Forex analysis review |
- April 5, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- April 5, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- A week left before the "hard" Brexit
- Buy Brent instead of pound?
- Euro saw through a liar
- Pound ignores good news
- Bitcoin analysis for April 05, 2019
- GBP/USD analysis for April 05, 2019
- Analysis of Gold for April 05, 2019
- GBP/USD: plan for the American session on April 5. Pound waiting for news on Brexit, while maintaining high volatility
- EUR/USD: plan for the American session on April 5. Traders are waiting for data on the US labor market
- At crossroads: oil prices are waiting
- Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 05, 2019
- Technical analysis of AUD/USD for April 05, 2019
- Review of the foreign exchange market on 04/05/2019
- Trading Plan 04/05/2019
- EURUSD: A trade agreement with China will be ready in 4 weeks. The Fed officials expect economic growth
- The dollar is waiting for the March report on the US labor market
- US employment report may trigger mass sales
- BITCOIN Analysis for April 5, 2019
- Burning forecast 04/05/2019
- GBP/USD. 5th of April. Trading system "Regression Channels". The British are tired of the Brexit theme
- Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement
- EUR/USD. 5th of April. Trading system "Regression Channels". All focus on NonFarm Payrolls and US Payroll Report
- EUR/USD: plan for the European session on April 5. Trade remains in the side channel with a slight prospect of growth above
| April 5, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 05 Apr 2019 09:23 AM PDT
On January 2nd, the market initiated the depicted uptrend line around 1.2380. This uptrend line managed to push price towards 1.3200 before the GBP/USD pair came to meet the uptrend again around 1.2775 on February 14. Another bullish wave was demonstrated towards 1.3350 (Feb. 27) before the bearish pullback brought the pair towards the uptrend again. A weekly bearish gap pushed the pair towards the up-trend line (almost reaching 1.2960) before the bullish breakout above short-term bearish channel was achieved on March 11. Shortly after, the GBPUSD pair pursued the bullish momentum towards 1.3130, 1.3200 then 1.3360 where the GBPUSD failed to achieve a higher high than the one achieved on February 27. Instead, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated below 1.3250. That's why, the short term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.3150 - 1.3120 where the depicted uptrend line failed to provide any immediate bullish support leading to obvious bearish breakdown. By the end of last week, the price levels of 1.3020-1.3000 (the lower limit of the depicted movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection. This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted uptrend line are located. Bearish rejection was anticipated around these price levels (1.3160-1.3180) where the current bearish decline was initiated. Further bearish movement is expected towards 1.2950-1.2920 where the lower limit of the depicted channel is located. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| April 5, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 05 Apr 2019 09:07 AM PDT
On January 10th, the market initiated the depicted bearish channel around 1.1570. The bearish channel's upper limit managed to push price towards 1.1290 then 1.1235 before the EUR/USD pair could come again to meet the channel's upper limit around 1.1420. Shortly after, the recent bearish movement was demonstrated towards 1.1175 (channel's lower limit) where significant bullish recovery was demonstrated on March 7th. Bullish persistence above 1.1270 enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1290-1.1315 (the Highlighted-Zone) which failed to provide adequate bearish pressure. On March 18, a bullish breakout attempt was executed above 1.1327 (the upper limit of the Highlighted-zone). This enhanced further bullish movement towards 1.1450 demonstrating a false bullish breakout above the upper limit of the depicted movement channel. On the other hand, On March 22, significant bearish pressure was demonstrated around 1.1380 leading to the current bearish decline towards 1.1220 then 1.1220. Theoretically, the short term outlook for EURUSD pair remains bearish towards 1.1170 and 1.1120 as long as Bearish persistence below 1.1235 (Fibonacci 78.6%) is maintained on H4 chart. On the other hand, a bullish breakout above 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci level) would confirm the depicted bullish Head & Shoulders pattern allowing another bullish pullback to occur towards 1.1280-1.1320 where a better SELL entry can be offered. Trade recommendations : Conservative traders should wait for a bullish breakout above 1.1235 for a valid BUY entry. TP levels to be located around 1.1280, 1.1320. SL to be located below 1.1200. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| A week left before the "hard" Brexit Posted: 05 Apr 2019 07:26 AM PDT
Today, the GBP/USD pair is again under pressure amid increasing uncertainty around Brexit. British politicians have only one week left to prevent the "hard" Brexit. Currently, British Prime Minister Theresa May is actively negotiating with the opposition to develop a joint action plan for Brexit, which will be able to get a majority in parliament. However, apparently, the head of government will not have time to do this until April 12. Therefore, she sent a letter to the President of the European Council, Donald Tusk, with a request to postpone the date of the country's withdrawal from the EU on June 30. At the same time, T. May noted that the United Kingdom will try to ratify the "divorce" agreement until May 23 in order not to take part in the elections to the European Parliament. It is assumed that the final decision on granting London a postponement on Brexit will be made in Brussels at the summit of European leaders, which will be held on April 10. If the new date of Brexit is not approved, Foggy Albion will have to leave the EU on April 12. The process of leaving the UK from the EU is now so complicated that it puts into a stupor even computer algorithms that trade the pound sterling, reports Reuters. At the same time, the volatility of the British currency is close to two-year highs. Rabobank analysts urge investors to exercise caution when making trading decisions regarding the pound. "Theoretically, the Union of T. May and J. Corbyn can guarantee the majority needed to support the new Brexit plan, but so far the Prime Minister's step has not met with understanding among its party members. We believe that May's new approach only increased the likelihood of holding early parliamentary elections. The implementation of such a scenario means a growing uncertainty that will act as a negative point for the pound," said representatives of the financial institute. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 07:26 AM PDT
