Analyst Articles – Forex News 24 |
- CAD Longs Sharply Increase, GBP Remains Bearish, JPY Shorts Build
- Euro May Resume Downtrend Price Action against Japanese Yen
- Euro Eyeing Eurozone Confidence Data Ahead of ECB Rate Decision
- China Launch of Nasdaq-Style Tech Index Fails To Impress
- Topside Targets Back on Radar as Gold Breaks Out of Holding Pattern
- Crude Oil Prices, SEK, NOK Brace for IMF Report and US GDP Data
| CAD Longs Sharply Increase, GBP Remains Bearish, JPY Shorts Build Posted: 22 Jul 2019 02:53 AM PDT Hits: 2 COT Report: Analysis and Talking Points The Predictive Power of the CoT Report Source: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers up to July 16th, released July 19th) CAD Longs Sharply Increase, GBP Remains Bearish, JPY Shorts Build – COT Update The latest CFTC positioning shows that USD selling resumed with net longs decreasing by $589mln vs G10 currencies to $16.356bln. Consequently, net long positioning against G10 currencies is at the lowest since July 2018. A sharp increase in CAD longs, which saw the largest singular move for the week of $899mln to $1.6bln. In turn, net long positioning remains at the highest since March 2018. Elsewhere, Australian Dollar positioning had been largely unchanged with net shorts decreasing slightly as speculators covered short positions. The Japanese Yen had seen the second largest weekly change with speculators raising their net short positioning in the safe-haven currency to $1.485bln following a $895mln increase. Another build in net shorts for the Pound, which increased by $233mln to $5.9bln, taking the ratio of short to long positioning to 3.16:1. GBP continues to be the largest net short across the G10 complex as Brexit uncertainty clouds the outlook. IG CLIENT SENTIMENT (RETAIL POSITIONING): USDCAD
Data shows that 57.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.35 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Jun 26 when USDCAD traded near 1.32075; price has moved 1.2% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 5.8% lower than yesterday and 16.7% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 14.6% lower than yesterday and 15.5% lower from last week. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDCAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger USDCAD-bearish contrarian trading bias.
USDCAD
KEY TRADING RESOURCES: — Written by Justin McQueen, Market Analyst To contact Justin, email him at Justin.mcqueen@ig.com Follow Justin on Twitter @JMcQueenFX
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| Euro May Resume Downtrend Price Action against Japanese Yen Posted: 22 Jul 2019 01:37 AM PDT Hits: 1 EUR/JPY Price Outlook,
See EUR and JPY guides and find out for free what is likely to move market prices through Q3 from Main Currencies and Commodities Forecasts EUR/JPY– Lower but Still TrendlessLast week EUR/JPY traded lower broking the June 21 low 120.95 however, rebounded on Friday at 120.81- its lowest level nearly seven weeks, failing to end the current sideways move . Last week the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped from 48 to 35 indicating to the sellers could be on their way to resume the downtrend momentum. Having trouble with your trading strategy? Need a hand? Here's the #1 Mistake That Traders Make EUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (April 20, 2017- JULY 22, 2019) Zoomed OutEUR/JPY DAILY PRICE CHART (DEC 27, 2016 – JULY 22, 2019) Zoomed in
Looking at the daily chart we notice on Wednesday EUR/JPY moved to a lower trading zone 119.78 – 121.25 then on Friday, the price tested the high-end of the zone however failed to close above. If EUR/JPY remains trading below the high-end of the aforementioned trading zone, this could embolden the sellers to put an end for the current trendless move and press the price towards the low -end of the zone however, the weekly support zone highlighted on the chart (Zoomed in) should be monitored. In turn, the sideways move may continue if the buyers succeed in leading the pair to close above the high-end. This mean the price may rally towards 122.52 nonetheless, the weekly resistance levels marked on the chart (zoomed in) should be watched along the way. Just getting started?See our Beginners' Guide for FX traders EUR/JPY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (June 26 – JULY 22, 2019)
Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice on Friday EUR/JPY rebounded nearby the July 18 low at 120.78. Currently, the pair eyes the neckline of a double bottom hence, if the price breaks and remains above 121.28 this suggest a possible rally towards 121.77. Its worth noting that a break above 121.50 may lead the price towards the July 15 high at 121.85 however, the July 16 high at 121.68 needs to be considered. On the other hand, a break below the July 18 low at 120.78 could send the price towards 120.30 although, the weekly support at 120.50 should be kept in focus. Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi 2019-07-22 08:30:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Euro Eyeing Eurozone Confidence Data Ahead of ECB Rate Decision Posted: 21 Jul 2019 11:36 PM PDT Hits: 7 EURO, EUROZONE CONFIDENCE DATA, ECB RATE DECISION– TALKING POINTS
