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Forex News 24


June 3, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 01:58 PM PDT

Hits: 3


On March 29, a visit towards the price levels of 1.2980 (the lower limit of the newly-established bearish movement channel) could bring the GBPUSD pair again towards the upper limit of the minor bearish channel around (1.3160-1.3180).

Since then, Short-term outlook has turned into bearish with intermediate-term bearish targets projected towards 1.2900 and 1.2850.

On April 26, another bullish pullback was initiated towards 1.3000 (the same bottom of March 29) which has been breached to the upside until May 13 when a bearish Head and Shoulders pattern was demonstrated on the H4 chart with neckline located around 1.2980-1.3020.

Bearish persistence below 1.2980 enhanced further bearish decline.

Initial bearish Targets were already reached around 1.2900-1.2870 (the backside of the broken channel) which failed to provide any bullish support for the GBPUSD pair.

Further bearish decline was demonstrated towards the lower limit of the long-term channel around (1.2700-1.2650).

The GBPUSD pair looks oversold around the current price levels (1.2650-1.2600). That’s why, SELL signals shouldn’t be considered at such low prices.

On the other hand, bullish persistence above 1.2650 and 1.2750 is needed to enhance the bullish side of the market towards 1.2870 (Bottom of April 26).

Trade Recommendations:

Counter-trend traders can wait for a bullish breakout above 1.2650 as a valid BUY signal. T/P level to be located around 1.2750 and 1.2820. S/L to be located below 1.2600.

Conservative traders should wait for another bullish pullback towards 1.2870-1.2905 (newly-established supply zone) to look for valid sell entries. S/L should be placed above 1.2950.

The material has been provided by InstaForex Company – www.instaforex.com
2019-06-03 14:57:01



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Mexico Tariffs Spell Bad News for Chevron Stock

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 01:53 PM PDT

Hits: 7


Shares of Chevron (NYSE:CVX) have traded lower ever since U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on Mexico in late May and with good reason. Chevron is the third largest U.S. importer of Mexican crude oil, importing around 108,000 barrels of oil per day in February. A 5% tariff on those 108,000 barrels of oil per day would add up over time. The company's cost basis would rise, margins would fall and profits would ultimately suffer.

Chevron stock cvx stock

Thus, CVX stock has traded lower ever since Trump announced intentions to implement that 5% Mexico tariff on June 10.

In the big picture, CVX stock will likely be stuck in neutral for the foreseeable future. Tariffs threaten higher costs for the oil giant. At the same time, they threaten lower demand through a global economic slowdown. Higher costs and lower demand is a deadly combo. Meanwhile, the stock isn't expensive. But it's not cheap, either.

Net net, CVX doesn't look great here, but it doesn't look awful. The stock will likely trade sideways for the foreseeable future so long as the valuation remains mixed and the growth fundamentals remain challenged by macro headwinds.

Macro Headwinds Challenge The Bull Thesis

Zooming out, the macro-economic picture behind Chevron stock isn't all that favorable today and ultimately implies that the growth trajectory going forward will be muted, at best.

Right now, the global economy is one defined by escalating trade tensions and slowing growth. Neither of those things are good for Chevron. On one end, escalating trade tensions result in tariffs, and Chevron is a big oil importer and exporter that has broad exposure to tariffs. Thus, escalating trade tensions will translate into higher costs and lower profit margins for Chevron.

On the other end, slowing global growth results in lower consumer demand for oil. Lower consumer demand will result in slower revenue growth for Chevron.

Ultimately, then, today's economic backdrop implies slower revenue growth and lower margins for Chevron going forward. That's a bad combination. Slower revenue growth plus lower margins equals reduced profit growth.

Stocks go as their profits go. Thus, if Chevron's profit growth slows, gains in CVX stock will moderate, too.

A Mixed Valuation Reduces Downside Risk

The one thing that could save CVX stock from a big downtrend here is valuation. In short, the stock is already fully priced for slower growth going forward, so if/when slower growth materializes, CVX stock may not get hit as hard as it would otherwise.

The valuation here is very reasonable. Chevron stock trades at 15-times forward earnings with a 4% dividend yield. That is a below market average multiple and an above market average yield. Thus, relative to the market, CVX stock is cheaper with a bigger yield. This discounted valuation provides some cushion for reduced profit growth going forward.

