Forex News 24 |
- Crude Oil Prices Could Rally, But the Long-Term Outlook Is Bleak
- 4 Top Stock Trades for Thursday: DKS, LULU, XOM, JNJ
- Gold & US Dollar Threaten Breakout as Rate Volatility Spikes
- Tencent JV'd with this tiny video game company. Watch the stock now
- 4 Dow Jones Stocks Being Crushed
- Buy this Blue Chip Bargain
- 7 Stocks to Sell Amid an Escalating U.S.-China Trade War
- Trade Wars and Tariffs Have Put the US Auto Industry in Peril
- 3 Reasons to Buy AMD (AMD) Stock and 3 Reasons to Sell It
- The Ongoing United States-China Trade War Is Unhealthy
| Crude Oil Prices Could Rally, But the Long-Term Outlook Is Bleak Posted: 29 May 2019 01:52 PM PDT Hits: 9 The S&P 500 continues to drift a few hundred points shy of its record high as investors balance worries over the China trade war with growing American financial strength.  Source: Shutterstock But there is one number that could kick all the optimism to the curb, and right soon. It's the price of oil. The global price, defined as Brent North Sea oil, recently fell from its 2019 high of almost $74 per barrel and was trading on Wednesday at about $68. That's nearly a $10/barrel premium over the main U.S. grade, West Texas Intermediate, which is at about $59 per barrel. That $9 per barrel discount, despite the 2016 end of a ban on U.S. oil exports, is the product of Texas shale oil. U.S. production, now 12.2 million barrels per day, is double what it was in the 1990s. Prices have been falling steadily but they could be due for a short-term snapback. Here's why. Bad News Piles UpBad supply news is starting to pile up in the global oilpatch. Arab oil producers are working hard to get prices high, and believe they are succeeding. It's not just tensions in Iran, Libya and Venezuela that are impacting supply. Russia is cutting supplies, and that may not all be voluntary. Its pipelines were contaminated by chlorine in April, which Russia blames on a small company pushing untreated product. The $2.7 billion in contaminated oil is causing disruption throughout Europe. Russian analysts are warning loudly of global instability in the oil markets. But American analysts insist the U.S. can supply the market at $40-$45 per barrel, thanks to new fracking technology, and they can say the outlook for prices is bearish even with OPEC supply cuts. If these analysts are wrong, global growth could turn negative. Shale SlowdownSchlumberger (NYSE:SLB) is the canary in the coal mine here. SLB stock has been getting hammered as drillers cut their orders. Fracked wells deplete quickly; without constant investment, supplies can dry up quickly. Shale operators insist they can raise production by 16% this year, with many producers raising their production guidance, but if they're also spending less that's not going to continue. Warren Buffett's support for the Occidental Petroleum (NYSE:OXY) takeout of Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE:APC) is based in prices remaining high or rising. That's not good for consumers. The Long-Term Outlook for EnergyWhat we're witnessing, in my view, is the last dance of the oil patch. New production is being developed in Brazil, and Exxon Mobil's (NYSE:XOM) production program in Guyana will hold prices down over the long-term. Meanwhile, prices for both solar energy and wind energy continue to decline, while demand is only now returning to its peak in 2000 thanks to the cheapest renewable energy of all — efficiency. Renewable energy now constitutes one-third of the world's electricity generation. For countries without a huge amount of fossil fuel infrastructure, it's the obvious choice. The Bottom LineOn the one hand, because high oil prices are now in America's economic interest, prices should remain high throughout the summer. Current disruptions and international tensions should, on the other hand, lead to a hard spike in prices. This could still happen, but if it does, the impact will be shortlived, and it will only serve to accelerate the ongoing transition toward renewables. The lack of a price spike in the face of global growth, OPEC supply cuts, Russian supply disruptions and a slowdown in oilfield spending is the dog that is not barking in the energy market. Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of the mystery thriller, The Reluctant Detective Finds Her Family, available at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned no shares in companies mentioned in this article. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? The serve is if you go from canadian forex, and unchaste forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is locomote in forex 1 buck canadian, netdania forex, work chockablock advantage of the forex system indicators, and appraisal the programme fx strategy. We testament succeed win all.
