Forex analysis review |
- Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 19
- July 18, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
- GBP/USD. July 18th. Results of the day. An unexpected statement by Michel Barnier resurrected the pound
- EUR/USD. July 18th. Results of the day. European Central Bank prepares to lower rates and resume QE
- EUR/USD: ECB rumors, Mnuchin's refutation, and Italy again
- July 18, 2019 : EUR/USD maintains short-term bearish outlook below 1.1235.
- What will the Fed do and why the Australian dollar is growing
- The fall of the euro: does the ECB hit a recumbent?
- USDCAD challenges long-term lower channel boundary
- GBP and EUR: Great Britain will be able to avoid a recession, but the last word will come from the deal on Brexit. The ECB
- EURUSD rejected at 1.1250 resistance
- Gold price back tests break out area
- EUR/USD for July 18,2019 - Selling climax in the background. rally possible
- GBP/USD: plan for the American session on July 18. Retail sales helped pound buyers to return to the market
- EUR/USD: plan for the American session on July 18. Bears did not wait for the sea weather and returned to the market
- GBP/USD: Barnier's statements inspired the pound, but Johnson's victory may result in early general elections
- Yellow metal at the peak of demand – WGC
- Gold 07.18.2019 - Rejection of the key resistance at $1.430, focus on the downside
- Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 18, 2019
- Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 18, 2019
- BTC 07.18.2019 - Potenteial new momentum down is on the way
- Analysis of BITCOIN for July 18, 2019: BTC struggling for gains below $10,000
- CAD is trading in a range, JPY remains the market leader
- The period of uncertainty in the markets will continue until the Fed meeting at the rates (We expect continued growth of
- Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (July 18)
| Fractal analysis of major currency pairs on July 19 Posted: 18 Jul 2019 06:19 PM PDT Forecast for July 19: Analytical review of H1-scale currency pairs: For the euro / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.1342, 1.1299, 1.1286, 1.1249, 1.1236, 1.1217, 1.1197 and 1.1169. Here, we follow the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of July 17. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 1.1286 - 1.1299. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 1.1342, and near this level, we expect consolidation. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of 1.1249 - 1.1236. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 1.1217. This level is a key support for the top. Its price will have to develop the downward structure. In this case, the first goal is 1.1197. The main trend is the formation of the initial conditions for the upward cycle of July 17. Trading recommendations: Buy 1.1286 Take profit: 1.1297 Buy 1.1301 Take profit: 1.1340 Sell: 1.1249 Take profit: 1.1237 Sell: 1.1234 Take profit: 1.1218 For the pound / dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.2691, 1.2623, 1.2598, 1.2568, 1.2515, 1.2492 and 1.2447. Here, we consider the ascending structure of July 17th as a large initial condition. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 1.2568. In this case, the goal is 1.2598. Short-term upward movement, as well as consolidation is in the range of 1.2598 - 1.2623. The breakdown of the level of 1.2623 should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the potential target is 1.2691. From this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 1.2515 - 1.2492. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.2447. This level is a key support for the upward structure of July 12. The main trend - the formation of the ascending structure of July 17. Trading recommendations: Buy: 1.2568 Take profit: 1.2598 Buy: 1.2600 Take profit: 1.2622 Sell: 1.2515 Take profit: 1.2493 Sell: 1.2490 Take profit: 1.2450 For the dollar / franc pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 0.9902, 0.9881, 0.9858, 0.9841, 0.9798, 0.9779, 0.9745 and 0.9731. Here, the next targets for the downward movement we determined from the local structure on July 17th. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 0.9798 - 0.9779. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 0.9745. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 0.9731. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as rollback to the top. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 0.9841 - 0.9858. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to in-depth correction. Here, the goal is 0.9881. This level is a key support for the downward structure. The main trend is the local downward structure of July 17. Trading recommendations: Buy : 0.9841 Take profit: 0.9856 Buy : 0.9860 Take profit: 0.9880 Sell: 0.9798 Take profit: 0.9780 Sell: 0.9776 Take profit: 0.9747 For the dollar / yen pair, the key levels on the scale are : 108.12, 107.84, 107.62, 106.98, 106.68, 106.27 and 106.01. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of July 10th. Short-term downward movement is expected in the range of 106.98 - 106.68. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. In this case, the goal is 106.27. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 106.01. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top. Short-term upward trend is possible in the range of 107.62 - 107.84. The breakdown of the last value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 108.12. This level is a key support for the bottom. Its breakdown will have to form an upward trend. Here, the first potential target is 108.42. The main trend: the downward structure of July 10. Trading recommendations: Buy: 107.62 Take profit: 107.82 Buy : 107.85 Take profit: 108.12 Sell: 106.96 Take profit: 106.70 Sell: 106.66 Take profit: 106.27 For the Canadian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 1.3105, 1.3070, 1.3050, 1.3016, 1.3001, 1.2964 and 1.2937. Here, we are following the development of the downward structure of July 9th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the price passes the noise range 1.3016 - 1.3001. In this case, the target is 1.2964. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 1.2937. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 1.3050 - 1.3070. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 1.3105. This level is a key support for the bottom. The main trend - the downward structure of July 9. Trading recommendations: Buy: 1.3050 Take profit: 1.3070 Buy : 1.3072 Take profit: 1.3105 Sell: 1.3000 Take profit: 1.2965 Sell: 1.2962 Take profit: 1.2938 For the Australian dollar / US dollar pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 0.7145, 0.7111, 0.7101, 0.7085, 0.7050, 0.7036, 0.7015 and 0.6995. Here, the subsequent targets for the top we determined from the local ascending structure on July 17. The continuation of the movement to the top is expected after the breakdown of the level of 0.7085. In this case, the goal is 0.7101, and near this level is a price consolidation. The passing through the noise range of 0.7101 - 0.7111 will lead to a pronounced movement. Here, the potential target is 0.7145. From this level, we expect a rollback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement is possible in the range of of 0.7050 - 0.7036. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the target is 0.7015. This level is a key support for the upward structure of July 17. The main trend is the ascending structure of July 10, the local structure for the top of July 17. Trading recommendations: Buy: 0.7085 Take profit: 0.7101 Buy: 0.7111 Take profit: 0.7145 Sell : 0.7050 Take profit : 0.7036 Sell: 0.7034 Take profit: 0.7017 For the euro / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are: 121.66, 121.35, 121.18, 120.92, 120.62, 120.48, 120.14 and 119.91. Here, we continue to monitor the downward structure of July 10th. The continuation of the movement to the bottom is expected after the breakdown of the level of 120.90. In this case, the target is 120.62. Price consolidation is in the range of 120.62 - 120.48. The breakdown of the level of 120.46 should be accompanied by a pronounced downward movement. Here, the goal is 120.14. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 119.91. After reaching which, we expect a rollback to the top. Short-term upward movement is possible in the range of 121.18 - 121.35. The breakdown of the latter value will lead to a prolonged correction. Here, the goal is 121.66. This level is a key support for the downward structure. The main trend - the downward structure of July 10. Trading recommendations: Buy: 121.18 Take profit: 121.33 Buy: 121.37 Take profit: 121.66 Sell: 120.90 Take profit: 120.62 Sell: 120.46 Take profit: 120.14 For the pound / yen pair, the key levels on the H1 scale are : 135.63, 135.40, 135.04, 134.79, 134.38, 134.15, 133.81 and 133.44. Here, the price forms the expressed initial conditions for the top of July 18th. Short-term movement to the top is expected in the range of 134.79 - 135.04. The breakdown of the last value should be accompanied by a pronounced upward movement. Here, the target is 135.40. For the potential value for the top, we consider the level of 135.63. After reaching which, we expect consolidation, as well as a rollback to the bottom. Short-term downward movement, perhaps in the range of 134.38 - 134.15. The breakdown of the latter value will have to develop a downward trend. Here, the goal is 133.81. For the potential value for the bottom, we consider the level of 133.44. The main trend is the downward cycle of July 9, the formation of potential for the top of July 18. Trading recommendations: Buy: 134.80 Take profit: 135.02 Buy: 135.06 Take profit: 135.40 Sell: 134.38 Take profit: 134.17 Sell: 134.12 Take profit: 133.81 The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| July 18, 2019 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations. Posted: 18 Jul 2019 09:18 AM PDT
Since May 17, the previous downside movement within the depicted bearish channel came to a pause allowing the recent sideway consolidation range to be established between 1.2750 - 1.2550 with a prominent key-level around 1.2650. In June , temporary bullish consolidation patterns were demonstrated above 1.2650 for a few trading sessions. However, the price level of 1.2750 (consolidation range upper limit) has prevented further bullish advancement few times so far. Moreover, signs of bearish rejection have been manifested (Head & Shoulders reversal pattern with neckline located around 1.2650). Bearish breakdown below 1.2650 (reversal pattern neckline) confirmed the reversal pattern with bearish projection target located at 1.2550, 1.2510 and 1.2450. Intermediate-term technical outlook remains under bearish pressure as long as the market keeps moving below 1.2650 (mid-range key-level and neckline of the reversal pattern). Moreover, the recent Bearish breakdown below 1.2570 - 1.2550 (the lower limit of the depicted consolidation range) confirms a trend reversal into bearish on the short-term. On the other hand, the recent bullish pullback towards 1.2550-1.2570 was recommended as a valid SELL opportunity for Intraday traders. All bearish Target levels have already been reached. Recently, quick bearish decline was expected to occur towards 1.2450-1.2400 (the lower limit of the current movement channel) where recent bullish rejection and a bullish pullback was initiated. Further bullish advancement was demonstrated towards the depicted price zone 1.2480-1.2500 (61.8% - 50% Fibonacci levels) where bearish pressure is expected to be demonstrated. However, any bullish breakout above 1.2500 (61.8% Fibonacci level) enhances further bullish pullback towards the backside of the broken consolidation range (1.2550) where another valid SELL entry will probably be offered. Trade Recommendations: Conservative traders can wait for a pullback towards the backside of the broken consolidation range (1.2550) for a valid SELL Entry. T/P levels to be located around 1.2480 and 1.2430. S/L should be placed above 1.2590. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 18 Jul 2019 09:03 AM PDT 4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days(high-low): 74p – 60p – 67p – 125p – 75p. The average amplitude over the last 5 days: 80P(81p). The British pound is finally able to breathe more or less freely after a report on retail sales in the UK in July showed an increase and was higher than the forecast values, which predicted another decline. Also, support for the British currency was provided by the speech of Michel Barnier, chief negotiator for Brexit from the European Union, in which he said that the EU is open to an alternative proposal for the Northern Ireland border. But this point is very indicative, from our point of view. The pound sterling is growing again on rumors. That is, by and large, Barnier only gave hope to the market that London and Brussels will still be able to agree, and then the pound began to be in demand. Last year and at the beginning of this year, the pound has repeatedly shown growth solely on the expectations of traders, on the expectations of the imminent completion of the entire Brexit procedure, on the expectations of the adoption of the "deal" and each time hopes were not justified, the British currency then fell even lower. What did Barnier essentially say? Only that the EU is still willing to consider an alternative plan for the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. This does not mean that the terms of the agreement reached with Theresa May will be revised, that this proposal will be approved by the EU countries, the European Commission and the European Parliament. That is, in fact, nothing has changed in the Brexit procedure at the moment, only a new information branch has appeared, which can now also be monitored, since the Forex market reacts to it. Now, we are waiting for the statements of Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt regarding the possible alternative on the most fundamental issue. Trading recommendations: The pound/dollar currency pair continues its upward correction. Thus, traders are advised to wait until it is completed and re-trade down with the targets at 1.2400 and 1.2391, if the pair rebounds from the line Kijun-Sen. It will be possible to buy the British currency after the reverse consolidation of the pair above the Kijun-Sen line, which will lead to a change of trend to an upward one. Targets – Senkou Span B line and the level of 1.2621, the minimum lots. In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release. Explanation of illustration: Ichimoku Indicator: Tenkan-Sen – red line. Kijun-Sen – blue line. Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line. Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line. Chinkou Span – green line. Bollinger Bands Indicator: 3 yellow lines. MACD Indicator: A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD. July 18th. Results of the day. European Central Bank prepares to lower rates and resume QE Posted: 18 Jul 2019 09:03 AM PDT 4-hour timeframe The amplitude of the last 5 days (high-low): 41p – 37p – 31p – 62p – 34p. Average amplitude over the last 5 days: 41p (47p). From a technical point of view, the downward movement of the EUR/USD pair is absolutely logical. The price has fulfilled the critical Kijun-Sen line, and as the bulls remain extremely weak, the pendulum has outweighed the bears. It so happened that this event coincided with the hit in the media and online publications information that the ECB as well as the Fed, is preparing to reduce the key rate. The only difference is that monetary policy will be eased, most likely in September. But the European Central Bank can reduce the rate by 0.5% at once, to a historic low. Many experts believe that in July (25th), Mario Draghi will give a specific signal to the market that the rate will be lowered. Thus, at the end of his term of office, Draghi is preparing for a very decisive action regarding monetary policy. The main reason for the reduction of the key rate lies, of course, in the lower rates of economic growth and GDP, as well as in weak inflation, which is much lower than the target level of the ECB. Moreover, there is talk among traders that the ECB can go to the resumption of the QE program and will again begin to buy up assets, flooding the economy with freshly printed money. The question is, will it happen during Mario Draghi's reign or already under Christine Lagarde? Anyway, this is another factor that can put pressure on the euro in the long term. As you can see, the Fed is preparing to lower the rate, the ECB is preparing to lower the rate and resume the program of quantitative easing. The Fed will lower the rate from 2.5%, the ECB – from 0.0%. Low inflation in the EU is 1.3%, in the States – 1.6%. Wherever you throw, everywhere America feels much better than Europe, which can be a defining moment in the prospects of the euro/dollar pair. Trading recommendations: The EUR/USD pair completed an upward correction near the Kijun-Sen line. Thus, sales of the euro currency with targets at 1.1175 and 1.1157 are now relevant. We recommend buying the euro/dollar pair not earlier than fixing the price above the critical line with the first target of 1.1306, but with the minimum lots, as the bulls remain extremely weak. In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release. Explanation of illustration: Ichimoku Indicator: Tenkan-Sen – red line. Kijun-Sen – blue line. Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line. Senkou Span B – light purple dotted line. Chinkou Span – green line. Bollinger Bands Indicator: 3 yellow lines. MACD Indicator: A red line and a histogram with white bars in the indicator window. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD: ECB rumors, Mnuchin's refutation, and Italy again Posted: 18 Jul 2019 09:03 AM PDT The euro/dollar pair cannot determine the vector of its movement. The weakness of the European currency pulls the price down to the borders of the 11th figure, but the uncertainty of traders in the development of further dollar rally does not allow the EUR/USD bears to identify new price horizons. In general, the fundamental picture is not in favor of the euro, especially in light of the rumors published today about the possible actions of the ECB. At the same time, the dollar also cannot gain universal support against the background of incomprehensible prospects for US-China relations, as well as against the background of possible actions of the White House regarding the overvalued greenback. In the end, the pair is forced to trade in a flat, although the general trend is directed toward reducing the price of EUR/USD. However, to consolidate the pair within the 11th figure, bears need a strong information occasion. At the moment, the fundamental background of the pair is very controversial.
Let's start with the problems of the single currency. Actually, traders have not learned anything new today – the information published by Bloomberg once again reminded investors that they need to prepare for the easing of monetary policy on the part of the ECB. According to insider information, the members of the European regulator are ready at the July meeting to update the ECB's mandate on inflation. According to rumors, the Central Bank will revise (reduce) the target inflation level, which is now "slightly below" two percent in the medium term. The euro/dollar pair, which this morning rose almost to the middle of the 12th figure, reacted instantly, falling by 45 points. After all, the information that the ECB can revise its inflation target is a warning signal for traders. Such a step will create conditions for a long period (longer than the market assumes) of application of incentive programs. Although this is just a rumor, traders "believed" them, hurrying to get rid of the euro. However, not only macroeconomics puts pressure on the single currency. Today, Italy reminded of itself again, where political passions have been boiling for several weeks. And if earlier, the foreign exchange market ignored these events (reasonably considering it a local conflict), today's statement by Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio (leader of the "5-star movement") sent a signal to a possible political crisis in the country. He accused his coalition partners – the League party – of provoking the collapse of the coalition government. In turn, the leader of the "League" Matteo Salvini allowed the possibility of early elections, putting forward similar accusations towards his colleagues. The fact is that the two leading parties of Italy have faced serious disagreements regarding the election of German Ursula von der Leyen to the post of head of the European Commission. According to preliminary agreements, representatives of both parties had to vote for her candidacy in the European Parliament. However, members of the "League" in the end, voted against it. With a minimum margin (only 9 votes) Leyen took her post, but this situation has exacerbated the conflict between the members of the Italian coalition. Traders fear that if it really comes to early elections, the wave of anti-European sentiment in Italy will come to power more radical eurosceptics, which will only strengthen the political conflict between Rome and Brussels. Although the likelihood of the "Italexit" is small enough, the next political confrontation may have a negative impact on the dynamics of growth of the European economy, which is experiencing not the best times. All of the above fundamental factors quite reasonably pull EUR/USD down to the borders of the 11th figure. But as soon as today, the pair approached the level of 1.1205, the southern momentum faded and the price actually returned to the opening level. This happened for several reasons. First, the dollar reacted strongly to the comments of the Minister of Finance of the USA Steven Mnuchin, which denied the rumors about the intentions of the White House to devalue the dollar. Perhaps the dollar bulls were confused by the very wording of this refutation. Mnuchin said that "at the moment" there is no change in the policy of a strong dollar, although this issue may be considered in the future. In other words, although the Minister denied such intentions in the short term, he did not rule them out in the future. Such rhetoric remains uncertain about the dollar's prospects, especially if the Fed at its July meeting takes a less "dovish" position than the market expects. In addition, yesterday in the United States, quite disappointing macroeconomic data were published. The number of issued permits for housing construction decreased by 6% in June-this is the worst result in the last two years. This indicator is an important leading indicator of the health of the real estate market (and the economy as a whole), so such a weak dynamics suspended the growth of the dollar throughout the market.
Thus, both the dollar and the euro continue to be under pressure of their own fundamental problems. The single currency in this confrontation looks, of course, weaker – but due to the lack of powerful info drivers, EUR/USD bears cannot develop a full-scale downward movement to the main support level of 1.1100. Therefore, the pair will continue to hang out in the flat in the near future, trading in the range of 1.1160-1.1280 (the lower and middle lines of the Bollinger Bands indicator on D1, respectively). The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| July 18, 2019 : EUR/USD maintains short-term bearish outlook below 1.1235. Posted: 18 Jul 2019 08:37 AM PDT
Back in June, Temporary Bullish breakout above 1.1335 was demonstrated (suggesting a high probability bullish continuation pattern). However, the EURUSD looked overbought around 1.1400 facing a confluence of supply levels. Thus, a bearish movement was initiated towards 1.1275 followed by a deeper bearish decline towards 1.1235 (the lower limit of the newly-established bullish channel) which failed to provide enough bullish support for the EUR/USD. Recent bearish breakdown below 1.1235 invited further bearish momentum to move towards 1.1175. However, significant bullish momentum was earlier demonstrated around 1.1200 bringing the EUR/USD pair again above 1.1235. That's why, the recent bullish pullback was expected to pursue towards the price zone around 1.1275 where a confluence of resistance/supply levels came to meet the pair. A recent double-top Bearish pattern was demonstrated around the price zone of 1.1275 where a valid Intraday SELL position was suggested in previous articles. Recent Bearish breakdown of the pattern neckline around (1.1235) confirms the short-term trend reversal into bearish towards 1.1175. The recent bullish pullback towards the depicted key zone around 1.1235 was suggested be considered as a valid SELL entry. Fortunately, evident bearish rejection (bearish engulfing H4 candlestick) was recently expressed around 1.1235. This supports the suggested bearish trade which is running in profits. On the other hand, any bullish breakout above (1.1235-1.1250) should be watched as it brings the EUR/USD pair again between depicted price-zones (1.1235-1.1275) until another breakout attempt is demonstrated in either directions (More probably to the downside). Trade recommendations : For Intraday traders, a valid SELL entry can be offered at retesting of the broken neckline around 1.1235. Initial Target levels to be located around 1.1200 and 1.1175. Stop Loss should be placed above 1.1260. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| What will the Fed do and why the Australian dollar is growing Posted: 18 Jul 2019 08:10 AM PDT The dollar is falling steadily against the basket of major currencies on the second day against the background of weak data on US Treasury bonds and the housing sector. Now, investors are likely to estimate the Fed's interest rate cut for the first time in a decade. Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut dominate the money markets, and some investors forecast a 50 basis point cut. It is expected that by the end of the year the Fed will cut a total of almost 75 basis points. "We certainly see that both from the Fed and the ECB, there are more specific signals regarding policy easing, the question is how much the Fed will cut the rate next week," – Commerzbank said. Morgan Stanley notes that the overall outlook for risky assets remains bearish due to disappointing earnings reports in the US and weak prospects for world trade. "All this gives good reasons for the fact that the Fed will consider the possibility of reducing the rate by 50 b.p. at the end of this month," the note to customers said, adding that a 50-point reduction would sharply weaken the dollar, especially against high-yield currencies. Despite rising expectations of lower interest rates in the US, the euro is stuck in a narrow trading range around $ 1.12, while investors expect the ECB to go for the Fed. Currently, the probability of a rate cut of 10 basis points next week is 50%. The weakness of the dollar pushed other currencies. The Australian dollar led the growth thanks to a positive report on jobs. Unemployment remained stable at 5.2% for the third month in a row. The Australian dollar rose 0.3% to 0.7031 dollars. At the same time, the rate of part-time employment in June fell from 8.6% to 8.2%. The underemployment rate has a higher correlation with interest rate and wages than the unemployment rate, and is likely to push the Australian even higher. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| The fall of the euro: does the ECB hit a recumbent? Posted: 18 Jul 2019 08:10 AM PDT On Thursday, July 18, the European currency experienced a sharp decline amid the latest news about a possible revision of the inflation target. The information came from the European Central Bank (ECB), whose head, Mario Draghi, announced a potential reduction in interest rates if the current situation does not improve. The dynamics of the euro after M. Draghi's reports deteriorated significantly: experts recorded a drop to $11204 compared to $11230 a day earlier. The EUR/USD pair fell 0.2% from the closing level on Wednesday. This week, the European currency fell by 0.6%, losing the growth of last week. The head of the ECB was supported by Benoit Coeure, member of the regulator's board. He said on Wednesday that in order to preserve the economic balance, the decision voiced by M. Draghi is quite realizable. The revision of the inflation target is possible within the next few months, B. Coeure confirmed. The change in the inflation target of the ECB contributes to the depreciation of the euro against the US currency and reduce bond yields, analysts say. The current situation creates prerequisites for the long-term use of stimulating monetary programs of the regulator. Their successful completion in the short term remains questionable. Experts warn potential buyers of the euro about the risks and recommend to monitor the further actions of the European regulator.  |
| USDCAD challenges long-term lower channel boundary Posted: 18 Jul 2019 07:15 AM PDT USDCAD at 1.3030 has challenged the lower boundary of its long-term upward sloping channel from September of 2017 lows. Price has the potential to stage a bullish reversal especially if price breaks above 1.3140.
