Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- USDNOK Drops as Norges Bank says Rates Will Likely Rise in June
- BRL, Ibovespa Rise Up Central Bank Decision, Eyeing US-China Trade Talks
- BRL, Ibovespa Rise Up Central Bank Decision, Eyeing US-China Trade Talks
- DIS Earnings Impress, Market Awaits Trade Data
- Latest US China Trade War Uncertainty Continues to Stir Forex Volatility
- Gold Price Retreats From Resistance, Can Gold Bulls Take Control?
- GBPJPY Range Breakout Begins amid Stocks’ Struggles, Latest Brexit News
- Gold Trading at Resistance; Crude Oil, DAX Charts & More
- Dow, S&P 500 Continue to Show Pressure After Last Week’s FOMC
- GBPUSD Suffers as Brexit Talks Risk Failing, PM May Pressured to Resign
| USDNOK Drops as Norges Bank says Rates Will Likely Rise in June Posted: 09 May 2019 02:58 AM PDT Hits: 13 NOK Talking Points:
The Norwegian Krone received a boost Thursday as a hawkish stance by Norges Bank pointed to a rate hike next month. Coupled with a positive Norwegian economy, both EURNOK and USDNOK weakened even though lingering trade concerns and softening oil prices could threaten the economy's expansion. In March, the Central Bank decided to increase rates by 0.25 percentage points to 1.0%, as economic expansion was stronger than earlier anticipated. Despite leaving rates unchanged in May, Norges Bank has been the outlier to a general dovish stance from central banks and said Thursday that a rate hike is on the cards for its next meeting in June. How Will Stocks Drop, Crude Oil Prices Impact Norges Bank Policy? – by Dimitri Zabelin, Junior Currency Analyst NORWAY'S OIL INDUSTRY BOOMINGThe Norwegian economy has been booming and this is mostly due to an increase in energy-related investments, resulting in inflation rising above the central bank's target level. The Norwegian Oil and Gas Association (NOG) has predicted that investment in Norway's oil industry will rise by 16% year-on-year to 184.5 billion crowns in 2019, beating previous expectations of 135 billion crowns. Despite oil prices being as high as $110 per barrel in mid-2014, an unhealthy cost structure across the industry meant that companies were still experiencing negative cash flows. But a recent restructuring in the industry has led to increased efficiency and competitiveness, reducing the breakeven price for Norwegian oil projects to around $25-30 per barrel, well below current market prices for oil. This has led to an increase in energy-related investments, helping to boost the economy and tighten the jobs market. HIGHER OIL PRICES AND A WEAKER KRONESince its previous meeting, the Norwegian Krone has continued to weaken against the US Dollar, something that Norges Bank was not anticipating. Additionally, oil prices have increased since its last policy meeting in March. Both these factors strengthen the chances of the central bank increasing rates in the second quarter of 2019, but the focus will be on the development of trade talks and recent softening oil prices, which could have the potential to turn the Norges Bank slightly more dovish. USDNOK DAILY PRICE CHART: THE KRONE HAS SOFTENED OIL PRICE DAILY CHART: OIL PRICES HAVE CONTINUED TO RISE
Source: IG KEY TRADING RESOURCES:— Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Junior Analyst 2019-05-09 09:00:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| BRL, Ibovespa Rise Up Central Bank Decision, Eyeing US-China Trade Talks Posted: 08 May 2019 06:26 PM PDT Hits: 15 TALKING POINTS – BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK, BRL, IBOVESPA, PENSION REFORMS
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! The Brazilian Real and Ibovespa futures jumped after the 9-member Copom council in Brazil's central bank unanimously decided to keep the Selic rate at the all-time low of 6.50 percent. Local assets rallied after board members stated that inflationary pressures are symmetric, and this likely cooled rate cut expectations and sent the Real higher. BRL, Ibovespa Futures Gain This appears to be part of a broader trend whereby the expectations of dovish undertones from central bank officials are met with surprise by investors when policymakers announce a comparatively-less dovish outlook. The most recent examples was this month's FOMC meeting and the RBA rate decision earlier this week. The Brazilian monetary policy statement revealed that board members are showing greater concern over world and local growth prospects in part due to "the global outlook [remaining] challenging". The sudden deterioration in US-China trade relations this week caught markets off guard and pressured emerging market economies and other cycle-sensitive assets. The cautionary outlook from the central bank is also due to the slower growth in local economic activity at the tail end of 2018 which continued into the early stretches of 2019. One needn't look much further than this month's release of industrial production data which significantly undershot analysts' expectations. Slower growth out of China – one of