The dull euro will not be able to demonstrate strong growth, even if the data on the American labor market will have a negative connotation. The uptrend is likely to be limited to the $1.1260 area. Weak euro – the handiwork of the ECB. The single currency is under pressure from the policy of the European regulator, which discusses the possibility of more aggressive stimulation of the economy. Both rate cuts and increases in the QE program are considered here. Such news, as a rule, creates a "bearish" mood in the market. If traders buy euros, it is with great reluctance. At the same time, European stock markets will show a positive trend. Investors in the securities markets are always optimistic about stimulating the economy. As for the pound, it is still strongly influenced by the situation with Brexit. The trend in the British currency changes every day or two, and determine its policy. It is not surprising if today the sterling takes off after the lawmakers suddenly announce their readiness to sign an agreement on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU. Perhaps this will happen not today, but next week. Betting with bookmakers Experts and traders nervously wondering which of the scenarios will be implemented, and closely watching the rates on the reaction of the pound. As noted in the consulting company Capital Economics, recent rates indicate a more than 50% chance that by the end of 2019, the UK will still be in the EU. This will be the cancellation of the decision on withdrawal or prolongation of the Brexit terms. The risk of exit without a deal has significantly decreased in recent days, but, given the high uncertainty and the throwing of politicians, anything can happen. If Britain decides on a "hard" scenario, judging by the rates, the pound will collapse below $1.15. Local stocks and bond yields will collapse with it. May's request or condition Theresa May, in a letter published today, asked EU members to postpone the withdrawal from the group until June 30, 2019. If any transaction is agreed before the specified date, the term shall be terminated ahead of time, also specified in the message. The point here is that Britain will try to ratify the Brexit deal until May 23. If this does not happen, the country will begin preparations for elections to the European Parliament. It is worth noting that the request for the extension of the deadline is more like a condition. The question is whether European leaders are ready to accept them. Now, there is a lot of uncertainty about the pound, so traders need to keep an eye out and carefully weigh ideas with purchases or sales. Alternatively, you can choose Brent oil, which maintains a strong uptrend. The expected growth of quotes above $ 70.  |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 07:20 AM PDT The publication of the minutes of the ECB March meeting and the release of data on the US labor market was to wake up the EUR/USD pair, which spent almost the entire week near the base of the 12th figure. Alas, neither the information that some members of the Governing Council would like to hold rates at current levels, at least until March 2020 nor the growth of employment outside the agricultural sector above the forecasts of Bloomberg experts did not help the "bears" in the euro. To be fair, we must admit that the statistics on the American labor market were mixed. Yes, non-farm payrolls did not scare investors, but the slowdown in the growth of average wages from 3.4% to 3.2% was an unpleasant surprise for fans of the US dollar. If wages are not accelerated, should we expect exploits from consumer prices? Perhaps Donald Trump is right, and in the conditions of sluggishly growing inflation, the Fed should not have raised the rate in December? The topic of criticism of the President has become a frequent guest on the front pages of the world media. The owner of the White House reproached the Central Bank for excessive activity, argued that if not for monetary restriction, stock indices and GDP would have been higher and the budget deficit is smaller. His chief economic adviser Larry Kudlow urged the Fed to reduce the rate by 50 bp. At the same time, Jerome Powell repeatedly stressed the apolitical nature of the regulator, and representatives of the FOMC do not exclude the possibility of continuing the cycle of normalizing monetary policy this year. Against this backdrop, the ECB's concerns about a slowdown in eurozone GDP growth, Brexit and trade wars could be a catalyst for the peak of EUR/USD. Despite the fact that most (16 out of 21) Bloomberg experts believe that as a result of LTRO, the European debt market rates will fall (that is, the long-term refinancing program is a weakening of monetary policy and a "bearish" factor for the euro) the main currency pair at around 1.18 by the end of the year. This is less than 1.2 (this figure appeared in the January and February forecasts), but 6 figures higher than the current levels. The main drivers of growth are fiscal stimulus and stabilization of the eurozone banking system. The impact of LTRO on eurozone debt market rates The key events of the week by April 12 will be the release of data on US inflation and European industrial production, the publication of the minutes of the March Fed meeting and, of course, the meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. In my opinion, since the last meeting of the Central Bank, the situation in the economy of the currency bloc has improved somewhat, which makes it possible to count on the attack of the "hawks". First, the United States and China are on the verge of signing a trade agreement. Secondly, data on European business activity were better than expected. Third, the political landscape in Britain is improving. Technically, if EUR/USD bulls manage to return the pair's quotes within the medium-term consolidation range of 1.125-1.15, the second false breakdown of its lower limit in a month will indicate the weakness of their opponents. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 06:39 AM PDT The pound today reacts poorly to the news background regarding the prospects Brexit. Despite a series of encouraging news, the British currency paired with the dollar is leaning towards the base of the 30th figure, with a clear intention to test the mark of 1.29. Such illogical movement of the British, in my opinion, is due to the fixation of profits on the eve of the weekend, which promise to be saturated and certainly not boring. In general, the situation remains unstable, so many traders do not risk leaving open positions until Monday – this is understandable and justified. At the same time, the southern dynamics of the pair does not reflect the overall fundamental picture of the pound, because judging by the rhetoric of the leaders of London and Brussels, the parties are ready to postpone the Brexit date – the only question is the deadline. In other words, the main risk of Brexit, in general, is leveled, and this fact should provide support to the pound. Therefore, today's bearish sentiments should be treated with great caution, as buyers can take the initiative at any time. Among the variety of comments and voiced scenarios, you can isolate just one. We are talking about an unexpected proposal by the head of the European Council Donald Tusk to grant a so-called "flexible" delay: Brussels gives London a year to approve a deal with the additional opportunity to announce its withdrawal earlier than the designated deadline. According to Tusk, this is his almost personal initiative, so the final decision on this issue should be taken by EU leaders at an extraordinary summit to be held on April 12. Despite such an important clarification, it should be understood that the head of the European Council would not have risked voicing such an initiative without prior coordination with key European players. And even more so – Donald Tusk, who takes the strictest position in relation to London compared to other representatives of the EU leadership. There is only one phrase that the people calling for hard Brexit, "prepared a separate place in hell." After that, a scandal broke out, but the head of the European Council did not change his position on this issue. In other words, the option of "flexible delay", by all appearances, is now the working scenario of Brussels. And although this plan at first glance looks logical, it has several flaws, and therefore some European politicians criticized it. The fact is that if Brussels and London accept the offer of Tusk, then Britain will be forced to participate in elections to the European Parliament (which will be held on May 23). At the same time, the "flexible plan" allows MEPs from the UK to resign as soon as the country leaves the Alliance. The vacant seats will be taken by deputies from other EU countries. And at this stage, there are too many questions, as such an approach may eventually distort the configuration of political alliances in the European Parliament. In addition, the participation of the British representatives in the European legislature looks at least ridiculous, since the country has "one foot" already withdrawn from the Alliance. Nevertheless, despite all the contradictions, the participation of Britain in these elections is legally inevitable. Moreover, according to preliminary data, Theresa May has already given her consent to the electoral process, although she clarified that this situation is "not in the interests of the parties." The fact is that the British Prime Minister is trying to "negotiate" a short-term extension of the negotiation period – until June 30. But this date is unlikely to suit Europe – on the one hand, the elections to the European Parliament, which will take place just a week before the deadline, and on the other hand – the absolute uncertainty that the deputies of the House of Commons will approve the deal before the end of the allotted period. Apparently, Theresa May understands and accepts these arguments. It is likely that she will agree with the proposal of Tusk, but she will try to add her own condition – let's say if the House of Commons does vote for the approval of the deal until May 22, the UK will not participate in the elections to the European Parliament, and the Alliance will "release" London for all four parties. Whether Brussels will go to May's meeting in this request is an open question. Thus, despite the general mood of the parties not to bring the situation to a tough Brexit, the situation is not entirely unambiguous. By and large, it all depends on the outcome of the negotiations between Theresa May and the Labor Party, which take place today and will continue on the weekend. If they can find a compromise solution (this is unlikely, but still), then the events will unfold in a rapid manner. Otherwise, May will have to agree to the elections to the European Parliament and over the next months, to look for a common denominator between the Labor Party and the Conservatives. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin analysis for April 05, 2019 Posted: 05 Apr 2019 06:23 AM PDT Bitcoin has been trading sideways at the price of $5.000. Anyway, in our opinion it is very risky condition for buying due to climatic actions in the background and potential overbought condition.
According to the H1 time-frame, we found potential head and shoulders pattern in creation, which is sign that BTC may be under the distribution process. Also, there is potential wedge pattern on the right shoulder, which is another sign for potential weakness on BTC. Resistance levels are seen at the price of $5.070 and $5.323. Key support levels are seen at the price of $4.777 and $4.652. Trading recommendation: We are watching for potential breakout of the support at $4.777 to confirm downward movement and potential test of $4.652. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD analysis for April 05, 2019 Posted: 05 Apr 2019 06:05 AM PDT GBP/USD has been trading downwards as we expected. The price tested the level of 1.3030. We are still expecting lower
According to the H1 time-frame, we found the breakout of the upward trendline, which is good confirmation of the selling pressure. ADX reading is above 30 level, which is another indication that downward trend and momentum are strong. Support levels are seen at the price of 1.3016 and 1.2980. Short-term resistance is seen at the price of 1.3120. Trading recommendation: We are still holding our sell position from 1.3138 and we placed the stop lose on the breakeven. Now, we got risk free position. The downward targets are set at the price of 1.3015 and 1.2980. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of Gold for April 05, 2019 Posted: 05 Apr 2019 05:54 AM PDT Gold has been trading sideways at the price of $1.284.00 as we expected. Key support at the price of $1.280.0 is on the test.