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| 4 Top Stock Trades for Thursday: DKS, LULU, XOM, JNJ Posted: 29 May 2019 01:16 PM PDT Hits: 10 Selling pressure is starting to grip Wall Street, pushing the indices lower on Wednesday. Will the pressure keep up as we look to June? Let's look at a few top stock trades on the day. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #1: Dick's Sporting GoodsDick's Sporting Goods (NYSE:DKS) initially rallied on Wednesday after it reported earnings. However, those gains gave way as the retail sector — weighed down by Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) and Canada Goose (NYSE:GOOS) — came under pressure. DKS stock is now knifing through key support. Shares are finding the 10-week moving average as resistance, while cutting right through the 50-week and the 200-day moving average. Further, the 61.8% retracement for the one-year range is also above current levels, at $33.66. If the stock can reverse and reclaim this level, then perhaps it can rally back to its 200-day up near $35.70. In that scenario, we'd have to see if this level acts as resistance. If so, the recent lows can in store for another test. Should shares continue lower, the $29.50 to $30 area could be eventual resting spot. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #2: Exxon Mobil
Over the last five years, investors have had success buying this stock in the $68 to $71 range. If the bottom of that range fails as support, it's hard to believe XOM tests downtrend support in the low $60s…but you never know. On a rebound, see how Exxon handles the $75 to $77 area, where there's a conflux of moving averages. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #3: Johnson & JohnsonJohnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) is getting slugged on the day, down more than 5%. Shares are below $130, which has me leery moving forward. Above $130 and a rebound up to $134+ is possible. Should $130 act as resistance though, JNJ may need to test prior support down near $124. This is a high-quality name, so if we see some broad market selling pressure going into June, this one should find its way onto investors' shopping list. Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #4: Lululemon Athletica
It's very possible that Lululemon remains one of the few retailers that aren't struggling right now. But with all the negativity in the sector and the big gains in LULU, investors aren't passing up the chance to book some gains. Let's see if $158 can prop up the name. If not, $150 could be on the table. There it will find the 200-day moving average as well as the 38.2% retracement for the one-year range. An overshoot down to ~$146 fills the gap from March. On a rebound, see how LULU does with its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? The serve is if you go from canadian forex, and unchaste forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is locomote in forex 1 buck canadian, netdania forex, work chockablock advantage of the forex system indicators, and appraisal the programme fx strategy. We testament succeed win all.
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| Gold & US Dollar Threaten Breakout as Rate Volatility Spikes Posted: 29 May 2019 12:58 PM PDT Hits: 6 VOLATILITY, GOLD, US DOLLAR – TALKING POINTS
In our last cross-asset volatility report, we highlighted how price action across forex, stocks, bond and gold markets began to show signs of turning higher. Since then, expected volatility for these select asset classes has continued to climb as market participants wrestle with lingering global risks such as the US China Trade War, Brexit, monetary policy and geopolitical tension. Traders who typically fiend for volatility may soon find solace, however, judging by the extended rise in 30-day implied volatility measures for these various asset classes depicted in the chart below. VOLATILITY EXPECTED FOR S&P 500, GOLD, OIL, CURRENCIES, US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD, AND EMERGING MARKETS: WEEKLY TIME FRAME (MAY 01, 2017 TO MAY 29, 2019)While there have been clear signs that implied volatility gauges are starting to trend higher for most assets, expected price action in the gold and forex markets remain quiet. Yet, market participants may witness sharp moves in the currency market and gold in the near future considering cross-asset volatility measures tend to move in tandem with one another. US DOLLAR PRICE CHART VERSUS CURRENCY VOLATILITY AND US 10-YEAR TREASURY VOLATILITY: WEEKLY TIME FRAME (MAY 01, 2015 TO MAY 29, 2019)
Investors are flocking to safety in US Treasuries following the latest influx of trade war tension and slowing global growth risks. In fact, the recent shock to market sentiment has sent US10YR Treasury yield plunging to 2.23 percent – its lowest level since September 2017. The sharp move in US Treasuries has sent the US10YR Treasury Note Volatility (TYVIX) soaring from a year-to-date low of 2.84 percent recorded early April to 4.81 percent today. Large spikes in TYVIX generally precede upward moves in the US Dollar Index (DXY) which tends to be mirrored by rising currency market volatility (measured by an equally-weighted index of the CME's volatility readings for Euro, British Pound Sterling and Japanese Yen). Seeing that demand for safe-havens like the US Dollar and Treasuries jumps during times of heightened market stress, the recent rise in TYVIX could imply that additional volatility may be headed to the forex market. A rip higher in the US Dollar resulting from widespread risk aversion may serve as the catalyst. SPOT GOLD PRICE CHART VERSUS GOLD VOLATILITY AND US 10-YEAR TREASURY VOLATILITY: DAILY TIME FRAME (MAY 01, 2017 TO MAY 29, 2019)
