Forex News 24 |
- This Pharma Stock Could Double, Says Analyst
- EURUSD in Spotlight Ahead of EZ Inflation, US NFP
- Looking at Price Action Around 124.76
- May 2, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- Crude Oil Price Breakdown Nears April Low, USDCAD Outlook Lifted
- Retailers Warn of Impact from Strong US Dollar
- NFP Price Action Setups post-FOMC: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD
- USD/CAD at Weekly High as Loonie Dives
- The New Hot Pot Stock for Summer 2019
- Should Stock Market Investors Listen to the ’Sell in May and Go Away’ Anomaly?
| This Pharma Stock Could Double, Says Analyst Posted: 02 May 2019 02:41 PM PDT Hits: 8 Investors continue to fret over Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments
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| EURUSD in Spotlight Ahead of EZ Inflation, US NFP Posted: 02 May 2019 02:40 PM PDT Hits: 9 EURUSD CURRENCY VOLATILITY – TALKING POINTS
EURUSD overnight implied volatility appears relatively high at 6.17 percent ahead of Eurozone inflation and US nonfarm payroll data due for release tomorrow. This compares to the average of 4.93 percent during April and 5.69 percent year-to-date. FOREX MARKET IMPLIED VOLATILITY AND TRADING RANGES
Spot EURUSD trades below the 1.12 handle once again after the latest Fed meeting revealed a less-dovish tilt which casted a shadow over bullish prospects for this currency pair. With GDP data, FOMC and Powell presser risk now in the rearview mirror, forex traders will likely turn to high-impact economic indicators expected during Friday's session to reassess positioning biases. FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR – EURUSD
Visit the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive list of upcoming economic events and data releases affecting the global markets. Eurozone year-over-year core CPI for April is forecasted to cross the wires at 1.0 percent. If this inflation measure undershoots estimates, EURUSD could slide further seeing that a soft number would likely underpin the ECB's easing bias. On the other hand, a better than expected reading could help the Euro recover from its recent downside. As for the greenback, another robust US jobs report has potential of reigniting the long-prevailing EURUSD downtrend. Conversely, a materially worse-than-expected number could jeopardize the dollar's recent advance. Other economic indicators worth watching out of the US included the change in unemployment rate, average hourly earnings and the ISM Services Index. EURUSD PRICE CHART: 4-HOUR TIME FRAME (MARCH 20, 2019 TO MAY 02, 2019)
Judging by EURUSD overnight implied volatility, forex traders might expect the currency pair to trade between 1.1145 and 1.1217 with a 68 percent statistical probability. However, bearish technical indicators could pose headwinds to EURUSD upside. For example, support-turned-resistance at the 1.12 handle and the 23.6 percent Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the high and low recorded on March 20 and April 26 respectively might hinder spot prices from advancing. EURUSD TRADER SENTIMENT PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (NOVEMBER 05, 2018 TO MAY 02, 2019)
Check out IG's Client Sentiment here for more detail on the bullish and bearish biases of EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, Gold, Bitcoin and S&P500. According to client positioning data from IG, 54.9 percent of EURUSD traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.22 to 1. While the number of traders net long is 3.5 percent higher than yesterday and 19.5 percent lower than last week, the number of traders net-short is 6.7 percent higher than yesterday and 45.4 percent higher than last week. TRADING RESOURCESWhether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has several free resources available to help you: a comprehensive education center, a proprietary indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; informativetrading guides and forecasts; analyticalwebinars held daily, and much more. – Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX – Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Looking at Price Action Around 124.76 Posted: 02 May 2019 02:31 PM PDT Hits: 6 EUR/JPY Technical Analysis: Looking at Price Action Around 124.76 EUR/JPY Technical Strategy
See the Q2 Euro forecast to learn what is likely to drive price action through mid-year! See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a comprehensive look at all the week's data releases. EUR/JPY Daily Price Chart (May 2018 – May 02, 2019) Closing above or below EUR/JPY 124.76 – What Does This Mean? Since the beginning of March, EUR/JPY cubed efforts to mount a more productive bull trend with a high set on March 1st and a lower high printing on Mar 20th – which then prompted a drop back to and three-month low's on March 28. In its most recent bullish efforts, a EUR/JPY rebound failed 3 times between April 12th through the 18th to overtake 126.80, effectively capping any productive positive momentum. On Thursday April 18th EUR/JPY price broke below short-term support at 126.05 and proceeded to drop all the way back to 124.07 (lowest price in 4 weeks). On Monday April 29th, a short-term positive break occurred with the move through 126.76, however, bullish momentum has proven even more restrictive with this recent phase as 126.76 remains far out of reach while RSI has dropped from 46 to 42. To Sum up: A close below 124.76 would support a bearish bias with the first significant downside support likely at 124.24 (the April swing low), while a zone between 124.42 and 124.38 could further slow the market along the way. What if EUR/JPY closes above 124.76? In this case, bullish sentiment would suggest a pull towards 125.39 contingent on prices clearing resistance levels at 125.07 and 125.30 first. EUR/JPY Prices 2Hour Chart (May 02, 2019)
