Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- EURUSD Nearing a Break as Price Coils Tighter Ahead of CB Meetings
- Gold Prices Stuck in Range Amid Market Slump as USD Holds Up
- Pulling Back or Rolling Over?
- GBP Regains Strength, Retail Sales Manage to Recover
- Gold Prices Remain Bullish, Silver Prices Continues to Outperform Gold
- Gold Prices Stuck in Range Amid Market Slump as USD Holds Up
- Gold Prices Stuck in Range Amid Market Slump as USD Holds Up
- GBPUSD Downtrend May Be Amplified by BoE Credit Assessment, Brexit
- S&P 500 Retreat May Accelerate on NFLX, IMF Gives Trump Dollar Ammo
- Oil Price Weakness to Persist Amid Signs of Slowing Consumption
| EURUSD Nearing a Break as Price Coils Tighter Ahead of CB Meetings Posted: 18 Jul 2019 04:02 AM PDT Hits: 9 EURUSD Price, Chart and Analysis:
Q3 2019 EUR Forecast and USD Top Trading Opportunities and Forecasts Keep up to date with all key economic data and event releases via the DailyFX Economic Calendar EURUSD price action is currently setting up for a triangular breakout ahead of two important central bank meetings this month. The triangle's vertex, defined by higher lows and lower highs, falls due around the time of the next ECB meeting on July 25 where the central bank is expected to outline a potential 10 basis point cut to the deposit rate to -0.5%. ECB President Mario Draghi may also prepare the market for another round of quantitative easing (bond buying), especially if economic data remains weak. In the US, the FOMC meeting on July 31 is fully expected to result in a 0.25% interest rate cut as Fed chair Jerome Powell looks to head off any economic slowdown. While interest rate cuts in the US have now been priced in over the last 2-3 months, the realization that the ECB has changed course and now needs to provide fresh monetary stimulus has weakened the Euro and may well weaken it further in the coming months. On the daily chart the triangular set-up over the last few is clear. The floor is currently a few pips under 1.1200, while the spot price is currently 1.1230 and falling. A break and close below 1.1182 would negate the short-term series of higher lows from June 18, while a bearish chart breakdown will need a close below the May 23 low at 1.1107. ECB to Continue QE as Fed Cements its Case for an Interest Rate Cut EURUSD Daily Price Chart (November 2018 – July 18, 2019)Retail traders are 66.6% (!!!) net-long EURUSD according to the latest IG Client Sentiment Data, a bullish contrarian indicator. However recent daily and weekly positional changes give us a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias. We run several Trader Sentiment Webinars every week explaining how to use IG client sentiment data and positioning when looking attrade set-ups. Access the DailyFX Webinar Calendar to get all the times and links for a wide range of webinars. Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. What is your view on EURUSD – bullish or bearish? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Gold Prices Stuck in Range Amid Market Slump as USD Holds Up Posted: 18 Jul 2019 03:23 AM PDT Hits: 8 GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices surged as risk appetite withered across global financial markets. That pushed bond yields down alongside stocks, boosting the appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives including the yellow metal. Sentiment-sensitive crude oil prices fell in line with the broader risk-off push. The defensive mood emerged at the opening of European trade as traders there took their turn to respond to the latest trade war threat from US President Donald Trump. He poured cold water on hopes for a US-China détente after talks resumed at a G20 meeting in June, saying more tariffs could be imposed. Soggy US economic data as well as a round of worrying earnings reports – notably from Netflix and freight operator CSX – extended the selloff into Wall Street trade. The catch-all MSCI World Stock Index suffered its largest daily drop in over a week. GOLD MAY MISS OUT ON MARKET ROUT AS US DOLLAR ATTRACTS HAVEN FLOWSLooking ahead, a relatively quiet economic data docket might keep sentiment trends in focus. Bellwether S&P 500 futures point convincingly lower, warning that de-risking may continue. That may bring deeper crude oil losses, but gold may struggle for upside follow-through if the US Dollar reclaims haven demand. Indeed, a most pullback in the benchmark currency – a hardly surprising outcome against the backdrop of lower yields and a dovish shift in the priced-in Fed policy outlook – nevertheless kept it within a hair of recent highs. That speaks volumes about the appeal of its unrivaled liquidity at times of market turmoil. Get the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter! GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices swung sharply higher but fell short of breaching resistance centered around the August 2013 high at 1433.85. A break higher sets the stage for a test above the $1500/oz figure. On the downside, sellers continue to face back-to-back support levels extending down through 1346.75. CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to decline after breaking support guiding the upswing from mid-June. A daily close below support at 54.84 exposes the 49.41-50.60 zone next. Alternatively, a rebound above resistance at 58.19 sets the stage for a retest of the 60.04-84 region.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Posted: 18 Jul 2019 02:47 AM PDT Hits: 5 DAX 30/CAC 40 Technical Highlights