The decline from 1.3550 could already be over. Price has reached the lower channel boundary and is showing reversal signs as support levels at 1.30 are being respected. Short-term resistance is found at 1.31 and next at 1.3150. Breaking above these two levels will increase the chances of a bullish reversal in medium-term trend. At 1.3225 we find the first important medium-term target if the reversal is confirmed. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 18 Jul 2019 07:15 AM PDT GBPUSD The pound managed to continue its upward correction, which has been observed since yesterday. More than good data on the growth of retail sales in the UK returned to the market even pessimistic traders on bullish growth. The report, which was published today, indicated a sharp increase in retail sales after a decline for two consecutive months. Such data, though it does not affect the slowing UK economy in the 2nd quarter of this year, will avoid an impending recession. However, much, of course, will depend on Brexit and the scenarios under which it will develop. According to official data, in June this year, retail sales increased by 1.0% compared to May. The largest growth was achieved by sales of clothing and footwear. As for the three-month reporting period, sales increased by 0.7% from April to June. However, as noted above, the problems with the UK's withdrawal from the EU remain quite serious, and the postponement of the break-in trade relations from March 29 to October 31, in fact, only complicates everything. This was also mentioned today in the report on the management of fiscal responsibility in the UK, where it was pointed out that a high probability of an annual recession in the case of Brexit without an agreement. In this scenario, GDP will fall by 2.1%. Additional damage to tax revenues is also predicted in the case of the most severe Brexit scenario. The office also noted that to maintain the UK economy in a more or less normal position, additional borrowing of 30 billion pounds a year would be required. As for the technical picture of the pair GBPUSD, the further growth of the pound is unlikely to continue as the trading instrument approaches the highs around 1.2520 and 1.2560. In the area of these levels, bears, putting on the toughest scenario for Brexit and the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, will show themselves most actively, and this will be done in order to keep the current downward trend, formed on June 25 this year. EURUSD The European currency in the absence of important fundamental statistics declined in the morning after the news that the European Central Bank may revise the inflation target. Such messages appeared on Bloomberg Television. Let me remind you that the current target level of inflation now stands at a little less than 2%. It is not surprising that the euro failed in this news, as many traders and economists expect stimulus measures from the European regulator, which it can announce at its next meeting on monetary policy. There are also rumors on the market that the ECB will adjust its statement following the July meeting and announce that in the coming months it may need to reduce interest rates – and this is a very bad sign for the euro and further growth prospects. With this development of the situation, it is possible to lay on a medium-term decline of the EURUSD trading instrument in the area of 1.1000 and 1.0900 levels. As for the current short-term picture, a large support level of 1.1190 remains, and its breakthrough will lead to a further bearish trend and a test of the lows of 1.1130 and 1.1070. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EURUSD rejected at 1.1250 resistance Posted: 18 Jul 2019 07:11 AM PDT EURUSD tried to bounce of the 1.12 support area towards the critical 1.1250 resistance. Price reached 1.1244 but got sharply rejected and price fell back towards 1.12. So far support remains intact. Bulls need to recapture 1.1250 in order to hope for a move towards 1.1350-1.14.
Black line -resistance trend lines Green line -support trend line Green area - horizontal support area EURUSD is trading above crucial support. Bulls need to take out 1.1250 resistance area in order to challenge the major resistance area of 1.1280. Inability to break above 1.1250 will eventually lead to a break of 1.12 and a push lower towards 1.10. Support is crucial at 1.12-1.1180. Also keep a close eye on the RSI and its black trend line. A break above the trend line would imply more strength is coming for EURUSD. Staying below the black trend line will result in bears retaining control of the trend. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Gold price back tests break out area Posted: 18 Jul 2019 07:06 AM PDT Gold price after it broke above the short-term resistance of $1,415-20 has reached $1,430 and is now back testing the break out area around $1,420. Failure to stay above the break out level will be a bearish sign and a sign of a false break out.
Yellow rectangle - major resistance and double top Black line -resistance trend line Red rectangle - support area Gold price has managed to break above short-term resistance area and above the black downward sloping trend line resistance. Price made a new short-term high but still below the 2019 highs of $1,440. Price is now back testing the black trend line resistance that is broken. A bounce of this trend line would be a bullish sign and a confirmation of the breakout. Failure to stay above it and break back below $1,410 would not be good news for bulls. Bears on the other hand want to see price reverse and break below the $1,400 low. Until then there are more chances of an upward continuation. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| EUR/USD for July 18,2019 - Selling climax in the background. rally possible Posted: 18 Jul 2019 06:33 AM PDT EUR did trade lower in past few hours and we got flush down into the support at the price of 1.1200. Anyway, since the drop happened very fast, in my opinion there is potential for recover up. You should watch for buying opportunities since the EUR is trading near the support levels at the price of 1.1200 and 1.1193. Industry news: -European Central Bank staff have begun studying a potential revamp of their inflation goal, according to officials familiar with the matter, in a move that could embolden policy makers to pursue monetary stimulus for longer. The staff is informally analyzing the institution's policy approach, including the question of whether the current target of consumer-price growth "below, but close to, 2%" is still appropriate for the post-crisis era. Technical picture:
On the hourly time-frame I found that EUR found support at the lower Bollinger band (second standard deviation) and there is chance that EUR may start to rally going into the US session. Also, I found strong selling climax in the background and sideways movement immediately after that, which is key clue for me that downside, is very limited. Watch for potential buying opportunities with the targets at 1.1240 and 1.1254. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 18 Jul 2019 06:26 AM PDT To open long positions on GBP/USD, you need: A strong report on retail sales in the UK, which indicated an increase of 1.0% in June this year compared to May, led to an increase in the pound in the morning and a change in the technical picture. At the moment, the bulls need to stay above the support of 1.2472, which was recently formed, which will give strength to the upward momentum and will lead to an update of the highs in the area of 1.2514 and 1.2561, where I recommend taking the profits. In the scenario of a pound decline below this level, it is best to return to long positions on the rebound from the low of the day around 1.2431. To open short positions on GBP/USD, you need: The bears will try to return to the support of 1.2472, which will lead to the closure of a number of long positions that were opened against the background of a good report on retail sales in the UK, and accordingly to the correction of the pair to the support area of 1.2431, where I recommend taking the profit. If the demand for the pound continues in the second half of the day, it is best to return to the short positions on the rebound from the large resistance of 1.2514. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates the preservation of the upward momentum after the data. Bollinger Bands If the pound falls in the second half of the day, the support will be provided by the average border of the indicator around 1.2447.
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| Posted: 18 Jul 2019 06:26 AM PDT To open long positions on EURUSD, you need: Buyers did not cope with the morning task and missed the support level of 1.1227, which left hope for the continuation of the upward correction. In the second half of the day, most likely, the bulls will try to return to 1.1227, and only after that, it will be possible to count on the second wave of growth in the area of the maximum of 1.1261, where I recommend taking the profits. If the pressure on the euro continues, which is quite likely, it is best to look at long positions from the lows of the month in the area of 1.1195, provided a false breakdown, or buy immediately on the rebound from the support of 1.1167. To open short positions on EURUSD, you need: Bears have coped with the task, which I talked about in more detail in the morning review, and now they will try to prevent the return of EUR/USD to the resistance level of 1.1227. This will allow continuing the downward trend, and the first goal in the afternoon will be the minimum in the area of 1.1195, the breakthrough of which will only increase the pressure on the euro and lead to an update of the support of 1.167, where I recommend taking the profit. In the scenario of EUR/USD return to the level of 1.1227, it is best to return to short positions on the rebound from the maximum of 1.1261. Indicator signals: Moving Averages Trading is conducted in the area of 30 and 50 moving averages, which indicates market uncertainty, but the advantage remains on the side of sellers. Bollinger Bands The breakthrough of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1210 can form a new downward wave in the pair.
