Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- Crude Oil Prices May Fall Further as Global Growth Outlook Dims
- EUR/USD Holding Multi-year Trend Support
- Expect More Dollar and Dow Volatility on Fed Speculation, Trade Wars, US GDP
- EURUSD At the Crossroads of Most Critical Volatility Lines
- Dow Eases Back from Record, Dollar Struggles to Light Fuse, Gold Holds Its Break
- Australian Dollar Gains Should Hold As Markets Still Think Fed Will Cut
- Trading Bias to Remain Higher
- US Dollar Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD
- Gold Price Rally Hits Forecast Target
- Euro Price at Risk as Implied Volatility Spikes Ahead of ECB
| Crude Oil Prices May Fall Further as Global Growth Outlook Dims Posted: 20 Jul 2019 02:41 AM PDT Hits: 12 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| EUR/USD Holding Multi-year Trend Support Posted: 19 Jul 2019 09:43 PM PDT Hits: 10 Euro Price Chart: EUR/USD Holding Multi-year Trend SupportEuro is down more than 0.4% this week with price now testing multi-year slope support late in the month. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latestWeekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold price setup and more. New to Forex Trading? Get started with this Free Beginners Guide Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD WeeklyNotes:In my last EUR/USD Price Outlook we highlighted that the Euro rally was, "testing initial resistance targets here around 1.14 and while the broader focus remains higher, the advance is vulnerable near-term heading into the yearly open- Watch the weekly / monthly close. Price closed that week at 1.1368 before turning lower with EUR/USD testing a key slope support for the past three weeks. Note that Euro has been unable to mark a weekly close below the lower parallel of the broad ascending pitchfork formation we've been tracking off the 2015 / 2017 lows – the focus is on a reaction off this threshold with the bears at risk while above the 61.8% retracement at 1.1186. A break / weekly close below would be needed to keep the short-bias viable targeting 1.1107 and former channel resistance, currently around ~1.1050. Resistance steady at 1.1393 with a breach above the yearly open at 1.1445 needed to suggest a larger advance is underway targeting 1.16. For a complete breakdown of Michael's trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy Bottom line:Euro has been testing this slope support since mid-April and leaves the immediate short-bias vulnerable. From a trading standpoint, a good place to reduce short-exposure / lower protective stops – watch the weekly closes for guidance. Look for downside exhaustion ahead of 1.1186 IF prices are going to hold this slope with a breach above 1.1445 needed to shift the broader focus higher. I'll publish an updated Euro Price Outlook once we get further clarity in near-term EUR/USD price action. Even the most seasoned traders need a reminder every now and then-Avoid these Mistakes in your trading Euro Trader Sentiment (EUR/USD)
See how shifts in Euro retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment! — Key Eurozone / US Data Releases
Economic Calendar – latest economic developments and upcoming event risk. Learn more about how we Trade the News in our Free Guide! Previous Weekly Technical Charts Learn how to Trade with Confidence in our Free Trading Guide — Written by Michael Boutros, Technical Currency Strategist with DailyFX Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Expect More Dollar and Dow Volatility on Fed Speculation, Trade Wars, US GDP Posted: 19 Jul 2019 08:25 PM PDT Hits: 7 Dollar Talking Points:
What do the DailyFX Analysts expect from the Dollar, Euro, Equities, Oil and more through the 3Q 2019? Download forecasts for these assets and more with technical and fundamental insight from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. Monetary Policy May Take Top Spot in Market VolatilityAs we look ahead to the upcoming trading week, there is considerable fuel for a range of influential fundamental themes. If we were going by the calendar rather than accounting for headlines, it would look like growth and recession were the top theme for market-moving potential. However, recent developments will definitely change that speculative mix. This past week ended with a remarkable amount of volatility in Fed rate speculation – the largest central bank with the most traditional policy ammunition to enact serious change. In the second half of the past week, market forecasts of Fed intent took a dramatic swing when New York Fed President John Williams issued comments that were interpreted by a hyper-vigilant market as indication that there may be support in the central bank’s ran for a 50 basis point rate cut come July 31st. Where Fed Fund futures had projected a probability for such a hefty drop at only approximately 20 percent at the start of the week, the chances of a steep cut surged to approximately 70 percent Thursday. The response was so dramatic that a spokesperson looked to clarify that the permanent voter was not advocating for an accelerating easy path. To further throw cold water on dovish speculation, perma-dove James Bullard said he was only advocating for a single 25 bp cut and that this move would not usher in an ‘easing cycle’. Move dovish of all though was Rosengren’s suggestion that he didn’t support a rate hike next this month. Federal Reserve Rate Expectations from Overnight Swaps (Daily) While the Fed’s efforts carry the most weight as the largest player with the most policy room to maneuver, an eye should be kept on other policy efforts. China’s PBOC said at the end of this past week that it would take more efforts to offset financial risks – an effort at putting out fires. Most remarkably moving forward though will be the European Central Bank rate decision. The group is not expected to make any material change – and is unlikely to until the leadership swap from Draghi to Lagarde takes place at the end of October – but forward guidance may be issued nonetheless. If a tip of more government bond purchases is offered, the market will respond in kind. And, while the undertow for the Euro may be strong, make sure to consider the systemic influence in the connection of monetary policy to market stability – particularly what happens if the market starts to worry that central banks have no further recourse to stabilize the financial system. Chart of Major Central Bank Market Outlook (Daily)
Growth Concerns Will Find Official (GDP) and Unofficial (Earnings) UpdateAnother theme of heavy influence over the coming week – and which has a far more delineated release scheduled – is the outlook for economic growth. A global review of economic health is due on Wednesday when the July PMIs are due for release from Australia, Japan, Euro-area and US economies. This is as timely and comprehensive as the statistics come, and the potential is there for significant market response. A broad surprise signaling expansion or significant slowing of growth can translate into a systemic risk view. Short of that, we could also see a spark of momentum for individual currencies depending on what is printed. A more targeted affair – and one that will act to curb volatility for much of the week – is the official US government 2Q GDP release. With a Friday release, the market will spend most of the week fretting over the eventual release. That can act to curb a speculative run in US capital markets or the Dollar until that data officially crosses the wires. As it stands, the Greenback does not seem too committed to a particular run for either the bulls or the bears. Chart of DXY Dollar Index (Daily)
A different take on growth into this new week is the state of the business cycle. US earnings season will continue into the new week with a new balance of interest. While there are some notable figures from financial firms, insight into the Fed’s influence on bank revenues is not the principal interest. A far more significant theme in the accounting data ahead can come through the sheer speculative balance to be found in key tech firms. Intel will carry stand out weight similar to Microsoft this past week. That said, I will pay greater attention to Facebook, Amazon and Google (the F, A and G in FAANG) as these tickers have contributed far more to speculative appetite these past year. Further, Caterpillar will give a traditional growth update only the blue-chips are capable of while trade wars will pick through reports such as those from Boeing and Harley Davidson. Trade Wars and Geopolitical Risks Can Take Over Trend With Little WarningSpeaking of trade wars, we cannot write off the leveraged potential of the theme simply because there are not convenient milestones to watch for moving forward. The standoff between the US and China continues with Huawei reportedly a sticking point and accusations of currency manipulation a further tripping point. The greater concern I have is the spread of trade issues from the isolated US-China spat to encompass more developed world benchmarks. Europe in particular seems at risk with the Boeing-Airbus tension rising and France pursuing a 3 percent digital tax on large tech companies (most of which are US-based). If this theme flares up – particularly for the worst – it can readily hold speculative implications. Chart of Nasdaq 100 (Daily)
Another theme of low anticipation but extreme potential impact is the state of global geopolitics. The situation between the West and Iran has only intensified this past week. Following months of economic sanctions, we have seen the situation move into the UK seizing an Iran oil tanker followed by Iran shooting down a US drone. Late this past week, the situation devolved further when it was reported that the US shot down an Iranian drone and Iran had seized a second British operated ship. This is tit-for-tat retaliation thus far and the market seems to be slow to respond whether you follow risk trends or crude oil. However, this situation could easily escalate to something far more dangerous with little or no notice. It is best to be mindful of headlines. Chart of US Crude Oil Price and 5-Day Rate of Change (Daily)
Top Benchmarks to Watch: EURUSD, Gold, Oil and DowIf you are looking at the key event risk and generate state of volatility for next week, there are a few benchmarks to watch for in particular. The Dollar is one such high-profile risk. With anticipation for the Fed’s decision the following week and the US 2Q GDP on Friday, the Greenback will be heavily weight-and-see which should be interesting for EURUSD within range and AUDUSD attempting an H&S reversal. With the former pair, add the Euro’s charge through PMIs and ECB and this should be a loaded week. Chart of EURUSD and 20-Day ATR (Daily)
With political risks between Iran and the US/UK festering, the supply side of crude oil supply will post a near-constant threat to market volatility. The thing is: energy prices are far more sensitive to demand side factors than the supply issues that we are seeing flare up lately. If growth slows and risk slides, oil may drop even in the face of more direct restrictions in supply. In contrast to the clear growth reading in crude, gold will fix to financial stability specifically. The precious metal reflects expectations of financial stability more than inflation or even risk appetite. If talk of stimulus continues to build, gold will charge higher whether or not the efforts by central banks calms capital markets. Chart of Gold Price (Daily)
And, as always, the best risk asset to monitor ahead is a benchmark for US equities. This asset class is far from an ideal measure of each ebb and flow in sentiment, but it is the skew in the measure that makes it particularly interesting. With a clear preference for favorable developments in risk appetite, the Dow should be monitored closely for any notably slips in its climb. If the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq were to drop back below their respective, previous resistance levels, I would be watching closely for systemic momentum for sentiment. Chart of Dow (Daily)
If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-20 03:12:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| EURUSD At the Crossroads of Most Critical Volatility Lines Posted: 19 Jul 2019 07:02 PM PDT Hits: 11 EURUSD Talking Points:
See how retail traders are positioning in EURUSD and other liquid FX crossesusing the DailyFX speculative positioning data on the sentiment page. EURUSD Is the Most Liquid FX Cross And One of the Most Resistant to Breakout/TrendMost traders seek out the markets and pairs with the most movement. From volatility, the average market participant believes they can generate a significant swing for which direction and timing will simply come through their speculative prowess. Volatility and momentum are ultimately very useful; but when neither is the standard for the broader financial system, their presence is more often a source of risk than the genesis of reliable opportunities. As has been the case since soon after the turn of the year, the general course for the financial system has been congestion with a lack of clear trend intent and erratic – but sometimes sharp – volatility. It follows that when we look for opportunities, they would better fit this mold of the market. If we are looking for volatility within range, there are few more appropriate currency pairs than EURUSD. The world’s most liquid currency pair has kept frustratingly consistent to its range. The 20-day (1-month) average true range as a measure of volatility is near the lowest since Summer 2014 – the definition of quiet market. Further, the historical range of the pair (as a percentage of range) over the past 60 days holds near the most restrictive since summer 2014 as well while 60 weeks has dropped to a record low. That is not to say that these measure have to hold, but if this remains the underlying pace, there are few more appropriate. Chart of EURUSD and Historical 60-Week Range as Percentage of Spot (Weekly) If we are to break from these constraints or see significant swings within them, it is important to find activity to charge the market. There are a few high-profile events on the docket for the week ahead that can contribute to a theme like growth (or more aptly recession fears), but there is also serious potential for alternative systemic risks like monetary policy and trade wars. With a few benchmark levels to track on EURUSD, we may find some trade potential develop. Chart of EURUSD (Daily)
An ECB Rate Decision and Heavy Fed SpeculationIn terms of highest risk of significant movement for the EURUSD in the week ahead, the top fundamental theme on my radar is monetary policy. This past week showed how market moving the issue can be with Federal Reserve members generating enormous amounts of volatility by little more than remarks. There are few high-profile statements schedule, but attention is such that unexpected remarks can generate even more response as the market anticipates the Fed’s rate decision on July 31st. The tangible monetary policy event in the coming week is the European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision. The world’s second biggest central bank is due to weigh on monetary policy Thursday. While it is not expected to change its policy mix at this particular meeting, speculation has picked up dramatically that a dovish turn is coming. That could encourage some preemptive signaling beforehand. Watch for reference to exploring options on excess reserves and a return to purchasing government bonds. Monetary Policy Perception Chart
Growth Measures Will Offer a More Data Driven Fundamental SwellIf we are simply following the lines of known event risk, the most easily followed theme for EURUSD this coming week will be growth. A global mix of July PMIs – a timely proxy for official GDP figures – is due on Wednesday. If there are meaningful changes in course or intensity, from either the European or US data, the impact can be significant in volatility terms for the pair. However, with an expected official 2Q US GDP reading due Friday, it would take a clear and severe reading from one or both sides to override the anticipation that will naturally draw attention to the end-of-week update.
Trade Wars Are a Looming Risk With Severe ConsequencesPerhaps the least reliable event risk ahead as it doesn’t have any definable milestones on the calendar is the threat of trade wars expanding to the EURUSD. For the US, the pressure is relentless from the White House but the consideration is more retaliation. The risk to the Euro is whether President Trump turns his efforts towards the region. There have already been lists of products made that have been threatened for tariff – over $25 billion in European goods recently – and there have been acute flare ups. The issue between Boeing and Airbus as well as France’s move towards digital taxes on US tech firms are just a few flash points. If you want to download my Manic-Crisis calendar, you can find the updated file here. 2019-07-20 01:09:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Dow Eases Back from Record, Dollar Struggles to Light Fuse, Gold Holds Its Break Posted: 19 Jul 2019 04:32 PM PDT Hits: 9 Gold Price Technical Forecast: Trading Bias to Remain Higher Gold pushed higher last week, keeping the trading bias pointed higher; may be some stop-and-go behavior but longs should have a favorable tailwind. Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100, DAX 30, FTSE 100 Technical Forecast With US stocks teetering around all-time highs, volatility derived from earnings season could see the major markets fluctuate between key areas. Here are the levels to watch. Dollar Outlook: USD 2018 Uptrend In Focus on Aussie as Yen Gains? The Dollar uptrend from 2018 still holds, near-term price action could be overshadowed by medium-term bullish signals. As USD/JPY eyes support, AUD/USD may reverse on resistance. Euro Price Chart: EUR/USD Holding Multi-year Trend Support Euro has been testing multi-year slope support since April and leaves bears vulnerable while above 1.1186. Here are the levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly chart. Crude Oil Prices Get Hit to Key Support – More Room to Fall? Oil bears got back into the driver's seat this week after supply disruptions from Tropical Storm Barry turned out to be less-than-feared. Can bears continue to drive? Australian Dollar: Is This a True Bullish Reversal? AUDUSD triggered one of the most recognizable reversal patterns in the technical scales this past week: an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. But is this a spark that can truly catch fire in otherwise difficult markets? 2019-07-21 16:00:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Australian Dollar Gains Should Hold As Markets Still Think Fed Will Cut Posted: 19 Jul 2019 03:54 PM PDT Hits: 8 Fundamental Australian Dollar Forecast: Bullish
Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar's prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page The Australian Dollar gained on its US big brother last week, a process largely but by no means solely driven by broad weakness in the latter. The prime mover, obviously, is the expectation that the Federal Reserve will shortly begin to cut interest rates once again, whether or not it opts to do so at its next scheduled monetary policy conclave on July 31. The Aussie does have some domestic support however. Australia's Jobs Miracle EnduresLabor market data released on July 18 showed an underwhelming headline net increase of just 500 jobs for June. However, there was a lot more cheer in the detail which showed an encouraging surge in full-time work as well as a steady participation rate. Investors know that the Reserve Bank of Australia places special emphasis on these numbers when it meets to set rates. The latest figures show that Australia's enviable record of strong job creation endures. Moreover there is a suspicion that, after back to back monthly rate cuts in June and July, the RBA has done all it intends to do on that front. Unless there is absolutely no sign that inflation is picking up, further cuts may be unlikely given the astonishing indebtedness of Australian consumers, understandable though it is after years of record-low borrowing costs. The coming week is likely to see continued emphasis on the 'USD' side of the AUDUSD pair, with Fed commentary at its usual premium. Domestically markets will get a look at July's timely Purchasing Managers Indexes for Australia. Two RBA Leaders Due to SpeakThere's also a speech from RBA Governor Philip Lowe due, on Thursday. Assistant Governor Christopher Kent will speak on Tuesday. It's possible that either or both of them will have something to say about the Australian Dollar's recent bounce from its 2019 lows. A resurgent currency won't be much help when it comes to juicing inflation, as it will keep the price of imports down. However, given that the underlying source of this bounce has been broad US Dollar weakness, they seem unlikely to fight it too hard. The RBA is notably pragmatic about such things. On balance then, the Aussie looks likely to continue to gain, unless the US data round puts near-term rate cuts there in doubt. It's a bullish call this week.