According to the Daily time-frame, we found critical support at the price of $1.280.00. The level of $1.280.00 is the 48-day low and the neckline from the head and shoulders pattern in the background, which makes this level even more important because it is confirming different kind of supports. We are waiting for potential breakout of the $1.280.00 to open sell deals. Key supports are found at the price of $1.258.20 (Fibonacci expansion 100%) and $1.218.00 (Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). Key resistance is seen at the price of $1.324.00. Trading recommendation: We are waiting for potential breakout of the $1.280.00 to look for sell opportunities with targets at $1.258.20 and $1.218.00. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 05:29 AM PDT To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: In the first half of the day, pound buyers failed to get above the resistance of 1.3122, which led to a downward correction in the pair and also missed the support range of 1.3072. At the moment, it is best to return to pound purchases after fixing above the resistance of 1.3072, and the emerging divergence on the MACD indicator can help the bulls in this. In this scenario, the demand for the pound will lead to a test of the maximum of the day in the area of 1.3122 and to an update of the level of 1.3160. In the case of a further decline of the pair after the report on the American labor market, it is best to return to long positions on the rebound from 1.3030 and 1.2979. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The bears held the resistance at 1.3122, which led to a gradual decrease in the pound and consolidation below the support at 1.3072. An unsuccessful attempt to grow above this range in the second half of the day will be a direct signal to open new short positions in GBP/USD in order to update the lows around 1.3030 and 1.2979, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a return to 1.3072, new sales of the pound can be considered from the high of the day in the area of 1.3122 and a rebound from the resistance of 1.3160. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is conducted below 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates that the bearish trend in the market remains. Bollinger bands The breakthrough of the lower border of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.3054 will lead to a new wave of the pound decline. The growth will be limited by the average border of the channel around 1.3103. Description of indicators
 |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 05:29 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD, you need: In the first half of the day, there was absolute calm. Only a breakthrough above the resistance of 1.1248 will form a new upward wave with the update of the highs in the area of 1.1270 and 1.1294, where I recommend fixing the profits. In the scenario of a further euro decline in the afternoon, which may occur during the data on the American labor market, it is best to consider new long positions provided a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1218 or to rebound from the lower border of the side channel in the area of 1.1186. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need: While trade will be conducted below the range of 1.1248, the pressure on the euro will remain, and good data on the American labor market will lead to an update of the middle of the wide side channel of 1.1218, as well as its lower limit of 1.1186, where I recommend fixing the profits. If the growth scenario is higher than 1.1248 in the second half of the day, it is best to consider short positions on the rebound from the resistance of 1.1269 and 1.1294. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market. Bollinger bands Only a breakthrough of the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands indicator in the area of 1.1218 will increase the pressure on the euro. Description of indicators
 |
| At crossroads: oil prices are waiting Posted: 05 Apr 2019 05:17 AM PDT At the moment, the price of black gold reached multi-month highs but can not decide on the future direction. According to some analysts, the global market is on the verge of collapse. Thanks to the efforts of the world central banks, financial assets worldwide have risen in price. This trend has affected oil futures, which are also a financial asset. However, the high probability of a slowdown in the global economy makes its own adjustments to a positive picture. In the case of such a scenario, we should expect a collapse in oil prices since a slowing economy consumes less oil and the rise in prices of black gold has negatively affected economic growth. Experts find it difficult to answer what factors can trigger this process. Due to the general uncertainty, the price of black gold is also in a "suspended" state. It is not known where the pendulum will swing if either in the direction of growth or decline. There is a shortage of heavy raw materials in the world oil market, which is mined in Venezuela and Iran. The reason for this is the US sanctions against these countries, as well as the reduction in production of OPEC + led by Saudi Arabia. The deficient high-sulfur oil, whose indicative grade is Dubai, has been trading at its lowest level since December 2018 in relation to the North Sea Brent. At the same time, the shale boom recorded in the USA provides impressive volumes of light low-sulfur oil supply. Dubai's cost relative to Brent contributed to the discrepancy in the profitability of oil refining into gasoline and fuel oil, noted in the news agency, Bloomberg. Typically, more fuel oil is produced from sulfur oil, which is used as a marine fuel. At the moment, the margin is in the red. At the same time, the margin of gasoline production increased to $7 in March 2019, whereas it was at about $2 a barrel at the end of January of this year. Experts pay attention to the fact that the distillation of low-sulfur oil and the benchmark for which is Brent, usually gives more automotive fuel than varieties like Dubai. Due to this, the price of Brent was higher than the cost of the Middle Eastern brand, analysts emphasized.  |