For fundamental and technical forecasts, trade ideas, and educational guides, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page. DAX pulling back, healthy or a sign when compared to the U.S.?The DAX 30 weakening this month so far hasn't been too alarming, as it has unfolded with relatively weak momentum. But when compared to the world's largest market, the U.S., German stocks have been showing signs of relative weakness. It might not be anything to worry about, but a development worth monitoring moving forward should we continue to see a growing divergence between Europe and the U.S. Looking at the DAX chart alone, it still looks like a heathy pullback and has trend support to test not far below. A test of the trend-line off the December low could help further support the uptrend dating back to the late-year low. It could also offer would-be longs a solid risk/reward spot to enter. It's possible that with a little more time the developing channel off the July 4 high will present a bull-flag-like pattern to operate with as well. Holding the December trend-line and then breaking the top-side of the channel would make for an appealing set-up from where I sit – Hold support, then break resistance. DAX 30 Daily Chart (pulling back to t-line)CAC healthier looking, lots of resistance to contend with thoughThe CAC snuck above the April peak to test the May 2018 highs, but has so far struggled to maintain or climb above these critical swing highs. The recent price action for the French benchmark has been a bit more encouraging that is has for the DAX, with it moving mostly horizontal this month. If the DAX tests the December trend-line, the CAC may not do-so as it is showing more strength. The only caveat to the CAC outperforming is that it may get tripped up on an attempt to break above the May 2018 high at 5657. CAC 40 Daily Chart (holding up, but has lots or resistance ahead)
Want to learn more about trading the DAX? Check out 'How to Trade the DAX', and join me weekly for technical updates in the Indices and Commodities webinar. Forex & CFD Trader ResourcesWhether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. —Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| GBP Regains Strength, Retail Sales Manage to Recover Posted: 18 Jul 2019 02:11 AM PDT Hits: 8 GBP Talking Points:
GBP managed to regain some of yesterday's losses, gaining strength across the board at the start of the morning session. The strength in sterling comes after reports that a bill was passed in the House of Lords to prevent Boris Johnson from suspending parliament in the weeks before the October 31 deadline to prevent him from pushing through a no-deal Brexit, which has managed to regain a slight confidence in the economic outlook for the UK. GBPUSD jumped to 1.2471 at the open on Thursday morning before pushing higher as the better than expected retail sales figures were released. CHART: GBP HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD (18/07/19)Despite uncertainty about the future of the economy, retail industry sales in June managed to grow after falling 0.5% in the previous month. May's decline was partly blamed on the unusually cold weather for the month which added to concern on behalf of the industry due to the continued downtrend. But sales in June managed to grow 1% with the annual figure showing a growth of 3.8% in the twelve months to June, both figures beating expectations, providing a sign of relief for the retail industry. However, weakness in growth indicates that consumer spending is likely to have been softer in the second quarter of the year. A report published last month by the CBI showed that retail sales had fallen at the fastest pace since 2009 in the twelve months to June with the biggest decline seen in grocers and hardware stores. Online and mail order retailers were the only outliers to see a raise in growth, which is expected to continue in the coming months, albeit at a slower pace than the average. Retail sales balance survey showed that 16 per cent of retailers believe that sales have increased whilst 58 per cent said sales were down, giving a weighted balance of -42%, down from -27% in the previous month. Forecasts for the month of July show that 16 per cent of retailers expect sales volume to increase but 27 per cent expect a decrease, giving a balance of -11%, its lowest level since August 2016. Credit conditions survey carried out by the Bank of England to be released today will show the lending conditions in the UK for the latest quarter, where a rise in debt may be a potential risk but also a good sign for growth in the economy. If the figure shows weakness in the confidence of the economy, we can expect to see some sell off pressure in sterling as capital flows towards liquidity bearing assets like USD, weighing down on GBP's current rally. Recommended ReadingEurozone Debt Crisis: How to Trade Future Disasters – Martin Essex, MSTA, Analyst and Editor KEY TRADING RESOURCES: — Written by Daniela Sabin Hathorn, Junior Analyst To contact Daniela, email her at Daniela.Sabin@ig.com Follow Daniela on Twitter @HathornSabin http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Gold Prices Remain Bullish, Silver Prices Continues to Outperform Gold Posted: 18 Jul 2019 01:35 AM PDT Hits: 7 Gold & Silver Price Analysis and Talking Points:
See our quarterly gold forecast to learn what will drive prices throughout Q3! Gold Prices Bounce Off Resistance, Outlook Remains BullishGold prices saw a firm bid from the $1400 level in yesterday's session as risk appetite deteriorated, consequently boosting flight to quality flow into safe-haven assets. Although, on the technical front, the precious metal failed to break above its near-term trendline resistance, which in turn has seen gold prices pullback slightly. However, the global economic environment remains fragile and the earnings season is likely to confirm as much with companies downgrading their outlook amid the ongoing trade war between the US and China, which is showing little signs of being resolved anytime soon, thus the impact of the current tariffs will have to be factored in. As such, the outlook remains supportive for precious metals. Going forward, eyes will be on potential comments from Fed's Williams and Bostic. GOLD Technical Levels Resistance 1: $1430 (Trendline) Resistance 2: $1435-40 (Double-Top) Support 1: $1380 (July low) Support 2: $1373 (23.6% Fib) GOLD PRICE CHART: Daily Time-Frame (Jul 2018 -Jul 2019) What You Need to Know About the Gold Market Silver Price Outlook | ETF Buying Sparks Silver OutperformanceSilver prices have risen 5.3% throughout the week, which so far is its best weekly performance in 3yrs. This in turn, has seen silver break above $16, hitting highs of $16.11 and therefore has continued to outperform gold with the gold/silver ratio dropping to 88.75 from its 26yr peak. This appears to be largely based on the recent surge we had highlighted in ETF buying of silver, in which total holdings are the highest since August 2017, when silver prices were at $16.90. That said, we continue to see room for further outperformance in silver over gold.
Silver Price Chart: Daily Timeframe (Sep 2018 – Jul 2019)
GOLD TRADING RESOURCES: — Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Gold Prices Stuck in Range Amid Market Slump as USD Holds Up Posted: 18 Jul 2019 12:59 AM PDT Hits: 0 GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices surged as risk appetite withered across global financial markets. That pushed bond yields down alongside stocks, boosting the appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives including the yellow metal. Sentiment-sensitive crude oil prices fell in line with the broader risk-off push. The defensive mood emerged at the opening of European trade as traders there took their turn to respond to the latest trade war threat from US President Donald Trump. He poured cold water on hopes for a US-China détente after talks resumed at a G20 meeting in June, saying more tariffs could be imposed. Soggy US economic data as well as a round of worrying earnings reports – notably from Netflix and freight operator CSX – extended the selloff into Wall Street trade. The catch-all MSCI World Stock Index suffered its largest daily drop in over a week. GOLD MAY MISS OUT ON MARKET ROUT AS US DOLLAR ATTRACTS HAVEN FLOWSLooking ahead, a relatively quiet economic data docket might keep sentiment trends in focus. Bellwether S&P 500 futures point convincingly lower, warning that de-risking may continue. That may bring deeper crude oil losses, but gold may struggle for upside follow-through if the US Dollar reclaims haven demand. Indeed, a most pullback in the benchmark currency – a hardly surprising outcome against the backdrop of lower yields and a dovish shift in the priced-in Fed policy outlook – nevertheless kept it within a hair of recent highs. That speaks volumes about the appeal of its unrivaled liquidity at times of market turmoil. Get the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter! GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices swung sharply higher but fell short of breaching resistance centered around the August 2013 high at 1433.85. A break higher sets the stage for a test above the $1500/oz figure. On the downside, sellers continue to face back-to-back support levels extending down through 1346.75.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to decline after breaking support guiding the upswing from mid-June. A daily close below support at 54.84 exposes the 49.41-50.60 zone next. Alternatively, a rebound above resistance at 58.19 sets the stage for a retest of the 60.04-84 region.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Gold Prices Stuck in Range Amid Market Slump as USD Holds Up Posted: 18 Jul 2019 12:17 AM PDT Hits: 0 GOLD & CRUDE OIL TALKING POINTS:
Gold prices surged as risk appetite withered across global financial markets. That pushed bond yields down alongside stocks, boosting the appeal of non-interest-bearing alternatives including the yellow metal. Sentiment-sensitive crude oil prices fell in line with the broader risk-off push. The defensive mood emerged at the opening of European trade as traders there took their turn to respond to the latest trade war threat from US President Donald Trump. He poured cold water on hopes for a US-China détente after talks resumed at a G20 meeting in June, saying more tariffs could be imposed. Soggy US economic data as well as a round of worrying earnings reports – notably from Netflix and freight operator CSX – extended the selloff into Wall Street trade. The catch-all MSCI World Stock Index suffered its largest daily drop in over a week. GOLD MAY MISS OUT ON MARKET ROUT AS US DOLLAR ATTRACTS HAVEN FLOWSLooking ahead, a relatively quiet economic data docket might keep sentiment trends in focus. Bellwether S&P 500 futures point convincingly lower, warning that de-risking may continue. That may bring deeper crude oil losses, but gold may struggle for upside follow-through if the US Dollar reclaims haven demand. Indeed, a most pullback in the benchmark currency – a hardly surprising outcome against the backdrop of lower yields and a dovish shift in the priced-in Fed policy outlook – nevertheless kept it within a hair of recent highs. That speaks volumes about the appeal of its unrivaled liquidity at times of market turmoil. Get the latest gold and crude oil forecasts to see what will drive prices in the third quarter! GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSISGold prices swung sharply higher but fell short of breaching resistance centered around the August 2013 high at 1433.85. A break higher sets the stage for a test above the $1500/oz figure. On the downside, sellers continue to face back-to-back support levels extending down through 1346.75.
CRUDE OIL TECHNICAL ANALYSISCrude oil prices continue to decline after breaking support guiding the upswing from mid-June. A daily close below support at 54.84 exposes the 49.41-50.60 zone next. Alternatively, a rebound above resistance at 58.19 sets the stage for a retest of the 60.04-84 region.
COMMODITY TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter
Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| GBPUSD Downtrend May Be Amplified by BoE Credit Assessment, Brexit Posted: 17 Jul 2019 11:37 PM PDT Hits: 32 GBPUSD, BOE, BREXIT– TALKING POINTS
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! APAC RECAPEarly into Thursday's Asia Pacific trading hours markets were hit by the publication of Australian employment data which propelled the Australian Dollar and yet local front-end government bond yields aimed lower, indicating that markets were not convinced it would meaningfully cool RBA rate cut bets. It is unlikely that the marginally-impressive data will substantially put a dent into dovish monetary policy expectations. The recent publication of the meeting minutes suggests lower rates are ahead. BOE CREDIT/LIABILITIES RISK ASSESSMENT, BREXIT RISKS PRESSURING GBPGBPUSD traders may find themselves hot under the collar if the Bank of England's (BoE) assessment of liabilities and credit conditions amplifies additional uncertainty about the UK's financial stability. If the survey finds debt risks are tilted to the downside, it could dampen sentiment and make traders shift from chasing returns to seeking liquidity. In this regard, the US Dollar reigns supreme and could experience capital inflow. Furthermore, regulators, politicians and central banks have become more vocal about monitoring the risks associated with growing debt. The prospect of a credit bubble burst has now become an alarmingly-comfortable threat that may destabilize financial markets after 10 years of ultra-low rates. A recent report found that commercial property mortgages are once again being collateralized into income-generating assets. The headline risk for GBP traders continues to be the UK-EU divorce, and Sterling's recent decline against most of its major counterparts has moved in tandem with growing fears of a no-deal Brexit. This week UK Lawmaker Grieve sent shivers up the spine of Sterling traders when he stated that blocking a hard-Brexit may be more difficult than anticipated. GBPUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSISOn July 16, GBPUSD dropped just short of one percent and is slowly recovering after reentering a critical support channel (red parallel channel). The outlook for upward movement does not look promising with the next possible ceiling at 1.2604, over 1.35 percent higher than where it is now. A breach below the downward-sloping support zone with follow-through may result in a rapid selloff as a result of broken hope for the upside. CHART OF THE DAY: GBPUSD HOVERS AT CRITICAL SUPPORT CHANNEL GBPUSD TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| S&P 500 Retreat May Accelerate on NFLX, IMF Gives Trump Dollar Ammo Posted: 17 Jul 2019 07:10 PM PDT Hits: 15 S&P 500 Talking Points:
What do the DailyFX Analysts expect from the Dollar, Euro, Equities, Oil and more through the 3Q 2019? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. CSX Stirs Growth Concerns but NFLX May Hit Markets Where It Really HurtsUS earnings season continues to offer unintended signposts for global financial market pressure points. While Wednesday’s run didn’t have the same density of high-level updates as the day before, what was present was significant – and may power the market through the upcoming session. With few banks of heft reporting, the focus shifted away from speculation of Fed forecasts and its impact to a more traditional growth assessment. Railroad shipping firm CSX issued its numbers the day before, but its fallout wasn’t registered until Wednesday’s trade. The impact was ultimately severe with a gap lower and tense follow though. The real hit came with the firm’s drop in guidance due to what the CEO described as a “puzzling” economy. Chart of CSX Stock Price and Opening Gaps (Daily) Alone, this company’s performance and warning are not enough to derail the outlook for the US or global economies; but it is yet another unflattering milestone that builds upon a very troubled road that has started to take traction in many investors’ fears. If there is an earnings update that has a more systemic impact on confidence this week, it would be Netflix. The streaming video company is one of the vaunted FAANG members – the large market cap tech companies that seemed to collectively control the market’s confidence. If we follow the trail to the core of speculative sentiment, we find the US equities market has soundly outperformed most other global assets that carry the ‘risk on’ banner, which then has the tech sector within the next sphere of influence and those FAANG members at the symbolic yoke. Following that line of emphasis through the market’s decade-long bull run, it is perhaps easier to understand the risk of toppling dominoes that could eventually end in a full deleveraging of excess risk. After hours, Netflix shares tumbled 12 percent on what was generally moderate numbers (in GAAP terms). It will be important to watch the US open for any signs of contagion. Chart of Netflix, FAANG Index and Nasdaq 100 Index (Daily)
The IMF Weighs In On Trade Wars, Finds It is All PainThere were a few other measures that would speak to growth this past session with either a dubious or overtly unflattering perspective. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book – the report that gave an economic assessment from which officials can determine their views on monetary policy – offered a surprisingly optimistic outlook for US GDP. I say it is ‘surprising’ because they seem to have already signaled an intent to cut, certainly the market read that with a implied rate forecast through Fed Fund futures showing a 100 percent probability of a 25 bp reduction in two weeks. Yet, easing monetary policy when it is still exceptionally accommodative (globally and via balance sheet) would insinuate conditions are poor. In the the meantime, the Fed’s report would also make clear its concern about the state of the trade wars and the broad risk it represented to the future. But again, they are optimistic on growth… US Treasury 10-Year to 3-Month Yield Spread (Daily)
A more tangible assessment of the troubles that lie ahead through both growth and strained trade relations was the IMF’s External Sector Report. Insight that deserves frequent reiteration was the excess leverage that the financial system sits on. They would report net creditor/debtor positions at a historical 20 percent of GDP. We are facing extreme leverage in markets, central bank exposure, government and consumer debt. Much can go run under those conditions. Meanwhile, the semi-regular trade and currency report was fairly straightforward on its warnings to the state of trade. The group has said trade wars could lead to a $455 billion loss in GDP next year through a general depression of global trade and that the measures implemented thus far have done little to rebalance external imbalances. By their estimation, China’s surplus was more in-line with its fundamentals – an assessment that will not sit well with the Trump Administration that has argued vehemently to the contrary. Chart of S&P 500 and NYSE Broker Level Leverage (Montly)
Another Assessment from the IMF May Encourage Trump to Double Down on Weakening the DollarWhere President Trump may not appreciate their view that trade inequity was moving more towards balance, he would certainly appreciate their evaluation that the US Dollar was potentially 6 to 12 percent overvalued. That would be a significant adjustment for a currency if it were to rebalance – especially the world’s most liquid. Trump has repeatedly claimed that the local currency was misaligned to fundamental value with frequent pressure applied on the Fed to correct the balance through monetary policy means and reportedly tasking aides with investing means to devalue within his control when that didn’t work. This third party talking point may embolden his efforts. It is worth noting that the IMF also found that the Euro and Yuan – the two countries the President accused explicitly of artificial manipulation – were fairly valued, but the Administration would not likely get tangled up in that detail. Chart of DXY Dollar Index and 6 to 12 Percent Discount (Weekly)
From more traditional (natural) drivers for the benchmark currency, there is not much in the way of systemically-important scheduled event risk. This past sessions housing and building permits offered a painful retreat, but that is only another pebble in the growth concern bucket. The next 24 hours is unlikely to offer anything to make a volatility meal out of. The most prominent offering on tap will be Friday’s University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, but even that will struggle for impact. Monetary policy anticipation has too often struggled to direct the market’s course lately to reasonably expect it to suddenly retake control when no major event is on tap. There is also the potential for Greenback to draw capital that is fleeing other troubled currencies, but those winds are not presently overwhelming. Chart of DXY Dollar Index and Expected Rate Change Beween 'Now' and End of July (Daily)
