Forex analysis review |
- EUR/GBP approaching resistance, potential reversal!
- USD/CAD approaching a key support, potential for a bounce!
- EUR/JPY bounced off key support, further rise possible!
- The dollar is waiting for a storm
- Oil prices fall, trade war between the United States and China may affect demand
- Yuan sharply tumbles against the background of new trading problems, other Asian currencies do not feel better
- The yen will rise while the world is facing a trade war
- China's bond market is under threat of a massive default
- EUR/USD correction: the market is nervous on the eve of Friday's data
- EUR/USD 5 Star Signal | Fundamental + Technical Analysis
- May 9, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- May 9, 2019 : EUR/USD Offering a valid SELL opportunity around 1.1235.
- EURUSD bulls try to break above the triangle pattern
- Gold price still below major resistance
- Bitcoin analysis for May 09, 2019
- GBP/USD analysis for May 09, 2019
- EUR./USD analysis for May 09, 2019
- BITCOIN Analysis for May 9, 2019
- Technical analysis of AUD/USD for May 09, 2019
- Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 09, 2019
- GBP/USD: plan for the American session on May 9. Divergence can help buyers return to the market
- EUR/USD: plan for the American session on May 9. A long pause in the channel will lead to a sharp movement
- Trading Plan EURUSD 05/09/2019
- USDCAD: Canadian dollar and oil may continue to decline
- Simplified wave analysis and forecast for AUD/USD on May 9
| EUR/GBP approaching resistance, potential reversal! Posted: 09 May 2019 07:01 PM PDT
Price is approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price to our first support level. Entry : 0.8587 Why it's good : horizontal overlap resistance, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement Stop Loss : 0.8679 Why it's good : horizontal swing high resistance Take Profit : 0.8587
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| USD/CAD approaching a key support, potential for a bounce! Posted: 09 May 2019 06:57 PM PDT Price is approaching a key support at 1.3424 where it could potentially bounce to its resistance at 1.3455. Entry : 1.3424 Why it's good : horizontal swing low support, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension Stop Loss : 1.34030 Why it's good : horizontal swing low support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement Take Profit : 1.3455 Why it's good : 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback resistance
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| EUR/JPY bounced off key support, further rise possible! Posted: 09 May 2019 06:54 PM PDT
EURJPY bounced off its support where it could rise further Entry:122.52 Why it's good :100% Fibonacci extension*2, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement Stop Loss : 120.84 Why it's good :50% fibonacci retracement, 100% Fibonacci extension, horizontal swing low support Take Profit : 124.332 Why it's good: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement horizontal swing high resistance
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| The dollar is waiting for a storm Posted: 09 May 2019 04:26 PM PDT Markets are not hiding their concern about the new round of aggravation of the trade conflict between the largest economies in the world. Currency traders are trying to understand what exactly the US president wanted to say through Twitter. It is possible that Donald Trump's recent emotional comments are more than an improvement in the trading position in anticipation of a possible increase in duties on Chinese goods on Friday. In addition, there are parallels with criticism of the US President against Jerome Powell. D. Trump requires the Fed to lower rates. But why? The economy, as what the United States is trying to present, is very strong. The central bank ignores the tweets of the White House's host. In the case of the Fed, D. Trump has his hands tied, he has no right to dismiss the head of the regulator or change the composition of the FOMC. He can afford to let more in foreign policy. It is impossible to refer to the weakness of the US economy. It is difficult to imagine when its GDP has accelerated to 3.2% and unemployment has fallen to a half-century low. China, whose share of exports in nominal GDP is 18.3%, and the share of supplies to America - 3.5%, is more interested than anyone else in ending trade disputes. As for the Americans, their position will be unenviable if the conflict with Beijing continues, so Washington does not need to deceived itself by exaggerating its abilities to survive the trade war painlessly. The introduction of tariffs on all Chinese imports will hurt consumers, deduct 0.3 pp from GDP and slow it down to 2% by the end of the year. That's not all. Financial performance of US companies will deteriorate, stock indices will fall. The fall in the growth of world trade and the economy contributes to the strengthening of the dollar, which the White House does not need at all. It is unprofitable for the parties to continue the conflict, and the deal may eventually take place. If you look at volatility's mediocre growth in forex, then we can assume that the hope for a peaceful settlement of differences remains. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen rose to a 3-month high against the dollar on Thursday. This suggests that investors are losing their nerves. The main victims of the escalation of the US-China conflict were the Australian dollar, the US dollar and the offshore Chinese yuan. Meanwhile, in the past, the greenback benefited from the growing scale of trade problems. EUR/USD does not want to go far from the level of $1.12, trading in a narrow range. Perhaps the outcome of the next round of talks in Washington will trigger it.  |