Brazil's biggest clients for its iron-exporting sector – continues to pressure the Brazilian economy. Furthermore, local risks over the volatility of President Jair Bolsonaro's pension reforms continues to rattle local financial markets due to the weight they carry for South America's largest economy. Much like Brexit and the BoE, the Brazilian central bank's monetary policy is in large part catered toward whether the pension reforms can pass with many of the key elements intact. Learn more about how Bolsonaro's pension reforms may unleash a flood of capital into Brazilian assets. FX TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| BRL, Ibovespa Rise Up Central Bank Decision, Eyeing US-China Trade Talks Posted: 08 May 2019 05:12 PM PDT Hits: 1 TALKING POINTS – BRAZIL CENTRAL BANK, BRL, IBOVESPA, PENSION REFORMS
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! The Brazilian Real and Ibovespa futures jumped after the 9-member Copom council in Brazil's central bank unanimously decided to keep the Selic rate at the all-time low of 6.50 percent. Local assets rallied after board members stated that inflationary pressures are symmetric, and this likely cooled rate cut expectations and sent the Real higher. BRL, Ibovespa Futures Gain
This appears to be part of a broader trend whereby the expectations of dovish undertones from central bank officials are met with surprise by investors when policymakers announce a comparatively-less dovish outlook. The most recent examples was this month's FOMC meeting and the RBA rate decision earlier this week. The Brazilian monetary policy statement revealed that board members are showing greater concern over world and local growth prospects in part due to "the global outlook [remaining] challenging". The sudden deterioration in US-China trade relations this week caught markets off guard and pressured emerging market economies and other cycle-sensitive assets. The cautionary outlook from the central bank is also due to the slower growth in local economic activity at the tail end of 2018 which continued into the early stretches of 2019. One needn't look much further than this month's release of industrial production data which significantly undershot analysts' expectations. Slower growth out of China – one of Brazil's biggest clients for its iron-exporting sector – continues to pressure the Brazilian economy. Furthermore, local risks over the volatility of President Jair Bolsonaro's pension reforms continues to rattle local financial markets due to the weight they carry for South America's largest economy. Much like Brexit and the BoE, the Brazilian central bank's monetary policy is in large part catered toward whether the pension reforms can pass with many of the key elements intact. Learn more about how Bolsonaro's pension reforms may unleash a flood of capital into Brazilian assets. FX TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter
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| DIS Earnings Impress, Market Awaits Trade Data Posted: 08 May 2019 02:46 PM PDT Hits: 7 Stock Market Update Talking Points:
Stock Market Update: DIS Earnings Impress, Market Awaits Trade DataAmid a tumultuous trading session, Disney (DIS) was one of the few stocks on the Dow Jones to close in the green. Anticipation for their quarterly report saw DIS shares climb 1.21% in Wednesday trading – only to climb another 1.63% in the after-hours session as the results were released. A strong quarterly performance from one of the Dow Jones' hottest stocks should inject optimism back into the Average on Thursday. Upon the earnings release, DIS remained within the implied price range and above the sizable price gap. View our Economic Calendar for upcoming data releases. While meaningful, Disney earnings pale in comparison to the larger issues plaguing the stock market. As trade war talks hit a rough patch, markets have sold off and the VIX has spiked. With all eyes on Friday's deadline, insight into the effects of the economic bout will be offered Thursday with the release of US trade balance data from March. A deficit of -$51.1 billion is expected, climbing from February's deficit of -$49.4 billion. US Trade Deficit MountsSource: Bloomberg Since the US-China trade war began back in June 2018, markets have been offered 8 months of trade data. Because the data trails by two months, the shaded area above highlights data released from September to February – along with tomorrow's expected balance. Although many economists have debated the exact impact of higher tariffs, the longer-term implications are unclear. Similarly, the takeaways that can be garnered from the balance between the United States and China alone is also opaque. In February 2018, the United States imported $39.07 billion in goods from China while exporting $9.8 billion – resulting in a deficit of roughly -$29.26 billion. In 2019, imports in the month of February totaled $33.19 billion, accompanied by exports of $8.43 billion – resulting in a deficit of -$24.76 billion.