| Technical analysis of NZD/USD for April 05, 2019 Posted: 05 Apr 2019 04:11 AM PDT The NZD/USD pair is showing signs of strength following a breakout of the highest level of 0.6765. On the H1 chart, the level of 0.6765 coincides with 23.6% of Fibonacci, which is expected to act as minor support today. Since the trend is above the 23.6% Fibonacci level, the market is still in an uptrend. But, major support is seen at the level of 0.6735. Furthermore, the trend is still showing strength above the moving average (100). Thus, the market is indicating a bullish opportunity above the above-mentioned support levels, for that the bullish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the upside. Therefore, strong support will be found at the level of 0.6735 providing a clear signal to buy with a target seen at 0.6842. If the trend breaks the minor resistance at 0.6842, the pair will move upwards continuing the bullish trend development to the level 0.6911 in order to test the double top. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis of AUD/USD for April 05, 2019 Posted: 05 Apr 2019 04:05 AM PDT The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 0.7046 and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. Hence, the major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards thae first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. Overall, however, we still prefer the bullish scenario. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Review of the foreign exchange market on 04/05/2019 Posted: 05 Apr 2019 03:39 AM PDT It seems that the bidders began to understand the words of Jean-Claude Juncker that there would be no further delay and the UK should have decided by April 12 on how it will be evicted from the European "hostel". Also, many began to understand what the reservation means that Europe is ready for a "hard" Brexit. Many recalled that Europe has managed to adopt several dozen legislative acts designed to minimize negative consequences should the United Kingdom to leave the European Union without an agreement. However, the UK itself did nothing of the kind and only engaged in endless chatter about the feasibility of Brexit and the like. Many in London are still talking about the second referendum. In other words, "hard" Brexit is becoming more and more real every day and clearly, London is not yet ready for it. At the same time, there is no clarity of what to do, since in London they only continue to talk and it is not surprising that the pound went down as the whole situation was realized. Yet, the single European currency looked much better, although data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States were much better than predicted. Their total number decreased not by 1 thousand, but by 48 thousand. At the same time, the number of initial applications decreased by 10 thousand, which should have increased by 4 thousand. The number of repeated applications decreased to 38 thousand instead of decreasing by 5 thousand. Apparently, such good data, especially on the eve of today's publication of the report of the United States Department of Labor, forced many to adjust their plans and take into account the high probability that actual labor market data will differ from the forecast data. And significantly. This is a kind of uncertainty, and in such conditions, nobody wants to risk. At the same time, the minutes of the meeting of the European Central Bank published yesterday left everyone indifferent, as it was no different from the statements that Mario Draghi had already made. So, nobody saw anything new there. Only another confirmation of the fact that the European Central Bank, in fact, resumes the program of quantitative easing. Therefore today, all attention will only be on the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor, especially since no more interesting data comes out. It is clear that yesterday's data on applications for benefits somewhat correct the expectations on the content of the report but they correct them for the better. Moreover, the forecasts themselves are moderately optimistic. Indicators such as the unemployment rate and the growth rate of the average hourly wage should remain unchanged. However, the average working week may increase from 34.4 hours to 34.5 hours. That is, Americans are beginning to work more and therefore earn more. Consequently, it is worth waiting for the growth of retail sales and other consumer spending and with them the growth of company profits. Moreover, 180 thousand new jobs must be created outside agriculture compared with 20 thousand in the previous month, which looks wonderful altogether. In the whole report, there can be only one alarming moment. We are talking about the share of labor in the total population, which can be reduced from 63.2% to 62.9%. However, no one will pay attention to this against the background of the growing number of new jobs. Thus, even if the content of the report coincides with forecasts, it is worth waiting for the decline of the single European currency to 1.1200. It is quite possible to decrease to 1.1175 if the data turns out to be better than forecast. The pound should go down to 1.3050 and there is a chance that it will drop to 1.3025 if the content of the report of the United States Department of Labor turns out to be better than expected.  |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 03:32 AM PDT Big Picture: Brexit and US growth slowdown. The Brexit theme remains to be the center of attention. Despite the active negotiations between May and Corbin, there is no breakthrough in the issue of an agreement with the EU. May said that she would ask the EU for a new postponement of the exit from the EU. Both officials are trying to find a solution without a new referendum. The US economy is clearly showing a slowdown in growth as all the latest data speak of this. The official employment report for March will be released today at 13:30 London time. Yet, the forecasts have already been adjusted down to +150k jobs. Everyone is waiting for the start of movement in EUR/USD pair. We are ready to buy euros from 1.1255. We are ready to sell from 1.1175.  |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 02:54 AM PDT The euro slightly recovered its position in pair with the US dollar, however, but remained in the side channel after the news that a trade agreement between the US and China could be concluded in the near future. Yesterday, American President Donald Trump held a meeting with Vice Premier of China Liu He in the oval office of the White House, and then gave comments on the eve of the announcement of the date of the summit. According to the statement of the American leader, it will be a great agreement that suits both parties, since the negotiations are going very well. If a trade agreement is reached with China, a summit will be held, but no provisional date has yet been set. Trump said that the results of the negotiations will be known in the next four weeks. The American President also returned to the topic of the wall on the border with Mexico, once again reminding everyone that if the Mexican side does not help with the construction of the wall, the White House administration will decide on imposing duties on its cars. Last night, a number of speeches were made by representatives of the Federal Reserve System, who generally spoke about the same thing, outlining their vision of the future of the American economy. Speaking at a conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, its President John Williams said that the outlook for the economy is positive, as unemployment remains low and there are no signs of strong inflationary pressures. Williams expects GDP growth of about 2% in 2019. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester said on Thursday that an increase in interest rates by the US Central Bank is still possible this year. However, it will be necessary provided that the economy meets expectations. Mester also considers the current completion of interest rate increases by the Fed to be entirely appropriate. The Fed representative expects continued economic growth and a strong labor market and predicts that inflation will remain around 2%, while GDP growth in 2019 will be above 2%, as the economy is doing well, and the recent weakness is probably temporary. As for the technical picture of the EURUSD pair, it remained unchanged. The bears did not succeed in consolidating below the middle of the lateral channel in the area of 1.1220 yesterday, and today this is their main task. Only under this condition will the pressure on risky assets continue, which may lead to a renewal of the lower boundary in the area of 1.1185. Under the scenario of the upward correction of the euro, the upper limit of the side channel in the region of 1.1250 remains good resistance. We should not forget about the important report on the change in the number of people employed in the US non-farm sector, which will be published this afternoon. Even a weak report on the state of the labor market can lead to a strengthening of the US dollar, as the recent trend has been reduced to the demand for safe-haven assets with the release of weak but important fundamental data. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| The dollar is waiting for the March report on the US labor market Posted: 05 Apr 2019 02:50 AM PDT Today, the main event for participants of the foreign exchange market will undoubtedly be the publication of statistical data on the US labor market in March. It is expected that the current release will attract more attention of investors after the failed February release with the number of new jobs at the level of 20,000. Economists expect employment growth of 175,000 people. However, this will be a decrease when compared with the average of last year. The slowdown in the labor market is usually a lagging indicator of the approach or the actual occurrence of a recession in the US economy. A sharp decrease in the number of new jobs is not a sign of a recession in the event that such a monthly drop is only one-time in nature and has specific reasons in the form of a "shutdown" or bad weather. The repetition of the February situation could be a wake-up signal for the American economy. "If the March employment report does not reach expectations, we will get two weak indicators in a row. This may revive concerns about the recession and throw the yield of 10-year Treasuries back to their minimum at the end of March," the experts of Bank Credit Agricole noted. According to experts, if the labor market data is confirmed at the level of forecasts or turns out to be better than them, then this will give the dollar an upward momentum. The failed non-farm can cause a negative market reaction and provoke a weakening of the greenback, but in the current situation – with the threat of a recession – in many countries of the world, there is simply no alternative to the dollar, so it will be bought in the fall. In addition, a weak release can cause a serious blow to the risk appetite of investors, which again will play in favor of the "American". The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| US employment report may trigger mass sales Posted: 05 Apr 2019 02:45 AM PDT The report on the US labor market is one of the key benchmarks for investors, which can bring both good news and bad. One of which is to strengthen the positive sentiment that dominates after the Fed refuses to continue the growth of rates return panic if it turns out that the labor market and has moved into a contraction phase. While the forecasts are favorable, It is predicted that the number of new jobs will grow by no less than 180 thousand after a failed 20 thousand a month ago despite the fact that the ADP report turned out to be noticeably weaker than expected. A rollback up is more than likely to occur. At the same time, the dynamics of average wages are even more interesting. Sure growth of 3.4% pushes up inflation expectations, the yield on 5-year bonds Tips gives a chance to see inflation in April, which will somewhat expand the range of opportunities for the Fed. Events such as the decline in GDP growth rates, the growth of the budget deficit, the inversion of the yield spread, and other unpleasant factors increase tensions and expectations that the recession will come soon. Therefore, wage growth is regarded by the markets as one of the few real possibilities to keep consumer demand high. The decrease in this indicator can dramatically increase panic and cause an outflow of capital from stock markets, as it confirms the course of the world economy to a new economic crisis. EUR / USD pair The ECB expressed confidence that the main risks came from external factors including Brexit, protectionism, and a slowdown in China. These risks primarily hit the manufacturing industry, while the services sector continues to go up, moreover, some of the internal growth factors have gradually begun to disappear. Also, the ECB focuses on some positive factors, such as a positive result of fiscal measures, stabilization in the automotive industry in Germany, increased employment and wages, and favorable financing conditions. It seems that the ECB is quite pleased with the development of events but at the same time leaves the opportunity to expand the use of TLTRO at the next meeting in June. Anxiety on the ECB may increase due to lower inflation expectations. However, a slowdown in inflation to 0.8% in March is not at all what the regulator needs but fundamental factors make it possible to rely on the temporary nature of this slowdown which will resume in the long run. First of all, we are talking about strong wage growth, which does not turn into consumer price growth. This is a serious problem that may indicate an increase in fears due to the coming recession and decline in consumer activity as a result. In short, people prefer not to spend but to save. In general, the likelihood of further easing by the ECB remains high. The dynamics of the EUR/USD pair will depend on both external factors while the reduction of global threats will support the euro and plans of the ECB. If there are signs that the ECB is preparing an expansion of the TLTRO at the June meeting, the euro may well fall to 1.10 or lower. Today, the attention of the markets is directed to the US employment report and before its publication. The euro will be traded in the range of 1.1205/50 and exit can take place in any direction, depending on the report. GBP / USD pair Intensive negotiations between Theresa May and Labor leader Corbin did not lead to a concrete result. The parties confined themselves to short statements that the negotiations were productive and did not reveal any specifics. Today the meeting will continue and it is obvious that British politicians have finally realized the seriousness of the current situation. The EU did not blackmail. The belligerent statements of the British side at the preliminary stage did not impress anyone and suddenly turned out that the prospect of withdrawing from the EU without a deal, which became more than real. It would cause the UK economy much more damage than previously thought. The pound is trading neutral with a slight decrease as every day the prospects for reaching an acceptable solution are reduced. From the resistance level of 1.3120/22, a decline is likely to occur to 1.3062 and further down to 1.3012. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| BITCOIN Analysis for April 5, 2019 Posted: 05 Apr 2019 02:33 AM PDT Bitcoin is still trading at near $5,000 being held by the dynamic support levels. BTC is likely to extend the impulsive bullish gain, though correctional moves and indecision are slowing down the steady uptrend. The price recently rejected off the $4,800 area holding inside the Kumo Cloud support along the way. Trading inside the Kumo Cloud indicates that the bullish bias is still strong to push the price higher. The price is currently being held by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan, and Kijun line whereas the Chikou Span is currently being held by the trendline. As the price breaks above $5,000, all technical indicators clearly signal a further bullish impulsive move. BTC price could reach $5,250 and later move towards $5,500 in the future. SUPPORT: 4,500, 4,800 RESISTANCE: 5,000, 5,250, 5,500 BIAS: BULLISH MOMENTUM: VOLATILE
 |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 01:31 AM PDT The EURUSD is trapped in a narrow range and is ready to start moving. The impulse can come from the news on Brexit - Theresa May and the opposition leader Corbyn try to find a compromise that suits the majority and from the news on the US economy - today the report on employment for March at 11:30 London time We are ready to buy the euro from 1.1255 We are ready to sell the euro from 1.1175  |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 01:30 AM PDT 4-hour timeframe Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - up. Lower linear regression channel: direction - down. Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways CCI: 11.7565 The GBP/USD currency pair continues to be thrown from side to side, as traders find it difficult to understand what awaits the UK in the future, what will be the result of the three-year Brexit procedure. According to the latest opinion polls, it becomes clear that most of the UK population is already tired of the Brexit topic. If some time ago, the words "unclear" and "uncertain" prevailed in the moods of the population, now most of the respondents describe the current situation as "chaos". Moreover, the majority of respondents believe that discussions on the country's withdrawal from the EU already have a negative impact on their mental health. Meanwhile, the UK is preparing for mass riots, which are possible against the backdrop of all that is happening in the country's politics. The European Union continues to offer options for a prolonged postponement of Brexit, but London is not satisfied with this option. Like many other options on the "divorce" with the European Union, which was rejected by the Parliament. We still believe that the pound sterling is prone to fall, just as long as some invisible forces keep it from conquering new lows. But these forces will not be able to restrain the pound forever. It seems that at one point, the pair will simply collapse and update the lows on January 3. Nearest support levels: S1 - 1.3062 S2 - 1.3000 S3 - 1.2939 Nearest resistance levels: R1 - 1.3123 R2 - 1.3184 R3 - 1.3245 Trading recommendations: The pair GBP/USD once again changed the direction of movement and fixed below the MA. At the same time, it was not possible to overcome the level of 1.3062, and now the pair can at least begin a correction, and, as a maximum once again gain a foothold above the moving average. Not a good time to bid. Buy-positions can be considered after fixing the pair above the moving average, but only with a "short" target – 1.3184. In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release. Explanations for illustrations: The higher linear regression channel is the blue lines of the unidirectional movement. The lower linear channel is the purple lines of the unidirectional movement. CCI is the blue line in the indicator regression window. The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart. Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes. Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Trading recommendations for the GBPUSD currency pair - prospects for further movement Posted: 05 Apr 2019 01:28 AM PDT For the last trading day, the currency pair pound / dollar showed a high volatility of 130 points, as a result of having a downward impulse movement. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that the one-day respite in volatility gave way to another surge, which was to be expected. What we have is testing the level of the cluster of 1.3200 (20), where the quotation felt resistance and rolled us back to the level of 1.3060. On the other hand, the information and news background yesterday was busy with understanding the earlier statement by the Head of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, who noted that April 12 is the deadline for approval of the exit agreement by the House of Commons. If this does not happen by this time, then there will be no more short delay. In fact, this is one of the reasons for yesterday's decline in the pound. Since the news flow was empty, there were no statements from high-ranking officials either. Today, the day began with a new drop of Brexit, President of the European Council Donald Tusk considers it possible to offer Britain a "flexible" 12-month delay in leaving the European Union. The idea of Tusk will be the subject of discussion at an emergency summit of EU leaders on April 10. It should be understood that the words of Tusk were built in such a way that it is not clear whether Britain is obliged to accept the existing agreement before April 12. At the same time, it is also worth considering that a weightier voice in the person of European Commission Head Jean-Claude Juncker, has already stated that there will not be a delay if the agreement is not accepted. Thus, draw your own conclusions. In terms of the economic calendar, we have important statistics from the United States regarding Non Farm Payrolls data, where significant growth is expected from 20K to 180K. On this news, speculators are already predicting a dollar strengthening, which is what we expect. The upcoming trading week expects to be intense both in terms of statistics and on the information background, where the fate of long-playing Brexit will be decided. Displayed below are the most relevant events of the week. Monday United States 17:00 MSK - Volume of industrial orders (m / m) (Feb): Prev. 0.1% ---> Forecast -0.5% Tuesday United States 17:00 MSK - Number of vacancies in the labor market JOLTS (Feb): Prev. 7.581M ---> Forecast 7.540M Wednesday