If trade headwinds do clear and tariffs go away completely, then Chevron's growth profile will improve meaningfully. The margin outlook will improve. As will the revenue growth outlook and the profit growth outlook. In that scenario, improving fundamentals will converge on a relatively discounted valuation, and CVX stock could pop in a meaningfully way.

But if trade headwinds don't clear and tariffs stick around, then Chevron's growth profile will remain depressed. So long as this remains true, the currently discounted valuation is warranted, and CVX stock will trade sideways.

Right now, it's anyone's guess as to what will happen on the trade front. As such, CVX stock seems a bit too risky at the current moment. Investors should probably wait for more clarity on the trade situation before taking a bite into Chevron stock.

Bottom Line on CVX Stock

As a big oil company with global import/export exposure, Chevron is significantly at risk to escalating trade conflicts and the threat of rising tariffs. So long as these risks hang around, CVX stock will have trouble making upward progress. But once those headwinds clear, this stock is cheap enough to where it could stage a sizable rally.

As of this writing, Luke Lango did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities. 

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The SKEW Index and Stock Market Crashes

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 01:50 PM PDT

Hits: 4


The SKEW Index and Stock Market Crashes:

  • Despite rising global uncertainty, an indicator that tracks the potential for a Black Swan event has slipped to decade-lows
  • But according to past performance, the Index has been a poor indicator of stock market volatility
  • Interested in stock market volatility? Check out an introductory article on CBOE's VIX Index

Volatility: The SKEW Index and Stock Market Crashes

The recent bout of stock market turbulence has seen volatility levels tick higher, but lack a significant surge. On the other hand, one lesser-watched index that seeks to measure the probability of tail-risk events extreme moves higher or more often lower – recently matched its lowest reading from the past decade. The SKEW Index, curated by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE), ticked beneath 112 on May 29 – just the third such occurrence since April 2009.

The SKEW Index measures the perceived tail-risk in the S&P 500 – based on the implied volatility of out-of-the-money options, whereas the VIX considers the implied volatility of at-the-money options. "Tail risk" is the chance that an event will occur outside one standard deviation from the mean. Given how the Index is derived, it measures the slope of implied volatility – which can then be displayed as the probability of a two or three standard deviation move for the S&P 500 in the next 30 days.

Will the Stock Market Crash in 2019?

That probability is then reflected within a range – typically from 100 to 150 – where a higher reading suggests the market is perceiving greater risk of a Grey Swan event. At 130, there is approximately a 10% chance of the S&P 500 making a two-standard deviation move over the next thirty days – while the probability of a three-standard deviation move is just 2%.

SKEW Index probabilities

Source: CBOE

Although it attempts to gauge the market's view on tail-risk and financial crashes, it does not provide insight on whether a statistically anomalous event will actually take place. Further, SKEW is a poor indicator of stock market volatility according to historical performance – especially with the Black or Grey Swan events it tries to forecast. Since 2000, the 5-largest single-day draw downs for the S&P 500 had average SKEW reading of 113.53 the day before the decline.

S&P 500 crashes and SKEW reading

Thus, the SKEW Index provides little value when attempting to gauge these extreme sell-offs. It does however, offer insight on investor sentiment. Like the VIX, SKEW can display heightened levels of investor fear – even without a simultaneous drawdown in price. That said, the notably low reading on May 28 is concerning as the S&P 500 continues to slide – while option traders see little chance of a crash, so much so that it may suggest complacency. For other equity analysis, follow @PeterHanksFX on Twitter.

–Written by Peter Hanks, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Peter on Twitter @PeterHanksFX

Read more: Grey Swans: Low Probability Events to watch for in 2019

DailyFX forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you're looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you're looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

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2019-06-03 20:25:00

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5 Top Stock Trades for Tuesday: FB, QQQ, GLD

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 01:17 PM PDT

Hits: 8


The broader market continued lower on Monday, despite falling for four straight weeks at this point. However, large cap tech was at the center of investors' attention on Monday, with government investigations into whether there are antitrust issues among some of the U.S.'s largest tech companies. Let's look at some top stock trades for Tuesday.

Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #1: Facebook

top stock trades for FB
Click to Enlarge
Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) was hit hard, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL, NASDAQ:GOOG) was hit harder and Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) was hit the hardest on Monday.

Facebook bounced off its session lows and still fell about 7.5%. Ouch. For now, it's holding its 200-day moving average, which is more than many stocks can stay. Still, it doesn't look all that healthy.