| Oil prices fall, trade war between the United States and China may affect demand Posted: 09 May 2019 04:22 PM PDT Oil is getting cheaper, as the growing trade battle between the United States and China outweighed the upward pressure due to an unexpected decline in US oil reserves. Brent traded at $69.72 per barrel, losing 65 cents, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - at $61.43 per barrel, down 69 cents. Concerns about the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China are putting pressure on the oil market. They darken the prospects for global growth and, consequently, the demand for oil. US President Donald Trump said that China will face stiff tariffs if an agreement is not reached. On the other hand, the oil market remains constructive, as the global balance is tightened, and the potential risks from the supply side still exist. Prices received some support due to signs of a supply shortage amid a reduction in production in the OPEC+ deal. Recall that both Brent and WTI grew by more than 30 percent this year. Supplies are also tightened by US sanctions against OPEC members - Venezuela and Iran. An unexpected drop in US oil reserves also constraints the decline in prices. Barclays raised its price forecasts for Brent and WTI in the third quarter by $4 per barrel, to $74 and $67, respectively, in anticipation of tighter market conditions. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 09 May 2019 04:18 PM PDT Earlier this week, US President Donald Trump shocked the markets with threats to raise import tariffs on Chinese goods from Friday. The volume of short positions in the Chinese yuan was at its highest since mid-December. The increase in yuan rates was observed amid expectations that the central bank may suspend the implementation of mitigation measures after the release of data on the recovery of China's economy. Now the situation is beginning to change. Market participants demonstrate a "bearish" attitude towards the South Korean won, as a whole series of weak domestic economic data cast doubt on the outlook for the local economy. Data released late last month showed that South Korea's economy contracted unexpectedly in the first quarter, showing its worst performance since the global financial crisis, with exports falling again in April. Short positions for the worst Asian currency this year were the highest since January 2016. Risk appetite also suffered as a result of the rocket tests conducted by North Korea earlier this week. Short bets on the Taiwanese dollar also rose to the highest level since the end of February. As in South Korea, Taiwan's economy is heavily dependent on technology-oriented exports and suffers from lower demand for such products. Most Asian currencies are in a difficult situation, as factory activity on the continent still has a tenuous ground: global demand remains subdued, and the incentive measures launched by China have not yet demonstrated their full strength. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| The yen will rise while the world is facing a trade war Posted: 09 May 2019 04:05 PM PDT The yen is rapidly going up in the escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China. The currency has already updated a 3-month high against the dollar, as investors choose a safe haven, fearing that the friction between the two largest economies in the world may escalate. Two days of trade negotiations will begin in Washington on Thursday, and traders are concerned about whether the Chinese and American negotiators will be able to save the deal in order to prevent further tariff increases. In general, fluctuations in foreign exchange markets, despite the new attack in the trade war, were rather muffled, but the yen's jump, which is in demand during times of political instability, suggests that investors are beginning to lose their nerves. The main "victims" of rising tensions were the Australian and US dollars, as well as the offshore Chinese yuan. At the same time, the prospects are bleak. The parties are unlikely to agree on a trade deal for these two days and, most likely, the United States will impose tariffs on Friday. It is worth noting that, unlike previous episodes of escalation, when the dollar benefited, the current threat to raise tariffs on Chinese imports prompted market strategists to focus on the devastating impact on Washington. Prospects for the conflict's escalation led to a rise in the yen, which will continue in the coming days. The currency gained 0.3 percent against the dollar, to 109,640 yen, rising by more than 1 percent this month. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, traders have further increased net long dollar rates, including against the yen. D. Trump said that China "broke the deal" reached at the talks and vowed to introduce new tariffs if Beijing "does not stop deceiving US representatives". The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| China's bond market is under threat of a massive default Posted: 09 May 2019 03:54 PM PDT According to some analysts, the current year could bring a default of $13 trillion to the Chinese bond market. It can be the most ambitious in the history of trading, experts warned. According to Bloomberg, in the first four months of 2019, Chinese companies announced a default on domestic bonds worth 39.2 billion yuan ($ 5.8 billion). This is 3.4 times more than in the same period of 2018. According to experts, at present, the rate of growth of defaults in the PRC is more than three times higher than that in 2016, when defaults occurred in the first half of the