Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- EURUSD, EURGBP Levels to Watch
- Gold Price Nears Sharp Breakout, Silver Price Needs a Driver
- GBPUSD Rate to Stage Larger Rebound in Upbeat UK Employment Report
- GBPUSD Rate to Stage Larger Rebound on Upbeat UK Employment Report
- Gold Prices Struggle Despite Dovish Fed, US Retail Sales Data Due
- Dow Hits Record High on Most Reserved Activity Since December 2017
- EURSEK Approaching 2-Year Rising Support Channel: Will it Break?
- S&P 500 Record High and Gold Builds Breakout Pressure Under Growth, Trade Wars
- AUDUSD Rate to Target May High on Less Dovish RBA Minutes
- CAD Sunk With Crude Oil, Citigroup Earnings Underpin Growth Frets
| EURUSD, EURGBP Levels to Watch Posted: 16 Jul 2019 02:46 AM PDT Hits: 7 EUR Analysis and Talking Points
See the DailyFXQ3 FX forecast to learn what will drive the currency throughout the quarter. EURUSD | 50DMA Support Holding, Range IntactThe pair has failed to push higher yet again, stalling in the upper 1.12 area. Consequently, EURUSD has made a retest of the 50DMA support (1.1243), which is holding thus far. However, with momentum indicators showing a slightly bearish bias, a closing break below raises scope for a move towards 1.12. That said, the trend is relatively weak, further signalling that the pair is likely to remain within its well defined 1.11-1.14 range. Of note, today will see the release of US retail sales, alongside a slew of Federal Reserve speakers. EURUSD PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Feb 2019 – Jul 2019) EURGBP | Bullish Momentum Persists, However, Trendline Resistance Remains KeyThe bullish momentum in EURGBP has shown little signs of easing with the cross making a break above the psychological 0.9000 handle. However, while DMI's continue to point for further upside, the cross will face a key test from the descending trendline stemming from the 2017 and 2019 peak situated at 0.9035-40, which in turn may spark a pullback back towards the mid-0.89s. EURGBP PRICE CHART: Daily Time Frame (Jun 2017 – Jul 2019)
— Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Gold Price Nears Sharp Breakout, Silver Price Needs a Driver Posted: 16 Jul 2019 01:34 AM PDT Hits: 9 Gold and Silver Prices, Analysis and Charts
Q3 2019 Gold Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities Gold Chart Looking Increasing BullishThe daily gold chart shows a 'bull pennant' formation taking shape, with the current consolidation period expected to be followed by further upside movement for the precious metal. Any upside break of this pennant should see gold take out its recent six-year high around $1,440/oz. and head towards $1,500/oz. On the weekly chart there is a gap on the April 8, 2013 candle between $1,495/oz. and $1,540/oz. which bullish traders may look to fill. How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips Gold Price Daily Chart (October 2018 – July 16, 2019)Silver Stuck and StrugglingThe recent break and close above the 200-day moving average has given silver a short–term boost but the metal remains capped by the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $15.54 and the recent multi-month high print just a couple of cents higher. Silver has also drifted into overbought territory and will need a fresh stimulus to keep the recent upside trend intact. The 200-day moving average at $15.13 should provide reasonably strong initial support. How to Trade Silver: Top Silver Trading Strategies. Silver Price Daily Chart (August 2018 – July 16, 2019)
Gold/Silver Spread Nears a 26-Year WideThe closely watched gold/silver spread is now nearing levels last seen back in 1993 as gold continues to dominate the space. The February 1993 high around 93.25 is the near-term target and if broken and closed above would leave the all-time high at 100.28 made in February 1991 the next target.
Trading the Gold-Silver Ratio: Strategies and Tips Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. What is your view on Gold and Silver – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| GBPUSD Rate to Stage Larger Rebound in Upbeat UK Employment Report Posted: 16 Jul 2019 12:18 AM PDT Hits: 18 British Pound Talking PointsGBPUSD struggles to retain the rebound from the monthly-low (1.2439) as the Conservative Party leadership contest renews the threat of a no-deal Brexit, but fresh data prints coming out of the UK may keep the exchange rate afloat should the developments instill an improved outlook for growth and inflation. GBPUSD Rate to Stage Larger Rebound in Upbeat UK Employment ReportThe upcoming change in leadership may produce headwinds for the British Pound as front-runner Boris Johnson stands ready to depart from the European Union (EU) without a trade deal, and the challenges facing the UK economy may force the Bank of England (BoE) to alter the forward guidance for monetary policy as the central bank warns "growth in the second quarter will be considerably weaker." It seems as though the BoE is preparing to abandon the rate hiking cycle as "a global trade war and a No Deal Brexit remain growing possibilities," and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may continue to strike a cautious tone at the next meeting on August 1 as the central bank updates its quarterly inflation report (QIR). However, fresh data prints coming out of the UK may instill an improved outlook for the region as the economy is anticipated to add 45K jobs during the three months through May, while Average Weekly Earnings excluding Bonus are anticipated to increase to 3.5% from 3.4% during the same period. The ongoing improvement in the labor market should keep the BoE on the sidelines as officials insist that "an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target at a conventional horizon." In turn, it remains to be seen if Governor Mark Carney and Co. will switch gears in 2019, but retail sentiment remains skewed ahead of the UK data prints despite the recent pickup in GBPUSD volatility.
The IG Client Sentiment Report shows79.9% of traders are still net-long GBPUSD compared to 83.2% last week, with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.97 to 1.In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 6 when GBPUSD traded near the 1.3100 handle even though price has moved 4.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.0% higher than yesterday and 2.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.6% lower than yesterday and 11.3% higher from last week. The small decline in net-long position may account for profit-taking behavior amid the recent rebound in GBPUSD, while net-short interest remains depressed ahead of the leadership contest, with the results expected to be announced on July 22. The ongoing tilt in retail interest offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment especially as GBP/USD snaps the bullish trend from late-2018, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to track the bearish formation from earlier this year. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups. GBP/USD Rate Daily Chart
For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q 2019 Forecast for the British Pound Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-07-16 06:30:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| GBPUSD Rate to Stage Larger Rebound on Upbeat UK Employment Report Posted: 15 Jul 2019 11:43 PM PDT Hits: 12 British Pound Talking PointsGBPUSD struggles to retain the rebound from the monthly-low (1.2439) as the Conservative Party leadership contest renews the threat of a no-deal Brexit, but fresh data prints coming out of the UK may keep the exchange rate afloat should the developments instill an improved outlook for growth and inflation. GBPUSD Rate to Stage Larger Rebound on Upbeat UK Employment ReportThe upcoming change in leadership may produce headwinds for the British Pound as front-runner Boris Johnson stands ready to depart from the European Union (EU) without a trade deal, and the challenges facing the UK economy may force the Bank of England (BoE) to alter the forward guidance for monetary policy as the central bank warns "growth in the second quarter will be considerably weaker." It seems as though the BoE is preparing to abandon the rate hiking cycle as "a global trade war and a No Deal Brexit remain growing possibilities," and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may continue to strike a cautious tone at the next meeting on August 1 as the central bank updates its quarterly inflation report (QIR). However, fresh data prints coming out of the UK may instill an improved outlook for the region as the economy is anticipated to add 45K jobs during the three months through May, while Average Weekly Earnings excluding Bonus are anticipated to increase to 3.5% from 3.4% during the same period. The ongoing improvement in the labor market should keep the BoE on the sidelines as officials insist that "an ongoing tightening of monetary policy over the forecast period, at a gradual pace and to a limited extent, would be appropriate to return inflation sustainably to the 2% target at a conventional horizon." In turn, it remains to be seen if Governor Mark Carney and Co. will switch gears in 2019, but retail sentiment remains skewed ahead of the UK data prints despite the recent pickup in GBPUSD volatility.