Learn how to spot short-term clues in some of these charts. For instance, FB stock lost its 20-day moving average and couldn't reclaim it as support (purple arrow). You'll see the same on the next chart. Then FB lost its 50-day moving averages and headed lower.

It's not a guaranteed setup of course — nothing is — but it can give clues to traders on when to lighten up their position. These antitrust concerns could persist and weigh on Facebook going forward. So watch near Monday's lows. Just below it is the 200-day moving average, gap-up support and the 61.8% retracement for the 52-week range.

Below $159.50 and a gap fill down to ~$150 is in the cards.

Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #2: PowerShares QQQ

 

top stock trades for QQQtop stock trades for QQQ
Click to Enlarge

The moving-average breakdown is also apparent on the PowerShares QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ). Given the selling pressure we're seeing in FANG, the QQQ's 2.4% decline on Monday is no surprise.

It opens it to a test of its 50% retracement near $167 and below that, the 61.8% near $162. Shares are already ~11% off the highs from about a month ago. That's a very quiet and calm 10%+ correction in a month.

Will we go down 15%? How about 20%? At this point, I don't think we revisit the December lows, but I could see an accelerated selloff taking place to get some panic into the market. That seems to be the one thing we've been missing: panic. Capitulation is often needed for bottoms. That is, unless we start to get some trade-war improvements.

Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #3: Starbucks

top stock trades for SBUXtop stock trades for SBUX
Click to Enlarge

Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) has been a name showing relative strength through most of this selloff. But in mid-May, we started to see some weakness develop.

Keep in mind just what a stud this name has been. A year ago, it was changing hands near $46 and a few weeks ago it was at $80. Just look how it did in Q4. Yeah, this thing has been a total beast.

However, we saw it lose its 50-day last week, albeit only for a day. Still, the 20-day has started to weigh on SBUX stock, uptrend support (blue line) is gone and we could see a similar setup to the QQQ. That is, where the 20-day turns to resistance and the 50-day eventually gives way.

That's very possible, and I could see SBUX down at $72 if we get some selling pressure. Over the 20-day could send it back to $78+, but bulls may not want to be too aggressive in this environment. Watch the 50-day and should it break, keep an eye on last week's low.

Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #4: Gold

 

top stock trades for GLDtop stock trades for GLD
Click to Enlarge

The SPDR Gold ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) is getting a nice bid — as are Treasuries — as investors search for safety. Last week's rally snapped GLD out of its downtrend and this week's spark is adding to the gains.

I want to see the 20-week moving average hold as support. On the upside, see if GLD can test $128.

Top Stock Trades for Tomorrow #5: Semiconductors

top stock trades for SMHtop stock trades for SMH

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) rallied big on the day (on this news), but saw its gains fizzle out. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) has been a disgrace, falling about 25% in five weeks. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) continues to cling to its lows.

In other words, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NYSEARCA:SMH) has been under pressure.

The SMH spent much of 2018 in a wedge, which eventually resolved lower. But then semis were able to rally too, with the SMH climbing to $120 about six weeks ago. Since then, it has lost both prior wedge support and resistance, as it hovers under the 50-week and 200-day moving average.

The action is discouraging to say the least. The setup looks bearish and if the SMH loses last week's low, it will likely test the 61.8% retracement at $96. Below that and $93 is likely the next line in the sand.

Bret Kenwell is the manager and author of Future Blue Chips and is on Twitter @BretKenwell. As of this writing, Bret Kenwell is long AMZN, GOOGL, SBUX and NVDA. 

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June ECB Rate Decision & EURUSD Price Forecast

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 01:15 PM PDT

Hits: 11


ECB Meeting Talking Points:

  • The June European Central Bank rate decision and policy meeting will arrive on Thursday, June 6 at 11:45 GMT.
  • Ongoing soft PMI readings and eroding inflation expectations have raised the odds of the ECB taking dovish policy actions this week – but that much is already expected by FX markets.
  • Recent changes in retail trader positioning suggest that EURUSD could trade higher in the coming days.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

06/06 THURSDAY | 11:45 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

The European Central Bank meets this week to try and shore up investor confidence. With regional PMI readings stumbling and Eurozone inflation expectations sliding lower over the past several months, calls have grown for the ECB to take more substantive action at its June rate decision and policy meeting; the timing is primarily because new Staff Economic Projections will be released this week as well.