EUR/JPY price today broke a short-term uptrend line originating from April 26th low that fell around 124.71. The 124.47 support zone remains and the 124.09 would be the extreme of short-term bearish intent as the aforementioned reversal's low. Note the 124.76 level mentioned above has changed from support to resistance. Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi Just getting started?See our beginners' guide for FX traders Having trouble with your trading strategy?Here's the #1 mistake that traders make Can you get gilded from fx trading? The response is if you go from river forex, and sluttish forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is distribution in forex 1 greenback river, netdania forex, verify brimful welfare of the forex system indicators, and inaction the direction fx strategy. We instrument follow win all.
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| May 2, 2019 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 02 May 2019 02:10 PM PDT Hits: 6 Few weeks ago, a bullish Head and Shoulders reversal pattern was demonstrated around 1.1200. This enhanced further bullish advancement towards 1.1300-1.1315 (supply zone) where significant bearish rejection was demonstrated on April 15. Short-term outlook turned to become bearish towards 1.1280 (61.8% Fibonacci) then 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci). For Intraday traders, the price zone around 1.1235 (78.6% Fibonacci) stood as a temporary demand area which paused the ongoing bearish momentum for a while before bearish breakdown could be executed on April 23. Currently, the price zone around 1.1235-1.1250 has turned into supply-zone to be watched for bearish rejection. Two days ago, a recent bullish head and shoulders pattern was being demonstrated around 1.1140 on the H4 chart. That’s why, conservative traders were suggested to wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.1230-1.1250 for a valid SELL entry. Today, bearish persistence below 1.1175 is needed to ensure further bearish decline. Otherwise, another bullish pullback maybe executed towards 1.1190-1.1210. Trade recommendations : Conservative traders were suggested to have a valid SELL entry anywhere around 1.1250. It’s already running in profits. S/L should be lowered to 1.1220 to secure some profits. Target levels to be located around 1.1170 and 1.1130. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.
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| Crude Oil Price Breakdown Nears April Low, USDCAD Outlook Lifted Posted: 02 May 2019 02:05 PM PDT Hits: 10 Talking Points: – Crude oil prices have snapped their uptrend from the December 2018 low, and in the process have broken through their April low as well. – The Canadian Dollar is already backpedaling, and a fresh wave of near-term weakness in oil prices could pave the way for more USDCAD strength. – Recent changes in trader positioning suggest that oil prices may continue lower in the days ahead. Looking for longer-term forecasts on Oil prices? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides. After initially finding a positive catalyst in supply concerns around Venezuela, the tables have turned on oil prices in the second half of the week amid inventory data out of the United States. Last week, crude oil stockpiles have risen to their highest level since September 2017, while at the same time data showed that US production hit an all-time record high at 12.3 million barrels per day. Trump’s Impact on Oil PricesWhile there may have been lingering concerns around the Trump administration's decision to end waivers for countries importing Iranian oil – part of its strategy to see Iran's oil exports eliminated altogether – it seems that the US president is already working Gulf allies to prevent undersupply concerns from coming back into the picture. This is an effort to prevent the undersupply threat from pushing oil prices higher ahead of the commuter-heavy summer season (typically the period of the year with the strongest demand for oil and gasoline). Earlier, US President Donald Trump said he has communicated with Saudi Arabia "and others" about offsetting the supply impact from Iran, noting that "all are in agreement"; per the most recently available data, this would mean that OPEC+ (including Russia) would need to increase their production by 1.4 million barrels per days (not a difficult task). Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (February 2016 to May 2019) (Chart 1)The timing of the supply developments for oil prices couldn't be worse, as the technical outlook was already on unsteady ground and now critical support appears to be giving way. Earlier this week it was noted that "Failure to continue the rally here would suggest that oversupply concerns may be becoming more prominent on traders' minds." Concerns about oversupply appear to be gaining the upper hand. If so, crude oil prices may be biased lower in the coming days now that price has been rejected on its attempt to get back above the trendline from the February 2016 and June 2017 lows. Crude Oil Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (April 2018 to May 2019) (Chart 2)