With the recent ascent in TYVIX, the difference in anticipated gold price volatility – measured by the CME's Gold Volatility Index (GVZ) – and US10YR Treasury volatility expectations just notched the lowest spread since the financial instruments began trading in 2015. Although this divergence may seem puzzling, the current lack of price action in gold could be regarded as a metaphorical 'calm before the storm' with a return in gold volatility lurking on the horizon. Consequently, the sizable disconnect between gold and interest rates threatens to push gold prices higher – particularly if investor sentiment remains damaged and appetite for risk ebbs further. – Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX – Follow @RichDvorakFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get prosperous from fx trading? The serve is if you go from river forex, and promiscuous forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is farm in forex 1 symbol canadian, netdania forex, buy increase vantage of the forex scheme indicators, and account the mean fx strategy. We present follow win all.
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| Tencent JV'd with this tiny video game company. Watch the stock now Posted: 29 May 2019 12:55 PM PDT Hits: 7
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| 4 Dow Jones Stocks Being Crushed Posted: 29 May 2019 12:40 PM PDT Hits: 11 Concerns over the deepening rift with China is pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average back to levels not seen since early February, a clear breakdown below its 200-day moving average. What is worrying is that the move traces out a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern that traces a decline to the 24,000 level last seen in February, which would be worth a loss of roughly 5% from here. There's a lot to worry about these days, from Beijing's threat of a rare-earth metals export ban to the risk higher tariffs present to the global supply chain network. No wonder then that the bond market is sending its strongest recession warnings since 2007, with much of the U.S. Treasury yield curve "inverting" as long-term rates fall below short-term rates — a sign that something is very wrong with the global economy. As a result, a number of mega-cap stocks are breaking lower. Here are four Dow Jones stocks under huge pressure. Disney (DIS)Despite the very hyped opening of the new Star Wars Galaxy's Edge themed area in the Disneyland theme park, shares of Disney (NYSE:DIS) are preparing to drop out of a two-month consolidation range with a likely return to the lows seen in early April, which would be worth a fall of nearly 11% from here. The company will next report results on Aug. 7 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of $1.77 per share on revenues of $21.5 billion. When the company last reported on May 8, earnings of $1.61 beat estimates by 4 cents on a 2.6% rise in revenues. Nike (NKE)Nike (NYSE:NKE) shares are cutting down below their 200-day moving average, falling below the $80-a-share level for the first time since January and breaking into downtrend territory for the first time since December. The company is at the center of tariff concerns, with a group of shoe companies recently asking Trump not to raise import duties on footwear. The company will next report results on June 20 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of 67 cents per share on revenues of $10.2 billion. When the company last reported on March 21, earnings of 68 cents per share beat estimates by 3 cents on a 7% rise in revenues. Apple (AAPL)Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), the world's most important technology company, is returning to levels seen in early March as analysts worry the deepening trade war will have a direct impact on its bottom line. Not only is the company vulnerable to U.S. imports on products coming in from China (with iPhone and laptops to be affected by the next round of tariffs) but sales to Chinese consumers are vulnerable to a nationalist boycott. The company will next report results on July 30 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of $2.1 per share on revenues of $53.47 billion. When the company last reported on April 30, earnings of $2.46 beat estimates by 10 cents on a 5.1% decline in revenues. Caterpillar (CAT)Shares of heavy equipment maker Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) have returned to lows not seen since December, down more than 17% from their recent high. Farm and heavy equipment makers such as CAT and Deere (NYSE:DE) are at risk from lower sales into China (as the trade war hurts their export-oriented economy) as well as to U.S. farmers, as Beijing retaliates by buying less American foods. The company will next report results on July 24 before the bell. Analysts are looking for earnings of $3.12 per share on revenues of $14.54 billion. When the company last reported on April 24, earnings of $2.94 beat estimates by 8 cents on a 4.7% rise in revenues. As of this writing, William Roth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? The serve is if you go from canadian forex, and unchaste forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is locomote in forex 1 buck canadian, netdania forex, work chockablock advantage of the forex system indicators, and appraisal the programme fx strategy. We testament succeed win all.