For the staff economic projections, traders should be expecting cuts to both the 2020 CPI and GDP forecasts, as well as a potential cut to the 2021 forecasts. The inflation outlook will be particularly interesting, insofar as inflation expectations have plummeted and such events have historically coincided with fresh stimulus from the ECB.

While new stimulus is unlikely this coming week, that is solely due to the previously announced TLTRO3 program which has yet to see its details fleshed out yet. The context of disappointing economic trends otherwise may mean that this is now the opportune time for the ECB to provide clarity here, thereby helping insulate markets. If so, the Euro may not see much weakness around the ECB on Thursday.

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, EURJPY, EURUSD

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (September 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 1)

When we last gave a technical overview of EURUSD, it was noted that "since bottoming out on April 26, EURUSD prices have been trading sideways between 1.1110 and 1.1265, with the May 1 high established after Fed Chair Powell spoke at the May Fed meeting press conference." We've yet to see a close outside of this range in the past several weeks, although the time for a breakout may be fast approaching.

The EURUSD price forecast may be shifting to bullish as the downtrend from the January, February, April, and May 2019 highs appears ready to give way to a topside move. From a certain perspective, EURUSD prices have been consolidating in a bullish falling wedge since the start of December 2018, which would suggest that a bottoming effort is indeed in process.

If a turn is developing, EURUSD prices will need to clear out more than just the 2019 downtrend. Ideally, bulls would see EURUSD price clear out 1.1265 – the May 1 around the Fed meeting and Fed Chair Powell's press conference – establishing a new trend of higher highs in the process.

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURUSD (June 3, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs eurusd, eurusd price chart, eurusd price forecast, eurusd technical forecast

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 55.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.22 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 15 when EURUSD traded near 1.1231; price has moved 0.1% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 13.7% lower than yesterday and 4.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 36.4% higher than yesterday and 6.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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2019-06-03 18:15:00

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Top 10 problems you may need in life:

01. Espresso Machines review|
02. Gaming Keyboards review|
03. Gaming Headsets review|
04. Virtual Reality Headsets review|
05. Cordless Drills review|
06. Electric Keyboards review|
07. Gaming Mouse review|
08. Gaming Monitors review|
09. Gaming Laptops review|
10. WiFi Routers review|

June ECB Rate Decision & EURUSD Price Forecast

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 12:43 PM PDT

Hits: 1


ECB Meeting Talking Points:

  • The June European Central Bank rate decision and policy meeting will arrive on Thursday, June 6 at 11:45 GMT.
  • Ongoing soft PMI readings and eroding inflation expectations have raised the odds of the ECB taking dovish policy actions this week – but that much is already expected by FX markets.
  • Recent changes in retail trader positioning suggest that EURUSD could trade higher in the coming days.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

06/06 THURSDAY | 11:45 GMT | EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision

The European Central Bank meets this week to try and shore up investor confidence. With regional PMI readings stumbling and Eurozone inflation expectations sliding lower over the past several months, calls have grown for the ECB to take more substantive action at its June rate decision and policy meeting; the timing is primarily because new Staff Economic Projections will be released this week as well.

For the staff economic projections, traders should be expecting cuts to both the 2020 CPI and GDP forecasts, as well as a potential cut to the 2021 forecasts. The inflation outlook will be particularly interesting, insofar as inflation expectations have plummeted and such events have historically coincided with fresh stimulus from the ECB.

While new stimulus is unlikely this coming week, that is solely due to the previously announced TLTRO3 program which has yet to see its details fleshed out yet. The context of disappointing economic trends otherwise may mean that this is now the opportune time for the ECB to provide clarity here, thereby helping insulate markets. If so, the Euro may not see much weakness around the ECB on Thursday.

Pairs to Watch: EURGBP, EURJPY, EURUSD

EURUSD Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (September 2018 to June 2019) (Chart 1)

eurusd price forecast, eurusd technical analysis, eurusd price chart, eurusd chart, eurusd price

When we last gave a technical overview of EURUSD, it was noted that "since bottoming out on April 26, EURUSD prices have been trading sideways between 1.1110 and 1.1265, with the May 1 high established after Fed Chair Powell spoke at the May Fed meeting press conference." We've yet to see a close outside of this range in the past several weeks, although the time for a breakout may be fast approaching.