Sterling Tumble Takes a Pause, Euro and Loonie Refuse Inflation Data, Watch GoldLooking outside the systemic currents, we find more of the key markets are either pausing, powering down or building pressure. For the Sterling’s incredible multi-month slide, the currency managed to find a speculative ledge this past session. Perhaps Conservative Party leader Boris Johnson’s remarks that a Brexit deal by October 31st was taken a signal that he would make a greater effort to avoid a ‘no deal’ outcome, but measures of market sentiment around the divorce (like the Bloomberg Brexit Barometer) show no foothold for genuine speculative anticipation for an easier path forward. Ahead, we have UK retail sales that could leverage the same surprise level of activity as the US report, but I will withhold anticipation. The Bank of England’s (BOE) bank liability and credit conditions report hits closer to home, but even financial stability in the face of Brexit is not proving particularly market moving. Chart of GBPUSD with 20-Day Moving Average (Daily)
IF there was a theme in data this past session, it would have been inflation. The wide run of UK price pressures was a mixed bag with a notable easing upstream (retail, producer and house prices). That isn’t enough to change the game for the BOE and challenge Brexit however. Euro-area CPI was little change from previous and met expectations. There are few pressing themes on the second most liquid currency that could reasonably spur the Euro to action beyond its role as an available counterpart beyond meaningful shifts in European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectation. I afforded my greatest expectations for economic impact through data to the Canadian inflation statistics given the Bank of Canada (BOC) remains one of the most resistant policy authorities to a seemingly universal dovish outlook. Though that may be the case, the CPI figures did not generate significant surprise nor turn rates off course. Chart of EURCAD with 200-Day Moving Average (Daily)
If there is one market that has both high breakout potential and can also reasonably be expected to establish trend with a little fundamental coaxing, it is gold. The precious metal has spent the past weeks building up pressure in a contracting wedge following months of climb. A breakout is inevitable – and may already be setting into gear with this past session’s close above 1,425. Yet, it is the potential for run after the technical boundary is breached that makes this market particularly interesting. While offering its own appeal, it is the signal capacity of this commodity as a safe haven specifically oriented towards financial instability amid the devaluation of sovereign assets that most interests me. It is worth noting this is one of the few assets that holds a positive correlation to its personal implied volatility measure. We discuss all of this and more in today’s Trading Video. Chart of Gold with CBOE's Gold Volatility Index (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-18 01:35:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Oil Price Weakness to Persist Amid Signs of Slowing Consumption Posted: 17 Jul 2019 05:55 PM PDT Hits: 9 Oil Price Talking PointsThe price of crude extends the decline from the monthly-high ($60.94) even though US crude inventories contract for the fifth consecutive week, with oil prices at risk of exhibiting a more bearish behavior over the coming days as a 'death-cross' formation takes shape in July. Oil Price Weakness to Persist Amid Signs of Slowing ConsumptionCrude prices may continue to give back the advance from the June-low ($50.60) as updates from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) instill a mixed outlook for the world's largest consumer of oil, and the weakening outlook for the global growth may continue to drag on energy prices amid the ongoing shift in trade policy. US crude inventories narrowed 3116K in the week ending July 12, but the details of the report showed gasoline inventories unexpectedly climbing 3565K during the same period, with stockpiles of distillate fuel climbing 5685K after expanding 3729K the week prior. Signs of lower consumption may put pressure on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to step up their efforts as the mere extension of the 'Declaration of Cooperation' fails to prop up the price of crude, and the group may have little choice but to further reduce crude outputs over the coming months especially as the US and China struggle to reach a deal.
It remains to be seen if OPEC and its allies will adjust production ahead of the next meeting on December 5 as the most recent Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) states that "in 2019, the global oil demand growth forecast remains at 1.14 mb/d, with expectations for global oil demand to reach 99.87 mb/d." The update suggests OPEC and its allies are in no rush to respond to the weakening outlook for global growth, and current market conditions may keep crude under pressure, with the price of oil still at risk of facing a bear market as a 'death-cross' formation takes shape. Crude Oil Daily Chart
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