year. If the current situation persists, this year will bring a new, larger-scale default, Bloomberg said. Chinese authorities continue to encourage banks to accelerate lending to the private sector, especially small and medium-sized companies. On Monday, May 6, the central bank of China weakened a number of rules of mandatory reserves for creditors. At the same time, the Chinese authorities are reducing shadow banking, analysts emphasize. As a result, the business lacks funding, which leads to a risky policy of bond loans. Experts explain the surge in default, which began at the end of 2017 and continues to this day, precisely by this reduction in funding. Three years ago, in 2016, Chinese authorities began to reduce excess production capacity, which affected the credit markets. According to analysts of the largest bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the level of credit risks in China is much higher than in other countries. There are very high credit stress, as evidenced by a number of situations where companies could not make the planned payments on the bonds, but subsequently completely redeemed them and prevented default. However, this was done almost at the last moment, experts say. According to analysts, the difficulty lies in the fact that defaults do not provide complete information about China's credit problems. Borrowers avoid strict defaults by combining payments on bonds during grace periods; however, a number of issuers receive assistance from the authorities. However, this does not rescue it from financial problems that are destructive for the country's economy, analysts sum up. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD correction: the market is nervous on the eve of Friday's data Posted: 09 May 2019 03:38 PM PDT The dollar index shows increased volatility today: at the beginning of the US session, it dropped sharply - in just an hour, the figure dipped from 97.45 to 97.05 points, reflecting the dollar's devaluation throughout the market. This dynamic was due to several reasons - against the background of the release of weak macroeconomic statistics and the sharp fall of the stock market, which pulled the US currency behind it. At the same time, traders actually ignored data on the US trade balance, although the negative balance of trade between the United States and China dropped to the lowest possible level in the last five years. The EUR/USD bulls took advantage of the situation and attempted to attack the resistance level of 1.1220 (the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart). And although the buyers impulsively pierced this target, rising to the level of 1.1250, they hardly manage to stay above the designated level. But even such a price spurt with a subsequent pullback indicates the failure of bulls of the pair. After all, in order to develop a downward trend, sellers need to go below 1.1120 (the bottom line of the BB indicator on D1) to confirm the priority of the downward movement. Otherwise, the bulls at every opportunity will try to return the pair to the price range of 1.1220-1.1310 with subsequent growth targets in the region of the 14th figure. In this context, today's growth looks quite significant, despite the inability of bulls to consolidate above the Bollinger Bands midline. After all, we should not forget that today, the EUR/USD pair showed correctional growth against the background of unresolved (and, apparently, aggravating) trade conflict between the US and China, as well as against the background of uncertain prospects for Brexit. In other words, the single currency shows character even in the face of rising anti-risk sentiment, while the dollar easily surrenders to the conquered positions, demonstrating its vulnerability in the run-up to tomorrow's release on the rise in US inflation. However, today there were other reasons for the greenback's devaluation. Thus, the US producer price index (which is an early signal of changes in inflation trends) came out in the "red zone", showing a slowdown. On a monthly basis, the indicator dropped to 0.2% (after rising 0.6% in March), and in annual terms - to 2.2% (with a growth forecast of 2.3%). Today's release has become another alarming signal on the eve of the publication of key data on inflationary growth in the United States. Let me remind you that last Friday there was a rather weak growth in wages. Contrary to the positive forecasts of most analysts, the indicator remained at the level of March: in monthly terms, it rose by 0.2%, and in annual terms grew by 3.2 percent (which is also worse than forecast). In addition, the inflation rate preferred by the Fed (the price index for the main expenditures on personal consumption - PCE) increased by only 1.6% y/y compared to March - this is the weakest growth rate in the last 14 months. In February, the indicator was also at a rather weak level - 1.7%. And here again it is worth recalling the May Fed meeting, at the end of which Jerome Powell commented on the slowdown in inflation growth. He suggested that this trend is due to temporary factors, and therefore, key indicators will soon show signs of recovery. Although according to the general opinion of the Fed members, which was set forth in the text of the accompanying statement, the slowdown in inflationary growth is systemic and sustainable. In other words, Powell expressed a more optimistic assessment regarding the prospects for rising inflation (unlike most Fed members), and this fact was in favor of the dollar. But such a "victory" for dollar bulls is shaky. Inflationary indicators continue to disappoint the market, and tomorrow's release of the US Consumer Price Index can serve as a quintessence of