The EURUSD price forecast may be shifting to bullish as the downtrend from the January, February, April, and May 2019 highs appears ready to give way to a topside move. From a certain perspective, EURUSD prices have been consolidating in a bullish falling wedge since the start of December 2018, which would suggest that a bottoming effort is indeed in process.

If a turn is developing, EURUSD prices will need to clear out more than just the 2019 downtrend. Ideally, bulls would see EURUSD price clear out 1.1265 – the May 1 around the Fed meeting and Fed Chair Powell's press conference – establishing a new trend of higher highs in the process.

IG Client Sentiment Index: EURUSD (June 3, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs eurusd, eurusd price chart, eurusd price forecast, eurusd technical forecast

EURUSD: Retail trader data shows 55.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.22 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 15 when EURUSD traded near 1.1231; price has moved 0.1% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 13.7% lower than yesterday and 4.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 36.4% higher than yesterday and 6.3% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EURUSD trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX





Source link

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Top 10 problems you may need in life:

01. Espresso Machines review|
02. Gaming Keyboards review|
03. Gaming Headsets review|
04. Virtual Reality Headsets review|
05. Cordless Drills review|
06. Electric Keyboards review|
07. Gaming Mouse review|
08. Gaming Monitors review|
09. Gaming Laptops review|
10. WiFi Routers review|

The 4 FANG Stocks Are Getting Pummeled on Trade War Worries

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 12:41 PM PDT

Hits: 7


It's going from bad to worse for the largest and most important stocks on Wall Street. I'm talking about the FANG stocks that, on account of their huge market capitalizations, carry outsized significance in the widely held averages like the S&P 500.

The entire sector is getting slammed on worries President Trump is preparing to take a much firmer anti-trust stance against the tech giants on anti-trust grounds. A tact the Europeans have taken for years. This also comes at a time when the tech industry finds itself at the center of the deepening U.S.-China trade rift, with the White House pressuring U.S. firms to isolate China's Huawei.

The FANG stocks aren't immune, despite their size and popularity. Here's a look at the charts.

Facebook (FB)


Click to Enlarge

Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) shares are dropping hard out of a seven-month uptrend, violating critical support near its 50-day moving average. This marks a 14%+ decline from the high set in late April. The company has been also caught up in reports of tighter regulatory scrutiny for big-tech firms as it continues to reel from scandal after scandal.

The company will next report results on July 24 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of $1.85 per share on revenues of $16.5 billion. When the company last reported on April 24, earnings of $1.89 beat estimates by 28 cents per share on a 26% rise in revenues.

 

Amazon (AMZN)


Click to Enlarge

Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) shares are cutting below their 200-day moving average, testing the $1,700-a-share level and support from the top of a three-month trading range suffered between January and March. The Washington Post reported over the weekend that anti-trust regulators in the United States have put the company under the watch of the Federal Trade Commission — potentially foreshadowing increased regulation for the largest tech companies like the FANG stocks.

The company will next report results on July 25 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of $5.51 per share on revenues of $62.5 billion. When the company last reported on April 25, earnings of $7.09 per share beat estimates by $2.43 on a 17% rise in revenues.

Netflix (NFLX)


Click to Enlarge

Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) shares are threatening to break down below their 200-day moving average, which would put an end to a six-month sideways range and mark another failed attempt to push beyond prior highs set in the summer of 2018. While the company isn't the focus of anti-trust concerns like the other FANG stocks, that's because it's in the middle of an incredibly competitive online streaming industry with fresh challengers like Disney (NYSE:DIS) and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) pushing in on its turf.

The company will next report results on July 15 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of 56 cents per share on revenuers of $4.9 billion. When the company last reported on April 16, earnings of 63 cents per share beat estimates by six cents on a 22.2% rise in revenues.

Alphabet (GOOG,GOOGL)


Click to Enlarge

Google parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL,NASDAQ:GOOG) — the G of the FANG stocks — is watching in horror as shares drop nearly 7% in mid-day trading on Monday, rapidly falling away from its 200-day moving average to test the December-January lows. This marks a 20% decline from the high set in late April, qualifying for an outright bear market. This comes after reports in the Wall Street Journal that the U.S. Justice Department is preparing an anti-trust investigation of the company.

Management will next report results on July 22 after the close. Analysts are looking for earnings of $11.94 per share on revenues of $38.3 billion. When the company last reported on April 29, earnings of $9.50 missed estimates by 94 cents per share on a 16.7% rise in revenues.

As of this writing, the author held no positions in the aforementioned securities.

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FX Week Ahead – Top 5 Events: RBA Rate Decision, Eurozone Inflation, ECB Meeting, Canada & US Jobs

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 12:39 PM PDT

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TOP 5 EVENTS TALKING POINTS:

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Tuesday meeting will very likely see a 25-bps rate cut, but that is widely expected by markets, with overnight index swaps pricing in a 93% chance of a cut coming into this week.
  • The June European Central Bank meeting on Thursday should see more details about the TLTRO program come to light alongside a cut in both the growth and inflation forecasts.
  • May US jobs data on Friday should show ongoing strength in the US labor market.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

06/04 TUESDAY | 04:30 GMT | AUD RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA RATE DECISION

In the interim period since the last RBA meeting in May, rates markets have continued to pull forward expectations of a 25-bps rate cut into the first half of 2019. After the May RBA meeting, there was a 59% chance of a 25-bps rate cut in June; currently, those odds sit at 93%.

Given that market pricing is very tight as is –there is a 70% chance of a second 25-bps rate cut by September (overall, a 79% chance of two cuts in 2019) – it will take a lot for the RBA to not disappoint steep dovish expectations. When a policy decision is priced-in this far in advance, it shouldn't be a surprise if the corresponding currency (in this case, the Australian Dollar) doesn't respond with a significant price reaction.

Read the full report: June RBA Rate Decision & AUDUSD Price Forecast

06/04 TUESDAY | 09:00 GMT | EUR EUROZONE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (MAY A)

The preliminary May Eurozone Consumer Price Index is due on Tuesday, just days before European Central Bank policymakers meet for their June policy meeting. According to Bloomberg News, the headline Eurozone inflation reading is due in at 1.3% from 1.7% (y/y), while the core reading is due in at 0.9% from 1.3% (y/y).

With inflation expectations falling precipitously in the past few weeks – since May 5, the 5y5y inflation swap forwards have declined by 10-bps from 1.404% to 1.291% – it's seems highly likely that the May inflation report will not only be weak, but it will be used as the basis for more dovish policy action by the ECB at their June meeting.

Read the full report: May Eurozone Inflation Report & EURJPY Price Forecast

06/06 THURSDAY | 11:45 GMT | EUR EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK RATE DECISION

The European Central Bank meets this week to try and shore up investor confidence. With regional PMI readings stumbling and Eurozone inflation expectations sliding lower over the past several months, calls have grown for the ECB to take more substantive action at its June rate decision and policy meeting; the timing is primarily because new Staff Economic Projections will be released this week as well.

While new stimulus is unlikely this coming week, that is solely due to the previously announced TLTRO3 program which has yet to see its details fleshed out yet. The context of disappointing economic trends otherwise may mean that this is now the opportune time for the ECB to provide clarity here, thereby helping insulate markets. If so, the Euro may not see much weakness around the ECB on Thursday.

Read the full report: June ECB Rate Decision & EURUSD Price Forecast

06/07 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD EMPLOYMENT CHANGE & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (MAY)

The strength seen in the Canadian labor market in recent months has helped keep rate cut expectations at bay. Two months ago, overnight index swaps were pricing in a 21% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by the end of September; now, those odds are higher at 33%. If there is going to be a 25-bps rate cut by the BOC in the next several months, overnight index swaps are favoring October 2019.

Read the full report: May Canada Jobs Report & USDCAD Price Forecast

06/07 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | USD CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS & UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (MAY)

The US labor market has been the pillar of stability for the US economy for several years now, and even as Q2'19 US GDP expectations look soft, the US jobs market looks poised to press forward. With the change in nonfarm payrolls report due to show headline jobs growth of 180K, there may not be much to look for in the coming labor market update. After all, the Atlanta Fed jobs calculator dictates that the US economy only needs 108K jobs per month to maintain the unemployment rate at 3.6% over the next 12-months. Given the backdrop of rates markets aggressively pulling forward Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, the upcoming May US jobs report poses asymmetric risk for the US Dollar: a bad report could hit the greenback in a significantly negative manner.

Read the full report: May US Jobs Report & USDJPY Price Forecast

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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2019-06-03 19:10:00

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May Canada Jobs Report & USDCAD Price Forecast

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 12:06 PM PDT

Hits: 8


Canada Jobs Talking Points:

  • The May Canada jobs report (detailing the employment change and unemployment rate) is due on Friday, June 7 at 12:30 GMT.
  • According to Bloomberg news, surveys see modest weakness for the Canadian labor market, set to lose -5.5K jobs after adding an all-time best 106.5K jobs in April.
  • Retail traders have started to trim their net-short USDCAD positioning, giving us a mixed view.