Source: Bloomberg While the US-China trade deficit shrank in comparable time periods, the data is too noisy to draw a firm conclusion. One thing that is clear however, is the overall widening trade deficit of the United States. Despite the smaller deficit with China, the total balance continues to fall deeper into the red. Over the last 9 years, the monthly average deficit has climbed to -$52.10 billion from -$32.49 billion. In tomorrow's report, traders and investors will scour the data for any indication a trend has developed from the trade war. To that end, specific sectors like agriculture (soybeans) and larger goods like airplanes and machinery will be important areas to watch. The data will assist investors in forecasting the ramifications of a potential change in levy rates on Friday. Check back at DailyFX.com for a breakdown and analysis of tomorrow's trade data. –Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX Read more: Stock Market Volatility and its Relationship with S&P 500 Returns DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Latest US China Trade War Uncertainty Continues to Stir Forex Volatility Posted: 08 May 2019 02:08 PM PDT Hits: 8 CURRENCY VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS
According to the 1-week implied volatility reading on the DXY US Dollar Index, expected price action has risen from a low of 4.79 percent last Thursday to 5.86 percent today. The recent jump in currency market volatility is primarily owed to the bombshell tweets from US President Trump on Sunday as he threated to raise tariffs on China with trade talks reportedly breaking down between the world's two largest economies. DXY US DOLLAR INDEX 1-WEEK IMPLIED VOLATILITY PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (AUGUST 01, 2018 TO MAY 08, 2019)Although currency volatility measures remain relatively subdued across the major USD crosses, implied volatility on the DXY US Dollar Index still appears like it is beginning to trend higher. The recent jolt of risk has potential to escalate further if a resolution is not quickly found between the US and China over their ongoing trade war. FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITY AND TRADING RANGES
With major event risk for the New Zealand Dollar in hindsight, NZDUSD implied volatility has dropped from multi-year highs after a dovish RBNZ cut its policy interest rate. Although, uncertainty over the outcome of ongoing trade talks between the US and China has caused NZDUSD implied volatility to tick higher on balance. This is likely due to New Zealand's high level of dependence on economic activity out of China – the risk posed by elevated trade deal tension has consequently weighed on expected price action in the Kiwi. Likewise, the size of price swings in the Japanese Yen has also risen as of late. Spot USDJPY has recorded a string of moves lower amid the recent shift by traders towards 'anti-risk' in response to the flareup in trade war uncertainty and the accompanying headwind to global economic growth it could pose. In fact, USDJPY 1-week implied volatility currently sits at 7.56 percent – well above its year-to-date average of 5.74 percent. US CHINA TRADE WAR RISK AND CURRENCY VOLATILITYWhile both NZDUSD and USDJPY have been undoubtedly impacted by the latest US China trade war developments, currency price action in the Chinese Yuan and Mexican Peso also reflect heightened market risk and uncertainty. CNY has come under pressure as forex traders reflect the reduced likelihood that the US and China reach a deal this week which pushed USDCNH above the 6.8000 handle to its highest level since January. USDCNH PRICE CHART VS IMPLIED VOLATILITY: DAILY TIME FRAME (SEPTEMBER 03, 2018 TO MAY 08, 2019)
Moves in USDCNH could signal trade talks between the US and China are deteriorating if advances in the currency pair are considered to suggest a reduced likelihood that a trade agreement will be reached. The decline in spot USDCNH prior its spike higher over the last few days was driven primarily by growing expectations that there would be a Sino-American trade war resolution. With USDCNH overnight and 1-week implied volatility at 8.41 percent and 7.35 percent respectively, which are the highest readings since December 2018, forex markets are still anticipating heightened price action. That being said, the outcome of trade talks this week will likely dictate where CNY heads from here and cause USDCNH to either whipsaw lower or exacerbate its move higher. While tweets early Wednesday from President Trump seemed optimistic that Chinese negotiators are still coming to the US for a trade deal this week, officials from China have stated that they plan to retaliate on Trump's tariff increase scheduled to take effect Friday. USDMXN PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (FEBRUARY 24, 2019 TO MAY 08, 2019)