United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - GDP (y / y): Prev. 1.4% United Kingdom 11:30 Moscow time. - Production volume in the manufacturing industry (g / g) (Feb) United States 15:30 MSK - Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y / y) (Mar): Prev. 1.5% ---> Forecast 1.8% United States 21:00 MSK - Publication of FOMC protocols Meeting of the European Council, where there will be a discussion regarding Brekzit. Thursday United States 15:30 MSK - Producer Price Index (PPI) (y / y) (Mar): Prev. 1.9% Friday Brexit Key Day These are preliminary and subject to change. Further development Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that after the impulse move, the quotation felt a temporary support in the region of 1.3060, where we saw a pullback against the background of overheating. It is likely to assume that the quotation on the general information and news background will try to turn around, where traders are looking for fixation below 1.3060 with the prospect of a move to 1.3000. Based on the available data, it is possible to decompose a number of variations. Let's consider them: - Purchase items are not currently being considered. Possible consideration will occur in the case of a slowdown in the region of 1.3000. - Positions for sale, as written in the previous review, traders considered a point to enter 1.3150. This is a breakdown of the existing stagnation. Now, we already have a position, and the prospect remains in the direction of 1.3000. If we do not have deals, we will wait for a fixation lower than 1.3060. Indicator Analysis Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that there was an upward interest against the background of a rollback in the short term. Meanwhile, intraday and mid-term perspective shows a downward interest against the general background of the market. Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, with the calculation for the Month / Quarter / Year. (April 5 was based on the time of publication of the article) The current time volatility is 53 points. It is likely to assume that against the background of Non Farm, and the general information background, volatility will remain at a high level. Key levels Zones of resistance: 1.3220 *; 1,3300 **; 1.3440; 1.3580 *; 1.3700 Support areas: 1.3000 ** (1.3000 / 1.3050); 1.2920 *; 1.2770 (1.2720 / 1.2770) **; 1.2620; 1.2500 *; 1.2350 **. * Periodic level ** Range Level The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 01:16 AM PDT 4-hour timeframe Technical details: Higher linear regression channel: direction - down. Lower linear regression channel: direction - down. Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways. CCI: 27.9383 The EUR/USD currency pair resumed its downward movement on Friday, April 5, and also failed to overcome the moving average line. Yesterday was "empty" in terms of macroeconomic reports. Thus, traders resumed selling the euro precisely against the background of a lack of fundamental support for the European currency. Important releases in the United States are scheduled on the last trading day of the week. First, there will be a report on the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. After the failure of the previous report (20k), the March value should be much higher. The forecast is 180k. However, the real value may differ from the forecast, and depending on which way it will differ, the reaction of traders will also be different. Secondly, there will be a report on the change in the average wage for March. An increase of 3.4% is expected. These two reports can greatly affect the movement of the pair. For the euro, on the basis of yesterday's and the day before yesterday's trading, the main chance lies in the weakness of the designated reports. In this case it will be possible to count on a strengthening of the euro currency. But from a technical point of view, it will be difficult for the pair to overcome the Murray level of "-1/8" - 1,1200 - this is the lower limit of a strong support zone, which the pair cannot overcome for several months. Nearest support levels: S1 - 1,1200 S2 - 1.1169 Nearest resistance levels: R1 - 1.1230 R2 - 1.1261 R3 - 1,1292 Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD currency pair has resumed its downward movement. Thus, it is now recommended to consider trading for a decline with targets of 1,1200 and 1,1169, before the new upward turn of the Heiken-Ashi indicator. Buy positions are recommended to be considered not earlier than when traders have overcome the moving average line with targets of 1.1261 and 1.1292. In this case, the trend for the instrument will change to an upward one, and the euro will have a small chance of strengthening. In addition to the technical picture, one should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release. Explanations for illustrations: The higher linear regression channel is the blue lines of unidirectional movement. The lower linear regression channel is the purple lines of unidirectional movement. CCI - blue line in the indicator window. The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart. Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes. Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 05 Apr 2019 12:38 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD you need: Yesterday's ECB minutes and data on the US labor market once again led to a demand for the US dollar that quickly ended, which made it possible for us to return to the resistance level of 1.1218 by the end of the day. To continue the upward trend, it is necessary to break through the resistance of 1.1248. A consolidation at this level will lead to a new upward wave with the update of the highs in the area of 1.1270 and 1.1294, where I recommend to take profits. In case of the euro declines in the first half of the day, it is best to consider new long positions, provided that a false breakdown is formed in the support area of 1.1218 or to rebound from the lower border of the side channel in the area of 1.1186. To open short positions on EURUSD you need: Bears will emerge in the resistance area of 1.1248, and while the trade will be conducted below this range, we can expect that the pressure on the euro will continue. However, the main task for the first half of the day will be to return below the middle of the wide side channel of 1.1218, which will increase the pressure on the euro and lead to a test of its lower boundary in the area of 1.1186, where I recommend taking profits. When the growth scenario is above 1.1248 in the first half of the day, it is best to consider short positions to rebound from resistances of 1.1269 and 1.1294. Indicator signals: Moving averages Trade is conducted in the area of 30-day and 50-day moving averages, which indicates the lateral nature of the market. Bollinger bands Volatility is very low, which does not provide signals for entering the market. Description of indicators
 |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Forex analysis review. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment