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| Posted: 20 Jul 2019 12:08 PM PDT Hits: 6 Gold Price Fundamental Forecast: BullishQ3 2019 Gold Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities Gold Boosted by a Variety of Positive DriversI remain bullish for gold in the short-term although current levels need to be consolidated before the next leg higher. The fundamental backdrop for the precious remains positive, with the latest boost coming from dovish commentary from NY Fed vice chair John Williams who said that the central bank should stay ahead of the curve especially if the data shows the economy weakening. While these comments were subsequently said to be from academic research, the fact that a major Fed official voiced them gives a clue into the central bank's thinking. The next FOMC meeting is at the end of July with a 25-basis point now fully priced-in while market odds of a 50bp cut have risen sharply. Gold has also been in demand from central banks over the past few weeks, China and Russia in particular, who have been diversifying away from the US dollar and the current trend for central banks to weaken their currency to gain competitiveness. With gold priced in US dollars, any weakness in the currency gives a boost to the price of the precious metal. Large swathes of the global bond market also now reside in negative yield territory, weakening currencies further and making fixed income, a traditional risk-off asset class, unattractive for investors. In addition, global tensions continue with the US-China trade dispute still unresolved, and with the US now training its sights on the EU, while the US and Iran remain at loggerheads, adding to the global risk-off trade. Against this backdrop, and with fears that equity valuations are becoming stretched, gold's safe haven status has become attractive yet again and this will continue to underpin any move higher over the short- to medium-term. How to Trade Gold: Top Gold Trading Strategies and Tips Gold Price Daily Chart (October 2018 – July 19, 2019)
The IG Client Sentiment Indicator shows traders are 63.4% net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.73 to 1. The number of traders' net-long is 0.4% higher than yesterday and 1.9% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.5% lower than yesterday and 18.5% higher from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggest Spot Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Spot Gold-bearish contrarian trading bias. Traders may be interested in two of our trading guides – Traits of Successful Traders and Top Trading Lessons – while technical analysts are likely to be interested in our latest Elliott Wave Guide. What is your view on Gold – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author at nicholas.cawley@ig.comor via Twitter @nickcawley1. http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| US Dollar May Gain if IMF Report, US GDP Data Fuels Haven Demand Posted: 20 Jul 2019 05:13 AM PDT Hits: 15 US DOLLAR FUNDAMENTAL FORECAST: BULLISH
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! The US Dollar will likely experience higher-than-usual volatility in the week ahead as the IMF prepares to publish its updated outlook for the world economy along with the release of critical US economic data. Depending on the nature of the data, if it falls in line with the fundamental trajectory of slower growth and increased risks to the financial system, the US Dollar may experience capital inflow from panicked investors. The biggest event risk for the week will likely be the release of US Q2 GDP data. The report is expected to show a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 1.8 percent which would mark the slowest pace of expansion since Q1 2017. Since February, economic data out of the US has been tending to underperform relative to economists' expectations. It would not be surprising to see GDP data fall in line with this trend. Are Economists Overestimating the Strength of the US Economy?
Note: Data shown in red indicates underperformance, blue means better-than-expected US Dollar strength may also emerge from the publication of the IMF's World Economic Outlook update, the title of which in January was "A Weakening Global Expansion". Given the trajectory of global growth and tense trade relations in developed and emerging markets, it is likely the updated outlook will carry the same pessimistic undertones outlined in January's report. Only this time, the gloom and doom may be amplified. With market participants already expecting slightly lower-than-even oddsof a 50 bp cut at the FOMC meeting in July, it leaves increasingly less room for additional dovish expectations. If GDP data undershoots and the IMF report spooks investors, the US Dollar may rise as traders shift from chasing yields to preserving capital. As such, the downward pressure of Fed rate cut bets may be overwhelmed by the desire for liquidity in uncertain times. Chart Showing US Dollar Index and Implied Federal Funds Rate for January 2020
US DOLLAR TRADING RESOURCES — Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
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