Turning attention to the Mexico Peso, USDMXN implied volatility jumped to 12.47 percent and 9.89 percent for the overnight and 1-week tenors respectively. Since the trade war has dampened economic activity between the US and China, Mexico has taken place as America's top trading partner. As tariffs on Chinese goods have stymied the country's exports to the US, Mexico has reaped the benefits by increasing its own exports to the US. However, weak import demand from the US was reflected in Mexico's GDP report released late last month in addition to dampened consumption and business investment. Uncertainty surrounding trade policy from the US – including the pending USMCA deal – has been labeled as a primary factor to recent weakness in Mexico's economic data. Also, with Mexico's CPI slated for release Thursday at 13:00 GMT, this high-impact economic event could expose USDMXN to additional price swings over the short term. Judging by USDMXN overnight implied volatility, currency traders might expect spot prices to fluctuate between 18.9458 and 19.1946 with a 68 percent statistical probability over the next 24 hours. If April year-over-year inflation in Mexico is reported below expectations of 4.4 percent, the Peso could weaken further against the greenback. Conversely, a better than expected CPI number has potential of pushing USDMXN lower. TRADING RESOURCESWhether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading. – Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX – Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Gold Price Retreats From Resistance, Can Gold Bulls Take Control? Posted: 08 May 2019 11:41 AM PDT Hits: 6 Gold Price Talking Points:– Gold prices have continued to work within the confines of a symmetrical wedge pattern, with both the support and resistance side of the formation coming into play over the past week. – Last week saw a support trend-line tested with bulls showing up around the prior 2019 swing low, taken from around 1266.10. But, as looked at in this week's technical forecast, a failure from bears to breakout there kept the door open for bullish strategies. After a gap-fill pullback to start this week, Gold prices rallied up to test the resistance side of the formation, which is currently helping to set the three-week-high in Gold prices. – DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of currencies such as Gold, the US Dollar or the Euroand are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide. Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading Gold? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Gold Price Softens After Fresh Three-Week-HighGold prices remain on the move following last week's failed breakout at 2019 lows. As looked at in this week's Technical Forecast for Gold prices, the yellow metal put in a pattern of retracement over the prior couple of months, giving back gains from the August-February bullish run. Gold prices soon found trend-line support, as taken from the August and November swing-lows from last year; and that level helped to cauterize support last week as buyers began to show-up. Gold Price Daily ChartChart prepared by James Stanley As looked at shortly after this week's open, that bullish stance in Gold prices remained workable after the weekend gap was filled. That took place in short order, and as pressure around risk aversion themes continued to show in the early-portion of this week, Gold prices held that support and began to rally. That move extended up to fresh three-week-highs as of this morning; but that's around the time that another trend-line came into play. This was a bearish trend-line drawn from the February and April swing-highs, and this produced a rather clear change in short-term price action as bulls pulled back from the throttle and prices sank right back down to the 1280.50 level. Gold Price Four-Hour Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley At this stage, Gold prices remain in a state of digestion given that trend-line inflections over the past week have governed both the sell-off and the advance. But, as written in this week's forecast, there's a case of digestion taking place within a longer-term case of digestion; the type of backdrop that could lead into very large moves, in one direction or the other. At this stage, the bullish side of Gold prices can remain as attractive, and taken from short-term charts, that theme remains workable as there is an element of support showing at a familiar level that had previously set resistance. The level of 1280.50 was the March swing low in Gold prices, and the initial re-test there in early-March led to a move that saw a $45 rally. This same level came into play in early-April, leading to a $30 bounce. This price was finally broken-thru in mid-April; but bears were setting support around 1266 a week later, and this level still stands as the yearly low in Gold prices. Gold Price Two-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley Gold Price StrategyAt this stage, given the higher-lows that have shown up so far this week along with the higher-high from this morning, and the door can remain open for short-term themes of strength in Gold. Traders can watch the support zone that runs from 1275.55 for support signals, metering aggressiveness based on how and where bulls respond here. If