background we found climatic action, which is sign of the very emotional buying, which may result with the counter reaction from the sellers. After we took huge profit on the upside, we are now neutral to bearish on the BTC. Key short-term support is set at $4.646. Trading recommendation: We got small short position on the BTC from $5.000 and with the target at $4.646. Protective stop is placed at 5.335. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for April 4, 2019 Posted: 04 Apr 2019 08:03 AM PDT
EUR/JPY has been trapped in a trading range since mid-January, where the cross traded near 125.00. We are still looking for a deeper correction closer to 123.65 and ideally down to 120.95 as long as key-resistance at 126.18 is able to cap the upside. Short-term a break below 124.45 would confirm more downside pressure towards 123.65 and below. Only an unexpected break above 126.18 will shift the bias back towards the upside for a rally to 127.50 and above. R3: 126.18 R2: 125.75 R1: 125.43 Pivot: 124.92 S1: 124.45 S2: 124.17 S3: 123.65 Trading recommendation: We are short EUR from 124.25 with our stop placed at 126.20 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD analysis for April 04, 2019 Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:55 AM PDT GBP/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.3080. We are still bearish and expecting more downside.
According to the H1 time-frame, we found that sellers took control from buyers and that momentum on the downside is strong. The ADX reading above the 30 is clear sign of the strength on the current downward movement. In the background we noticed the breakout of the 20-h balance and this is another indication of the GBP weakness. Key resistance is seen at the price of 1.3195 while the key supports and our downside targets are seen at 1.3015 and 1.2980. Trading recommendation: We are still holding our sell position from 1.3138 and we placed the stop lose on the breakeven. Now, we got risk free position. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3015 and 1.2980. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of Gold for April 04, 2019 Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:48 AM PDT Gold has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the key short-term support at the $1.281.00. Gold is in decision phase and at the key support.
The Gold reached our downward target at $1.281.00 from the previous analysis and it is at decision level. ADX reading is below 20 level and this is sign that the trend is weak, so you should be careful at this point. Only if you see clean breakout of the $1.280.83 and pick up in the momentum you should watch for more selling and potential testing of $1.258.00. Very probable scenario can be that price go sideways for few sessions in waiting for next big momentum. Buying is also risky at this stage due to no big signs of reversal yet. Trading recommendation: We closed our long our sell position on the Gold with a decent profit. We are neutral now but we are awaiting potential breakout of $1.280.83 to confirm further downward continuation and potential test of $1.258.00. To open sell position watch for breakout of $1.280.83. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Will the Euro be able to take advantage of the positive that the US and China are creating? Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:33 AM PDT The euro against the dollar remains under pressure due to the weakness of the macroeconomic indicators of the eurozone. In addition, quotes are influenced by the overall market sentiment regarding risk and the dynamics of the USD. Traders are now optimistic about the completion of a new round of trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. The positive mood of investors from Asia and the eurozone suggests that they believe in the speedy resolution of trade disputes between the United States and the Middle Kingdom. According to IMF representatives, an escalation of the conflict in the form of a rise from 10% to 25% in duties on Chinese goods from the United States would cause the global economy to slow down. In this case, America may lose about 0.3 - 0.6% of GDP, and 0.5-1.5% in China, experts say. "Progress has been marked on almost all issues, but we have not yet reached the final result; we hope that this week will bring us closer to him, "said by the economic adviser to the US president, Larry Kudlow, on Wednesday. Progress in the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing has already caused the world economy to show signs of recovery. At least, this is evident in the index of purchasing managers of China. The gradual recovery of global GDP is far from the best news for a greenback. At the same time, the Fed's unexpected rejection of plans to raise interest rates this year pushed stock prices upward, high-yield bonds and other risky assets. As a rule, improving global risk appetite is a negative point for the US currency. In order to take advantage of the potential weakness of the "American", the euro as its main competitor, needs positive numbers from macroeconomic statistics. So far, the EUR/USD bulls can only rely on weak data on the US labor market in March, which will be published tomorrow. This will allow quotes to return to the range of 1.125-1.15. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| The pound is waiting for a decline to a 30-year low Posted: 04 Apr 2019 07:07 AM PDT The latest events around Brexit made it clear that the potential of forming a Labor government is becoming increasingly high. Early elections, which will lead the opposition to power, may contribute to the fall of the pound to the lowest levels in the last 30 years. In this situation, the ability of the Bank of England to normalize monetary policy will come to naught. Sterling will again be under attack, which will provoke a new "bearish" bias. In the short term, the growth of sterling is quite possible if the inter-party cooperation leads to a "soft" exit of Britain from the EU. However, the long-term consequences of Labor leadership, as well as high taxes, nationalization of industries and increased in regulation, will complicate the policy of the Central Bank of England. The economic and emotional impact of such a policy probably negates all the achievements of the program to increase the expenses of the current government. Such a change of government would initially cause caution among high-ranking