this process. If this indicator comes out worse than expected, then the Fed will find it difficult to justify the current trend by "temporary factors" - the slowdown in inflation indicators will clearly be systemic. That is why today's publication of the producer price index caused such a violent market reaction. Traders were worried that tomorrow's release would also be worse than expected, and this fact would soften the rhetoric of Fed members and Jerome Powell himself. From a technical point of view, on the daily chart, the pair is on the middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator - so to speak, "at a crossroads". As already noted above, EUR/USD bulls need to gain a foothold above the 1.1220 mark in order to subsequently qualify for the 13th figure. For bears, couples have a more difficult task: as long as sellers do not consolidate below the 1.11 target, the downward dynamics will be a big question. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD 5 Star Signal | Fundamental + Technical Analysis Posted: 09 May 2019 12:31 PM PDT
Fundamental: The prospect of budget conflict with EU is causing the currency slide as Italy's leaders attacked new deficit forecasts by the European Union, setting up prospect of a renewed budget conflict with the bloc. That has lifted premium over German bunds to the highest since February and is keeping the euro near its lowest in 2 years. Meanwhile, the decline is also fueled by the dimming global outlook as trade tensions escalated between US and China and the flare-up of political risk ahead of European Parliamentary elections this month. Elsewhere, new US sanctions imposed on Iran's industrial metals sector is also adding bearish pressure to the currency as Trump warns Europe to stop doing business with Iran and vowed to squeeze Tehran further until it fundamentally alters its conduct. On the other hand, Iran threatened to enrich their uranium again beyond agreed limits unless Europe throws them a lifeline, adding on to the negative risk sentiment. While some investors seek solace in the delay of the auto tariffs decisions while EU and Japan continues talks with US, it is likely to be short lived. Technical analysis: Sell entry: 1.1227 Why it's good: Price is seeing strong descending resistance pushing it down and that level has nice retracement, extension and overlap resistance. Take profit : 1.1144 Why it's good: That's a nice swing low level and a 61.8% profit taking extension level. Stop loss: 1.1277 Why it's good: Gives us enough breathing space and is also a nice pullback resistance + 76.4% Fibonacci retracement. Price would need to break the descending resistance line to even come close to this. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| May 9, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 09 May 2019 10:21 AM PDT
On March 29, the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) demonstrated significant bullish rejection. This brought the GBPUSD pair again towards the price zone of (1.3160-1.3180) where the upper limit of the depicted bearish channel as well as the backside of the depicted broken uptrend line demonstrated significant bearish rejection. Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850. Last week, a bullish pullback was executed towards the price levels around 1.3035 - 1.3070 (50% - 61.8% Fibonacci levels) where temporary bearish rejection was demonstrated. However, by the end of Friday's consolidations, significant bullish momentum was initiated around 1.3000. Hence, a bullish breakout above 1.3075 was temporarily achieved. Temporarily, short-term outlook turns to become bullish until bearish breakdown below 1.3035 (50% Fibonacci level) was achieved earlier Yesterday. Currently, The price zone of 1.3030-1.3060 constitutes a prominent supply-zone to be watched for bearish entries. On the other hand, H4 bullish breakout above 1.3075 enhances a quick bullish visit towards 1.3150 and 1.3200 where the most recent top was established on May 3. Trade Recommendations: Conservative traders should be waiting for signs of bearish reversal around the depicted price levels (1.3035-1.3070) as a valid SELL signal. T/p levels to be located around 1.2950 and 2880. Any bullish breakout above 1.3080 invalidates this bearish scenario. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| May 9, 2019 : EUR/USD Offering a valid SELL opportunity around 1.1235. Posted: 09 May 2019 10:10 AM PDT
Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200. This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15. Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci). For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23. Currently, the price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection. On April 24-26, another bullish head and shoulders pattern was being demonstrated around 1.1140 on the H4 chart. Moreover, the market has failed to sustain bearish pressure below the price Level of 1.1175. That's why, conservative traders were suggested to wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1230-1.1250 where a valid SELL entry can be offered. Trade recommendations : Conservative traders can look for a valid SELL entry anywhere around the price level of 1.1235. S/L should be placed around 1.1260. Initial Target levels should be located around 1.1200, 1.1175 and 1.1140. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EURUSD bulls try to break above the triangle pattern Posted: 09 May 2019 09:53 AM PDT EURUSD made a sharp move higher towards 1.1250 and above the short-term triangle pattern we mentioned yesterday. But price fell back inside the triangle. So far we consider this as a fake break out which is a bearish sign.