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! Euro traders will be closely watching the release of Eurozone confidence data ahead of this week's ECB rate decision. Volatility may be relatively low upon the release as investors are probably feeling hesitant in committing capital prior to the central bank's decision and outlook. The utility in the data lies in the fact that a worsened or at-forecast print will say a lot about consumers' outlook and the impact it may have on growth. When consumers are more optimistic about the future, their spending habits become more aggressive because they believe the purchases they make will not put them in a financially precarious place. However, if confidence is low due to a gloomy outlook ahead, purchasers may curtail their spending in anticipation of hard times ahead and may favor a higher saving-to-spending ratio. Likely by no sheer coincidence, Eurozone year-on-year retail sales data is now at its weakest point since January, and consumer confidence is currently pegged at -7.2. The ECB has acknowledged that risks and inflation have been tilted to the downside in light of Brexit and slower global growth against the backdrop of the US-China trade war. Overnight index swaps are pricing in a 49 percent probability of a cut this week. This is drastically increased to a 91 percent chance of a cut by the September meeting. Sign up for our live webinar covering the ECB rate decision! EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSISAfter briefly touching resistance at 1.1275 (yellow dotted line), EURUSD subsequently retreated and is now timidly hovering above 18-month former-resistance-turned-support (red channel). Barring any sudden major developments, EURUSD may not make any major moves until the ECB rate decision. The fundamental outlook suggests the pair will capitulate and trade below the channel and the ECB may be the catalyst for it. CHART OF THE DAY: EURUSD CAPITULATION MAY HINGE ON ECB RATE DECISION, OUTLOOK EURSUD TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| China Launch of Nasdaq-Style Tech Index Fails To Impress Posted: 21 Jul 2019 10:24 PM PDT Hits: 8 Asia Pacific Stocks Talking Points
Find out what retail foreign exchange investors make of your favorite currency's chances right now at the DailyFX Sentiment Page Monday's launch of a Nasdaq-style tech-stock index in Shanghai wasn't enough to lift Asia Pacific equity spirits. The Science and Technology Innovation Board or 'STAR Market' encompasses 25 listings and is reportedly aimed at addressing investors worries over governance and volatility. Still, on a quiet day for economic data, the markets' main focus was Friday's Wall Street session. That saw broad losses despite a reasonable slew of corporate earnings. The capture of a British-flagged oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by Iran last week has stoked some risk aversion, but the story seems not to have moved on much in Monday's session. Abe's Party wins majority in Japan's Upper HouseJapanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Liberal Democratic party maintained a majority in last weekend's upper house elections. However, it fell short of the supermajority needed to alter the pacifist constitution which Abe would like to do. There were reported hopes that with elections out of the way, Tokyo will be able to focus on its long running political and historical disputes with South Korea The Nikkei 225 was down 0.3%, with Shanghai's Composite off by 0.6%. Australia's ASX 200 reversed initial gains which were largely driven by the gold and energy sectors. It was down by 0.3% as its close approached. US Dollar Gets Risk Off SupportThe US Dollar was well supported as investors looked ahead to this week's crucial US growth data. USDJPY crept back into the trading range which has been important since late May. That said it doesn't look very comfortable there and the bulls have yet to take the pair back above the psychologically important 108.00 handle. This week promises some major economic news. That US growth data is of course out in front, but the European Central Bank's monetary policy is coming up too. There's not much left on Monday's schedule though, with Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's speech in Washington the likely highlight. Asian Stocks Resources for TradersWhether you're new to trading or an old hand DailyFX has plenty of resources to help you. There's our trading sentiment indicator which shows you live how IG clients are positioned right now. We also hold educational and analytical webinars and offer trading guides, with one specifically aimed at those new to foreign exchange markets. There's also a Bitcoin