Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- Could Silver Price Soon Start Outperforming Gold Price?
- Weaker Dollar Sends EURUSD Higher, Eurozone Core CPI Back Above 1%
- EURUSD Eyes G20 Summit, Xi Trump Meeting and US Data
- Asian Stocks Fall , Global Investors Eye Trump-Xi G20 Meet Nervously
- EURUSD and Risk Asset Wind Up Before G-20 Summit
- USD/CNH Price Action Spikes Ahead of G20
- FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD
- Bitcoin, Litecoin, XRP Price Outlook: Cryptos Continue Slide
- Gold Price Rally Cools as Traders Await G20 Summit
- EUR/USD Breakout Eyes Yearly Open into Q3
| Could Silver Price Soon Start Outperforming Gold Price? Posted: 28 Jun 2019 03:19 AM PDT Hits: 8 Silver/Gold Technical Outlook:
For forecasts, educational content, and more, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Gold price leading, but that could change…A couple of weeks back gold price exploded out of a large wedge to highs not seen in six years, which has bullion looking bullish for the foreseeable future as long as any correction it has doesn't lead to a drop back inside the wedge. Looking at the size of the wedge it could be a pretty sizable move, somewhere to the upper-half of the 1600s is a reasonable expectation (if not higher). The breakout, though, has left silver even further behind than it already was. The gold/silver ratio has been rallying since 2011, when precious metals topped, trading at the best levels since the early 90s. But the ratio may be getting near a point of topping, at least temporarily. Gold Price Weekly Chart (strong wedge-break)Gold/Silver Ratio (at highs from early 90s)
Chart provided by analyst Justin McQueen Turning to silver, we see it is still stuck in a wedge on the weekly time-frame, that while not as broad as gold, could lead to a pretty sizable breakout. And soon. A breakout in silver may be the spark it needs to also get into gear against gold and start taking back some of the underperformance versus its sibling. But even if doesn't outperform gold, silver could get a strong bid. The depth of silver's wedge points to a measured move target (MMT) in the 22s. With that said, from a tactical standpoint, it is currently trading at the top of the wedge and as such not a good risk/reward buy at resistance. Get outside the wedge and the bias changes, with the first line of resistance arriving by way of the 2003 trend-line and then the top of the wedge in the 21s, followed by the MMT. Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to see how changes in trader positioning can help signal the next price move in gold and other major markets and currencies. Silver Price Weekly Chart (trading at top of wedge)
Resources for Forex & CFD TradersWhether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. —Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Weaker Dollar Sends EURUSD Higher, Eurozone Core CPI Back Above 1% Posted: 28 Jun 2019 02:32 AM PDT Hits: 9 EUR Talking Points:
EURUSD was pushing higher this morning on the back of a weaker USD after comments made by Donald Trump about international trade showed a weaker tone towards the G-20 meeting between Mr. Trump and Xi Jinping to be held on Saturday. The pair traded in a tight 15-pip range overnight as investors awaited developments on trade talks to consolidate a direction, but comments made by Mr. Trump set a negative tone in anticipation of tomorrow's meeting which put downward pressure on USD at the start of the European trading session. EURUSD and Risk Asset Wind Up Before G-20 Summit Better than expected inflation figures for France released at 0645 GMT helped jump-start EURUSD's uptrend taking it past 1.13750 after which it continued climbing to 1.1391, where the pair continued to trade when core inflation in the Eurozone surprised higher at 1.1% (exp. 1%), as prices remain volatile jumping above and below the 1% mark in the last few months. PRICE CHART: EURUSD ONE-MINUTE TIME FRAME (INTRADAY)We can expect increased volatility in FX pairs over the weekend as G-20 meetings unfold. USD pairs will remain especially sensitive to any news about trade talks with a notable upswing in trade sensitive currencies (AUD, NZD) if a trade deal is reached. Any negative sentiment surrounding Trump and Jinping's meeting will continue to push the dollar lower with the potential for EURUSD to close above 1.1400 (50% retracement) near the March-high of 1.1448 as it continues to create higher highs and higher lows. A bearish outlook could send the pair below the 1.1351 support line. Latest Inflation FiguresEurozone headline inflation remained unchanged at 1.2% whilst core inflation bounced back to 1.1%, up from 0.8% in the previous month. The better than expected figures may ease off some of the pressure the ECB faces to continue to reduce interest rates to induce monetary stimulus, but the figure is still well below the 2% target and considering that monetary stimulus has been in place