representatives of the Central Bank and as a result, it would push them to soften the policy. For the pound, this is an outright negative. If you do not take into account the policy, the prospects for tightening the policy in England look extremely weak. Therefore, the serious growth of the pound from current levels should not be expected. The dovish shift of world central banks, coupled with political uncertainty, should force the Bank of England to be more careful which will leave the pound on a short leash. Brexit In the meantime, the sterling reserves the status of one of the most volatile assets of the foreign exchange market. This all happens for the same reason given the uncertainty around Brexit. The pound rose after Theresa May's attempts to reach a compromise with opposition leader Jeremy Corbin regarding the withdrawal from the EU and after the adoption of the bill banning the implementation of the "tough" scenario. It came close to the resistance level of $1.3180 but then rolled back. It became known that the European Union no longer intends to give a delay to the United Kingdom's deadline on 12 April. According to the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, Britain should submit an alternative plan to Brexit in the coming days and ask for a long delay or leave the European Union without a deal. The high risk of indiscriminate Brexit on Wednesday was pointed out by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney. "The exit of Britain from the EU without an agreement will not happen intentionally and suddenly. There will be no transition period - it will be a sudden Brexit without an agreement," Mark Carney commented on the situation on Wednesday. A significant increased risk of disorderly Brexit at any time can provoke aggressive sales of the pound. The target for the GBP/USD pair is still at $1.28 in the long term. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Risk sentiment captured the foreign exchange market, the yen weakens on trading optimism Posted: 04 Apr 2019 06:12 AM PDT The yen is weakening as optimism regarding a trade deal between the US and China has raised its appetite for risk around the world, the pound is becoming more expensive after the British parliament approved a law for the transfer of Brexit. Participants in the trade talks in Beijing last week achieved "great success," and both sides are striving to overcome the remaining differences, according to the White House Economic Adviser, Larry Kudlow. For the first time, China has officially recognized the problems that the States have been discussing for many years such as the theft of intellectual property and the violent transfer of technology by American companies doing business in China. This news helps to strengthen the dollar against the yen. Sterling received support when Prime Minister Theresa May managed to convince the Lower House of the British Parliament to approve a law that allowed Brexit to be postponed. In general, the market reigns in a risky mood but it is worth remembering that the market has already won back the positive expectations that Washington and Beijing will soon reach an agreement, therefore the further movement of some currencies raises serious doubts, especially considering the fundamental factors. Economic data from the United States did not meet market expectations and it will hold back the growth of the dollar. Activity in the services sector in March broke the 19-month minimum, the number of jobs in the private sector grew less than expected. All of these support the Fed's decision to suspend an increase in interest rates this year. So far, traders have apparently decided to downplay the importance of some weak data from the US at least until the publication of the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, and focus on positive developments.  |
| GBP / USD plan for the US session on April 4. Buyers' optimism in the pound gradually decreases Posted: 04 Apr 2019 06:12 AM PDT To open long positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need: The pound is gradually falling amid the lack of positive news related to Brexit. At the moment, only the formation of a false breakdown in the region of the lower boundary of the side channel at 1.3122 will be a signal to buy the GBP/USD pair. However, the optimal scenario for long positions will be the test of 1.3072 minimum, where you can immediately buy for a rebound. The task of the bulls in the afternoon will be the return and consolidation above the resistance of 1.3188, which will lead the pair to the maximum near 1.3227 and 1.3265, where I recommend taking profits. To open short positions on the GBP / USD pair, you need: The bears kept the resistance at 1.3188, which led to a gradual decrease in the pound. While there is no news on Brexit, the pound will remain under pressure and a breakthrough of the lower boundary of the side channel in the area of 1.3122 will only increase pressure on it, which will return the pair to the minima of 1.3072 and 1.3030, where I recommend taking profits. In case of a growth scenario of the pound in the second half of the day, you can rely on short positions again from the resistance of 1.3188. Otherwise, you can sell directly to the rebound from 1.3227 and 1.3265. More in the video forecast for April 4 Indicator signals: Moving averages Trade is conducted in the area of 30- and 50-moving averages, which indicates the formation of a side channel. Bollinger bands Bears are trying to form a breakthrough of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.3144, which only increases the pressure on the pound. Description of indicators MA (moving average) 50 days - yellow MA (moving average) 30 days - green MACD: fast EMA 12, slow EMA 26, SMA 9 Bollinger Bands 20 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 04 Apr 2019 05:58 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD you need: Statements that the ECB could adjust its policies if necessary led to a decline in the euro in the morning. At the moment, only a breakthrough above the resistance of 1.1248 will allow to form a new upward wave with the update of the highs in the area of 1.1270 and 1.1294, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a further decline in the euro in the afternoon, it is best to consider new long positions if a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1218, which can be formed after data on the US labor market, or to rebound from the lower border of the side channel in the area of 1.1186. To open short positions on EURUSD you need: The bears have shown themselves in the area of resistance 1.1248 and again formed a downward wave in the euro. As long as trading will be conducted below this range, we can expect pressure to remain, which will lead to an update of the middle of the wide side channel of 1.1218, as well as its lower limit of 1.1186, where I recommend fixing the profits. When the growth scenario is above 1.1245 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions to rebound from the resistance of 1.1269 and 1.1294. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-medium moving, which indicates the lateral nature of the market. Bollinger bands Only a breakthrough of the upper border of the Bollinger Bands indicator around 1.1248 will strengthen the upward movement in euros. Description of indicators