Join me on Mondays at 7:30 EDT/11:30 GMT for the FX Week Ahead webinar, where we discuss top event risk over the coming days and strategies for trading FX markets around the events listed below.

06/07 FRIDAY | 12:30 GMT | CAD Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (MAY)

Following the all-time best 106.5K jobs added in April, the May Canada jobs report looks to cool off a bit – not a surprise – by posting a small contraction of -5.5K jobs, according to a Bloomberg News survey. But the overarching strength of the Canada jobs market since the start of the year, compounded by gains in recent months, means that a small topline contraction shouldn't impact the unemployment rate, due on hold at 5.7%.

Overnight Index Swaps: Bank of Canada Rate Expectations (June 3, 2019) (Table 1)

The strength seen in the Canadian labor market in recent months has helped keep rate cut expectations at bay. Two months ago, overnight index swaps were pricing in a 21% chance of a 25-bps rate cut by the end of September; now, those odds are higher at 33%. If there is going to be a 25-bps rate cut by the BOC in the next several months, overnight index swaps are favoring October 2019.

Pairs to Watch: CADJPY, EURCAD, USDCAD

USDCAD Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (December 2018 to April 2019) (Chart 1)

usdcad price, usdcad technical analysis, usdcad chart, usdcad price forecast, usdcad price chart

Against a backdrop of rapidly deteriorating crude oil prices, our most recent outlook for USDCAD prices had traders on alert for a potential bullish breakout condition.Since the close on April 23, USDCAD prices had closed every session between 1.3377 and 1.3521. But after three consecutive days in which USDCAD prices failed to clear topside resistance at 1.3521 on a closing basis, we've seen a sharp reversal back within the range at the start of this week.

If a false breakout condition has indeed developed in recent days, then USDCAD prices may well fully reverse back to the other side of the consolidation, which in turn would see prices return back to support around 1.3377. On a longer-term basis, if by the end of June we see that USDCAD is below 1.3377, this would constitute a downside break of the range as well as a break of the uptrend from February, March, and April 2019 swing lows.

IG Client Sentiment Index: USDCAD (June 3, 2019) (Chart 2)

igcs, ig client sentiment index, igcs usdcad, usdcad price chart, usdcad price forecast, usdcad technical analysis

USDCAD: Retail trader data shows 26.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 2.72 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-short since May 22 when USDCAD traded near 1.34019; price has moved 0.6% higher since then. The number of traders net-long is 7.2% higher than yesterday and 8.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 10.6% lower than yesterday and 10.5% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDCAD prices may continue to rise. Positioning is less net-short than yesterday but more net-short from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDCAD trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

— Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher, email him at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him in the DailyFX Real Time News feed and Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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Movie Theater Releases: 14 New Movies Coming Out in June 2019 Movie Theater Releases: 14 New Movies Coming Out in June 2019

Posted: 03 Jun 2019 12:04 PM PDT

Hits: 5


There are plenty of great new movies coming out in June 2019 and we have compiled 14 of the biggest ones that are getting widespread theatrical release.

New Movies Coming Out in June 2019

As we head closer to the hottest part of the summer, we encourage you to leave your home and get some sunshine on your way to your local movie theater. While most of us probably have subscriptions to an online streaming site or app, there is still no substitute for an outing in which we get to see a movie in the big screen with a room full of strangers.

The month of June will be a dandy one for the film industry as there will be some great blockbuster flicks coming out, including the new X-Men title in the early part of the month. Art aficionados will get a taste of culture with the Pavarotti documentary titled after the opera singer's last name, coming out on the same day as the mutant academy flick.

Kevin Hart and Tiffany Haddish fans will get to hear their voices in the big screen as The Secret Life of Pets 2 is coming out, an animated film that is the sequel to a title with a great storyline and adorable pets. Here are the 14 biggest new movies coming out in June 2019:

Friday, June 7

Friday, June 14

Friday, June 21

Friday, June 28

Enjoy your summer!


Article printed from InvestorPlace Media, https://investorplace.com/2019/06/new-movies-coming-out-in-june-2019/.

©2019 InvestorPlace Media, LLC

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