for some time one would expect inflation to be at, or much closer to, 2%. Preliminary inflation figures for France were positive across the board as YoY CPI was 1.2% in June, up from 0.9% the previous month and MoM inflation was 0.2% beating expectations of no growth at all. Harmonized ICP, which compares a country's inflation figure to those of the members of the EU, was higher both in the monthly and yearly figure, coming in at 0.3% and 1.2% respectively. Italian inflation was also better than expected as monthly and yearly inflation were higher than expected at 0.2% (Exp. 0.1%) and 0.8% (Exp. 0.7%) respectively. Harmonized ICP was 0.1% MoM and 0.8% YoY. A preliminary reading for German CPI showed that monthly inflation increased to 0.3% in the month of June, up from 0.2% in May, with the yearly figure at 1.6%, up from 1.4% in May and above expectations of 1.4%. The Harmonized ICP was unchanged from the previous month figures, coming in at 0.1% MoM and 1.3% YoY. Prices in Spain fell 0.1% in June compared to the month of May as YoY inflation drops to 0.4%, its lowest level since November 2016. The drop-in prices comes on the back of cheaper energy bills, in contrast to the rise they experienced this time last year. Yearly inflation was expected to be unchanged from the previous month's figures of +0.8% and no changes in prices were expected from the month of May (Exp. 0%). Recommended ReadingEurozone Debt Crisis: How to Trade Future Disasters – Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor KEY TRADING RESOURCES: — Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Junior Analyst To contact Daniela, email her at Daniela.Sabin@ig.com Follow Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| EURUSD Eyes G20 Summit, Xi Trump Meeting and US Data Posted: 28 Jun 2019 12:06 AM PDT Hits: 2 EURUSD FORECAST, G20 SUMMIT, TRUMP XI MEETING – TALKING POINTS
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! G20 SUMMIT: XI TRUMP MEETING, TRADE WARSInvestors across all corners of the market will have a close on the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. The main point of focus will be the meeting between US President Donald Trump and his counterpart Xi Jinping. A recent announcement that Beijing and Washington have reached a temporary truce helped lift sentiment and boosted the S&P 500 along with the risk-oriented Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Trump will also be meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi after the two suffered a break down in trade relations after Washington imposed tariffs against New Delhi. Early into Asia Pacific trading hours, Trump said that he will be announcing "very big trade deals" with Modi in addition to meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. US ECONOMIC DATA, FED OUTLOOKDespite all eyes being on the G20 summit, traders may find themselves temporarily diverting their attention to critical US economic data. Namely, the release of the Fed's favorite economic indicator: the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE). Other notable reports will include personal income/spending along with the publication of sentiment data from the University of Michigan. Since February, US economic data has broadly been tending to underperform relative to economists' expectations, so it would not be outlandish to see these reports fall in line with this trend. The volatility which may ensue from these publications will likely have more to do with the degree of how well – or how poorly – they perform against expectations. If they disappoint, it only gives the Fed more impetus to slash rates sooner. This is compounded by the fact that yesterday's release of GDP data came in at 3.1 percent and missed the 3.2 percent estimate. Furthermore, jobless claims spiked while year-on-year pending home sales contracted to 0.8 percent. The increased frequency of disappointing reports highlights the fact that analysts are overestimating the strength of the US economy. A re-assessment of the actual conditions may be warranted. EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSISThe short-term outlook suggests EURSUD will attempt to aim at 1.1419 but the longer-term forecasts still favor a bearish capitulation and possible retest of the descending 18-month resistance channel. Support at 1.1347 may not be as strong as the familiar floor at 1.1275. If US economic data underperforms it could fuel rate cut bets and push the pair higher and this move up could be amplified by positive US-China trade talks. The upbeat news could cause sentiment to spike and leave investors feeling more risk-loving and may then redirect their capital to riskier and higher-yielding assets with a new rush of a confidence. However, this jolly market mood may be offset when traders sober up and realize that the fundamental outlook still remains bleak. A resolution to the US-China trade will not guarantee re-stabilization of global growth and economic strength. CHART OF THE DAY: SHORT TERM EURUSD MAY RE-TEST RESISTANCE BUT ULTIMATELY WILL CAPITULATE AND RESUME DOWNTREND