Australian Dollar Resources for Traders Whether you're new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There's our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There's also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they're all free. — Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch! http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Posted: 19 Jul 2019 03:16 PM PDT Hits: 8 Gold Price Technical Outlook:
Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page for intermediate-term forecasts, educational content aimed all experience levels, and more. Gold continues to look strong after multi-year wedge-breakSetting the stage for a rally last month was a massive breakout from a multi-year wedge, which put shorts on hold and longs into the spotlight. Last week, we saw a small shot higher out of a short-term bullish consolidation/wedge formation, furthering along the short-term upward trading bias. As we head into a new week, watch for gold to hold the rally from the second half of last week and stay above 1420. Price could sink a little lower than that to the developing trend-line from May, but it will be more ideal if the top of the recent consolidation pattern is held without too much of a breach. A firm decline back inside the recent wedge will need to be only brief or else further weakness, perhaps back to the breakout levels in the 1375/60, will become a significant risk. In the event of a hold above prior resistance turned support, the ride higher might not be a smooth one but should give 'would-be' buyers tradeable dips and consolidations to work with. The next area of minor resistance clocks in around a 2013 level at 1488, while the next major zone of resistance doesn't arrive until the underside of the 2011/13 topping process, around 1520/60. Looking out longer-term, the projected target based on the multi-year wedge is closer to 1700. Check out the IG Client Sentiment page to find out how changes in positioning in major markets could signal the next price move. Gold Weekly Chart (Long-term wedge-break positions for higher prices)Gold Daily Chart (stop-and-go may be the path)
Helpful Resources for Forex Traders Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex. —Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst You can follow Paul on Twitter at@PaulRobinsonFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| US Dollar Price Action Setups in EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD Posted: 19 Jul 2019 12:37 PM PDT Hits: 11 US Dollar, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD Talking Points:US Dollar Primed for Continued Volatility Ahead of July FOMCIt was a busy week across global markets and the next two weeks look to bring more of the same. While summer months were traditionally quiet period in markets, this summer is looking to be the outlier as a number of themes remain on center-stage. Next week, the European Central Bank is expected to cut interest rates by ten basis points. The week after, the FOMC is highly-expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points, and perhaps even more depending on how bleak their economic forecasts have become. This theme was in the spotlight this week as FOMC members gave a number of speeches ahead of the start of the 'blackout period.' This is the period in which FOMC members are prohibited from talking to the press ahead of a rate decision in the effort of eliminating noise of confusion, and this is what we'll have for the next week-and-a-half. On one hand it's a luxury that FOMC random drivers won't be hitting the wires as Fed member commentary is digested; but on the other, it leaves markets to their own devices as expectations around the Fed are highly volatile at the moment. This does present an element of opportunity, however, as we're likely going to see a continuation of volatility around the US Dollar. Below are two setups on either side of the currency. US Dollar Eight-Hour Price ChartChart prepared by James Stanley EUR/USD Bullish Potential with Hold Above 1.1175The Euro may be looking at the peculiar scenario of a 'rate cut rally' around next week's ECB rate decision. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates deeper into negative territory with a ten basis point adjustment. And while rate cuts are rarely drivers of strength, the simple fact of the matter is that the ECB being dovish is nothing new. As a matter of fact, the bank has been dovish for pretty much the entirety of Mario Draghi's reign atop the bank, and this is unlikely to change before he hands over control to former IMF head, Christine Lagarde. The bigger question and perhaps driver around the single currency pertains to stimulus: Is the ECB nearing another round of QE? If the ECB touches on this at their Thursday rate decision, the Euro could certainly break-down; but is this something the bank really wants to get involved with so close to a leadership change? Not to mention the fact that a number of question marks remain around the Fed and just how dovish they might be moving forward, so this could be an opportune time to wait for the chips to fall elsewhere before pre-committing to an action that a new leader is going to have to manage and maintain. From a price action perspective, EUR/USD continues to hold on to the higher-lows of the past month. This can keep the door open for topside until that changes; and if USD-weakness does show ahead of the FOMC rate decision, the topside of EUR/USD can remain as attractive, similar to what showed in late-Thursday price action around that quick rush of Dollar-weakness. EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley Bearish GBP/USD Below 1.2591That quick rush of Dollar-weakness on Friday helped a beleaguered GBP/USD further recover. The early-portion of this week saw the pair spill down to fresh two-year-lows, catching support around the 1.2400 handle. Fears of a No-Deal Brexit are back in the headlines and with the seemingly inevitable move toward Boris Johnson as the country's new Prime Minister, it looks as though this will be a negotiating chip that will not soon be removed from the table. This can keep pressure on the British Pound and if the US Dollar is heading for a scenario of strength ahead of the Fed, the short-side of GBP/USD remains as attractive. At this point, price action in GBP/USD is testing the 1.2500-handle, and if this holds through the weekly close, a quick bounce could develop around next week's open. But – provided that bounce remains below the Thursday swing-high of 1.2558 and perhaps more importantly the 1.2568-1.2591 resistance zone, the door for short-side swings can remain open. Target potential exists around 1.2442 followed by the two-year-low around 1.2400. If that price comes into play quickly, breakout-style logic could be adopted on the remainder of the position with trailed stops and quick scale-outs on the print of fresh lows. GBP/USD Two-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley USD/CAD Counter-Trend Potential on Hold Above 1.3000I talked about this one in the Thursday webinar and after a very decisive month of prior bearish price action, USD/CAD may be ripe to rip. To be sure, this has little to do with the fundamental backdrop of either the US or Canada. As a matter of fact, that's part of the reason I began looking at the short-side of the pair last month and that theme may even have potential for continuation. More pressing on a near-term basis, however, is the fact that this move appears oversold and thus far bears have shown no tolerance for a re-test of the 1.3000 psychological level. This has led to the build of a falling wedge formation, with the resistance side of that setup already being tested through earlier this morning. This type of formation will often be approached with the aim of bullish reversals and given the backdrop and proximity to support/resistance, that scenario could be attractive for next week. Initial target potential exists around 1.3132, which is a Fibonacci level that came into help form the July highs. That's approximately 70 pips away from current market prices which could allow for a better than one-to-one with stops lodged below 1.3000. Beyond that, secondary target potential exists around 1.3200, followed by the prior support zone of 1.3250-1.3300. USD/CAD Four-Hour Price Chart: Falling Wedge
Chart prepared by James Stanley AUD/USD Bullish Potential on Hold Above .7000There's another commodity currency pair presenting flip potential but this time, it's on the other side of the US Dollar. AUD/USD has been one of my favored venues for plays of USD-strength. The pair has been helped by a dovish RBA that's cut rates to record lows in Australia and when coupled with USD-strength, strong trends have shown. More recently, however, bullish price action has come back into AUD/USD and I had looked at this in the Thursday webinar. Prices have rallied up to fresh two-month highs and the door could remain open for more. A hold of support above the .7000 big figure that helped to mark this week's swing-low can open the door for bullish continuation scenarios. Target potential exists at .7085, .7125 and then the longer-term zone of resistance that runs from .7185-.7205. AUD/USD Eight-Hour Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley To read more:Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on Gold or USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator. Forex Trading Resources DailyFX offers an abundance of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you're looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we're looking at what we're looking at. If you're looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management. — Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Gold Price Rally Hits Forecast Target Posted: 19 Jul 2019 11:54 AM PDT Hits: 14 Gold Price Talking Points:
Looking for longer-term forecasts on Gold and Silver prices? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides. Earlier this week, in our gold price forecast on Monday, it was suggested that "stability in the face of adversity – an improved environment for risk appetite – bodes well for gold's future prospects." Indeed, after consolidating for the past three-weeks, gold prices were able to climb to fresh 2019 highs alongside gold volatility surging as well. The catalyst? Look no further than shifting Fed rate cut odds. Fed Rate Cut Swing Violently It's understood by market participants that both Fed funds futures and Eurodollar contracts are suggesting that the Federal Reserve will begin an aggressive interest rate cut cycle at the July Fed meeting. There is little doubt that these developments that have undergirded the most significant factor in the gold price rally since the end of May. For both Fed funds and for Eurodollars, rate expectations have swung around 10-bps from high to low this week, rather sharp moves in such a short-period of time. Overall, Fed funds are pricing in exactly a 50% chance of 75-bps of rate cuts in 2019. In turn, with short-term US Treasury yields biased lower over the past several months, the ongoing erosion in US real yields continues to serve as a fundamentally bullish backdrop for gold prices (even if prices pullback in the near-term after achieving