The IG Client Sentiment Report shows79.9% of traders are still net-long GBPUSD compared to 83.2% last week, with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.97 to 1.In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 6 when GBPUSD traded near the 1.3100 handle even though price has moved 4.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.0% higher than yesterday and 2.0% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.6% lower than yesterday and 11.3% higher from last week. The small decline in net-long position may account for profit-taking behavior amid the recent rebound in GBPUSD, while net-short interest remains depressed ahead of the leadership contest, with the results expected to be announced on July 22. The ongoing tilt in retail interest offers a contrarian view to crowd sentiment especially as GBP/USD snaps the bullish trend from late-2018, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) continues to track the bearish formation from earlier this year. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups. GBP/USD Rate Daily Chart
For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q 2019 Forecast for the British Pound Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-07-16 06:30:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Gold Prices Struggle Despite Dovish Fed, US Retail Sales Data Due Posted: 15 Jul 2019 10:25 PM PDT Hits: 9 GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices are struggling to gain traction despite what seems like a compelling catalyst: unmistakably dovish guidance form the Federal Reserve. That suggests the markets may have already priced in as much policy easing as can be reasonably expected before year-end. This makes for a curious backdrop as the spotlight turns to June's US retail sales report. A slowdown is expected to yield the weakest growth in four months at 0.2 percent. US data flow has tended to undershoot forecasts in recent months, warning that a still-weaker result may be in the cards. If the markets have exhausted their capacity to be cheered by hopes for easier Fed policy, a soft result may register as risk aversion. That might bring on a gold-supportive slide in bond yields, but this might be countered (if not overwhelmed) by haven-seeking capital flows buoying the US Dollar. CRUDE OIL PRICES EYE API DATA AFTER LARGEST DROP IN 2 WEEKSCrude oil prices posted the largest daily drop in two weeks. Selling pressure began to emerge late last week with the downgrade of tropical storm Barry to a "depression" and an ominous IEA report warning of oversupply despite OPEC-driven efforts at destocking. Yesterday, reports that US energy infrastructure shuttered ahead of Barry would soon return online reinforced the former narrative. Meanwhile, EIA drilling productivity data forecasting a pickup in new-well and overall output in August seemed to bolster the latter. The spotlight now turns to API inventory flow statistics. They will be weighed up against expectations calling for a 3.7-million-barrel outflow projected to be reported in official EIA figures Wednesday. A smaller draw or a surprise build might weigh on prices, while a larger one might furnish fuel for a bounce. Get the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter! GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices remain locked in a choppy range below a resistance region centered around the August 2013 high at 1433.85. Breaking upward looks like it may set the stage for a test above the $1500/oz figure. On the downside, any would-be reversal needs to overcome a dense block extending out through 1346.75. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices pulled back from resistance in the 60.04-84 area but left the outlines of a last week's would-be upside breakout intact for now. Trend line resistance-turned-support reinforces back-to-back downside barriers running down through 54.84, with a break below that probably needed to call a reversal.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Dow Hits Record High on Most Reserved Activity Since December 2017 Posted: 15 Jul 2019 09:13 PM PDT Hits: 5 Dow Talking Points:
See how retail traders are positioning in Dow, S&P 500, Nadaq and other key global indices via CFDsusing the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page. US Indices Hit Record Highs as Other Risk Assets DawdleThe drive higher seems unrelenting – at least it does for US equities. The major indices have opened the new week with yet another jolt higher with record highs for the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Yet, beyond the statistical close Monday slightly higher than the finish to this past Friday, there are a few caveats that seem to throw cold water on any intent for deep-set enthusiasm. The lack of support from other risk-leaning assets is one such fracture in an otherwise comfortable sense of progress. If emerging market or high yield assets seem to disparate to a benchmark like the Dow, then surely the unmistakable divergence in altitude and even bearing relative to other global indices should clue us into something amiss. Relative 12-Month Performance of Risk Assets (Daily) Quiet Alone Never Killed a Bull TrendYet, bringing the focus back to the outperforming US equities market, even the localized push to record highs has its issues. Notably, the fresh record summit to start the new week lacked for any fruitful progress. After an initial jump Monday, there was little to no follow through – the Dow was barely changed on the day. Furthermore, the measures of interest and conviction were seriously uneven. Volume behind the market was the most anemic seen in months while the day’s trading range (as a percentage of spot price) dropped to its lowest level since December 2017. Operating on similar precepts to the popular market aphorism ‘bull markets don’t die of old age’, quiet is not the portent of a speculative storm. The quiet climb throughout 2017 is recent example how restraint can still maintain a steadfast course for bulls. Chart of the Dow and 1-Day Range as Percentage of Spot (Daily)
The Context of Fed Dependency and a Lack of True SupportYet, complacency is not a particularly reliable source of strength for the financial backdrop. Markets will inevitably see volatility return as all conditions normalize. It is the motivation for that rebalancing and the state of conditions for the speculative backdrop when that normalizing occurs. In both accounts, the stability of the global markets is remarkably suspect. The catalysts on the bullish side of the coin are wholly unreliable – such as the hope of the Federal Reserve offering up more support via rate cuts. That is not to say that it is not likely to come, the issue is that the favorable impact of such a development is small while the risks are inordinately large. Against the bullish performance meanwhile, we are dealing with issues that run from fears of recession to trade wars. And, if we were forced to collectively evaluate our exposure to risky seas, the record exposure to risk built up over time and the divergence in performance of ‘risk’ assets would readily contribute to risk aversion. Chart of S&P 500 and Use of Leverage on NYSE at Broker Level (Monthly)
What to Watch For Moving Forward?There are cues to watch for on both the technical and fundamental sides. On the charts, seeing previous range highs of 2,960 for the S&P 500 and 26,975 for the Dow falter as a launch pad to a further extension would quickly sour a need to capitalize on steadily accelerating risk build up. In techs, however, my interests are more attuned to the break of support on related assets that are far less stretched that can so readily discount the detriment in a sliding market. Seeing carry trade drop through multi-year wedge support or the DAX drop back below the 200-day moving average would signal a uniform from in speculative ambition through sheer complacency. On the fundamental side of the market, we need a scheduled or unscheduled development that can reasonably change the perspective of the entire financial system. That isn’t to say that unique catalysts can’t act as a spark to a dangerous fuse – the US subprime housing market proved such an amplifier – but there is far greater potential of full fallout if our issues ran through trade wars or indisputable signs of impending recession. We take another look at the Dow and its close US relatives in today’s Quick Take video. If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-16 03:42:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| EURSEK Approaching 2-Year Rising Support Channel: Will it Break? Posted: 15 Jul 2019 08:37 PM PDT Hits: 9 NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! EURSEK TECHNICAL ANALYSISOn a daily chart, EURSEK continues to trade below May's descending resistance channel (red parallel channel). Traders will find themselves at an interesting point when the price ceiling and support at 10.4996 (yellow dotted line) converge. Sellers will likely wait for confirmation with a daily close below descending resistance and the price floor before committing more capital. EURSEK – Daily Chart Zooming out to a weekly chart, however, shows an entirely different picture. EURSEK has been on a steady incline since August 2017 (red parallel channel). The last time the pair came close to testing the lower level of support was in December of 2018. Despite being on an uptrend, the pair is once again approaching the critical support zone. A break below it with follow-through may cause sellers to double down. EURSEK – Weekly Chart
USDSEK TECHNICAL ANALYSISUSDSEK has once again broken through 18-month rising support after briefly popping its head up again in early July (red parallel channel). The pair is now looking to potentially test a familiar congestive range between 9.2533-9.3110 (red dotted lines). Traders with short positions may wait to add exposure until after USDSEK has broken below the lower lip of the congestive range with follow through. USDSEK – Daily Chart
Despite the temporary deviation from the broad uptrend, the underlying bias suggests a bullish outlook. Fundamentals supportive of a stronger US Dollar will likely be a tailwind behind the pair's likely continued ascendancy at least until year-end. A close above the upper lip of the support channel with follow through may prompt USDSEK traders to enter long positions if they are convinced the deviation is over. SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| S&P 500 Record High and Gold Builds Breakout Pressure Under Growth, Trade Wars Posted: 15 Jul 2019 07:57 PM PDT Hits: 8 Trade Wars Talking Points:
What do the DailyFX Analysts expect from the Dollar, Euro, Equities, Oil and more through the 3Q 2019? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Growth Realities Start to Weigh In on Fed Stimulus HopesLast week, the market was fully ready to give over to optimism. The focus on the Federal Reserve and other key central banks met the familiar promises to do whatever was necessary to keep economy chugging, translating it into a blind faith that supplement to tangible growth and reasonable rates of return would be successfully found to justify the ‘perfect’ pricing of the US indices. It hasn’t necessarily been the message from the world’s policy authorities that have changed but rather the expectations from its market participants. This air of conviction – at least for US indices – is proving tough to break even though the evidence to back up the optimism is ever found wanting. This conflict of expectations is perhaps the reasonable foundation for the performance of the Dow and S&P 500. The benchmarks both hit record highs to start the new trading week yet did so with no true follow through, the narrowest trading range since December 2017 (on the former) and tepid volume. Risk appetite without enthusiasm. Chart of S&P 500 and 1-Day Range as Percent of Spot (Daily) A restrained advance is nevertheless better than an active correction. That is