Analyst Articles – Forex News 24

Weekly Trade Levels for US Dollar, Euro, Kiwi, Aussie, Gold & Oil
Copper price Upward Trend on Hold Before G20 Summit
Net-Short Positions are 45.7% Higher from Last Week
USD Suffers as Key Support Breaks, EURUSD, AUDUSD Benefit

Weekly Trade Levels for US Dollar, Euro, Kiwi, Aussie, Gold & Oil

Posted: 24 Jun 2019 09:32 AM PDT

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US Dollar Breakdown Testing Yearly Open Support

Last week we warned that, "The levels are clear and while the US Dollar Index (DXY) could make another run at the highs, we're generally looking for topside exhaustion IF price is indeed heading lower."The Dollar is testing yearly open support into the start of the week after a massive outside-weekly reversal broke below the June opening-range lows. Looking for some back & fill to offer re-entry on numerous USD crosses. In this webinar we review updated technical setups on DXY, EUR/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/NZD, Gold, Crude Oil (WTI) and SPX (S&P 500).

Key Trade Levels in Focus

DXY – Focus is on a close below yearly open support at 96.14. Interim resistance 96.56 with bearish invalidation at 96.75. Downside support objectives at 95.74 and 95.55.

EUR/USD – The Euro breakout is testing near-term confluence resistance around the 1.14-handle. Interim support at 1.1350 with bullish invalidation raised to 1.1317. A topside breach keeps the focus on yearly open resistance at 1.1445– look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.

NZD/USD – Kiwi is probing Fibonacci resistance early in the week at 6608 – Failure here (daily close) could see some corrective action but IF price is heading higher, losses should be limited to Friday's low. Initial support 6580– a topside breach targets 6640/57.

AUD/USD – Trade remains constructive while above the 69-handle for now. Topside resistance objectives at 6981 and 7005/18 (critical).

Gold – The gold price has extended to near-six year highs and while the focus remains weighted to the topside, be careful chasing here. Initial support 1380 with bullish invalidation raised to 1350. Subsequent topside resistance objectives at 1433 and the 100% extension at 1451.

For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Key Event Risk This Week

Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk

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—Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

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2019-06-24 15:00:00

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Copper price Upward Trend on Hold Before G20 Summit

Posted: 24 Jun 2019 08:52 AM PDT

Copper Price Forecast

Copper price looking ahead to Trump and Xi meeting this week amid stalled trade talks.
Paused upward trend .

Did we get it right with our various forecasts? Find out more for free from our Q2 USD and main currencies forecasts

Copper Price – Higher but Without Momentum

On June 17 the sellers failed to press Copper To probe two -year low. On the following day the price opened with an upward gap then rallied breaking above the June 11 high at $5,956.

The Relative Strength Index on June 20 crossed above 50 but remained flat after, reflecting the lack of momentum to push the price higher.

Having trouble with your trading strategy? Here's the #1 Mistake That Traders Make

Copper DAILY PRICE CHART (Mar 8, 2019 – JUn 24, 2019) Zoomed In

Copper DAILY PRICE CHART (DEC 7, 2016 – JUn 24, 2019) Zoomed OUT

Looking at the daily chart we notice last week Copper tested $5,975 and failed twice in closing above this level. This suggests the price might fall towards $5,856 contingent on clearing the daily support at $5,900. See the chart for more key levels if Copper closes below $5,856.

In turn, if Copper closes above $5,975 this might rally the price towards $6,088 although the weekly resistance highlighted on the chart should be watched closely. See the chart to find out more about the next significant resistance to watch if the price closes above $6,088.

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CoPper Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (May 6, 2019- JUN 24, 2019)

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice Copper on June 17 rebounded then started an upward trend carving out higher highs with higher lows however, this trend stalled on June 20 after peaking at $6,027.

The price could correct lower if breaks below the June 20 trough at $5,895. This could lead Copper towards the June 18 low at $5,833 contingent on clearing the daily support at $5,856. See the chart to find out more if the selloff continues.

On the other hand, the uptrend might resume if Copper breaks above the aforementioned June 20 peak and could head towards $6,088 although, the resistance at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $6,064 needs to be monitored. See the chart to know more about the key levels if the buyers continued rallying the price.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

2019-06-24 15:30:00

Net-Short Positions are 45.7% Higher from Last Week

Posted: 24 Jun 2019 08:13 AM PDT

Retail trader data shows 41% of traders are net-long

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 41.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.44 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.8% lower than yesterday and 29.5% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.1% higher than yesterday and 45.7% higher from last week.

To gain more insight in how we use sentiment to supplement a strategy, join us for one of our weekly webinars on how to "Identify Trends with Sentiment":

Thursday 21:00 GMT

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EUR/USD Sentiment Remains Bullish

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EUR/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

-Written by Tammy Da Costa, DailyFX Research

2019-06-24 16:50:00

USD Suffers as Key Support Breaks, EURUSD, AUDUSD Benefit

Posted: 24 Jun 2019 05:45 AM PDT

MARKET DEVELOPMENT –USD Suffers on Technical Break, EURUSD, AUDUSD Benefit

DailyFX Q2 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

USD: The USD is on the defensive to begin the week, trading with losses across the board as the greenback breaks below key technical support (below 200DMA). In turn, the USD now sits at the psychological 96.00 handle, consequently curbing further losses for now. Little in the way on the economic calendar today, as such, focus will be on Fed Chair Powell tomorrow, who will comment on the economic outlook.

EUR: Mixed IFO data had been shrugged off by the Euro, which continues to challenge the 1.14 handle to the upside, as last week's announcements from the Fed & ECB drive a sizeable shift in sentiment for the currency. EURUSD has been muted throughout the session, thus the $2bln option expiry at 1.14 could hold for now. (full list of option expiry board)

AUD: Shorts continue to feel the squeeze with the Aussie hovering around 0.6950. Topside resistance is situated at 0.7000, which could see gains somewhat limit above the psychological figure. Markets perceived comments from RBA Governor Lowe to be less dovish, having stated that more infrastructure investment would benefit the country's struggling economy. However, despite this, money markets are pretty certain that another 25bps cut will occur at the July 2nd meeting with interbank futures attaching an 84% likelihood of a cut.

Source: DailyFX, Thomson Reuters

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USD Suffers as Key Support Breaks, EURUSD, AUDUSD Benefit - US Market Open