Red line - support Black line - medium-term resistance EURUSD has resistance at 1.1230-1.1260 as we mentioned yesterday. Price has still been trading below it and has not yet broken above it. So trend remains bearish. Bulls need to hold above 1.1175 which is short-term support and then try another move higher above 1.1260. This will open the way for a move higher towards the black trend line resistance at 1.1310. Holding above 1.1175 and breaking above 1.1270 will begin a new sequence of higher highs and higher lows and this could imply that a major low is in. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Gold price still below major resistance Posted: 09 May 2019 09:49 AM PDT Gold price is back at $1,285 just below the important resistance trend line from $1,347 and the short-term high at $1,290. Gold bulls still have hopes for an upward break out but another rejection will ruin their plans.
Blue line - RSI support Green rectangle - major confluence area Gold price is back inside the green area just below the red downward sloping resistance trend line. As long as the RSI holds above the blue trend line and price is above $1,278, bulls still have hopes for more upside. But a break below $1,278 will decrease dramatically the chances for a move higher. Next important support is at $1,266. Breaking it will open the way for a move below $1,250. A break above $1,290 will open the way for a move towards $1,300 and higher. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Bitcoin analysis for May 09, 2019 Posted: 09 May 2019 08:48 AM PDT Bitcoin has been trading neutral but the fake breakout of the resistance is present, which is sign of the potential weakness.
Purple rectangle – Resistance $6.271 Green rectangle – Support $5.758 Green lines – Upward channel – resistance on the test We found the fake breakout of the yesterday's high at the price of $6.271, which is clear sign that buyers got exhausted and that weakness is very possible. Since that price went higher above the balance and failed, the downward target becomes the opposite extreme of the balance, which is the level of $5.758. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD analysis for May 09, 2019 Posted: 09 May 2019 08:41 AM PDT GBP/USD has been trading upwards. We got the fake breakout of the yesterday's low and the rally is favorable.
Red horizontal line – Support 1.2984 Yellow horizontal line – Resistance 1.3078 Yellow horizontal line – Resistance 1.1113 We found the fake breakout of the yesterday's low at the price of 1.2984, which is clear sign that sellers got exhausted and that rally is very possible. Most recently, there is the breakout of the supply trendline, which even adds more potential strength on the GBP. Another bullish confirmation is bullish divergence on the Stochastic oscillator. Watch for buying opportunities with the targets at 1.3078 and 1.3113. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR./USD analysis for May 09, 2019 Posted: 09 May 2019 08:34 AM PDT EUR/USD has been trading upwards. WE got the breakout of the important resistance and we expect more upside. Careful with any selling...