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| Posted: 29 May 2019 12:23 PM PDT Hits: 8 There are a lot of ways to make money in the market. But even if you find that rare company that can move ten-fold and provide one of the best profits of your lifetime, that will take time. Most investors get impatient. There are far more investors interested in companies like Amazon (AMZN) today, now that it's proven its profitability. But even if you invested in the company back when shares were far cheaper, chances are you wouldn't have taken the full ride. Instead, you would have cashed out and left a huge chunk of potential profits on the table. Rather than try and find the next ten-fold winner, investors looking to buy great companies at bargain prices can often find such a few such opportunities per year. These blue-chip bargains can give investors a solid and growing dividend so that they're paid to wait. And even better, by buying when shares are oversold and sentiment is negative, there's a good chance to see some capital gains right away as well. One such opportunity right now is forming in 3M (MMM). Back in April, shares dove 20 percent as the company announced a drop in earnings and sales. While some are starting to extrapolate the end of the company, some perspective is helpful. For instance, 3M sells over 60,000 products across a variety of divisions. By getting rid of the lowest-selling or most unprofitable 10,000 products, the company could realize millions in savings while also improving its profit margin in total. If they sell off those products rather than shut them down entirely, they could even make some money while doing so! With sentiment so negative and with shares so oversold right now, there's a good chance shares will trend higher in the coming months. And with a 3.5 percent dividend yield now, there's a nice income to be made on the side. Even better, the company has paid a dividend consistently, and has managed to grow it over the years. Buying dividend growth companies after they've taken a dive is often a good way to get a better starting yield and get your wealth growing over time in a low-risk way. 2019-05-29 18:14:01 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.
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| 7 Stocks to Sell Amid an Escalating U.S.-China Trade War Posted: 29 May 2019 12:05 PM PDT Hits: 8 This time it's different. We've all heard this phrase before, often in a condescending context. Typically, market forecasters who got something wrong earlier will use it to double down on their initial prognostication. But when it comes to picking which stocks to sell amid the re-escalated U.S.-China trade war, this situation has no parallel. Obviously, the biggest wildcard in this economic conflict is U.S. President Donald Trump. Right when circumstances appeared favorable for a trade resolution, the former real-estate mogul had other ideas. In a social media post, he blasted the Chinese for dragging their feet toward the negotiating table. Naturally, the about-face angered China, scuttling scheduled talks and by logical extension, boosting the bearish case for stocks to sell. But the other critical factor in this dispute is the Chinese response. They no longer appear amused to play the typical diplomatic courtesies. Their rhetoric has taken on a much more nationalistic sentiment. For example, China's officials referenced deep historical overtones to slight the U.S. Plus, Trump's counterpart, Chinese President Xi Jinping, used the term "long march" regarding the trade war. That's referring to China's civil war and the ultimate rise of the communist party. Although I'm sure nuances exist, that aggressive tone highlights the importance of recognizing which stocks to sell. Finally, I wouldn't get complacent about this trade war. Although agriculture and technology represent the front-facing victims, everyone suffers when the top two economies collide. With that, here are seven stocks to sell amid the second round of the trade war: Stocks to Sell: Apple (AAPL) Source: Shutterstock This might seem like an easy one, plucking the lowest of low-hanging fruit. With Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) seeking new avenues to diversify its business, China offered a viable safety valve. But with heightened tensions, AAPL stock has noticeably suffered. Since the first of May, shares have dropped nearly 15%. That volatility might cue contrarians to enter the markets. But if you're among them, I'd continue to hold off. Sure, AAPL stock remains a robust investment. It wasn't too long ago that the underlying consumer-tech firm became the world's first trillion-dollar company. However, its search for revenue diversification just took a huge hit with re-intensified tensions. Like other portable-device manufacturers, Apple must contend with "peak smartphone." To get around this growing problem, AAPL sought to build out its Services division. But legal challenges now cloud that business. Therefore, you should play the safe game here and put AAPL on your list of stocks to sell. Under Armour (UA, UAA)  Source: Shutterstock For quite some time, I've urged readers to put Under Armour (NYSE:UA, NYSE:UAA) in their basket of stocks to sell. One of the reasons I didn't believe in Under Armour stock is the irrational market toward sports sponsorships. The bottom line here is that the broader athletic machinery is paying ridiculous sums of