we do see respect of the higher-lows this week, as indicated by a hold above yesterday's swing around the 1278 handle, topside continuation with a re-test of those highs will appear attractive. If price action does dig inside of yesterday's low, the topside momentum theme won't be as attractive, but it still can remain workable for those so inclined. The key there would appear to be a hold above 1275.55, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August-February major move. If prices cannot hold above that level, then the 1266 low is exposed for a re-test and, perhaps even a bearish break upon a third test. Gold Price Hourly Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley To read more:Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| GBPJPY Range Breakout Begins amid Stocks’ Struggles, Latest Brexit News Posted: 08 May 2019 08:35 AM PDT Hits: 20 Talking Points: – The British Pound is back under pressure as signs emerge that cross-party talks between the Labour and Tory party leaders won't produce enough votes to pass the EU-UK Withdrawal Agreement. – Now that the UK will participate in the European parliamentary elections, it seems possible that UK Prime Minister Theresa May's government may be nearing the end of the line. – Retail trader FX positioning suggests that the British Pound may be due for a rough few days. Looking for longer-term forecasts on the British Pound? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides. A potential path forward on Brexit has been closed off, much to the angst of the British Pound. UK Prime Minister Theresa May has announced that she does not intend to resign early, setting up another obstacle between herself and her frustrated Tory party. With the Tory party unable to call a 'no confidence' vote until December 2019 at the earliest, the easiest path for someone like Boris Johnson becoming prime minister is no longer available. May Won't Resign; No Confidence Vote from Labour?Now that the UK has announced that it will partake in the European parliamentary elections, it appears that the cross-party talks between UK PM May's Tory party and Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party are heading for an uninspiring conclusion. The Labour party could call a 'no confidence' vote against UK PM May, and given the distaste her own Tory party has for her, it's not implausible that she loses said confidence vote. Another UK General Election Could be ComingIt's increasingly likely that another general election is around the corner. If UK PM May somehow survives the next few weeks, then the clock effectively runs down until the June 30 checkpoint. Without any progress, EU negotiators may demand 'democratic action' like a general election or a second referendum. It's still too soon to dismiss the worst-case option, that the UK crashes out of the EU without a deal. Sliding Stocks Adding to GBPJPY, GBPUSD WoesWith the latest Brexit news producing very little for traders to hang their hats on, the British Pound has started to weaken at a time when global risk appetite has already started to buckle. While this has led to pronounced weakness in the commodity currencies, it would be irresponsible to dismiss the rally in safe haven currencies like the Japanese Yen and US Dollar and the implications for pairs like GBPJPY and GBPUSD. GBPJPY Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (April 2018 to May 2019) (Chart 1)Between February 22 and May 7, GBPJPY prices traded in a range between 143.78 and 148.87. We've previously said that "the consolidation in GBPJPY price action may be akin to a coiling spring storing potential energy; the release of the kinetic energy, i.e. the breakout from the range, is worth waiting for." Now, on May 8, a breakout may be gathering pace in GBPJPY. The downside breakout in GBPJPY prices is developing as the broader range low at 143.78 has started to give way. Momentum has started to shift to the downside, with the price below the daily 8-, 13-, and 21-EMA envelope while both daily MACD and Slow Stochastics trend lower in bearish territory. The measured target for the GBPJPY range break would call for a 509-pip drop below 143.78, ultimately targeting 138.69. But before then, GBPJPY will have to contend with the late-February swing low at 141.01. To this end, traders will want to be on alert for a potential 'false breakout' scenario: if US stocks begin to trade higher and volatility levels subside, it's likely that GBPJPY would return back into its consolidation. IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPJPY Price Forecast (May 8, 2019) (Chart 2)
GBPJPY: Retail trader data shows 60.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.5 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 42.7% higher than yesterday and 17.3% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 30.2% higher than yesterday and 14.1% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPJPY prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPJPY-bearish contrarian trading bias. GBPUSD Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (April 2018 to May 2019) (Chart 3)