FX TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter
Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Asian Stocks Fall , Global Investors Eye Trump-Xi G20 Meet Nervously Posted: 27 Jun 2019 10:09 PM PDT Hits: 10 Asian Stocks Talking Points:
Find out what retail foreign exchange investors make of your favorite currency's chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page Asia Pacific stock markets all drooped into the weekend as investors looked with trepidation at the forthcoming Group of 20 summit in Osaka at which Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on Saturday. CNBC reported that China is looking for a 'balanced' trade deal at the summit, with signs of a move toward agreement possibly averting the next round of tariffs planned by Washington on $300 billion of Chinese goods. XI has already told a meeting of Brazil, Russia, China and India in Japan that developed market protectionism was already damaging the order of global trade. On the data front Japan's preliminary industrial production reading for May trounced expectations. It rose by 2.3% on the month, when the markets had been looking for a 0.7% rise. On the year production fell 1.8%, undeniably poor but not as bad as the 2.9% slide feared. Still, with focus fixed on Trump and Xi that wasn't enough to help the Nikkei. It had edged down by 0.5% in the middle of the Tokyo afternoon. Shanghai was off by 0.9% with the Hang Seng down 0.4%. Australia's ASX 200 fell 0.3% Foreign exchange trade was decidedly subdued in the run-up to the G20 with major pairs barely moving. The US Dollar remained steady overall but the Australian Dollar managed very modest gains against it. EUR/USD has made consistent gains since mid-June as markets move to price in monetary easing from the Federal Reserve even though they well know that there's very probably more of the same to come from the European Central Bank. Still the pair shows heightened signs of both topping out and rising indecision and it will probably be instructive to see where June's monthly close puts it. Bitcoin lost a bit more ground and is still trading with a $10,000 handle, having been as high as $13,700 this week. Before things really get going in Osaka markets will be on watch for US Personal Consumption and Expenditure data due later in the global day. ASIAN STOCKS, RESOURCES FOR TRADERSWhether you're new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There's our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There's also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they're all free. — Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch! http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| EURUSD and Risk Asset Wind Up Before G-20 Summit Posted: 27 Jun 2019 08:17 PM PDT Hits: 10 G20 Talking Points:
See how retail traders are positioning in S&P 500, Gold and Dollar-based majors along with the other key FX pairs, indices and oil intraday using the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page. Take Stock Before the G-20While there are still a range of fundamental themes that can readily take the reins of global financial markets, the final trading session of the week and Monday’s open will be fixed on a single issue: trade wars. It is rare when we are offered a clear event with explicit timing that can reasonably be expected to direct the unpredictable course of the ongoing trade disputes, but the upcoming G-20 summit is just such a rarity. The gathering of leaders from some of the largest economies in the world is expected to touch upon a host of issues, but the market sees the greatest possible impact to markets through the steadily deteriorating connection between economies along with the severe and broad repercussions it carries. If discussions go well, we could see an enormous burden for growth and investment lifted. Alternatively, the situation is such that a merely unresolved situation will readily invite escalation. Either way, we are facing the possibility of severe volatility with direction outcome-dependent. Given the uncertainty and stakes, it would make sense that there is little interest in committing to a clear view on risk trends before the communique and side-line remarks are processed. Chart of S&P 500 and VIX Volatility Index (Daily) When there is high probability of significant movement owing to an event with a split probability of outcome and a loss of liquidity to contend with, it is wise to consider your exposure. Objectively, it is not a good time to take a large risk position before such a mix. To presume the outcome of these two-day talks is to invite enormous risk. It is also the case that this is not one of those matters that carries a disproportionate impact opportunity – such as a bullish outcome carrying a far greater potential than a bearish equivalent, which can be exploited. It is almost inevitable that something of substance is said at the meeting with a matching market impact. While there is always the chance that a critical shift in global policy is announced on the first day of the meeting, there would always be a risk that views could be reversed the following day. A Saturday…when the markets are offline. This translates into a serious risk of a weekend gap. This is the time where one cuts risk they are not fully confident in. Chart of S&P 500 and Weekend Gaps (Weekly)
It is unreasonable to presume that we should fully divest ourselves from the markets. If we were to cut all exposure with every unknown, we would have the turnover of a scalper. That said, it is critical to gauge the risk/reward of each position held. If the return potential is tepid with a wide risk of loss, it is probably better to cut out and reenter if the conditions end up favorable. Otherwise, avoiding the fallout can save against serious loss. There are very few areas of the market that we can reasonably look to as active opportunity during the downtime of the weekend: whether as an outright trade vehicle or hedge. One of the view options is the heavily disputed cryptocurrency space. While its legitimacy is under reasonable scrutiny, it is still very liquid during the weekend. That said, following an 8-day rally through Wednesday, Bitcoin suffered its worst single-day loss through Thursday since January 2015. Chart of Bitcoin-Dollar (BTCUSD) Exchange and 1-Day Rate of Change (Daily)
All the ‘Other’ Fundamental MattersAs anticipation takes over, it is worth remember that there are other fundamental winds that will carry through the tempest of trade war headlines, and may event stir activity where the US-China relationship generates less hold. Monetary policy for example is an important potential byproduct of the Summit. We have seen a sharp and deep reversal in sentiment through central bank policy with gradual normalization giving way to further accommodation despite the fact that these groups are already pushing the bounds of the standard tools. Much of interest lately has been around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) dovish shift with a market that has gone so far as to price in three, 25-basis point rate cuts through year end. That conviction has ebbed slightly over the past week, but the belief of multiple rate cuts looks to be unshakeable. We are due the Fed’s favorite inflation reading Friday (the PCE deflator), but the trade war tide will more likely raise or lower the chances for aggressive easing. Chart of S&P 500 and Fed Implied Rate Cuts Through December (Daily)
If trade wars worsen, the outlook for growth intensifies and the artificial buffers from central banks will be expected to kick in. That doesn’t make for ideal options in the FX world. EURUSD may be a candidate in such an outcome as the ECB’s dovish response will have already been priced in with a Targeted-LTRO while the markets are still trying to evaluate how deep the Dollar’s central bank-losses should run. Alternatively, the opposite outcome of a course reversal on competitive growth measures would likely lift risk assets and ease up the central bank intensity. There are few pairings more well-suited to such an outcome than USDJPY. It is worth noting the release of Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – the PCE deflator – but that is not where the true potential lies. Chart of USDJPY with 20-Day Moving Average (Daily)
Another theme with direct exposure to this weekend’s headline fodder is the assessment of global growth. We’ve seen a material drop in both current measures of expansion as well as sentiment readings that better serve as forecast. A reading of US personal income and spending serve this interest well, but any measurable move in this largest consumer’s interests or means will not compensate for hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs – whether added or removed. The risk of recession is being aggressively debated through different levels of the market, with speculators blindly assigning confidence to the central banks’ capabilities on one side while the persistent 10-year to 3-month Treasury yield inversion keeps the recession drum beating. If all trade wars were to cease as of Monday, would we be able to avert an economic slump? I would argue that we wouldn’t. Chart of US 10-Year to 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread with 200-Day Moving Average (Daily)
Alternative Assets to Monitor: Emerging Markets, Euro, Gold and OilWhile there are those assets that are right in the middle of the fundamental fireworks (USDCNH) and others that are simply so systemically important as to inevitably reflect the seismic shifts in the financial system (S&P 500), there are other specific markets that should be monitored to closely. While China is directly engaged with the US in the tit-for-tat economic fight, the emerging markets have been absorbing a lot of the collateral damage from the stand off. Should the situation deteriorate or improve, this highly risk-leveraged asset would likely exhibit a strong response. Chart of EEM Emerging Market ETF and CNH/USD Rate (Daily)
Given the precarious position of the US Dollar – breaking critical support on a 13-month rising bull trend only to stop immediately below support – there is a potential risk of volatility. While the Greenback is staged for a significant rise or fall, we must in turn consider where the capital is diverted towards or away from. More often than not, market preference tends to follow the lines of liquidity. In the FX market, in particular any flight from the world’s largest market would find a disproportionate appetite for the second most liquid. That is the Euro; which though it has its own issues, they are not considered pressing. For the Pound and Yen, the Brexit anchor and leverage afforded carry crosses will likely redirect capital flow. Consider a strong indirect move for the Euro that takes advantage of a counterpart that is held in the trance of anticipation for an event risk even further out. That scenario describes EURGBP well. Chart of EURGBP with Consecutive Candle Count (Weekly)
Finally, a word on the two commodities I review most often when evaluating the global markets. First, gold has seen its climb falter these past few days as the Dollar has steadied and risk trends have leveled out. This is neither an easy Greenback counterpart nor straight forward safe haven. Instead, the precious metal is a reflection of existential fear over the stability of sovereign assets and currencies. If trade wars were too sudden clear, it still wouldn’t absolve the depreciation of currency through central bank easing. Oil on the other hand is a little more straightforward with its exposure. A growth and risk asset, it has climbed advanced 8 straight days through Thursday to match the longest climb since January 2010. That is likely nervous anxiety rather than true conviction of economic potential – much like equities. Chart of Gold and Consecutive Candle Count (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-06-28 03:12:00 Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| USD/CNH Price Action Spikes Ahead of G20 Posted: 27 Jun 2019 02:08 PM PDT Hits: 18 CURRENCY VOLATILITY, USD/CNH, G20 SUMMIT – TALKING POINTS
High-impact event risk surrounding the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan this weekend looks set to stir currency volatility. According to various USD/CNH implied volatility measures, forex option traders are pricing in the most expected volatility since early May when US President Trump announced plans to increase tariffs. The last time USD/CNH implied volatility climbed this steeply, spot prices ascended sharply from the 6.75 handle to the 6.95 level in a matter of days as the Chinese Yuan depreciated against the US Dollar in response to trade war escalation and rampant risk-aversion. SPOT USD/CNH IMPLIED VOLATILITY: DAILY TIME FRAME (JUNE 27, 2018 TO JUNE 27, 2019)The renminbi has attempted to trim some of its downside against the greenback subsequent to the release of the China Trade War White Paper, however, which detailed the Asian nation's open-mindedness to continue trade negotiations with the United States. Shortly thereafter, risk assets like stocks and the CNY jumped when news broke that Trump and Xi will meet on June 29 at the G20 Summit. While it seems that the dust has since settled from the flareup in trade tensions at the beginning of May, little is expected in terms of substantive progress toward landing a trade deal between the world's largest two economies. Yet some optimism has emerged that trade relations could get back on track and prompt President Trump to delay hiking tariffs on China – as he did earlier this year citing trade talk progress. As such, it appears that much is riding on the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting at the G20 summit in Japan this weekend. USD/CNH PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (APRIL 12, 2019 TO JUNE 27, 2019)
If US and China trade negotiators can find some common ground and relations do in fact show material improvement, spot USD/CNH threatens to whipsaw lower. News that President Trump will no longer pursue levying additional tariffs on China is a probable catalyst for this scenario. In response, reduced pressure on that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to combat US tariffs and the downfalls of an escalating trade war by depreciating the Yuan could keep spot USD/CNH bid. Conversely, spot USD/CNH risks rising if the US China trade war gridlock intensifies or simply drags on. That being said, USD/CNH 1-week implied volatility of 7.62 percent can be used to calculate the currency pair's 1-standard deviation trading range of 6.8042-6.9492 which, statistically speaking, encompasses price action 68 percent of the time. Spot USD/CNH has wedged itself between a short-term bearish downtrend and longer-term rising bullish trendline with the tightly-coiled currency pair looking primed to breakout soon which is further suggested by evidence of rising Yuan currency volatility. The 23.6 percent and 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement levels of the leg higher from late April to early June, which look to serve as nearside technical resistance and support respectively. —– Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| FX Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, USD/JPY and AUD/USD Posted: 27 Jun 2019 01:30 PM PDT Hits: 15 FX Price Action Talking Points:
US Dollar Takes on Bearish Tone Ahead of Q3 OpenThe US Dollar's bullish trend may have met its match in the month of June as a bearish theme appeared following a dovish flip at the Fed. But – is the bank at the point where rate cuts might be an actual possibility? The short-side of the US Dollar can remain as interesting as the second-half of 2019 nears. US Dollar Daily Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley EURUSD Continued Short Squeeze PotentialI've been following the long side of EURUSD over the past month as a series of bear traps had shown in the month of May. As USD weakness began to get ramped up, EURUSD turned higher and has continued to push in fresh higher-highs and higher-lows. This keeps the door open for a move up towards the 1.1448-1.1500 zone of prior resistance. Another area of potential support lurks below in the pair, taken from prior resistance around the 1.1250 area. EURUSD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley GBPUSD Sellers Defend 1.2750For themes of USD strength, GBPUSD can remain of interest. Even as the brute portion of the recent USD move was getting priced-in, GBPUSD remained rather subdued, finding sellers at the 1.2750 level since late-May. This can keep the door open for bearish themes in the pair, looking for prices to move down towards the 1.2523 Fibonacci level that helped set the June low. GBPUSD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley AUDUSD Re-Tests Key ResistanceAlso on the side of long-USD scenarios, AUDUSD has recently started to re-test a key zone on the chart. I had looked at this level earlier in June for resistance potential, and that led in to a hold of the highs which was followed by a fresh five-month-low. As USD weakness has gotten priced-in throughout the month, prices have bounced back. This keeps the door open for short-side scenarios on the pair, particularly for those looking at strategies around a return of USD-strength. AUDUSD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley USDJPY Tests Lower-High Resistance at Confluent Spot on the ChartUSDJPY has been one of my favored pairs for short side USD exposure for over a month now; and the pair has done a great job of mirroring overall risk tones for a good portion of this year. I had looked at short-side setups off of the 108.47-108.70 zone a couple of weeks ago; and it took a while for that to fill-in, but the initial 107.00 target was hit earlier this week. As I wrote on Tuesday, the pair may be due for a pullback, and with a strong area of prior support very nearby around the 108-handle, this could be an interesting area to follow. That price has since come into play and sellers have thus far responded, keeping the door open for a continuation of lower-lows and lower-highs in USDJPY. USDJPY Eight-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley To read more:Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Bitcoin, Litecoin, XRP Price Outlook: Cryptos Continue Slide Posted: 27 Jun 2019 12:53 PM PDT Hits: 18 Bitcoin, Litecoin, XRP Price Outlook:
Bitcoin, Litecoin, XRP Price Outlook: Cryptos Continue SlideAfter Bitcoin dropped roughly $2,000 in 10 minutes on Wednesday, the cryptocurrency market has experienced elevated volatility ever since. Alongside BTCUSD, Litecoin and XRP suffered declines of varying magnitude. Regardless, the three cryptocurrencies still enjoy positive returns in the year-to-date at 186%, 265% and 7.5% respectively. As the weekend approaches and the prospect of heightened volatility along with it, here are the price levels to watch for some of the major digital assets. Bitcoin Price Chart: 1 – Hour Time Frame (June 20 – 27) (Chart 1)As evidenced by Wednesday's price action, Bitcoin will take cues from the two nearest Fib levels at $13,500 and $11,500. Further, the 200-day moving average on the hourly chart buoyed price once on Thursday already, which speaks to its price influence. To that end, continued tests of the line speak to bearish interest while simultaneously displaying the unwillingness of bulls to surrender the level. Should bears win out, the $10,000 psychological level and the 38.2% Fib at $9,545 will come into play as subsequent areas of support. Bitcoin Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January – June) (Chart 2)
While the near-term appears relatively weak, a snapshot of the longer-term remains constructive for trend continuation. Critically, the ascending trendline beginning in mid-May will be an important level to watch if earlier lines of defense are taken out. Litecoin Price OutlookWith a year-to-date return of 265%, Litecoin's ascent rivals that of the Falcon Heavy Rocket. That being said, LTCUSD is experiencing turbulence of its own – plummeting from recent highs around $145 to trade around $115 at the time of this article's publication. Litecoin Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January – June) (Chart 3)
From the technical perspective, a close above $116 – the 23.6% Fib from the coin's all-time high to its recent low in December 2018 – would offer encouragement for the future. If LTC is unable to deliver such a performance, the $100 psychological level will be the next on the chopping block. To the topside, an ascending trendline from April will be the first test, with subsequent resistance at the recent highs around $140. XRP Price OutlookUnlike BTC and LTC, XRP has had an unremarkable year and is clinging to its remaining gains. After tumbling beneath the 61.8% Fib at 0.4565, XRP runs the risk of becoming trapped between the 61.8 and the 78.6 beneath – as it was during most of May and June. In this scenario, the 78.6 Fib at 0.3650 is the line in the sand to which XRP will look to hold above before the 200-day moving average enters the frame. XRP Price Chart: Daily Time Frame (January – June) (Chart 4)
Despite the immense volatility and uncertainty, IG Client Sentiment Data reveals traders remain net-long all cryptocurrencies offered by IG. For further insight on retail positioning in the cryptocurrency market, sign up for my IG Client Sentiment Walkthrough Webinar. In the meantime, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter for technical and fundamental analysis on Bitcoin and other major assets. –Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX Read more:Stock Market Forecast: Nike Earnings to Influence Dow Jones Index http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| Gold Price Rally Cools as Traders Await G20 Summit Posted: 27 Jun 2019 12:17 PM PDT Hits: 13 Gold Price Talking Points: – With the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, markets have started to seize up in anticipation of a potentially significant announcement coming out of the weekend. US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping will meet on the sidelines to try and end the US-China trade war. – Gold volatility, as measured by the Cboe's ETF, GVZ (which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD ETF option chain) has come down in recent days, pulling lower gold prices in the process. – Retail traders' holdings are beginning to warn that positioning may weigh on the gold price rally soon. Looking for longer-term forecasts on Gold and Silver prices? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides. With the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, markets have started to seize up in anticipation of a potentially significant announcement coming out of the weekend. US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jingping will meet on the sidelines to try and end the US-China trade war. The relationship between the G20 summit and gold prices seem fairly obvious: if uncertainty around Federal Reserve interest rate policy remains thanks to the US-China trade war, gold volatility will remain elevated. The G20 summit in Osaka, Japan this coming weekend offers a critical litmus test for the recent gold price rally: a deal could scuttle even the best laid technical patterns for higher prices due to the feedback loop around the timing of Fed rate cuts. Gold Volatility Stays in the Driver's Seat Gold volatility has been the biggest supporting factor of the gold price rally, it's genesis in the uncertainty created by the US-China trade war and its potential impact on Fed interest rates. The uncertain path forward translates into volatility in financial markets. While other asset classes don't like increased volatility (signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc.), precious metals tend to benefit from periods of higher volatility as uncertainty increases the appeal of gold's and silver's safe haven appeal. That we've seen gold volatility come down as traders seek more clarity out of the G20 summit has been a negative development for gold prices in the short-term. GVZ (Gold Volatility) Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (September 2017 to June 2019) (Chart 1) Earlier this week, gold volatility (as measured by the Cboe's gold volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD option chain) lodged its highest close of 2019 and its highest close since December 16, 2016. As we've previously noted, "the breakout in gold volatility underpins the breakout in gold prices." This continues to ring true, as both the 5-day and 20-day correlations between gold prices (XAU/USD) and gold volatility (GVZ) are a near-perfect 0.93 and 0.98, respectively. Gold Price Rally Fit the Definition of Overbought In our gold price technical review at the start of the week, we said that "traders should remain cautious." Why? Gold prices had exhibited the same type of price action it had in the previous five instances in which gold prices in which gold prices were more than 2% above their daily 21-EMA (i.e. overbought). During those prior instances, gold prices averaged a 1-week return of -0.55%. Since Monday's high, gold prices have dropped by -1.01%. If we are still are in the throes of a longer-term rally, then this will not be the top. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (July 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 2)
Keeping in mind the technical perspective that the gold price rally is overbought, we may not be topping but rather in the midst of another healthy correction, not dissimilar from what was experienced in the middle of June. It still holds that "only if gold prices move below the daily 8-EMA, which has held up as support on a closing basis every session since the bullish outside engulfing bar on May 30, would the near-term bullish outlook for gold prices become invalid." If the daily 8-EMA is maintained on a closing basis, technicals still potentially see gold prices aiming for the 100% extension of the gold price rally from the August 2018 low, February 2019 high, and May 2019 low at 1452.72. If the daily 8-EMA is lost, then a deeper setback for gold prices might ensue towards the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern near 1355/65. IG Client Sentiment Index: Spot Gold Price Forecast (June 24, 2019) (Chart 3)
Spot gold price: Retail trader data shows 60.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.51 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.3% higher than yesterday and 20.9% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is unchanged than yesterday and 12.4% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests spot gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger spot gold price-bearish contrarian trading bias. FX TRADING RESOURCES Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| EUR/USD Breakout Eyes Yearly Open into Q3 Posted: 27 Jun 2019 09:11 AM PDT Hits: 8 The Euro is virtually unchanged against the US Dollar since the start of the week with price holding just below yearly Fibonacci resistance into the close of the month / quarter. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Review this week's Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Euro setup and more. New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide EUR/USD Price Chart – Euro WeeklyNotes: In my last EUR/USD Weekly Price Outlook our 'bottom line' noted that, "Euro held long-term slope support for over two months with the breach above channel resistance this week shifting the focus back to the long-side as we head deeper into June trade." The rally extended into initial weekly resistance targets this week at the 61.8% retracement of the yearly range at 1.1393 with more significant resistance is eyed just higher at the 2019 open at 1.1445– risk for near-term exhaustion heading into these levels. Critical support remains at 1.1187 with a break / close below 1.1107 needed to suggest a larger breakdown is underway. For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy Bottom line: The Euro breakout is testing initial resistance targets here around 1.14 and while the broader focus remains higher, the advance is vulnerable near-term heading into the yearly open- Watch the weekly / monthly close tomorrow. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. Be on the lookout for topside exhaustion here if price fails to close above- ultimately, we'll favor fading weakness while above 1.1270 targeting a test of 1.1445.Review my latest EUR/USD Technical Outlook for a closer look at the near-term Loonie trading levels. Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading EUR/USD Trader Sentiment
See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment! — Key Euro / US Data Releases
Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide! Previous Weekly Technical ChartsLearn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide — Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get luxurious from fx trading? The reply is if you go from canadian forex, and gradual forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is circulate in forex 1 greenback canadian, netdania forex, submit overloaded plus of the forex system indicators, and account the counselling fx strategy. We present win win all.  |
| You are subscribed to email updates from Analyst Articles – Forex News 24. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
No comments:
Post a Comment