money to adults to play a kid's game. Still, that's the nature of the beast: if you want to play, you have to pay. However, UA stock, when stacked up against sector leaders Nike (NYSE:NKE) and Adidas (OTCMKTS:ADDYY) fares poorly on a financial scale. To win against these titans, Under Armour must hope for a lucky break. Oh, there's breaking going on, but not the good kind. We all know from Foot Locker's (NYSE:FL) dreadful miss in their first-quarter earnings report that the U.S. consumer is hurting. To make ground, Under Armour needs a robust Chinese market. Here, geopolitical tensions threaten to derail everything for UAA stock. Walmart (WMT) Source: Shutterstock Now we're going to talk about one of the stocks to sell that hurts me. I like retail giant Walmart (NYSE:WMT). Actually, let me clarify: I don't like shopping there, but I recognize their investment strength. WMT stock represents a brick-and-mortar retail powerhouse that has proven immune to e-commerce disruption. It also pays a dividend, which usually protects shares from volatility. But let's face facts here. Favorable financial metrics supported Walmart during the first round of the trade war. But that situation was only a temporary reprieve. Last September, Walmart's management team urged the Trump administration to ease diplomatic tensions. At some point, tariffs will force retailers to take drastic measures, including consumer-price hikes. That's hugely problematic because of Walmart's shoppers. These are consumers that cannot absorb a price hike, which is why I'm cautious on WMT stock now. General Motors (GM) Source: Shutterstock Amid these escalating tensions, General Motors (NYSE:GM) has two reasons why its equity belongs on a list of stocks to sell. Number one, American cars are junk. Number two, the marketing machinery to sell American cars is equally disappointing. Detroit loves to pander to patriotism and subtle anti-Japanese sentiment to generate sales. You know what's more patriotic? Taking pride in your work and rising up to meet a challenge. Anyways, GM stock does have an ace up its sleeve — or should I say, did. In America, GM brands like Buick have all but died in terms of relevancy. But in China, that's different. Due to longstanding historical and cultural reasons, the Chinese love American cars. That will likely change, though, with this heated conflict. You see, GM stock is levered two ways with China: General Motors sell to the Chinese, and they also contract the Chinese to sell GM-branded cars to us. That's why management was so desperate to seek an exemption from the Trump administration last year. But with how things are going geopolitically, you can kiss GM stock goodbye. Tiffany (TIF) Source: Shutterstock Earlier this year, Tiffany (NYSE:TIF) seemed like a sound investment among the rather shaky discretionary-spending segment. Although the company's overall revenue went flat for the holidays, it did have a bright spot: sales growth in mainland China, which jumped by double digits in the last two months of 2018. It's a formula that many distinguished organizations have failed to master, separating TIF stock from the competition. But now, the trade war urges stakeholders to toss it into their portfolio of stocks to sell. The pivotal reason is that Beijing is determined to play the long game against Washington. This is the reason why the Chinese government's aforementioned aggressive rhetoric is so worrying: they mean it. Unlike the U.S. and most western countries, China is largely racially and ethnically homogenous. When most of its citizens are Han Chinese, you have fewer opportunities for internal strife. Therefore, it's easier for Beijing to appeal to nationalistic sentiment. Demographically, everyone is on the same page. And let's be real: boycotting frivolities like jewelry is easy. Thus, I'd steer clear of TIF stock for now. Alibaba (BABA)  Source: Shutterstock I've mostly focused on American companies for my list of stocks to sell. But that doesn't mean I'm letting Chinese stocks off the hook. The knife cuts both ways. As such, most publicly traded Chinese firms are suspect. However, I'll sum up my reservations for the region by addressing Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), China's flagship corporate entity. China is a country built on intellectual theft. China's scientific infrastructure is based on possibly record-breaking fraud and intellectual theft. According to Business Insider, "a mind-blowing number of counterfeit goods come from China." Even their art industry is buoyed by a shocking level of corruption! So is it any surprise that for years, analysts questioned BABA stock? While I'm concerned about the coming pain stateside, the Chinese better watch out for their own good. Angering Trump only makes him want to double, triple, heck even quadruple down on his initial policy. Eventually, BABA stock can take a long march out of the markets if the Chinese overplay their hand. NIO (NIO) Source: Shutterstock Please forgive me for my thoughts on GM if you drive or love American cars. I'm just telling it like it is. But if you still have some bitter lingering emotions, allow me to soothe them with my take on NIO (NYSE:NIO). Among automotive stocks to sell, this one takes the cake. NIO stock faces so many problems it's difficult to know where to start. Primarily, I'd say that it's incredibly difficult to break into the automotive market. For example, it took Toyota (NYSE:TM) decades of long-term strategizing to break into and later dominate the U.S. market. That segues into my second point, which is that NIO has zero chance of breaking into the U.S. market with this trade war. Seriously, Japanese automakers have invested billions into American jobs and infrastructures, yet Trump still cries foul. If that's the stance the administration takes on allies, imagine being an adversary? Finally, NIO has a credibility problem. Chinese manufacturing has a poor reputation that really hasn't improved much today. If Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) can't build a car that's consistently reliable, can Nio do better? I thought not, which is why I'm steering clear of NIO stock despite its discount. As of this writing, Josh Enomoto did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. Can you get rich from fx trading? 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| Trade Wars and Tariffs Have Put the US Auto Industry in Peril Posted: 29 May 2019 12:01 PM PDT Hits: 8 Auto Industry Outlook:Trade Wars and Tariffs Have Put the US Auto Industry in PerilThe US auto industry is in peril despite efforts from the Trump administration to bolster the sector and revert manufacturing back to domestic plants. That said, the two largest US auto manufacturers, Ford and General Motors, have performed admirably in the year-to-date. Ford has climbed 11.5% while GM is just 3% higher. By comparison, the S&P 500 has enjoyed a rally of more than 10.5%. While the gap may not seem large given that the auto industry is a mature one and demand is cyclical, the picture is direr over a wider timeframe. S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (March 2018 – May 2019) (Chart 1)Since President Trump announced steel and aluminum tariffs on March 1, 2018, Ford has slipped -2% and GM has slumped roughly 6%. In the same period, the S&P 500 has posted a gain of 2.35%. Still, stock prices do not reflect the whole story. In a move that drew the ire of President Trump, General Motors announced on February 4 it would cut 4,000 jobs in an effort to restructure. Often, layoffs cause a bump in stock price – as fat is trimmed and costs are reduced. After the announcement on February 4, GM shares rallied roughly 2% – offsetting some of the pain from the tariff headwinds. View A Brief History of Trade Wars for insight on economic conflicts of the past. Similarly, Ford announced its own round of job cuts on May 20. The auto manufacturer released plans to eliminate 10% of its salaried workforce, which translates to nearly 7,000 jobs. The plan will reach completion at the end of August 2019. The announcement is supplemental to an earlier decision by the company to begin cutting nearly 20,000 jobs earlier in 2019. Announced Automotive Cuts
According to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the auto industry is cutting workers at the quickest rate since the Great Financial Crisis as auto cuts surge 207% over the last year. While part of the restructuring can be attributed to increased automation and industry change, the headwinds from tariffs and prolonged uncertainty have undoubtedly weighed on other industries – some of which are direct suppliers to US automakers. Domestic Steel Produces SlipSteel producers that conduct most of their business in the United States like US Steel (X), Nucor (NUE), AK Steel (AKS) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) find themselves in a similar position to the US auto industry. Since the United States announced steel and aluminum tariffs on March 1, 2018, the four steel companies have shed nearly -12% each. S&P 500 Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (March 2018 – May 2019) (Chart 2)
The steel and aluminum tariffs have not only impacted the manufacturers directly but have been passed on to auto manufacturers, increasing costs which thereby decreases margins. The knock-on effect has weighed on two key industries in the manufacturing sector and the impact of tariffs has started to spill into other sectors like retail. Although a key headwind was lifted with the removal of metal tariffs on Mexico and Canada, USMCA remains unratified. Further, the steel and auto stocks above enjoyed very little reprieve following their removal. Now, the industries must grapple with increased levies between the United States and China – along with a 6-month period of uncertainty regarding auto tariffs on the European Union and Japan. These sector-specific themes fall against a backdrop of slowing global growth. Together, waning demand and rising costs will continue to pressure a sector that was forced into a bailout during the Great Financial Crisis. Should renewed pressure befall the stock market, the beleaguered industry will have to enact even greater change if it is to avoid a similar fate. As these themes unfold, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for updates and analysis. –Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX Read more: What if Mexico, Canada Join the US in the Trade War with China? DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get comfortable from fx trading? The solvent is if you go from river forex, and promiscuous forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is spread in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, traverse ladened plus of the forex system indicators, and modify the program fx strategy. We testament win win all.