In our last update we said that "failure to rally here could prove to be a technical death knell for oil prices: a move below last week's low at 62.26 would constitute several key breaks, including: the daily 21-EMA; the uptrend from the December 2018 low; and decisive rejection from the trendline from the February 2016 low. Either way, we're at a key inflection point in the oil market." These "several key breaks" did indeed occur, and momentum is now pointed to the downside. Now, compounding the initial break in oil prices, the April 5 bullish outside engulfing bar low is under pressure at 61.79. A move below this critical level has increased the likelihood of a return to the April monthly low at 60.08. IG Client Sentiment Index: Crude Oil Price Forecast (May 2, 2019) (Chart 3)
Oil – US Crude: Retail trader data shows 54.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.18 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 21.4% higher than yesterday and 27.4% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 27.3% lower than yesterday and 16.6% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Oil – US Crude prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Oil – US Crude-bearish contrarian trading bias. And, per the report from earlier this week, USDCAD's Failed Breakout Attempt Hinges on Next Crude Oil Price Move, we finally may be finding resolution now that oil prices are attempting a breakdown. USDCAD Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (September 2018 to May 2019) (Chart 4)
USDCAD price has reversed higher, and it now appears that the recent pullback was simply a retest of former resistance dating back to the yearly high; a symmetrical triangle may have been forming in recent months. Ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report tomorrow, the USDCAD technical outlook has improved in a meaningful way. A retest of the April high at 1.3514 shouldn't be ruled out in the coming days. Note: for a more detailed, short-term, scalping point of view, as well as the IG Client Sentiment index update for USDCAD prices and positioning ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, see Currency Analyst Michael Boutros' latest piece, Canadian Dollar Price Outlook: USD/CAD at Weekly High as Loonie Dives. Read more: Central Bank Weekly: Fed and BOE Shape Currency and Growth Forecasts FX TRADING RESOURCESWhether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| Retailers Warn of Impact from Strong US Dollar Posted: 02 May 2019 01:26 PM PDT Hits: 8 Stock Market Update:
Stock Market Update: Retailers Highlight Impact from Strong US DollarAlongside a few key tech companies, US retailers have highlighted the adverse impact from a strong US Dollar in their first quarter earnings. According to FactSet, concerns around a strong Dollar have only increased from the quarter prior, and the trend could be set to continue if Greenback strength persists. Source: FactSet NikeAt the company level, Nike is one retailer that has highlighted headwinds due to foreign exchange rates. "It is important to note that we expect roughly 6 points of FX headwindsin Q4 which would result in low single-digit reported revenue growth. As you may recall in Q4 of last year, we delivered 8% currency-neutral revenue growth with 13% reported revenue growth" Nike CFO Andy Campion said on their March 21, third quarter earnings call. While Nike warned of an FX headwind as their 2019 fiscal year concludes, the 2020 outlook was more optimistic. "We also see the disparity between currency-neutral and reported revenue growth peaking in Q4 before narrowing significantly as we enter fiscal year 2020 based on current FX rates. As a result, we currently expect the FX headwind on reported revenue to largely dissipate as we enter fiscal year 2020" Mr. Campion continued. Interestingly, Nike's FX outlook contrasts with that of Google's which warned of a stronger Dollar in the coming months. HanesElsewhere, Hanes Brands had similar findings on the state of FX. "Adverse foreign currency exchange rates for the year are expected to reduce net sales as reported by approximately $115 million compared with last year, up from previous expectations of approximately $60 million" read a company filing of their first quarter earnings – released today. Despite the headwind, Hanes was able to deliver results above expectations – but saw its stock price falter after it revealed a bad debt charge from Heritage Sportswear. VF CorporationLike Nike and Hanes, VF Corporation, which owns US brands like Vans, the North Face and Timberland also noted a strong Dollar. In their most recent earnings report, VF financial statements reveal the company's profit was reduced by $681,000 due to currency headwinds – compared to a profit of $737,000 in the year prior. While the $1.5 million swing is unlikely to make or break VF Corporation, it demonstrates the impact of Dollar strength on corporate profits over time. Trade War Concerns SubsideUnlike FX, US corporations seem to be coming to terms with tariffs and trade wars. Compared to 4Q 2018, fewer firms have thus far warned of adverse impacts from the ongoing economic conflicts. On Thursday, conflicting statements came out of official Chinese media and the Commerce Department of the United States. While the former said the talks may have reached an impasse, the latter was optimistic a deal was near. The two sides will meet again in Washington next week for further talks. US Dollar, S&P 500 Outlook