guide. Be sure to make the most of them all. They were written by our seasoned trading experts and they're all free. — Written by David Cottle, DailyFX Research Follow David on Twitter@DavidCottleFX or use the Comments section below to get in touch! http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Topside Targets Back on Radar as Gold Breaks Out of Holding Pattern Posted: 21 Jul 2019 07:11 PM PDT Hits: 11 Gold Price Talking PointsThe price of gold pulls back from a fresh yearly high ($1453) after breaking out of a short-term holding pattern, but current market conditions may keep gold prices afloat as market participants look to hedge against fiat currencies. Topside Targets Back on Radar as Gold Breaks Out of Holding PatternThe price of gold carves a fresh series of higher highs and lows as talks between US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchinand Chinese officials yield little signs of an imminent trade deal, and the precious metal may stage a larger advance ahead of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on July 31 as the central bank comes under increased pressure to alter monetary policy. It seems as though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will shift gears as Chairman Jerome Powelllargelyendorses a dovish forward guidance, and the central bank may show a greater willingness to reverse the four rate hikes from 2018 as President Donald Trump tweets that "the Fed raised far too fast & too early." In turn, Fed Fund futures continue to show a 100% probability for at least a 25bp rate cut at the end of this month, but it seems as though market participants are bracing for a more accommodative stance as the benchmark interest rate is seen falling towards the 1.50% to 1.75% threshold in December. It remains to be seen if Chairman Powell and Co. will establish a rate easing cycle as Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren, a 2019-voting member on the FOMC, insists that the "the economy's doing actually quite well" and argues that the "we don't need accommodation" as incoming data shows little signs of a looming recession. With that said, the FOMC may vote for an "insurance cut" as the US and China struggle to reach a trade deal, but gold prices may continue to benefit from the current environment, and market participants may persistently look for an alternative to fiat-currencies amid the threat of a currency war. In turn, gold prices may exhibit a more bullish behavior over the coming days, with the precious metal at risk of extending the advance from the monthly-low ($1382) as it breaks out of a triangle/wedge formation. Sign up and join DailyFX Currency Strategist David Song LIVE for an opportunity to discuss potential trade setups. Gold Price Daily Chart
For more in-depth analysis, check out the 3Q 2019 Forecast for Gold Additional Trading ResourcesAre you looking to improve your trading approach? Review the 'Traits of a Successful Trader' series on how to effectively use leverage along with other best practices that any trader can follow. Want to know what other currency pairs the DailyFX team is watching? Download and review the Top Trading Opportunities for 2019. — Written by David Song, Currency Strategist Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong. 2019-07-22 02:00:00 Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
| Crude Oil Prices, SEK, NOK Brace for IMF Report and US GDP Data Posted: 21 Jul 2019 05:56 PM PDT Hits: 13 NORDIC FX, NOK, SEK WEEKLY OUTLOOK
See our free guide to learn how to use economic news in your trading strategy! US GDP DATA, IMF REPORT MAY KINDLE RISK AVERSION AND WEIGH ON NORDIC FXSwedish Krona and Norwegian Krone traders will be in a for a volatile week ahead of the release of critical economic data and high-impact political developments. US GDP data for Q2 will be published with expectations the economy grew 1.8 percent, the slowest rate of expansion since the first quarter of 2017. Since February, economic news out of the US has been tending to underperform relative to economists' estimates. Furthermore, a slew of other critical reports will be released which may either mitigate or compound the market impact of GDP data. Other reports will include durable goods orders and personal consumptionhousing data. The former may act as a proverbial canary in the coal mine insofar that may give insight on how consumers feel about the future. Why buy a house before a downturn? RED, WHITE AND BLUE…BUT MOSTLY RED Note: Data shown in red indicates underperformance, blue means better-than-expected Markets will also be eyeing the publication of the IMF's World Economic Outlook update, which in January was titled "A Weakening Global Expansion". Escalating trade tensions were cited as a key source behind the uncertainty clouding the outlook for world growth. Rising protectionism and the effect of political contagion appears to now be impacting the developing world with the rise of inter-emerging market