the risk that lingers in the background as rest of world equities, emerging market assets, carry trade, sovereign yields and so many other key assets seem to diverge from the Dow’s enthusiasm. One theme actively leaning against optimism to start the week was the health of the global economy. Of course, we have seen a number of data points these past weeks weaken the theme of global growth – including the developing world’s manufacturing activity reports and developed world’s services sector – but it is easy to slip back into a state of willful ignorance when it conflict with speculative interests. That is harder to do with official data like China’s 2Q GDP update. The world’s second largest economy reported a 6.2 percent of annualized GDP for the worst reading in nearly three decades, back to comparable records. There is of course particular considerations to this data – such as China’s efforts to shift from export to domestic-driven growth, but it boils down to the same unmistakable economic slowdown that calls into questions such an extreme exposure to risk. Chart of S&P 500 and Leverage at NYSE Broker Level (Monthly)
Trade War Fallout More Recognizable as Trump Raises the Risk of AccidentsWhile traditional growth was more prominent on the calendar to start the new trading week, it would seem that trade wars were more deserving of speculators’ principal focus. US President Donald Trump was hosting another ‘Made in America’ event which proved an opportunity for sound bites on the point of trade. Asked about his relationship with Chinese counterpart President Xi, he said they were still friends though that had perhaps cooled. He would also deflate some of the confidence in the USMCA deal saying it was all politics and there was a ‘Plan B’ in case it didn’t go through. While the next steps in the US-China fracas is the most likely front to see development through the immediate future, their is far greater risk in my view with the trade war spilling over to other countries or other assets. There were reports Monday of European officials fretting the US would announce $7 billion in tariffs against the EU in the near future in retaliation for Airbus subsidies. That would fit the slowly building drum beat of pressure against Europe with over $24 billion in European goods that the United States has suggested it could tax in an effort to balance perceived inequities. The nominee for the new European Union Presidency Ursula von der Leyen has suggested she would take a stronger hand against the US in her rally cry for European cooperation. A trade war on this front – between the two largest total developed world economies – would very likely grind already flagging global growth to a halt. And if it breaks EURUSD from its chop, I almost welcome it… Chart of EURUSD and 60-Day Historical Range as Proportion of Spot Rate (Daily)
The most destabilizing risk to keep track of is the possibility that the Trump administration pursues currency devaluation – or what is perceived as currency devaluation. He has already accused key counterparts in Europe and China of artificially weakening their currencies for economic profit and has lobbied the Fed unsuccessfully to balance the equation. With last week’s unconfirmed reports that the President has set aides onto the practicality of devaluing the Greenback, the risk of global financial instability seems frighteningly close at hand. Chart of DXY Dollar Index Overlaid with FX Aggregate Volatility Index (Daily)
Consider the Potential of Dollar, Euro, Pound VolatilityIf you intend to pursue the as-yet detonated volatility in the market, set expectations accordingly for the FX majors. For the Dollar, the broad range of the past five months sets a rather straightforward picture. Despite a collapse in rate forecasts from three to four rate hikes to speculation of two to three cuts, the currency has not suffered the same hit. The US continues to drive global trade wars and neither sound benefit nor collective retaliation have resulted to contribute clear trend. If you are looking to any of the majors with high profile technical patterns, like AUDUSD, look to systemic or countercurrency influence to provide run. Chart of AUDUSD and 200-Day Moving Average (Daily)
For the world’s second largest currency, there isn’t nearly the prevalence of overlapping themes. The threat of an EU-Italy confrontation has settled and headlines linking Salvini to Russian interests aren’t proving significant enough to batter Italian markets. More traditional measures like the upcoming Eurozone investor sentiment survey and regional consumer inflation report promise little opportunity to push the focus to self-sustaining momentum. The EU Parliamentary vote on von der Leyen’s candidacy for the EU Presidency is very important to the course of European politics and trade relations, but the currency is unlikely to draw great impact. The same is true of the ECB’s policy intent which isn’t looking to definitive update through the foreseeable future. If looking for a more loaded cross, I would look to the likes of EURJPY for a risk spark. Chart of EURJPY with 200-day Moving Average and 20-Day ATR (Daily)
As for the British Pound, there are few majors that are more clearly bound to a single fundamental refrain. UK employment figures, regional inflation and even Bank of England update (Governor Carney remarks and bank liability survey) all fail to come up to the level of attention traders have set. The focus is on Brexit, and negotiations with the EU are on pause until the UK sorts its own political house. Reports Monday suggest the Conservative Party will have to have their votes for their next leader are due 16:00 GMT on the 22nd and the results will be reported 10:00 GMT the following day. A significant move before this next tangible step would take quite the update. Chart of EURGBP with 20-day Moving Average (Daily)