Since the bearish outside engulfing bar on June 14, 2018, GBPUSD has closed all but 14 days trading between 1.2660 and 1.3365 – approximately 94% of the past eleven-months within the range. In recent days, GBPUSD has been rejected at former uptrend support off the December 2018 low. That rejection has morphed into a deeper pullback for GBPUSD prices, with the May 3 bullish outside engulfing bar low – a critical support level as engulfing bars represent turning points in candlestick charting – coming into focus at 1.2986. Below 1.2986 and a bearish bias would be more appropriate for GBPUSD, and the odds would increase for GBPUSD prices to return back to their late-April low at 1.2866. Only if GBPUSD prices were able to climb through the May 3 (and monthly) high of 1.3177 would a bullish bias become appropriate. IG Client Sentiment Index: GBPUSD Price Forecast (May 8, 2019) (Chart 4)
GBPUSD: Retail trader data shows 61.8% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.61 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 4.5% higher than yesterday and 7.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.0% lower than yesterday and 17.0% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests GBPUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBPUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias. FX TRADING RESOURCESWhether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Gold Trading at Resistance; Crude Oil, DAX Charts & More Posted: 08 May 2019 07:18 AM PDT Hits: 12 Gold is trading at strong resistance and will need a good surge of buyers to push it through, price levels favor sellers for now. Crude oil is hanging out around a pair of support lines, 200-day included, if stocks keep selling off as they look like they could then more problems likely ahead for oil. Global stocks are showing some signs of further deterioration ahead, S&P 500 and DAX looking lower. Technical Highlights:
Make more informed decisions by checking out our trading forecasts and educational resources on the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Gold price trading at significant amounts of resistanceGold has become a tough handle lately with it bouncing around between support (August t-line) and resistance (bottom of wedge, soon t-line off Feb high). The ranging activity in-line with the general trend since the Feb high still favors lower prices at some point. However, until we see a drop below the August trend-line and pair of lows at 1266, the downside will be contained. A drop below 1266 should usher in some momentum for traders to feed on. A break above the top-side trend-line off the descending wedge may spark a bit of buying up to around 1310. Gold Price Daily Chart (resistance, range)Check out the Q2 Gold Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook. Crude oil bounce off support at risk of failingOn Monday, crude oil sold off with stocks and rebounded sharply from a confluence of support by way of the 200-day and rising slope from earlier this year. The reversal, however, is now at risk of breaking just as stocks did. A drop through the 59.98 low on Monday should have seller regaining control again. If the rising wedge in the S&P 500 continues to keep pressure on stocks then risk-off will help further a bearish trading bias. Check out the Q2 Crude Oil Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook. Crude Oil Daily Chart (watch reversal-day low)
S&P rising wedge broke, DAX looking toward t-line supportAs discussed earlier today, the convincing break out of the rising wedge has U.S. stocks on their heels. A decline to the 200-day around 2775, bottom of wedge at 2722 looks to be in the cards. S&P 500 Daily Chart (broken rising wedge)
Check out the Q2 Equities Forecast for the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook. The DAX was hammered yesterday and on that with U.S. stocks rolling downhill, bounces look like selling opportunities. It looks reasonable to target the rising underside channel line down in the vicinity of 11850/800. This could also have the April 3 gap tested and possibly filled as well down to 11754. It will take some work and time to turn the picture back to the upside DAX Daily Chart (looking for lower channel line)
Resources for Index & Commodity TradersWhether you are a new or an experienced trader, DailyFX has several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, and trading guides to help you improve trading performance. We also have a series of guides for those looking to trade specific markets, such as the S&P 500, Dow, DAX, gold, silver, crude oil, and copper. —Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Dow, S&P 500 Continue to Show Pressure After Last Week’s FOMC Posted: 08 May 2019 06:42 AM PDT Hits: 4 Dow, S&P 500 Talking Points:– Equity markets continue to show tendencies of a turn, and bearish signals for the risk trade continue to stack up in the aftermath of last week's FOMC rate decision. – Yen-strength has remained a fairly visible theme to go along with the premise of risk aversion, going along with lower US yields, nearby yield curve inversion, strength in Gold prices and a continuation of Yen-strength. – DailyFX Forecasts are published on a variety of currencies such as Gold, the US Dollar or the Euroand are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide. Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading GBPUSD? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Dow, S&P Show Tendencies of a Turn After FOMCLast October brought a tidal wave of change to US equity markets. After a smooth and comfortable ride higher over the prior two months, further recovering from a spill in stocks in Q1, equity traders awoke to a very different reality as the page turned into October. The generally sanguine backdrop leading into that period had allowed for continued rate hikes from the Fed as the bank looked to further normalize policy. Earlier, the FOMC had announced an exit from stimulus and then eventually a move in the other direction by allowing for balance sheet runoff. But as markets traded into Q4, the very operative question of 'how long might this go on' began to percolate, and in an off-handed remark early in October, FOMC Chair Jerome Powell implied that the bank had plans for a number of future rate hikes. Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) Eight-Hour Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley Market participants did not seem to like this very much. In short order, stocks began to turn and soon bearish price action began to pick up speed. By the time November rolled around, it had started to become clear that something was shifting; just very few knew exactly what. In response to this growing theme of uncertainty, FOMC members started to walk back those hawkish claims, adopting more of a wait-and-see approach rather than a committed stance of continued rate hikes. At the December FOMC rate decision, the bank held rates flat; but they also retained the forecast for two rate hikes in 2019 and, again, this was something that was not cheered by market participants, and stocks soon started to move back down. By the time Christmas Eve rolled around, the S&P 500 had set a fresh low a full 20% away from the highs that showed earlier in October. S&P 500 Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley What's happened after that was probably expected by very few. Stocks began to turn-higher in a rather aggressive manner after Christmas, and that theme of strength ran into January. As this was happening, the Fed continued to shift into a more dovish position, first telegraphed through media appearances with various FOMC members and then, eventually, at the March rate decision. At that meeting, the bank formerly cut the expectation for two rate hikes this year down to zero. This led into a pattern of bullish continuation in April as the S&P 500 continued to push-up to fresh all-time-highs. Those fresh highs held as the page turned into May, and last Wednesday's FOMC rate decision saw the bank hold rates again. This created a quick bearish move in the S&P that, at this point, has continued to build with a continuation of lower-lows and lower-highs. S&P 500 Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley What's the Driving Force?At this point, deduction would imply that the FOMC wasn't dovish enough at last week's rate decision, and this can be evidenced through a couple of different facts. First and foremost, those expectations for at least one rate cut in 2019 have dropped from a pre-FOMC read of around 68% to a current show of 57.9%. But, digging a bit deeper, that prior tonality of continued strength in stocks has been flipped on its head as those higher-highs and higher-lows leading into May price action has turned into lower-lows and lower-highs in the month of May. Dow Jones Industrial Average Two-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley Dow, S&P 500 StrategyAt this point, fresh bearish exposure could be a challenge in both the Dow and S&P 500. Both indices are trading around monthly lows and if this does turn out to be a mere pullback, traders may be facing the prospect of selling a fresh low. So, for establishing fresh bearish exposure, traders would likely want to wait for a signal of some kind. Current support in the S&P 500 is showing around the 38.2% retracement of the March-April bullish run, and this lines up with the early-April swing lows. This can open the door for bearish breakout potential or, on the other side of the matter, a pullback to resistance at prior support. This could be sought-out around the 2893-2903 area on the chart. S&P 500 Two-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley For bullish strategies in US stocks, or for those looking to fade this recent move of risk aversion – the Dow Jones Industrial Average may be a touch more attractive. I looked into this backdrop in yesterday's webinar, and prices are currently testing a big area of support on the chart around the 25,900 area. For this theme, traders can watch to ensure that this morning's low remains above yesterday's low, re-opening the