a key Fibonacci extension level). Gold Volatility Edges Up Alongside Rate Cut Odd Volatility Gold volatility (as measured by the Cboe's gold volatility ETF, GVZ, which tracks the 1-month implied volatility of gold as derived from the GLD option chain) set a fresh yearly high set yesterday at 17.45, but has since eased back to 15.64. Earlier this week we suggested that "it stands to reason that a base is forming for higher gold prices" (more on the gold price rally to fresh all-time highs in the gold technical analysis review below). Much of these movements are tied to swings in Fed rate cut odds, which went haywire over the past 24-hours, sending the US Dollar into a whipsaw. GVZ (Gold Volatility) Technical Analysis: Daily Price Chart (October 2016 to July 2019) (Chart 1) As a measure of uncertainty, gold volatility's recent moves in July can be traced back to the uncertainty created by the US-China trade war and the resulting impact on Fed interest rates. While other asset classes don't like increased volatility (signaling greater uncertainty around cash flows, dividends, coupon payments, etc.), precious metals tend to benefit from periods of higher volatility as uncertainty increases the appeal of gold's and silver's safe haven appeal. Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (July 2018 to July 2019) (Chart 2)
In the June 24 research note, "Gold Price Hits Another 2019 High – Setup for Long-term Rally by XAU/USD," long-term bullish targets were outlined for gold prices. The first key level outlined was 1452.72, the 100% Fibonacci extension of the gold price rally from the August 2018 low, February 2019 high, and May 2019 low – that level was achieved today with gold prices hitting a fresh 2019 high at 1452.80. As a result of the 100% Fibonacci extension at 1452.72 being achieved, there now stands reason to think that a round of profit taking is possible. Reinforcing this belief that a short-term period of consolidation could emerge is the fact that the pullback in gold prices today saw a return back into the 1381.62-1439.14 sideways range that was in place since the June Fed meeting. To this end, unless gold prices lose the daily 21-EMA, a moving average that hasn't been closed below since the bullish outside engulfing bar/key reversal on May 30, then there is still good reason to believe that the long-term bullish forecast (vis-à-vis the bullish inverse head and shoulder's pattern) remains valid. IG Client Sentiment Index: Spot Gold Price Forecast (July 19, 2019) (Chart 3)
Spot gold: Retail trader data shows 70.2% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 2.36 to 1. The percentage of traders net-long is now its highest since May 28 when it traded near 1279.29. The number of traders net-long is 4.6% higher than yesterday and 5.7% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 17.5% lower than yesterday and 8.7% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests spot gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger spot gold-bearish contrarian trading bias. FX TRADING RESOURCES Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading. — Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Euro Price at Risk as Implied Volatility Spikes Ahead of ECB Posted: 19 Jul 2019 10:38 AM PDT Hits: 8 JULY ECB MEETING HIGHLIGHTSEURO CURRENCY VOLATILITY
Earlier this month, we highlighted how EURUSD implied volatility dropped to multi-year lows. Euro implied volatility is showing signs of turning higher, however, as key event risk surrounding pivots in European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy begins to unfold. According to overnight swaps pricing, it is more likely than not that the dovish turn in outlook by the ECB will be confirmed next week with the central bank teed up to cut its policy interest rate by 10 basis points. Although, if the ECB does act to ease monetary policy, it will likely spark Euro currency volatility seeing that the probability of an ECB rate cut at its July 25 meeting is near-split at 51.2% in favor of a cut with the remaining 48.8% priced for a hold. EURUSD PRICE CHART: DAILY TIME FRAME (DECEMBER 27, 2018 TO JULY 19, 2019)Spot EURUSD is estimated to fluctuate within a 182-pip range between 1.1136 and 1.1313 with a 68% statistical probability judging by EURUSD 1-week implied volatility of 5.86%. If the ECB cuts rates, spot EURUSD could be expected to make a bearish move below technical support provided by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May 2019 low from the December 2018 high, which would also threaten the recently-formed bullish uptrend line. On the other hand, a firm stance on rates and steady outlook provided by the ECB and the central bank's President Mario Draghi could keep spot EURUSD bid and reiterate the Euro's recent strength relative to the US Dollar and send the currency pair toward the 1.13 handle. EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCAD, EURAUD IMPLIED VOLATILITY CHART (1-WEEK)
EURJPY and EURAUD are expected to be the most active major Euro currency pairs over the next week with 1-week implied volatility readings of 6.59% and 6.29% respectively. EURCAD, EURUSD and EURGBP follow closely behind in order with 1-week implied volatility readings of 5.69%, 5.68% and 5.53%. All of the 1-week Euro implied volatility readings have climbed substantially since Wednesday, which reflects the potentially high-impact event risk posed by the upcoming July ECB meeting next week. — Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for real-time market insight http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
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