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| Technical analysis of EUR/USD for April 04, 2019 Posted: 04 Apr 2019 04:41 AM PDT The EUR/USD pair continues to move downwards from the level of 1.1280. Yesterday, the pair dropped from the level of 1.1280 to the bottom around 1.1225. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.1280 followed by 1.1310, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.1179. According to the previous events, the EUR/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.1280 and 1.1180; for that we expect a range of 102 pips. If the EUR/USD pair fails to break through the resistance level of 1.1280, the market will decline further to 1.1179. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a positive area and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 1.1137 with a view to test the second support. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 1.1280 (the double top), then this scenario may become invalidated. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis of GBP/USD for April 04, 2019 Posted: 04 Apr 2019 04:33 AM PDT The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.3087. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.3087 to a top around 1.3201 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 1.3140. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3206 followed by 1.3268 , while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3087 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.3087 and 1.3268; so we expect a range of 181 pips in coming days. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.3206, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3268) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.3087 with the first target at 1.3206 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3268. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3268 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.3087, a further decline to 1.2976 can occur which would indicate a bearish market. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Gold price will rise in the case of "hard" Brexit Posted: 04 Apr 2019 03:37 AM PDT
According to experts, the current strengthening of the US currency and the activation of stock markets put pressure on the price of gold. The precious metal price is largely influenced by the unstable geopolitical situation with Brexit. Investors expect a further increase in the price of the yellow metal in the case of the implementation of the "hard" option of the UK's exit from the European Union. According to analysts, gold is in high demand during times of crisis, when investors want to keep their savings. An example of this is the situation in global stock markets at the end of last year when quotations began to decline, and the cost of precious metals showed growth. However, in January 2019, the opposite trend was recorded. The American Dow Jones index increased by 12%, and the German DAX – by 10%, while the price of gold rose by only 1%. As for silver, it fell by 1.8%. This development surprised many investors, experts say. Currently, the stock market shows a positive attitude caused by the repurchase of shares by a number of companies. It is noted that companies from the S & P 500 list sent $806 billion to buy their shares. This was facilitated by the tax reform of US President Donald Trump, which allowed corporations to obtain additional liquidity. As a result, the profit gained was not spent on economic development and joined the global stock market. From January to March 2019, American companies sent an additional $253 billion to repurchase their securities, experts say. Investors in precious metals should remember that the growth of the stock market will put significant pressure on the price of gold and silver, experts remind. However, in the case of "hard" Brexit, investors in the yellow metal can expect an increase in the value of gold. In this situation, the precious metal will receive support for continued growth, as market players will want to keep their capital. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Euro seems permanently stuck near $ 1.12, there is nowhere to wait for support Posted: 04 Apr 2019 03:34 AM PDT
The euro is stuck near the monthly low and probably will not be able to move to growth in the coming days amid signs of weakness of the German economy, which are overlap optimism about the US-China trade negotiations and a more "soft" Brexit. The euro will hang for a long time in the range of $1.12-1.16, especially considering the actions of the European Central Bank. Recall that in April, the single currency opened growth on the wave of signs of recovery in the region's economy and the news that trade negotiations between the two largest economies of the world seem to be moving forward. The euro began to decline after the data showed a reduction in the volume of industrial orders in Germany. In addition, the currency will not receive support from the ECB, which refused to tighten monetary policy. Taking into account all the negative factors in general, the euro still looks pretty good. Investors are advised to wait for the publication of the minutes of the March meeting of the ECB and to pay special attention to the details of the plan of the ECB on the issuance of new cheap loans to banks and to the debate about interest rates. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP / USD: Brexit prospects are foggy, pound sterling awaits for a denouement Posted: 04 Apr 2019 03:34 AM PDT On the eve of the House of Commons, a bill was approved by a margin of one vote aimed at avoiding the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union without an agreement and obliging London to ask Brussels for a postponement of Brexit. Now, the document will be submitted to the House of Lords. It is noteworthy that the head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker warned on Wednesday that April 12 is the deadline for the approval of the "divorce" agreement by the House of Commons. If this does not happen, then Brexit will no longer have a short delay. At the same time, the EC Chairman stressed that if the deal is approved by the British parliamentarians then Brussels will be able to postpone Day X to 22 May. Meanwhile, the impasse in which the "divorce" process once again came out has forced the British Prime Minister Teresa May to sit at the negotiating table with the leader of the opposition Labor Party, Jeremy Corbin. It is assumed that by the end of the week they can work out some general strategy regarding the country's withdrawal from the EU. Thus, different options for further actions are at the disposal of Theresa May today. First, it is "extraordinary", such as early parliamentary elections, which will only intensify the split in the British establishment. However, this will not change anything in essence or a second referendum. Secondly, the "workers" that is to have a negotiation with Jeremy Corbin and finally push his deal through the House of Commons next week. For the sake of being able to find a way out of the stalemate with Brexit, It is possible that London will decide to surprise everyone and take part in the elections to the European Parliament scheduled for May 23. Such a decision may give Foggy Albion a chance to get an additional postponement of the Brexit deadline or else completely remove from the agenda the question of leaving the country from the EU. In this case, the United Kingdom will have to nominate its candidates for MEPs until April 24. As it turned out recently, the British government laid such an opportunity in the budget where the sum of 829 thousand pounds was reserved last year for the state election commission. According to experts, a clear reflection of the situation in the UK is the foreign exchange market, where it has been a storm for the sterling pound for a month already. Quotes then break through the key levels and then come back. This is probably due to the fact that even the major players cannot decide on the action plan since the prospects for the development of events are unclear. While some analysts expect Brexit to be canceled since London will not dare to incur significant costs and risks associated with leaving the EU without an agreement (and this will be a positive scenario for the pound), others rely on the worst option in which the GBP / USD pair will first fall to the medium-term support of 1.25 and then drop to multi-year lows below 1.2. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR and GBP: the euro and pound will find it difficult to continue growth against the US dollar Posted: 04 Apr 2019 02:54 AM PDT The British pound managed to keep its position in pair with the US dollar, even though the data released on the weak PMI for the services sector in the UK indicated a decrease in GDP in March of this year. According to the IHS Markit report and a survey of purchasing managers, the index of activity in the UK services sector fell to 48.9 points in March, falling below the level of 50 points, indicating its decline. The decrease in activity in the services sector was recorded for the first time since July 2016. Economists had expected the rate to fall to 50.8 points in March. As noted in Markit, a sharp decline in activity will necessarily affect the country's GDP in March, which only confirms the stagnation of the economy in the 1st quarter of this year. However, the British pound did not show a serious fall after this report, as traders are full of optimism in the process of negotiations on Brexit. Let me remind you that the British Prime Minister Theresa May announced a meeting with the leader of the opposition Labor Party Jeremy Corbyn, who will launch the process of developing a Brexit compromise plan. Against this background, May asked for a longer delay from the EU as soon as the UK leaves the country. As for the technical picture of the GBPUSD pair, in order to maintain the upward correction of the pound, a break of resistance of 1.3190 is required, above which the bulls did not manage to get out yesterday. Only a confident consolidation at 1.3190 will lead the trading instrument to the test of local highs around 1.3265 and 1.3320. In the scenario of the pound decline, the support will be provided by the lower border of the side channel of 1.3115 and a larger level of 1.3070. The European currency remained to be traded in a narrow side channel in pair with the US dollar after the release of weak statistics for the US, which signaled a slight slowdown in the growth of the labor market. According to Automatic Data Processing Inc. and Moody's Analytics, the number of jobs in the US private sector in March this year increased by only 129,000, after rising by 197,000 in February. Economists had expected private sector growth of 173,000. Moody's Analytics noted that the US labor market is gradually weakening, and the growth in the number of jobs slows down noticeably in all sectors and companies. Let me remind you that tomorrow, there will be a more important report from the US Department of Labor on the number of jobs outside agriculture. Economists expect 175,000 jobs to be created outside of agriculture in March. According to the data, PMI's purchasing managers' index for the non-manufacturing sector of the USA fell to 56.1 points in March from 59.7 points in February, while economists expected the index to drop to 58 points. Values above 50 indicate an increase in activity. As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it generally remained unchanged. The buyers of risky assets, though they got close to the upper border of the wide side channel, but all they managed was to move it a few points. Now the main trade will unfold in the range of 1.1185-1.1250 with a middle in the area of 1.1218. Only a break of 1.1250 will lead to new highs of 1.1290 and 1.1330. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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