Purple rectangle – Resistance 1.1216 Purple rectangle – Resistance 1.1262 Blue line – Middle of Keltner Channel EMA Yellow horizontal line – Support 1.1165 Important breakout of the the key resistance at the price of 1.1218. The break is even stronger cause it is break of the 5-day balance. The strong momentum is on the upside and you should watch only for buying opportunities. The upward target is set at the price of 1.1265. Support level is seen at the price of 1.1173. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| BITCOIN Analysis for May 9, 2019 Posted: 09 May 2019 07:24 AM PDT Bitcoin managed to sustain the momentum above $6,000 which has been tested with some correctional declines. One thing that is obvious from yesterday's events is that in this market cycle, Bitcoin appears to be immune to bad news. The bulls carried on trading and BTC surged above the psychological level of $6,000. When the news broke that Binance had been hacked, thus hurting the crypto market with a trade volume of $40 million, Bitcoin remained unaffected. Later, it sank about 3 percent or so below $5,800, but immediately started to recover and rebounded to $6,000 over the next few hours. The aftermath the cyberattack on Binance has left the industry confounded. On the one hand, the price of Bitcoin remains steady. On the other hand, according to reports, no user accounts were affected to derive the market sentiment away. The price is currently being held by the dynamic level of 20 EMA after the recent retracement from $6,200. As the price holds above $6,000 with a daily close, further upward pressure with a target towards $6,300 is expected in the coming days. SUPPORT: 5,850, 6,000 RESISTANCE: 6,300, 6,500 BIAS: BULLISH MOMENTUM: NON-VOLATILE
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| Technical analysis of AUD/USD for May 09, 2019 Posted: 09 May 2019 06:19 AM PDT Overview: The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 0.7046 and 0.7168. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. The major support is seen at the level of 0.7046, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.7046 and 0.7168. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.7112 towards thae first resistance level of 0.7168 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.7168 and further to the level of 0.7290. The level of 0.7389 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7389. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support levels of 0.7112 and 0.7046, this scenario may be invalidated. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis of GBP/USD for May 09, 2019 Posted: 09 May 2019 06:12 AM PDT The GBP/USD pair continues to move upwards from the level of 1.2988. Last week, the pair rose from the level of 1.2865 to a top around 1.3184 but it rebounded to set around the spot of 1.2988. Today, the first resistance level is seen at 1.3060 followed by 1.3184, while daily support 1 is seen at 1.3184 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). According to the previous events, the GBP/USD pair is still moving between the levels of 1.2988 and 1.3184; so we expect a range of 196 pips in coming days. Furthermore, if the trend is able to break out through the first resistance level at 1.3060, we should see the pair climbing towards the double top (1.3184) to test it. Therefore, buy above the level of 1.2988 with the first target at 1.3060 in order to test the daily resistance 1 and further to 1.3184. Also, it might be noted that the level of 1.3184 is a good place to take profit because it will form a double top. On the other hand, in case a reversal takes place and the GBP/USD pair breaks through the support level of 1.2988, a further decline to 1.2865 can occur which would indicate a bearish market. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| GBP/USD: plan for the American session on May 9. Divergence can help buyers return to the market Posted: 09 May 2019 05:58 AM PDT To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: The bulls are working out the divergence on the MACD indicator in the area of the morning support level of 1.2980, and while the trade is conducted above this range, we can expect the end of the bearish trend. The main task of buyers for the second half of the day is to return to the resistance of 1.3028. Only then can we expect an upward correction in the area of the maximum of 1.3074 and 1.3125, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the case of a repeated test of a minimum of 1.2980, it may breakdown and the continuation of the fall of the pound. In this scenario, the best way to return to long positions is to rebound from the levels of 1.2934 and 1.2905. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: Bears will try to break below the support of 1.2980, which will lead to a new wave of short positions in the trend with access to the lows of 1.2934 and 1.2905, where I recommend fixing the profits. Also, a good signal to sell in the second half of the day will be an unsuccessful consolidation above the resistance of 1.3028, but I recommend to open short positions immediately on the rebound only after updating the maximum of 1.3074. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is below 30 and 50 moving averages, indicating a bearish advantage. Bollinger Bands The volatility of the indicator has decreased, which does not give signals on entering the market. Description of indicators