Description of indicators
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| Posted: 18 Jul 2019 06:26 AM PDT
The GBP/USD pair rebounded from the 27-month lows after the words of the chief Brexit negotiator from the European Union Michel Barnier that the alliance is open to discuss the status of the Irish border. "This should send the pound sterling up if there is a change of tone on the part of the EU, and these comments suggest the potential for more flexibility," Mizuho Bank said. "The British currency has been under strong pressure since Theresa May announced her decision to leave the post of leader of the Conservative Party. In the eyes of investors, this event increased the likelihood of implementing a "hard" Brexit", – strategists at Morgan Stanley noted. According to them, this scenario is the worst: if the UK leaves the EU without an agreement, the GBP/USD will fall in the range of 1.00-1.10. In November last year, the Bank of England admitted that in case of disordered exit of the Foggy Albion from the block, the pound could fall to parity against the US dollar. Now, the focus is on the next question – who will eventually take the seat of Prime Minister of Great Britain and will ensure the country's exit from the EU until October 31? Meanwhile, political uncertainty in the United Kingdom threatens to persist longer than one would hope. Since the most likely scenario is the victory of Boris Johnson in the struggle for the post of head of the Cabinet of Ministers, his talks with Brussels may soon become one of the hottest news topics. However, his actions in the domestic political arena will be no less significant for the British currency, and here, the pound should be expected to have trouble. According to The Times, B. Johnson's team is working to initiate early general elections in the country, although the politician himself had previously rejected this possibility. Apparently, the situation in the British Parliament was not the best. Given the statements of B. Johnson on the readiness to withdraw the state from the EU at any cost, a number of deputies will be ready to go against him to prevent the implementation of the "hard" scenario. Therefore, it is in B. Johnson's interest to hold early elections. Recent data from sociological studies suggest that the sooner this is done, the more likely the tories to strengthen their positions. However, this development of events means the further preservation of uncertainty, and the pound in such conditions will be difficult to strengthen its position. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Yellow metal at the peak of demand – WGC Posted: 18 Jul 2019 06:26 AM PDT
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), published last week, the most significant inflow of investors in the yellow metal was recorded in the ETF sector. Along with this, the growth in demand for precious metals was noted by the leading central banks. Last month, the gold reserves of ETF-funds increased by 127 tons, up to 2548 tons. Against the background of the price rally, capital inflows in ETF stocks rose by 15% to $ 115.4 billion, which is the maximum since 2012. The largest cash inflow was observed from the USA (51%) and from Europe (47%). The rest is in Asia (1.7%) and other countries (0.3%). In the first half of 2019, the net flow of gold into ETF funds reached 107.5 tons. Shares of the "gold" ETF from the UK were very popular among investors. Experts explain the growing demand for gold in the UK by a number of reasons: the uncertainty regarding Brexit, geopolitical risks, the potential reduction in interest rates from the Fed. According to the WGC, there is currently a boom in demand for gold on the part of world regulators. In the first half of 2019, the volume of total gold reserves of the leading central banks increased by 36 tons, which is 27% less than the previous month. The volume of net purchases of precious metals by the Central Bank amounted to 247.3 tons, which is 73% more than in the same period of 2018. Experts point out a number of countries whose central banks are especially actively increasing their gold reserves. First of all, they include the Central Bank of Russia (over 75 tons), the People's Bank of China (over 60 tons) and the Central Bank of Turkey (about 50 tons). Experts believe that such a strategy of leading regulators should demonstrate to private investors the special significance of gold reserves. The yellow metal has the most important function of preserving savings in the long term, unlike national currencies, which are subject to inflation and other risks, experts remind. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Gold 07.18.2019 - Rejection of the key resistance at $1.430, focus on the downside Posted: 18 Jul 2019 06:07 AM PDT The Gold didn't have enough power to break the swing high at $1.430 and there was strong reaction from sellers, which is sign for me that buyers got very exhausted there. Since there is the fake breakout of the swing high in the background, my focus is on downside. Short-term support levels are set at the price of $1.407 and $1.401. Industry news: The diffusion index for current general activity more than recovered from its decline last month, increasing from 0.3 in June to 21.8 this month (see Chart 1). The indexes for current shipments and new orders also improved this month: The current new orders index increased 11 points, while the shipments index increased 8 points. Technical picture:
On the hourly time-frame I found that there is a bearish divergence on the % Bollinger oscillator, which is sign of the weakness. Also, strong rejection of the resistance at $1.430 is another good sign that sellers are in control and that further downside is possible. Additionally, I found that there is the Bollinger squeeze (narrowing bands range) and the successful breakout of the lower band. My advice is to watch for selling opportunities. The downward targets are set at the price of $1.407 and $1.401. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis of AUD/USD for July 18, 2019 Posted: 18 Jul 2019 05:58 AM PDT The AUD/USD pair is set above strong support at the levels of 0.6876 and 0.6810. This support has been rejected four times confirming the uptrend. The major support is seen at the level of 0.6810, because the trend is still showing strength above it. Accordingly, the pair is still in the uptrend in the area of 0.6810 and 0.6876. The AUD/USD pair is trading in the bullish trend from the last support line of 0.6876 towards thae first resistance level of 0.6937 in order to test it. This is confirmed by the RSI indicator signaling that we are still in the bullish trending market. Now, the pair is likely to begin an ascending movement to the point of 0.6937 and further to the level of 0.7005. The level of 0.7005 will act as the major resistance and the double top is already set at the point of 0.7005. At the same time, if there is a breakout at the support level 0.6810, this scenario may be invalidated. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Technical analysis of USD/CHF for July 18, 2019 Posted: 18 Jul 2019 05:54 AM PDT The USD/CHF pair fell sharply from the level of 0.9854 towards 0.9694. Now, the price is set at 0.9748. The resistance is seen at the level of 0.9854 and 0.9928. Moreover, the price area of 0.9854 and 0.9928 remains a significant resistance zone. Therefore, there is a possibility that the USD/CHF pair will move downside and the structure of a fall does not look corrective. The trend is still below the 100 EMA for that the bearish outlook remains the same as long as the 100 EMA is headed to the downside. Thus, amid the previous events, the price is still moving between the levels of 0.9770 and 0.9694. If the USD/CHF pair fails to break through the resistance level of 0.9770, the market will decline further to 0.9694 as as the first target. This would suggest a bearish market because the RSI indicator is still in a negative spot and does not show any trend-reversal signs. The pair is expected to drop lower towards at least 0.9632 so as to test the daily support 2. On the other hand, if a breakout takes place at the resistance level of 0.9854, then this scenario may become invalidated. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| BTC 07.18.2019 - Potenteial new momentum down is on the way Posted: 18 Jul 2019 05:46 AM PDT Industry news: The G7 group of nations has warned that cryptocurrencies such as Facebook's Libra are a threat to global financial stability.A task force set up by the G7 to examine the issues said that rules of the "highest" standards are needed to minimize the use of digital currencies in money laundering and funding terrorism, Reuters reportsThursday. Following a meeting of finance chiefs from the G7 in Chantilly, France, this week, the group also said it would address tax issues raised by the digital economy, as per a draft summary of the meeting obtained by Reuters. Technical view:
BTC did trade exactly what I expected yesterday. BTC did test and reject of the important resistance at the price of $10.000 (red rectangle), which is for me sign of the weakness on the BTC. Additionally, I found that there is the bear divergence on the %Bollinger oscillator, which is another sign that sellers are in control. The trend is down and you should watch for selling opportunities. Downward targets are set at the price of $9.062 and at the price of $8.182. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Analysis of BITCOIN for July 18, 2019: BTC struggling for gains below $10,000 Posted: 18 Jul 2019 03:46 AM PDT Bitcoin is making a correctional decline below $10,000. The price is unable to push above it being held by the dynamic levels as support. According to some media reports, governments and regulators are planning to eliminate cryptocurrencies and bitcoin because of their decentralization and anonymity of end-users. Bitcoin is currently making double-digit losses, sliding 24.6% week-to-date. The US government is scrutinizing Libra and Bitcoin. The US authorities claim their use should be supervised as Libra is specifically a threat to the US national security. So, commentators view this as an attempt to eliminate cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's downward pressure has already sent its price decisively below $10,000, which appears to have marked the end of the long period of bullish momentum that Bitcoin has enjoyed over the past several weeks. Although the drop below $10,000 is certainly negative for Bitcoin's bulls, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency is still trading significantly up over a three-month period, as it is currently up from lows of $5,000, which were set in late April. TECHNICAL OVERVIEW: The price is currently being held by the dynamic levels like 20 EMA, Tenkan and Kijun line as support. At the same time, it is contained by Kumo Cloud as resistance slightly below $10,000. The price is currently moving higher making corrections along the way. The Chikou Span moved above the price line that indicates a further upward move. However, it is still indecisive as the price remains below $10,000 with a daily close. TECHNICAL LEVELS: SUPPORT: 8,500, 9,000, 9,500 RESISTANCE: 10,000, 10,500, 11,000, 11,500, 12,000 BIAS: Bullish MOMENTUM: Volatile
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| CAD is trading in a range, JPY remains the market leader Posted: 18 Jul 2019 02:50 AM PDT Complacency from the proposed Fed rate hike on July 31 may not have the expected effect. The threat of trade wars objectively contributes to the strengthening of the dollar since the economies of the main US trading partners look weak. The dollar bears the burden of the main world currency, so if the Central Bank of Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China are aimed at easing financial conditions, then in order to stop the strengthening of the dollar under these conditions, you need to pursue your own incentive policy much more actively, and by reducing the rate The situation is not correct. If the Central Bank of Europe, Japan, the United Kingdom, and China are aimed at easing financial conditions, the dollar bears the burden of the main world currency. Then in order to stop the strengthening of the dollar under these conditions, you need to pursue your own incentive policy much more actively and by reducing the rate as the situation is not correct. Corporate incomes are unlikely to increase significantly after reducing the rate by 0.25%, tax reform allowed to raise corporate profits after 2.5 years of stagnation, however, the dynamics of the negative quarter and stock indices have exhausted their sources of growth. Then in order to stop the strengthening of the dollar under these conditions, you need to pursue your own incentive policy much more actively and by reducing the rate as the situation is not correct. According to Mizuho, the US stock market is highly overvalued compared to fundamental indicators and is at risk of serious correction, so in order to keep the indices at current levels. Companies need to offer something more than a one-time reduction in the rate. Thus, the Fed meeting on July 31 may lead to the fact that the markets will react with the dollar growth and market expectations on the rate will be adjusted in favor of another one or even two cuts in the current year. USD/CAD pair The report on inflation in June, published by the Bank of Canada on Wednesday, turned out to be negative for loonies. The core inflation showed zero growth as the figure dropped from 2.1% to 2.0% on an annualized basis instead of the expected growth to 2.6%. Growing inflation, combined with a consistently high level of oil prices, supported the Canadians for two months. However, both factors seem to be losing their influence. Oil prices fell to the lows of July, which was largely supported by statistics from the US Department of Energy, a sharp increase in gasoline and distillate stocks is occurring against the background of a steady decline in demand from refineries, which may indicate a reduction in consumption. Also, quotes were lowered by reports of possible negotiations between the US and Iran, which helps to relieve tension. Thus, loonies lost the growth momentum and went to the side range. Today, data on employment in the private sector from ADP will be published then retail sales on Friday. However, they are unlikely to be able to bring the Canadian out of the trading range. The USD/CAD pair found support at 1.3020, which confirms the previous forecast. But for its passage, we need weighty arguments but are not yet available. The Resistance level of 1.3092 looks less stable in light of the growing demand for the dollar before the FOMC meeting. USD/JPY pair Almost a year has passed since the Bank of Japan took measures to stimulate the economy, linking two fundamental indicators into a single program. On the one hand, BoJ began a program of "quantitative and qualitative mitigation" (QQE), which was reduced to large-scale purchases of government bonds. Then, when the measures taken failed to produce results, the Bank supplemented the QQE program with an attempt to "control the yield curve" (YCC), which was supposed to stimulate lending. This ensures the gap between short-term interest rates when banks borrow and when they lend for long-term. These measures were primarily aimed at supporting production and trade balance. Is there a result? It is more likely a no than yes. The latest report of the Ministry of Finance of Japan for June recorded a decline in exports by 6.7% y/y, imports by 5.2% y/y. Japan does not have much room to maneuver. The trade war between the United States and China did not bring the expected dividends to the Japanese economy but it largely stimulates the demand for the yen. In the near future, the yen remains the favorite against the dollar and a test of the support at 107.53 with an eye to 106.77 is likely. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