trade wars. Want to learn more? See my guide on understanding how politics affects markets – and how to trade it! HANDLING THE DIVORCE PAPERS: THERESA MAY TO ANNOUNCE HER REPLACEMENTOn July 22, UK Prime Minister Theresa May will be announcing her replacement. Her successor is anticipated to be former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, though his ascension to the post looks like it will be paved with great difficulty. A number senior ministers have threatened to resign if he is elected as a result of their disagreement with Johnson's willingness to go through with a no-deal Brexit. The notable MPs who have threatened to resign are Chancellor of the Exchequer Phillip Hammond and Justice Secretary David Gauke. This comes amid news from The Times that the European Commission is looking into delivering Ireland a multi-billion Pound aid package as a way to mitigate the potential economic damage from a no-deal Brexit. EU leaders are perceiving that the likelihood of a no-deal outcome is growing increasingly likely in part due to Johnson demanding unrealistic concessions that the European bloc is not ready to deliver. The uncertainty around the situation will likely continue to dampen sentiment around the world and more specifically in Europe. Riksbank officials continue to cite Brexit as one of the biggest risks facing the Swedish economy. TENSION IN IRAN ESCALATES AS UK TANKER IS SEIZED BY REVOLUTIONARY GUARDOn Friday, crude oil prices edged higher after new broke that Iran's Revolutionary Guard had seized a tanker bearing the flag of the UK in the Strait of Hormuz. UK Prime Minister – soon to be former – will be holding an emergency meeting on July 22 to discuss security concerns for other UK vessels traversing through the critical choke point. Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has stated the UK plans to implement measures this week but did not provide specific details. This followed a threat from the government that Iran faces "serious consequences", though other officials sought to dial down the rhetoric. Tensions between Tehran and the West have significantly escalated since Washington reimposed crippling sanctions against Iran. Follow me on Twitter @ZabelinDimitri to learn more about how politics affects markets! ECB RATE DECISION: HOW LOW CAN YOU GO?This week, the ECB will announce its rate decision and outlook for European growth. Overnight index swaps at the time of writing are showing a 49.1 percent market expectation that the central bank will cut rates, though this spikes in September where the implied probability is over 90 percent. In addition to rate cuts, President Mario Draghi also alluded to reintroducing QE if the economic conditions warrant it. As Sweden's and Norway's largest export partner, what happens in Europe – politically and economically – is of great concern for the Nordics. Waning demand out of the EU continues to weigh on the exports of outward-facing economies that rely on healthy European growth. A rate cut or dovish commentary may hurt EURSEK in the short run, but the longer-term outlook suggests EURSEK may strengthen amid risk aversion. SWEDISH DATA DUMP: VOLATILITY AHEAD FOR SEK CROSSESAs export-driven economies, the Swedish Krona and Norwegian Krone are sensitive to changes in risk appetite. NOK in particular is vulnerable to this threat because of Norway's heavy reliance on the petroleum industry to support its economic growth. While crude oil prices have fallen, they remain well above Norway's break-even point which offers the central bank the luxury to remain hawkish as its peers turn dovish. On July 25, a slew Swedish economic data will be published that will likely cause some short-term volatility in SEK crosses. Some of the notable reports include the economic tendency survey, manufacturing confidence, consumer confidence, the unemployment rate and household lending. The latter may become a more heavily-watched indicator due to Sweden's growing household debt and vulnerability to an economic downturn. Riksbank policymakers have acknowledged alarming levels of debt in the country and have cited the need to introduce macroprudential policy measures to address it. Relative to the size of its economy, Sweden has one of the largest financial markets in the world – even bigger than Switzerland's. A financial meltdown in Sweden could ripple out into the Nordic and Baltic states and eventually make its way to Europe. Tick, Tick, Tick…
SWEDISH KRONA, NORWEGIAN KRONE TRADING RESOURCES— Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter http://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js Can you get moneyed from fx trading? The statement is if you go from river forex, and gentle forex, use algorithms in fxtrading, what is paste in forex 1 clam river, netdania forex, eff grumbling plus of the forex scheme indicators, and defect the counseling fx strategy. We module win win all.  |
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