With May's FOMC decision in the rearview, it will now look to Friday's release of US Non-Farm Payroll data for guidance. As for the S&P 500, a key technical break and a neutral Fed could mark troubled times ahead. For a deeper look at the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 join my equity webinar on Friday. –Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX Read more:US Dollar Price Action Setups Post-FOMC Dip and Rip: EUR/USD, GBP/USD DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| NFP Price Action Setups post-FOMC: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD Posted: 02 May 2019 12:50 PM PDT Hits: 12 US Dollar Price Action SetupsThis is a live webinar being hosted over the Youtube platform, and upon conclusion, the archive will be available in the above video player. The focus for today's webinar is price action across FX pairs along with a couple of key commodity and equity market indices after yesterday's FOMC rate decision. That rate decision produced a volatile move in the US Dollar, with the currency dropping around the release of the statement; but soon after finding support and rallying through the press conference. US Dollar Four-Hour Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley That US Dollar strength remains in to today's trade, and tomorrow brings the Non-Farm Payroll report out of the United States. The expectation is for +190k jobs to have been added in the month of April, and this has the potential to keep the US Dollar and, in-turn, major currency pairs on the move. EUR/USD is interesting ahead of tomorrow. Yesterday's initial move of USD-weakness saw the pair pop-up to last week's highs, finding a bit of resistance in the zone that runs from 1.1250-1.1262. That zone held the highs as bears quickly came back, and price action pushed back-down to prior range support, the zone that runs from 1.1187-1.1212. We've since seen price make a push below this zone, but this may be more of a 'trap setup' considering the driver on the calendar for tomorrow. EUR/USD Hourly Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley To read more:Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q2 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| USD/CAD at Weekly High as Loonie Dives Posted: 02 May 2019 12:12 PM PDT Hits: 10 The Canadian Dollar is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar since the start of the week and we're looking for a break of the weekly opening-range heading into US Non-Farm Payrolls on tap tomorrow morning. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD charts this week. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this setup and more. New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide USD/CAD Daily Price ChartTechnical Outlook: In my latest USD/CAD Price Outlook we noted that Loonie was, "testing the origins of last week's breakout and we're looking for support ahead of 1.34 IF the broader up-trend is to remain viable– be on the lookout for possible price exhaustion / long-entries on a love lower." Price briefly registered a low at 1.3377 before reversing sharply higher on with the advance now testing the weekly opening-range highs ahead of NFPs – look for the break for guidance. A pivot / close back below 1.3435/37 would expose the monthly open at 1.3388 with bullish invalidation at the lower parallel / April open / 100-day moving average at 1.3340/45. A breach / close above the median-line is needed to fuel the next leg higher in price targeting the highlighted confluence zone at the 78.6% retracement of the yearly range at 1.3537. Why does the average trader lose? Avoid these Mistakes in your trading USD/CAD 120min Price Chart
Notes: A closer look at price action shows Loonie attempting to breach above near-term channel resistance today with the weekly opening-range capping the highs at 1.3479. A topside breach is needed to keep the immediate long-bias viable targeting the 100% extension at 1.3515 and confluence resistance at 1.3537– look for a bigger reaction there IF reached. Initial support rests at 1.3435/37 – weakness beyond this threshold would shift the focus back towards the 61.8% retracement at 1.3369 backed by the lower parallel at 1.3340/45. Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide Bottom line: USD/CAD has set a clean weekly opening-range and we're looking for the break heading into NFPs tomorrow. From at trading standpoint, the immediate focus is on a break of the 1.3435-1.3479 zone for guidance with a breach above the median-line needed to fuel the next leg high. Ultimately, I'd be looking to fade strength on a spoke towards 1.3537. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for look at the longer-term technical picture. For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy USD/CAD Trader Sentiment
See how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment! — Relevant US / Canada Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide! Active Trade Setups– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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| The New Hot Pot Stock for Summer 2019 Posted: 02 May 2019 12:04 PM PDT Hits: 0
Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.
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| Should Stock Market Investors Listen to the ’Sell in May and Go Away’ Anomaly? Posted: 02 May 2019 11:34 AM PDT Hits: 7 SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY STOCK MARKET ANOMALY – TALKING POINTS
The phrase ‘Sell in May and Go Away’ refers to the stock market anomaly coined by investors that suggests equity returns tend to falter beginning annually in the month of May – and statistical evidence from history tends to bear out that unusual norm. Another example of a stock market anomaly is the January Effect. SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY ANOMALY – DOW JONES INDEX RETURNSAs shown in the chart above, the Dow Jones Index has recorded an average return of -0.1 percent during the month of May and only a modest gain of 1.2 percent on average over May through September – the period often termed 'the Summer months' – dating back to 1928. This performance compares to other periods throughout the year like January through April (the 'winter' period) and October through December ('fall') which see average returns of 2.2 percent and 2.5 percent respectively. The median return for May and May through September are both lower than the returns inked during these other seasonal periods of year. Drawing on historical context, a series of negative economic events have occurred during May and subsequent summer months which helps explain the lackluster returns during this time of year. For example, Greece was on the verge of defaulting on its debt in May 2010. Summer of 2011 saw the ECB stave off the Eurozone credit blowup by implementing its bond-buying program to save Italy and Spain. China slashed its GDP growth estimates mid 2015 as it announced plans to restructure its economy for more sustainable growth. The history of financial crises details several additional events that proved bearish for equities over the years during May through September. DOW JONES INDEX AVERAGE PERIODICAL RETURNS
However, stock market performance has begun to show a much brighter picture as of late and serves as evidence that contradicts the 'Sell in May and Go Away' anomaly. In fact, the Dow Jones 3-year average return for May through September is an impressive 6.5 percent while the 5-year and 10-year averages are also positive at 2.7 percent and 1.9 percent respectively. One possible explanation for this could be the change in economic regimes witnessed by markets since the Global Financial Crisis. The theme that stands out most prominently over the last decade is the new era of quantitative easing (QE) and extremely low interest rates adopted by global central banks. THE SELL IN MAY ANOMOLY AND CURRENT MARKET CONDITIONSThis new era of easy-money monetary policy has aimed at smoothing out the business cycle by providing loose financial conditions in hopes of encouraging business activity, bolstering asset prices and restoring market confidence. In turn, there have been less severe stock market drawdowns over recent times leading to higher average returns over shorter lookback periods. That being said, there are still several unresolved market risks that loom – unsustainable debt loads, landing a smooth Brexit, uncertainty surrounding US trade policy with partners such as China, Canada, Mexico and the EU in addition to deteriorating global fundamentals shown by an uninspiring downtrend in economic indicators (just to name a few). GROWING DEPENDENCE ON ACCOMODATIVE POLICY AND INVESTOR COMPLACENCYConsequently, this new game of chess between global central bankers and the foundations of market cycle dynamics looks to be at its next pivotal tipping point. Investors have now grown accustomed to these accommodative policies and have 'easy-money addiction' withdrawals following any small shift towards tightening. Around the world fiscal policies remain accommodative shown by ballooning government deficits while central banks are shifting away from normalizing monetary policy. Meanwhile, global equities remain elevated near all-time highs which makes it difficult to overlook the possibility of investor complacency. Placing such incredible reliance on government and central bank policies to completely eliminate business cycles has potential of proving to be a dangerous strategy, particularly if these already accommodative policies fail to instill market optimism. In sum, while there are historical averages to fall back on to support this favorite investor parable, recent deviations and the wealth of fundamental risks that have arisen warrants less complacency and instead closer observation of the market’s developments as 2019 wears on. READ MORETRADING RESOURCESWhether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has several free resources available to help you: a comprehensive education center, a proprietary indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; informativetrading guides and forecasts; analyticalwebinars held daily, and much more. – Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX – Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.
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