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| 3 Reasons to Buy AMD (AMD) Stock and 3 Reasons to Sell It Posted: 29 May 2019 11:27 AM PDT Hits: 14 Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) hasn't just been on a good run in 2019. AMD stock price has been on an upward trajectory since 2015.
 Source: Shutterstock Over the past three years, it's delivered to AMD shareholders an annualized total return of just less than 85% through May 24. In recent quarters, the demand for semiconductor chips has undergone a cyclical downturn that has impacted AMD's business and that of many of its peers. Since AMD stock has come a long way over the past three years, investors naturally are worried that it's come too far, too fast. Should investors who own Advanced Micro Devices stock sell it and take their profits? And for those who don't own AMD stock and missed the significant gains, is now the time to buy AMD stock? Here are three reasons to buy AMD stock and three reasons to sell AMD stock. 3 Reasons to Buy AMD StockOwners of AMD Stock Are Very Loyal: InvestorPlace columnist Nicolas Chahine recently discussed this subject while wondering if AMD stock price would reach $25 or $30. He believes that AMD investors are much more loyal to its stock than the owners of other semiconductor stocks. "AMD fans have proven themselves strong hands and are less eager to sell out of their positions," Chahine wrote in a column published on May 21. "Case in point, the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA:SMH) got clobbered on Monday [May 20] and fell off a ledge and back to its February contention level. Whereas AMD still is higher than last week's levels. So even though it too fell on Monday, relatively it is far out-performing the rest of the gang," he added. When you're in the middle of a cyclical downturn,, it helps to have strong hands. AMD Has an Excellent CEO: There is no doubt that Lisa Su has made a big difference to Advanced Micro Devices since she became CEO. Since October 2014, AMD stock has surged 669% compared to a 57% gain for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY). AMD stock price wouldn't have risen nearly as much if Su hadn't formulated a strategy that could take AMD's business to the next level. "Under her supervision, AMD jumped ahead of Intel in making CPUs at smaller node sizes, giving its products an edge in speed and performance," commented Investor's Business Daily contributor Patrick Seitz in a column published on May 23. "AMD is now making chips at 7-nanometer scale, while Intel has struggled to make chips at 10-nanometer scale." Gaining Market Share: By managing to deliver smaller chips that are faster and more efficient than those of its competitors, AMD is expected to take market share from them. Recently, it was announced that AMD and Cray (NASDAQ:CRAY), which was recently acquired by Hewlett Packard Enterprise (NYSE:HPE) for $1.3 billion, are partnering to build Frontier, the world's fastest supercomputer. The $600-million contract from the Dept. of Energy to build this supercomputer won't make a big difference to AMD's overall revenue, but it will make a statement about the company's ability to deliver reliable products. That statement is a priceless, positive catalyst for AMD stock price. 3 Reasons to Sell AMD StockIts Growth Is Slowing: AMD announced its first-quarter results on Apr. 30. For the first time in three years, AMD reported a year-over-year decline in revenues, and for the first time in seven quarters, its earnings fell year-over-year. Although it did beat analyst estimates on both the top and bottom line, its revenues fell 23% in Q1 to $1.27 billion from $1.65 billion a year earlier. On the bottom line, its earnings fell 45% to 6 cents from 11 cents a year earlier. While AMD's gross margins improved in Q1, investors ought to be cautious about the company's optimistic outlook for the second half of 2019. AMD has predicted that its top and bottom lines will resume growing in the second half. If the trade war continues well into the fall, AMD won't meet its target, putting downward pressure on AMD stock price. The Valuation of AMD Stock Is High: Advanced Micro Devices stock currently trades at 43 times analysts' consensus 2019 earnings per share estimate of $0.65. The P/E ratio of AMD stock is higher than that of both Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA). And you can get the entire VanEck portfolio of semiconductor stocks for 17 times their expected earnings. As Chahine suggested, it would be wise for investors to buy the ETF instead of ratcheting up their company-specific risk by owning Advanced Micro Devices stock. AMD's Peers Are Better: Nvidia reported its earnings on May 16, and its revenues and profits were higher than expected. More importantly, Nvidia raised its guidance, suggesting that it will do even better this quarter. Although AMD has said virtually the same thing about the remainder of the year, the fact that NVDA stock is trading at just 28 times analysts' average forward earnings estimate, 35% cheaper than Advanced Micro Devices stock, is an indication of just how expensive AMD is at the moment. If you own AMD stock, taking profits wouldn't be the worst thing to do at this point. At the time of this writing Will Ashworth did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
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| The Ongoing United States-China Trade War Is Unhealthy Posted: 29 May 2019 10:51 AM PDT Hits: 6 Trade wars are unhealthy for economies and other living things. While trade between the U.S. and China is a tiny part of global trade, JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) says the trade war is putting a "cap" on the global economy. CEO Jamie Dimon says escalating trade tensions could end the recovery. Half the globe's growth comes from trade.  If nothing else, the trade war forces people to choose sides. TV analyst Jim Cramer has become a "trade hawk," a stance that lets the administration call those who favor growth "trade doves." Alibaba Group Holding (NASDAQ:BABA) executive chairman Jack Ma is talking up a listing in Hong Kong, to make his company more independent of U.S. investment. In an era of stupid policies, this is the biggest stupid of all. Trade ReciprocityThe trade war is partly based on a lie. The lie is that the trade deficit is money "lost" to a trading partner. In fact, it's a cost of goods sold, recouped in the form of lower prices, not just for toys and diapers but for finished goods the U.S. can export. The trade war is thus largely based on fear. The fear is that China is taking the future, that China will dominate the world unless our trade deficit with it is reduced. Ultimately the argument is that trade is war by other means. China's "belt and road" initiative, an enormous infrastructure project of road and port improvements around the world, funded by Chinese loans, is called a "debt trap," a way for China to gain control of remote economies. Mainly, the U.S. relationship with China is seen as a win-lose proposition. If they rise, we fall, and vice versa. This is the biggest lie of all. What the U.S. WantsThe stated goal of U.S. policymakers is equal treatment for U.S. technology. American internet companies are kept out of China and every niche has a Chinese imitator, because China wants absolute control over what its people say and see. One in five U.S. companies claim China has stolen its intellectual property. Chinese products are accused of being used to spy, which is why the U.S. is cracking down on Huawei. Unfortunately, that war has already been lost. China is integral to the global supply chain, especially the U.S. supply chain. Every major U.S. tech manufacturer has close ties to China. That's because even educated Chinese labor is cheap and abundant. Every escalation in war rhetoric hits companies like Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) hard. Since things heated up in April, Apple is down 12%. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) is down nearly 30% from its April highs, a loss of around $20 billion. The Bottom LineThis administration doesn't care who it hurts in the pursuit of power, except Wall Street. If the trade war starts costing Wall Street big money, and moneymen stop listening to trade hawks in the name of profit, Trump will turn around as he did early this year, after the fall's tech wreck. It's all a game, a way of saying that America is still King of the World. Make America seem great again. But America isn't King of the World, nor should it be. A win-win deal can be made, and we should make it. We will, once the market tells this administration that it must, or we may see business go Democratic in 2020. Dana Blankenhorn is a financial and technology journalist. He is the author of a new environmental story, Bridget O'Flynn and the Bear, available now at the Amazon Kindle store. Write him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter at @danablankenhorn. As of this writing he owned shares in AAPL, NVDA and JPM. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get rich from fx trading? The fulfill is if you go from canadian forex, and loose forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is extended in forex 1 banknote canadian, netdania forex, involve rotund plus of the forex group indicators, and stay the arrangement fx strategy. We instrument succeed win all. Can you get gilded from fx trading? The serve is if you go from canadian forex, and unchaste forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is locomote in forex 1 buck canadian, netdania forex, work chockablock advantage of the forex system indicators, and appraisal the programme fx strategy. We testament succeed win all.
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