Gold Working Its Way Into a Breakout Awaiting the Next Significant HeadlineThere are few markets where a build up of pressure represents anything close to reasonable potential for significant market movement. That is not the situation for gold. The precious metal has spent three weeks working its way into a range in an attempt to curb the bull trend of hte past 11 months. Considering the commodity is one of the few safe havens that can reasonably provide harbor against financial instability that includes – or is caused by – the erosion in stability of sovereign-backed assets (currencies and government bonds), it is a positioned for benefit in either one of two contrasting probabilities: a natural drop in general risk trends or the devaluation prompted by governments to avert the market implosion. I’m watching 1,380 and 1,440 closely, but it is the latter that I think holds far more potential for follow through. We discuss all of this and more in today’s Trading Video. Chart of Gold and 20-day Moving Average (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-16 02:19:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| AUDUSD Rate to Target May High on Less Dovish RBA Minutes Posted: 15 Jul 2019 05:47 PM PDT Hits: 8 Australian Dollar Talking PointsAUDUSD appears to be making another run at the May-high (0.7061) as the exchange rate extends the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week, and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Minutes may fuel the recent rebound in the Australian Dollar should the central bank tame speculation for another rate cut in 2019. AUDUSD Rate to Target May High on Less Dovish RBA MinutesAUDUSD extends the rebound from the monthly-low (0.6911) even though China, Australia's largest trading partner, marks the slowest pace of growth since record keeping began in 1992, and the current environment may keep the exchange rate afloat as the Federal Reserve is widely expected to deliver an "insurance cut" at the next interest rate decision on July 31. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on track to insulate the US economy as "many participants indicated that the case for somewhat more accommodative policy had strengthened," and the US Dollar may face a more bearish fate over the coming days as Fed Fund futures show a 100% probability for at least a 25bp reduction in the benchmark interest rate. In contrast, the RBA may show a greater willingness to revert back to a wait-and-see approach after delivering two consecutive rate cuts, and the central bank may strike a more balanced tone ahead of next meeting on August 7 as "the central scenario for the Australian economy remains reasonable."
Keep in mind, the RBA is likely to reiterate its pledge to "adjust monetary policy if needed" as the US and China struggle to reach a trade deal, but it seems as though the central bank is in no rush to extend its rate easing cycle as "the central scenario remains for underlying inflation to be around 2 per cent in 2020 and a little higher after that." As a result, the RBA minutes from the July meeting may ultimately fuel the recent rebound in AUDUSD, with the exchange rate at risk of making another run at the May-high (0.7061) should Governor Philip Lowe and Co. soften the dovish forward guidance for monetary policy. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups. AUD/USD Rate Daily Chart
Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-07-16 00:30:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| CAD Sunk With Crude Oil, Citigroup Earnings Underpin Growth Frets Posted: 15 Jul 2019 03:54 PM PDT Hits: 18 Asia Pacific Market Open Talking Points
Not sure where crude oil prices are heading next? We recently released the third quarter Crude Oil fundamental and technical forecast! Canadian Dollar Sinks with Crude Oil Prices on US Bank Earnings ConcernsThe Canadian Dollar underperformed against its major counterparts as odds of a BoC rate cut by year-end climbed to about 45% on Monday from 33% at the end of last week. Indeed, Canadian front-end government bond yields traded to the downside over these past 24 hours. The cause of these bets seemed to stem from external factors as crude oil prices suffered their worst day in almost two weeks. Turning our attention towards the US, the S&P 500, while gapping to the upside, spent the rest of its day trading lower as it finished little changed from Friday's close. Examining the sectors, the index was led lower by financials. More specifically, banks declined over one percent despite Citigroup reporting an EPS beat of $1.83 versus 1.80 expected as second quarter revenue climbed 2% y/y. However, trading revenue dropped roughly 5% as CFO Mark Mason fretted about trade wars and the Fed stance weighing on client sentiment. At one point, Citigroup shares were down about 2.32% after market open. While the stock pared losses, those of JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, ahead of their earnings report on Tuesday, sunk and stayed lower. This might reflect the markets anticipating similar frets from them ahead. Moreover, on the chart below, US bond yields declined as markets remain concerned over the outlook from the Federal Reserve and global growth. This works to dampen demand prospects for sentiment-linked crude oil prices. Meanwhile, the commodity is a key revenue for Canada and thus can impact domestic monetary policy. All eyes for the Loonie are on this week's Canadian CPI report. Chart of the Day – Sentiment Dragged Down by Bank SharesChart Created in TradingView Tuesday's Asia Pacific Trading SessionS&P 500 futures are little changed ahead of Tuesday's Asia Pacific trading session. This places the focus on key fundamental event risk for currencies ahead. Most notably are the New Zealand CPI report and latest minutes from the RBA rate decision earlier this month. For the former, the RBNZ's data-dependent approach leaves NZD/USD vulnerable to volatility given a surprise deviation from expectations. FX Trading Resources— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
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