| Posted: 18 Jul 2019 02:12 AM PDT Incoming ambiguous data from US economic statistics continue to have a significant impact on the markets. They are also echoed by ambiguous statements by Fed officials, including its leader, Jerome Powell. Published economic data show the absence of some directional certainty, which would allow investors to understand what can we expect in the future from the monetary policy of the American regulator. In the past few months, production figures generally indicate a decrease in activity, while at the same time there has been a stabilization of inflationary pressure and even a slight increase in it over the last month. An extremely ambiguous situation is taking shape in the labor market, but at the same time, everything indicates that new jobs are growing in low-wage segments of the economy. Earlier, Powell pointed out certain difficulties and uncertainties in the prospects for growth of the national economy, as well as tensions in trade relations between the United States and China. But it seems that he, himself, is not ready to definitely say something about what the central bank will do in the present conditions. His vague statements, as well as the multidirectional comments of his Fed colleagues, indicate only that the regulator himself does not know what to do in such a delicate situation that history has not remembered for the past several decades. As for market sentiment, they are slowly beginning to show a decrease in expectations for the start of a full-scale decline in interest rates. Today, the federal funds' rates show the likelihood of a reduction in the key interest rate by 0.25% at 61.0%, following a two-day meeting on July 30-31. Two weeks ago, they showed a value above 90% but at the same time, oddly enough, the expectations of lowering the rates immediately increased by 0.50% to 39% from a mark below 20% two weeks ago. It seems that these sentiments can catch up by July 30. Of course, such a state of uncertainty affects the behavior of the US dollar, which nervously decreases. Then, on the contrary, it rises relative to the major currencies in the wake of the Fed's monetary policy uncertainty factor. This also fully influences the behavior of the local government bond market. The benchmark yield of 10-year-old treasuries has been consolidating for a month in the range of 1.95% -2.15%. This fully confirms our ideas that the main reaction of the market, which is likely to be only based on the results of the Fed meeting and time will tell whether there will be surprises. Today we should pay attention to the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England, as well as the publication of data on retail sales in Britain and the index of business activity from the US Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Forecast of the day: The AUD/USD pair found support at 0.7000. Overcoming the level of 0.7040 and fixing above it will lead to an increase in prices to 0.7100. The NZD/USD pair is confidently trading above the mark of 0.6715. We believe that it retains the potential for local growth to 0.6800.  |
| Trading recommendations for the EURUSD currency pair - placement of trading orders (July 18) Posted: 18 Jul 2019 01:51 AM PDT For the previous trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed low volatility, 33 points. As a result, the pivot point was kept, forming a pullback from it. From the point of view of technical analysis, we see that a rapid descent led us to the area of the level 1.1180, where, by regularity, the quotation felt a support and as a fact, slowed down and turned around. As discussed in the previous review, traders working on the movement began to insure themselves on July 16, fixing the previously received profit in case of a rebound, and, as a fact, were not mistaken. Considering the trading chart in general terms (daily timeframe), we see that the levels 1.1180 - 1.1100 retain the global downward trend and the entire focus of attention is focused on them. The news background of the previous day had statistics on inflation in Europe, where, as expected, the freezes were in place, but were accelerated from 1.2% to 1.3%. There is published data on the construction sector in the United States, but here, we have a decline. The number of building permits issued in June decreased from 1,299M to 1,220M, with a forecast of 1,300M. The volume of construction of new homes also shows a decline, from 1.265M to 1.253M. Thus, the pivot point was supported not only by the pressure of buyers, but also by the news background. Moving on to the information background, here, as discussed in the previous review, there are worries about the divorce process. The new European Commission President for Ursula von der Leyen said that she was ready to revise the release date from October 31 to a later date if there are objective reasons. In an interview with Sky News, Ursula von der Leyen noted: "I do not see Brexit as the completion of something, it is a starting point for building a new relationship between the European Union and the United Kingdom. That is why we must be especially careful with each other. Brexit in any case is very difficult, therefore, in the presence of objective reasons, the extension and postponement of Brexit's time must be permissible. We must do everything possible to prevent hard Brexit. " On the part of England, these steps for revising dates are not so relevant, since in the statements of Boris Johnson, we have repeatedly heard that it was most desirable to leave the EU on October 31 in any outcome. Today, in terms of the economic calendar, we have data on initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States, where growth is expected from 209K to 216K. Further development Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the quotation has already reached the previously passed support in the form of a periodic level of 1.1245. It is likely to assume a temporary freeze in the range of 1.1230 / 1.1255, where it is possible to expect a regrouping of trading forces and the placement of future deals. Based on the available information, it is possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider: - Positions for the purchase are considered yesterday from the value of 1.1225, now it is progressing with profit taking. - Positions for sale are paused. Possible consideration will go after a clear stop. Indicator Analysis Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF), we see that indicators in the short term are variable in nature, currently signaling a sale. Intraday perspective turned upside down due to the correction. The medium-term perspective takes the downward side against the background of a general descent. Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year. (July 18 was based on the time of publication of the article) The current time volatility is 21 points. In case of completion of the correction there may be a temporary stagnation, thus the volatility will be low. Key levels Zones of resistance: 1.1300 **; 1.1450; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100. Support areas: 1.1180 *; 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1.0850 **. * Periodic level ** Range Level *** Psychological level **** The article is based on the principle of conducting a transaction, with daily adjustment. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com |
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