door for a return of higher-highs and higher-lows after the FOMC-induced week-long pullback. Dow Jones Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley Other Signs of Potential DistressThis above observation of enhanced risk aversion is not relegated solely to stocks. As looked at in this week's technical forecast for Gold prices, buyers appear to have returned after last week's failed bearish breakout; keeping the door open for continued topside price action. In bond markets, US Treasury Yields have continued to fall and the yield curve inversion that's already showed twice this year (Three-Month T-Bills v/s 10 Year Treasury Notes), albeit on a temporary basis, appears close to showing again. In the 10-year specifically, yields are again back-below 2.5%, falling back into a descending channel that's been in play for much of the past 25 years. TNX (10-Year Treasury Yield) Monthly Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley In the FX world, this risk aversion has been showing via Yen-strength. This was a focal point in yesterday's webinar, looking at that scenario against a number of major currencies. And depending on how one would like to move forward, either by looking for risk aversion to continue or looking to fade the move, there's a setup on both sides. For fading the move, EUR/JPY has continued to hold support around a Fibonacci level at 123.10. This can, at the least, provide a cogent backdrop for risk management that can keep the door open for reversal plays. EUR/JPY Hourly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley On the other hand, for a continuation of risk aversion, AUD/JPY may be of attraction, as the pair has broken below 2019 support with a gap-lower to start this week. That gap quickly filled around the RBA rate decision, and bears returned for another push. If the themes of risk aversion do continue to increase, this can allow for continue pressure in AUD/JPY price action; and the zone around the 75.00-handle on the chart could be an attractive spot to look for that next element of support. AUD/JPY Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley To read more:Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| GBPUSD Suffers as Brexit Talks Risk Failing, PM May Pressured to Resign Posted: 08 May 2019 06:05 AM PDT Hits: 20 MARKET DEVELOPMENT – GBP Drops, RBNZ Cuts to Record Low Interest Rates DailyFX Q2 2019 FX Trading Forecasts GBP: The Pound is the notable underperformer across the board with GBPUSD testing 1.3000 support. Much of the weakness had stemmed from reports that talks between the government and the Labour party are looking set to fail, which in turn reduces the likelihood that the Brexit deadlock will be broken anytime soon. Alongside this, the pressure continues to mount for Theresa May to announce her departure plans by today or face the risk of being ousted (potentially via the 1922 committee altering leadership election rules). As such, with the risks of PM May being replaced rising, pressure remains on the downside for the Pound and given that the most likely alternatives according to betting markets are potentially a harder Brexiteer than PM May (see here) upside seems limited for GBP. Key support situated at 1.2890. NZD: The RBNZ lowered interest rates to a record low 1.5% overnight in what was a 50/50 rate decision. The Kiwi came under significant pressure initially, hitting a low of 0.6530 before retracing much of the losses. While the central bank opened the further easing, the decision itself had been based on the consensus of the committee and not unanimous, while the RBNZ Governor noted that the outlook going forward looks more balanced than prior to the meeting, raising questions as to whether this is a one and done cut. Nonetheless with the risk environment is continuing to deteriorate amid the rising US/China trade tensions, which in turn keeps the Kiwi on the backfoot. EUR: The Euro has been relatively steady throughout the session, oscillating around the 1.12 handle as EURGBP buying keeps the currency supported. Elsewhere, German Industrial output had surprised to the upside (0.5% vs. Exp. -0.5%) which in turn boosted sentiment for the Euro. However, with the overhang of rising trade tensions between the US and China, gains have been somewhat marginal for the Euro. Gold: As the trade tensions continue to weigh on equity markets, gold prices have been among the beneficiaries with the precious metal making a break above $1287 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) to test the descending trendline from the 2019 peak. Source reports this morning noted that China had backtracked on much of the legal issues throughout the text of proposed US trade agreement. However, despite this, the general consensus is that an agreement will be reached in the near-term. Source: Thomson Reuters, DailyFX DailyFX Economic Calendar: – North American Releases
How to use IG Client Sentiment to Improve Your Trading WHAT'S DRIVING MARKETS TODAY
— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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