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| Posted: 09 May 2019 05:58 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD, you need: The situation has not changed in the absence of important fundamental statistics for the eurozone. In the afternoon, a number of reports on the US economy are expected, which may lead to the exit of EUR/USD from the channel. The main goal remains the range of 1.1214, the consolidation of which will lead EUR/USD to the area of last week's maximum to 1.1260 and maintain the upward potential with the test levels of 1.1282 and 1.1301, where I recommend fixing the profit. In the event of a further decline in the euro, it is best to return to long positions after correction down from support at 1.1170, provided that a false breakdown is formed, or to rebound from a larger area of 1.1138. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need: Bears hold the pair under the resistance of 1.1214. While trading is below this level, the pressure on the euro will remain, which can lead to a decrease and consolidation under the support level of 1.1170, the breakdown of which will push EUR/USD to the minimum area of 1.138 and 1.112, where I recommend fixing the profit. With the growth of the euro above the resistance of 1.1214 in the second half of the day, against the background of good statistics for the US, it is best to open short positions to rebound from a maximum of 1.1260, but the intermediate resistance may be the level of 1.1240. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which continues to indicate the lateral nature of the market. Bollinger Bands The volatility of the indicator has decreased, which does not give signals on entering the market. Description of indicators
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| Trading Plan EURUSD 05/09/2019 Posted: 09 May 2019 01:55 AM PDT EURUSD is preparing for a strong move. Perhaps, the trigger will be reports on inflation in the United States on Wednesday and Thursday at 15:30 Moscow time. Technically, the euro looks ready to break through the levels of 1.1220 and 1.1270 and the big trend to the top. We are ready to buy from the level of 1.1270. We are ready to sell from the level of 1.1130.  |
| USDCAD: Canadian dollar and oil may continue to decline Posted: 09 May 2019 01:54 AM PDT The Canadian dollar made several attempts to strengthen against the US dollar yesterday but eventually gave up. A good report on the bookmarks of new homes in Canada, which grew sharply, provided only temporary support. According to data from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp, the number of bookmarks of new homes in April 2019 increased compared to the same period last year to 235,460 homes. The March data was revised to 191,981. Economists had expected the number of bookmarks to be 195,500 in April. Most of the growth was due to faster construction of apartment buildings such as condominiums. Thus, the bookmarks of apartment buildings increased by 29.6%, to 175,732, and single-family homes by 6%, to 44,655. The moving average for six months rose to 206,103 from 202,420 in March. As for the technical picture of the USDCAD pair, further growth is likely to continue after the breakthrough of the major resistance of 1.3495, to which the bulls are gradually selected from the beginning of this month. The breakdown of 1.3495 will give the pair a new upward momentum, which will lead to the renewal of highs in the area of 1.3540 and 1.3610. Bullish momentum can be formed today in the second half of the day when a number of reports on the American economy will be released. If the data turns out to be worse than economists' forecasts, it is likely that the pressure on the USDCAD pair will return, which will collapse the trading instrument in the region of the lower border of the side channel of 1.3410. Oil quotes yesterday rose only slightly after data indicating that commercial US oil reserves declined, contrary to analysts' forecasts, which maintains the further potential development of the downward trend. According to a report from the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, a week from April 27 to May 3, oil reserves fell by 4 million barrels to 466.6 million barrels, while analysts expected reserves to grow only by 200,000 barrels. A decrease was also noted in gasoline stocks. Thus, stocks unexpectedly fell by 596,000 barrels, to 226.2 million barrels, while analysts had expected reserves to decline by 1.3 million barrels. Distillate stocks also fell by 159,000 barrels to 125.6 million barrels, compared with analysts, who expected a reduction in reserves of 1.3 million barrels. The utilization of refining capacity decreased by 0.3 percentage points, to 88.9%. As for the technical picture of oil, a triangle is expected to break through. Going beyond $62 a barrel for WTI mark will lead to a new wave of growth in the area of $62.85 and $63.85. When the lower boundary of the triangle breaks out at 61.20, the pressure on oil will continue, leading to a renewal of the minimum of 60.35 and 58.15. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Simplified wave analysis and forecast for AUD/USD on May 9 Posted: 09 May 2019 01:54 AM PDT The unfinished wave of the H4 scale on the Aussie chart is downward, dated January 31. The last wave of the short-term wave that is relevant today is starting from April 17, completing the larger model. In its structure on May 7, a correctional part (B) was formed. Forecast: The decline that began in 3 days is preparing the basis for the final price breakthrough. Today, the general flat mood is expected. A decline is likely in the morning. The beginning of the price rise is worth the wait either at the end of the day or tomorrow. Recommendations: Today, sales are possible in the form of "scalping" before the first reversal signals appear. Next, the supporters of the intraday can try buying a pair with the potential in the middle session move. For longer trades, it is recommended to refrain from trading and look for sell signals at the end of the upcoming rollback. Resistance zones: - 0.7020 / 0.7050 Support zones: - 0.6960 / 0.6930 Explanations to the figures: Waves in the simplified wave analysis consist of 3 parts (A – B – C). The last incomplete wave is analyzed. Zones show the areas most likely to turn. The arrows indicate the wave marking by the method used by the author, the formed background with a solid background, and the expected movements are dotted. Note: The wave algorithm does not take into account the duration of tool movements over time. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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